A
decommissioned inquiry on Myanmar By Simon Roughneen
When United Nations
human-rights rapporteur Tomas Ojea Quintana
recommended that the UN consider the establishment
of a Commission of Inquiry (COI) into alleged
crimes against humanity committed by the country’s
military rulers, the proposal was widely supported
by Western countries, including the United States,
that maintained economic sanctions against the
country.
Depending on the proposed
commission's findings, Myanmar's former ruling
generals and current governing ex-generals could
some day be tried in some form of international
tribunal or at the International Criminal Court.
The proposed COI would determine whether or not
charges should be brought against Myanmar's rulers
and would likely focus on the Myanmar army's
well-documented abuses in the ethnic
minority-populated borderland regions.
The
establishment of a COI seemed a remote possibility
at the
outset, given that UN Security
Council unanimity would likely be needed to
authorize it. China and Russia have vetoed past
motions against Myanmar. However, Myanmar's recent
reforms - including the establishment of a
domestic human-rights commission - and a growing
Western desire to engage with Myanmar's nominally
civilian government, means that realpolitik will
likely trump any purely legal basis for a COI.
David Clair Williams, a law scholar at
Indiana University who has testified at US
congressional hearings on Myanmar, told Asia Times
Online that "a COI should be all about guilt or
innocence in the past, not reform now, and the
integrity of international law and justice for the
victims demand that they be tried and punished -
even if [Myanmar] were to become wholly free and
democratic tomorrow."
Elections held in
November 2010 saw a landslide win for the Union
Solidarity and Development Party, a political
front for the military, in a poll dismissed by
Western governments as fraudulent and where the
main foreign observation work on the day was led
by the North Korean Embassy.
Subsequently,
a civilian administration was formed in March
2011, albeit one comprising only four non-army
ministers out of a total of 30, and headed by
President Thein Sein, a former general and prime
minister under the outgoing military junta. A
decree budget announced after the elections and
two months before the government was inaugurated
allocated 25% of annual spending to the army.
Thein Sein surprised many observers with
his reforms, including a relaxation of some of the
world's strictest censorship, new allowances for
citizens to stage public demonstrations and form
unions, as well as the release of some of the
country's hundreds of political prisoners.
In turn, recent months have seen a
procession of high-profile international
diplomatic visitors to Myanmar, with US Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton being the
highest-profile. Her arrival was followed by
visits from her British counterpart, William
Hague, last week and in between by
financier-speculator George Soros, a long-time
funder of exiled Myanmar opposition groups.
Despite the recent reforms and exchanges,
Myanmar is still far from a functioning democracy.
In retrospect, the army devised budget was
partially aimed at waging war against Kachin
insurgents in the north - a continuation of the
type of conflicts that warranted Quintana's
suggestion that a COI be established.
Power struggle There are now
rumors of a behind-the-scenes tussle between
hardliners and reformers inside the government,
with a swing constituency of fence-sitters waiting
to back whoever appears to have the upper hand,
according to leaked US Embassy cables dating from
the pre-reform era.
Hints that this
internal struggle continues came as recently as
last week with a January 4 Independence Day speech
by President Thein Sein extolling the military and
channeling ghostlike the speeches of past
dictators. Over 200 political prisoners were freed
last October, but last week another prisoner
amnesty saw only 34 political detainees released,
leaving anywhere between 500 and 1,500 still in
jail.
With the threat of backsliding still
looming large - de facto opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi said last week that the army could yet
derail Myanmar's nascent reforms - some observers
say that it is important to encourage Thein Sein's
reform process and not play into the hands of
hardliners by pushing for the creation of a COI.
Assessing the situation, Williams said
that "the promise of warmer relations with the
West is apparently working to cause flickers of
progress. The threat of a COI might thus undercut
progress. So, yes, I think that the international
community is likely to put it on the back burner
for now."
Aung San Suu Kyi - another
beneficiary of reforms in that her previously
banned National League for Democracy party will
run in upcoming by-elections set for April - said
in June 2011 that she supported the establishment
of a COI. But both Clinton's and Hague's visits
have seen an apparent retreat from those
countries' previous strong support for the COI.
During Hague's visit last week, a
spokesperson for the Foreign and Commonwealth
Office told Asia Times Online by e-mail, "We share
concerns over continuing human-rights abuses in
[Myanmar], and we have consistently pushed for the
strongest resolutions possible on human rights in
[Myanmar] at the UN General Assembly.
"The
last resolution was arguably the strongest yet,
and passed with a record majority. We agree that
mechanisms must be found to deliver a credible
response to allegations of human-rights abuses in
[Myanmar], and a Commission of Inquiry would be
one means of achieving this goal."
During
her early December 2011 visit to Myanmar, Clinton
signaled to the Myanmar government that the COI
would be shelved in the hope that Myanmar's
reforms would include "an internal mechanism
accountability".
She said that the US
wanted "to give the new government and the
opposition a chance to demonstrate they have their
own approach." In an e-mail to Asia Times Online,
a US State Department spokesperson confirmed that
Clinton's stance remained the US position.
But exiled Myanmar opposition groups and
human-rights organizations are unlikely to drop
the issue, which optimists believe might be raised
in future if Myanmar ever has a functioning
democratic government with some form of peaceful
settlement in ethnic regions.
Whether
there can be "peace without justice", as in
countries such as South Africa, Sierra Leone and
the former Yugoslavia, where either truth
commissions or war crimes trials or both were used
to dispense justice and play a part in
post-conflict political transitions, is still
unclear.
That said, other places such as
Northern Ireland have not gone down the
transitional justice path, leaving it a moot point
for now whether Myanmar will ultimately have to
"exhume the ghosts of the past and consolidate a
democratic future", as academic Williams puts it.
Simon Roughneen is a foreign
correspondent. His website is
www.simonroughneen.com.
(Copyright
2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights
reserved. Please contact us about sales,
syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road,
Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
