Longest rebellion reaches tentative
peace By Brian McCartan
MAE SOT, Thailand - A ceasefire agreement
announced between the rebel Karen National Union
(KNU) and Myanmar's government is a first step
towards the potential end of the world's
longest-running insurgency. While numerous
previous ceasefires with insurgent groups have failed to accomplish
lasting political solutions, hopes are high
President Thein Sein's administration will take a
more sincere approach towards solving the
country's unresolved ethnic questions.
KNU
and government representatives agreed to the
ceasefire at a meeting in the Karen State capital
of Pa'an on January 12. The
19-member KNU delegation was
led by KNLA commander General Mu Tu Sae Po with a
mix of political and military representatives from
across Karen areas. Railways Minister Aung Min,
Thein Sein's chief ceasefire negotiator, led the
government team. KNU and government
representatives met three times in informal
discussions during 2011 before the formal Pa'an
talks.
Both sides agreed to halt fighting
and engage in closer communications to prevent
future clashes. As part of the agreement, the KNU
is allowed to open liaison offices in designated
towns. Both sides have also agreed to coordinate
on future development programs and state
expenditures in Karen State. Additionally, KNU
members will be allowed unrestricted, unarmed
travel within the Karen State.
A halt in
hostilities is an important first step but much
more will need to be agreed to before the Karen
will be willing to hand over their arms and join
mainstream politics. KNU representatives said they
plan to take the process step by step. The current
signed agreement is only at the state level and
discussions will need to be continued at the
national level before major changes can be
implemented. The Karen population extends far
beyond the boundaries of Karen State, with large
populations in the country's Ayeyarwady Division,
Bago Division, Mon State and Tanintharyi Division.
The KNU first began its armed struggle on
January 31, 1949, soon after the country then
known as Burma achieved independence from colonial
rule. In the 63 interceding years, unknown
thousands of Karen have been killed, forced to
flee their villages and live in the jungle and
taken flight to refugee camps in neighboring
Thailand. Many have resettled to third countries,
especially in the US and Europe.
In future
discussions KNU officials will aim to address such
issues as education, health, landmines,
improvements in the livelihoods of villagers,
rehabilitation, and the impact of the continued
heavy presence of Myanmar Army units in Karen
State, according to people familiar with the
negotiations. Myanmar soldiers have been
frequently accused by human-rights groups of gross
rights violations, including extrajudicial
killings, torture, forced labor and extortion.
Another major area of discussion will
entail international development in Karen areas.
Thailand, in particular, has shown keen interest
in agro-business prospects in the area and the
creation of special economic zones. There are also
issues regarding government commissioned mining
projects and hydroelectric dam projects which if
implemented as planned could have disastrous
effects on the environment and Karen livelihoods
and culture.
Future discussions are
expected to focus on the construction of a
deep-sea port at Dawei in southern Myanmar. A
highway planned to link the port with Thailand
runs through territory controlled by the KNU and
the group has recently blocked construction. The
US$50 billion project is scheduled to become
Southeast Asia's largest industrial estate,
linking the Andaman Sea with the Gulf of Thailand
and transportation networks to China.
Thailand is already gearing up for the
likely economic expansion that peace with the KNU
will bring. Should ceasefires with the rebel KNU,
Shan State Army-South and Karenni National
Progressive Party hold, it will mark the first
time in over 60 years that the Thai-Myanmar border
has been at peace. A construction boom is already
underway in the Thai border town of Mae Sot, with
new hotels mushrooming and businessmen positioning
themselves for increased border trade.
The
ceasefire should also help to alleviate the
humanitarian crisis in many areas of eastern
Myanmar as well as provide enough stability to
rehabilitate conflict-ravaged villages.
Negotiations for a more lasting peace settlement
should allow for better access to humanitarian aid
for the large internally displaced population,
especially in northern Karen State. Improved
stability would also in theory allow for the
return of relocated villagers to their home
villages and the economic development of a largely
underdeveloped region of the country.
Many
areas of Karen State, especially near the border,
remain heavily mined and would require extensive
demining before villagers could resume farming
their fields in safety. The landmine issue will
feature prominently in future talks and must be
addressed comprehensively before any substantial
repatriation of Karen takes place.
Failed deals Significantly,
this is not the first time the KNU has agreed to a
ceasefire agreement. The last time was the
2004-2006 ''Gentleman's Agreement'' after a
meeting between former prime minister Khin Nyunt
and long-time Karen leader General Saw Bo Mya. In
the field, however, Karen National Liberation Army
(KNLA) officers complained that Myanmar army units
continued to operate much as before and were even
stockpiling supplies and sending reinforcements.
Following the arrest of Khin Nyunt in
November 2004, government negotiators became more
intransigent and negotiations collapsed soon after
Karen fears were realized when army units began
offensive operations in northern Karen State in
late 2006. The collapse of this agreement as well
as other negotiations before it in 1949, 1963 and
1995-1996 only reinforced the impression among
many Karen that military-led regimes could not be
trusted at the negotiation table.
However,
with an apparently reformist and less
military-oriented government now in power, there
is some hope that the new agreement will be
different. One major distinction during the recent
negotiations was that the government did not
demand the KNU hand over their weapons as a
precondition for talks, nor did it dictate the
terms of the talks. Instead, government
negotiators accepted - in principle - an 11-point
program presented by the KNU for future
discussion.
The KNU ceasefire is the
latest in a rash of agreements in recent months
between the central government and ethnic
insurgents. The United Wa State Army and the
National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) agreed to
new ceasefire arrangements in September 2011.
After preliminary negotiations, a ceasefire was
signed with the Shan State Army-South (SSA-S) in
December. This was followed by an agreement with
the Chin National Front (CNF) on January 4 of this
year.
A marked difference in the current
flurry of peace talks is that the government is
making signed ceasefire agreements with each of
the armed ethnic groups. Previous agreements were
made orally, except for the 1994 agreement with
the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO). New
agreements have been signed with the UWSA and the
NDAA at each of three completed steps of the
negotiating process.
Other ceasefires now
seem imminent. The New Mon State Party (NMSP),
whose ceasefire agreement with the government
lapsed when it refused to join a junta-sponsored
program to convert the military wings of ceasefire
insurgent groups into an army-controlled Border
Guard Force, has recently said it will begin
holding talks later this month. The Karenni
National Progressive Party (KNPP) is also
reportedly set to begin talks this week. The Shan
State Army-North (SSA-N) and the Pa-O National
Liberation Organization (PNLO), meanwhile, are
also reportedly in talks.
This leaves only
the KIO in ongoing hostilities with the
government. Ironically, the Kachin was earlier the
only group to have a signed ceasefire with the
government, agreed in 1994, while other ceasefires
were based on verbal agreements. The KIO's
ceasefire collapsed in June 2011 after weeks of
tensions culminated in armed hostilities that
later spread throughout much of Kachin State and
northern Shan State. Several rounds of talks have
been held between KIO representatives and the
government in China but so far with little
headway.
A unilateral halt in military
operations ordered by Thein Sein in December seems
to have had little impact on the frontline as
military operations have continued. This has given
rise to speculation among ethnic leaders and
Myanmar watchers about Thein Sein's command
authority over the army in the field. That lack of
executive control could undermine the durability
of recent ceasefires, some analysts suggest.
Importantly, Myanmar's mainstream
political opposition is supportive of brokering a
political solution to the ethnic problem.
Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has called
several times over the years for a political
settlement between the government and armed ethnic
groups. She has acknowledged the importance of the
ethnic question and that without a settlement with
the ethnic groups democracy will be difficult to
achieve.
The United States and other
Western countries have emphasized the need for
national reconciliation before they will consider
easing their diplomatic pressure and economic
sanctions. US senator Mitch McConnell, a long-time
opponent of the regime in the US Congress, said
during a press conference on Monday while visiting
Myanmar that the end of ethnic conflicts will be a
key consideration for lifting US sanctions.
Previous military governments often cited
the various ethnic insurgencies and their supposed
threat to national unity as justification for
military rule. Ethnic insurgency was one of the
main reasons behind the 1962 coup that began 49
years of successive military dictatorships. Thein
Sein's government has emphasized its desire to
have Western sanctions lifted and establish better
diplomatic ties with the US and Europe.
A
final solution to Myanmar's complicated ethnic
situation may yet be months, if not years away.
But if Thein Sein's government can forge a lasting
political solution, it would represent the first
time since independence when Myanmar was not at
war with itself. The ongoing talks with the KNU
will provide an important litmus test for his
government's true intentions and ability to
implement on the ground the promises it has made
at the negotiating table.
Brian
McCartan is a freelance journalist. He may be
reached at bpmccartan1@gmail.com.
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online
(Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road,
Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
