The
Lady and the generals meet
half-way By Brian McCartan
Myanmar's highly anticipated by-elections,
held on April 1 for some 45 parliamentary seats,
has borne its first diplomatic fruit. The United
States announced a relaxation of certain economic
sanctions and movement on the resumption of full
diplomatic relations with Naypyidaw in reward for
the country's recent democratic progress.
However, the opposition National League
for Democracy's landslide victory of 43 out of the
45 seats may be somewhat overstated and questions
remain about the sincerity of President Thein
Sein's government's commitment to sustainable
reform.
On Wednesday, US Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton announced that the US is
moving forward with reciprocal steps forward in
light of Myanmar's reform efforts and the
by-elections. These steps
include the seeking an
agreement for a fully accredited ambassador to
Myanmar, the first since 1990, and a formal
announcement of a nominee soon.
A US
Agency for International Development (USAID)
mission will be established and restrictions
removed for private organizations to conduct
activities in-country, including in areas related
to democracy promotion, health and education.
A travel ban on government officials,
businessmen and their families listed on a
previous sanctions list will be relaxed to allow
visits by select officials and parliamentarians.
The process to begin a targeted easing of bans on
the export of US financial services and investment
will be started "to help accelerate economic
modernization and political reform", Clinton said.
Clinton made it clear in her statement
that "sanctions and prohibitions will stay in
place on individuals and institutions that remain
on the wrong side of these historic reform
efforts". She went on to say that the US will
continue to monitor the situation and press for
continued reform, especially in human rights, the
release of remaining political prisoners, progress
in national reconciliation with ethnic minority
groups and the "verifiable termination" of
Myanmar's military ties to North Korea. She stated
that improvements in these areas will be met by
positive action by the US.
The relaxation
of sanctions, while not the complete removal many
had hoped for, will still surely be good news for
potential investors. Western companies have been
eager to move into the country since the 2010
elections changed Myanmar from a military
dictatorship to a more palatable civilian-military
hybrid democracy. American companies, in
particular, fear that Asian investors will
consolidate the more lucrative investment
opportunities before they can make inroads.
Many of the US sanctions are grounded in
law and will require congressional action to lift
them, a lengthy process even with bipartisan
support. Still, the executive has the authority to
grant waivers on sanctions in certain sectors
including financial, agriculture, tourism and
telecommunications industries. The Department of
Treasury, too, is able to grant licenses on a
case-by-case basis.
Clinton's announcement
came only hours after a statement by the 10-member
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
calling for the immediate lifting of Western
sanctions. The joint statement came at the
conclusion of a two-day ASEAN summit in Phnom Penh
and amid praise for Naypyidaw's handling of the
by-elections. The statement was the strongest yet
from the grouping, which has long derided
sanctions as being counterproductive.
The
European Union, too, seems on the verge of
relaxing its sanctions. Maja Kocijancic,
spokeswoman for the EU's Foreign Policy Chief,
said on Monday the grouping is expected to send a
"positive signal" when it reviews sanctions at the
end of this month.
She cautioned, however,
that the actual lifting of sanctions may depend on
how the government performs after the elections.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said on
Wednesday that EU foreign ministers had indicated
that many of the sanctions could be lifted if
remaining political prisoners were freed and the
by-elections were deemed fair.
Late on
Tuesday, the Union Election Commission confirmed
that the National League for Democracy (NLD) had
won 43 of the 44 seats it contested, including
Aung San Suu Kyi's constituency in Kawhmu township
south of Yangon. The one seat it lost went to a
candidate from the Shan Nationalities Democratic
Party, which was widely expected before the
elections.
The result was a clear defeat
for the military-backed Union Solidarity and
Development Party (USDP), and demonstrated that
Suu Kyi remains immensely popular. It also sent
the signal that the NLD will be a force to reckon
with in the 2015 general elections.
Although touted as a major test of the new
government's democratic resolve, the by-elections
amounted to a win-win situation that the
government could not pass up. President Thein Sein
on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Phnom Penh
called the elections "successful". His
government's reformist credentials have been
further burnished through the legitimization
provided by Suu Kyi and the NLD's participation in
the polls.
Thein Sein and his
reform-minded allies can afford to allow Suu Kyi
and the NLD the victory. The 43 seats won by the
NLD amount to less than 7% of the 644 seats in
parliament. Of those, a quarter is reserved for
the military and around 80% of the remainder were
won by the USDP in an election that was widely
derided due to rampant vote tampering,
intimidation and other irregularities. Many of the
USDP's members are former military officers and
officials of the previous ruling military junta.
The real prize is the elections due in
2015, when the NLD will be able to challenge the
USDP for control of parliament. The by-elections
gave the government an opportunity to gauge grass
roots support for Suu Kyi and her party. Now that
the elections are out of the way, the government
has some breathing space to plan how to whittle
away that support over the next three years.
New dynamic With Suu Kyi in
parliament, the political dynamic will change from
one of "The Lady versus the Generals" to
mainstream democratic politics where the NLD will
have to compete with other voices in parliament to
be heard. To be sure, Suu Kyi's popularity and
charisma will make her voice a powerful one in the
legislature, but she will be in the minority
against the interests of other opposition parties,
the ruling USDP, and the military.
The
military and the government are surely aware of
their own unpopularity. They know that to win the
2015 elections they will either have to resort to
vote-rigging and intimidation, which would draw
the ire of the international community, or find a
way to undermine support for the NLD. The
alternative is to resort to military power,
through a coup or other intervention in the name
of national security, to secure their hold on
executive and legislative power.
A softer
approach would be to co-opt Suu Kyi and the NLD
without giving them significant powers. There has
been speculation that Suu Kyi may be offered a
cabinet position, though she has said that she
will decline any such offer. Even if rejected, the
offer will still make the former generals appear
reformist.
The USDP can also continue to
claim credit for the ongoing reform effort that
began before the by-elections and score political
points with the economic development which is sure
to follow from the rollback of sanctions.
Successful peace deals with ethnic
insurgents negotiated with government
representatives would also go some way to gaining
the support of ethnic minority voters in 2015. At
the least, the deals would see former insurgent
groups transform into mainstream ethnic-based
political parties, which could dilute the vote for
the NLD in ethnic areas.
The NLD's
presence in parliament will allow it to call
attention to pressing national issues as part of
the mainstream political process. Suu Kyi said
that her party's priorities after the election
would be to push for peace in ethnic minority
areas, institute "rule of law", and support
amendments to the constitution. She has also
highlighted the need for poverty alleviation
through job creation and improving education and
public health services.
Thein Sein's
government has already gone some way on the first
point by starting a peace process with most of the
armed ethnic movements. However, an ongoing bitter
counterinsurgency campaign against the Kachin
Independence Organization that flared up again in
June 2011 after 17 years of ceasefire has drawn
criticism from the international community.
Amendment of the constitution will be
almost impossible with the few seats held by the
NLD. Even with the support of other opposition
parties, she will be unable to garner the
necessary 75% of parliament needed to initiate
charter changes. She can, however, keep the item
in the public's consciousness in readiness for the
2015 elections.
She may find more traction
in seeking improvements in rule by law. Thein Sein
has made several statements about seeking an end
to endemic corruption. Drafts of new laws such as
those governing labor and foreign investment have
already been put up for debate in parliament.
These issues, however, may not be on the
top of the list of many Myanmar citizens who face
a daily struggle to put enough food on the table.
After decades of economic mismanagement, many
people in this largely agrarian country simply
want reforms that will guarantee that they can
bring their crops to market for a fair price,
provide better access to jobs and give reliable
sources of electricity and water.
For the
NLD to maintain its current widespread grassroots
support, they will have to deal with these issues
as well as seek political reform. Suu Kyi's recent
statements about the NLD working both within
government and outside may go some way to keeping
the momentum behind her mass base. Programs such
as the NLD's HIV/AIDS relief center and social-aid
outreach will provide the party with a means to
engage the populace outside of politics.
Thein Sein and his USDP backers will also
need to address these issues if they hope to
defeat the NLD in 2015. Yet already questions are
being raised about the government's most visible
reformist move, the suspension of work on the
Myitsone dam in Kachin State. There are growing
indications that the Chinese company responsible
for constructing the dam, China Power
International, has quietly resumed work on the
project following talks between the Myanmar and
Chinese governments in early March.
The
next three years have the potential to shape up
into an unprecedented competition for the hearts
of Myanmar's population, one that for once does
not involve guns. That is as long as the military
does not decide it has had enough of the democracy
experiment and reasserts its control.
Brian McCartan is a freelance
journalist. He may be reached at
atbpmccartan1@gmail.com.
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