COMMENT Myanmar: Elections and building
trust By David I Steinberg
The successful completion of the
by-elections of April 1 provides grounds for
renewed hope for future developments in Myanmar.
In spite of dire predictions of manipulation, the
results indicate that the government of President
Thein Sein has essentially fulfilled its promise
of a fair set of by-elections - ones that were
swept by the opposition National League for
Democracy (NLD), which won 43 of 45 seats.
The government-supported political
organization, the Union Solidarity and Development
Party (USDP), which had previously held those
seats, lost.
Now, however, if Myanmar is
to evolve into a state that begins to approach its
political, social and economic potential, the
delicate process begins - the building of multiple
levels and layers of trust
between and among the
various forces in the complex maze of societies
that comprise Myanmar.
Distrust pervades
the polity. Decades of suspicion, even wars and
rebellions, have clouded the growth of reciprocal
confidence between the majority Burmans and each
of the diverse minority peoples. Civil-military
relations have also been marked by profound
antipathies for over a generation. The political
parties, both those essentially Burman in
composition and those of minority origin, have
illustrated inability to group together for any
appreciable period for common purposes even when
they have had a common goal, such as replacing the
military with civilian rule. All these tasks are
likely to be both arduous and lengthy.
For
perhaps two generations, senior military have
regarded civilian politicians and bureaucrats as
untrustworthy, incompetent, faction-ridden and
corrupt. Civilians who have experienced the
traumas of military rule have considered the
military as arrogant, domineering, self-serving,
and insensitive to both Burman and minority
peoples.
In spite of the undemocratic
stipulation in the new constitution of including
an unelected 25% younger active-duty military
officers serving in all legislatures, it has one
potential advantage. As a senior retired military
official in Naypyidaw mentioned, this may be the
military's "end game".
The younger
officers are not wedded to the opinions and
stereotypes of civilians as are their seniors.
Over time, working in legislatures together, the
commonality of discussing national goals could
begin to provide this sense of trust that has been
so lacking in Myanmar society. If this were to
develop, the stringency of military authority
under the new constitution could be mitigated.
Although the ruling junta between 1988 and
2010 was able to forge 17 ceasefires with minority
forces, these were not peace treaties, but simply
attempting to enforce a non-lethal status quo. It
sometimes worked.
But President Thein
Sein's administration has been able to sign in
January 2012 a ceasefire with the Karen - the
longest rebellion in the modern world dating from
1949. He now is intent, with foreign support, to
provide to that area the first fruits of peace -
the development of services and a better life so
long denied.
He is determined to do so
quickly with foreign support. If he succeeds, then
the prospects for further reformation of
majority-minority relations in the fractious north
among the Kachin, with whom fighting continues,
would be more likely, as the minorities in that
region may realize what real peace may bring.
Modification of the state's prohibition of
teaching minority languages in the national
curriculum would also go far in enabling those
groups to feel their identities have been
respected. Effective restrictions on glass
ceilings for minorities and non-Buddhists,
especially in the military, need elimination.
The various minorities have in the past
few decades tried to come together to oppose what
they have regarded as a tyrannical Burman military
regime. Even with such a common purpose, they
groupings have proven ephemeral. The development
of minority regions and the real attempt by the
Union (central) government to improve the lot of
the minorities, together with the first program by
the central administration to have provincial
legislatures that could articulate local and
minority needs, in contrast to a centralized
legislature with minority representation, may
provide the basis for the beginnings for such
trust.
Those who want instant democracy
and amity will no doubt be disappointed. But the
opportunities are there for progress over time.
Trust is the element to cement the state - not
simply by military force that has proven to be
both costly in lives and treasure, and has both
been ineffective and increased distrust.
The military's goal of national unity is
important and necessary, not only for the
well-being of the Burmese peoples but for the
stability of the region. Its achievement will come
from more enlightened leadership, and the evidence
is beginning to accumulate that the new government
is approaching the perpetual problems of the state
with more acumen and sensitivity than others have
for over half a century. We only hope it will
continue.
David I
Steinberg is
Distinguished Professor of Asian Studies, School
of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. His
latest volume with Fan Hongwei is Modern
Burma-Myanmar Relations: Dilemmas of Mutual
Dependence (2012).
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