Nationalism and nostalgia win in
Timor Leste By Anna Powles
DILI - In a vote influenced by nationalism
and nostalgia, Timor Leste's voters overwhelmingly
chose former defense force chief Jose Maria
Vasconcelos, more commonly known by his nom de
guerre Taur Matan Ruak, as the young country's
next president.
In a highly anticipated
second round presidential run off on April 16,
Taur Matan Ruak defeated Fretilin party president
Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres, polling 61.2% to
38.8% of the vote and winning 11 of 13 national
districts. His win notably encroached on
Fretilin's stronghold eastern districts and
included a decisive majority in the capital, Dili.
The vote was as much a triumph for Taur
Matan Ruak as it was a signal of popular
dissatisfaction with Fretilin, Timor Leste's largest
political party, and
rejection of the increasing parochialism of
national politics.
Taur Matan Ruak's
success has been attributed in large part to the
backing of his political patron, Prime Minister
Xanana Gusmao. A former rebel leader during
Indonesian occupation, he has remained a popular
figure despite accusations of corruption and
financial mismanagement against his government.
Gusmao has proven himself particularly
adept at coalition politics amid doubts about his
capacity to transition from guerrilla leader to
government leader. The Taur Matan Ruak-Gusmao
political ticket effectively used the imagery of
their shared resistance histories to promote the
strength of their leadership in contemporary
politics.
Although Gusmao's political
clout cannot be underestimated, it was not the
whole story behind Taur Matan Ruak's resounding
win. Taur Matan Ruak also successfully tapped into
rising popular discontent with the slow progress
of development following a decade of independence.
This includes dissatisfaction over issues of
corruption, social and economic inequity, and the
distribution of justice.
Drawing heavily
on the interrelated concepts of nationalism and
nostalgia, Taur Matan Ruak promoted the unifying
concept of a renaissance in the independence
struggle with the evocative campaign slogan
"Together with you in the past, our blood
intertwined towards our independence. Together
again with you today, we toil towards a better
future."
The central message was that
while the first decade of independence was
dedicated to state-building, the social and
economic emancipation and participation of the
people had yet to be achieved.
The mix of
nationalism and nostalgia clearly resonated with
grassroots voters. By calling upon Timorese to
reject passivism and take an active role in
everyday political decision-making, Taur Matan
Ruak sought to invoke a sense of empowerment among
the disenfranchised and positioned himself as the
leader to lead the next wave in Timorese
self-determination.
His leadership
credentials have been drawn exclusively from his
resistance pedigree and his support from
traditional power bases. Significantly, Taur Matan
Ruak courted the support of the Catholic Church,
which remains a powerful institution within
Timorese society.
Against this nationalist
narrative, his lack of political experience
appears to have worked distinctly in his political
favor, suggesting to the electorate that he is
unsullied by the excesses of power that have
increasingly alienated the majority of Timorese
voters.
Given the limited constitutional
authority of the presidency over domestic policy,
will Timor Leste's next president be able to
deliver on his many ambitious campaign promises?
On the campaign trail, Taur Matan Ruak identified
addressing the needs of two main groups - veterans
and former combatants, and youth - as critical to
peace and security given their occasional roles as
challengers to the state.
Managing their
expectations will be a fine line between the sense
of entitlement instilled at the ballot box and the
political limitations of the presidential office.
It is unclear if the president-elect will be beset
with the same frustrations shared by his
predecessors, Gusmao and outgoing President Jose
Ramos Horta, who both reached the realization
after one term in office that real power lay in
government.
The president plays a key role
in the appointment of the prime minister, serves
as supreme commander of the defense force, and
exercises critical powers of veto over
parliamentary legislation, judicial pardons,
dissolution of government and parliament,
constitutional reviews and national referendums.
In light of Taur Matan Ruak's strong domestic
focus, the presidency's powers will provide
considerable leverage to his agenda.
Next democratic test Speculation is rife over what Taur Matan
Ruak's decisive victory will mean for national
parliamentary elections due on July 7. The Taur
Matan Ruak-Gusmao ticket represents a potentially
significant bloc. There is no guarantee, however,
that this electoral success will be replicated at
the parliamentary level, nor is the alliance
between the two former resistance commanders
without its own tensions.
Given the
landslide support received by Taur Matan Ruak,
Gusmao would be wise to hitch his future fortunes
to that of the President-elect and reinvent
himself as distinct from the Alliance for a
Parliamentary Majority (AMP) of which his party,
the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction
(CNRT), is the leading coalition partner.
Despite the electoral rout, Guterres - and
by extension Fretilin - enjoyed an increase in
support from 28% in the first round presidential
election to 38% in the final run off by picking up
votes from the defeated first round candidates,
including Ramos Horta and leader of the Democratic
Party, Fernando "Lasama" de Araujo.
It
could be argued that the Achilles' heel of
Guterres's presidential bid was the Fretilin party
itself and its failure to accurately gauge the
electorate's political mood despite five years in
opposition. For instance, the heated rhetoric and
charged campaign rallies by the self-proclaimed
Fretilin militants was wholly out of step with the
mood of the violence-weary populace. Rumors that
Fretilin would be open to forming a coalition with
its rivals, if true, raises questions about the
party's political future.
Much has been
made of the alliance formed between Ramos Horta
and Lasama following their mutual defeat during
the first round of the presidential election.
Pundits believe the alliance aims to serve a
kingmaker role in the upcoming parliamentary
elections and provide Ramos Horta with the numbers
to challenge Gusmao's leadership, including
potentially for the prime ministership itself.
The nature of Timorese coalition politics,
however, cautions against early predictions as the
horse-trading has only just begun. Recent
statements by Lasama that his party is open to
forming a coalition with Gusmao's CNRT if it wins
a parliamentary majority is indicative of his
political expedience and underscores Ramos Horta's
political quandary in the wake of his falling out
with former ally Gusmao. Coupled with alleged
fractures within Lasama's Democratic Party, Ramos
Horta may yet seek alternatives to the alliance.
The relatively peaceful presidential
elections have been touted widely as a democratic
success. That owes in large part to the
conflict-weariness of the Timorese people, the
growing maturity of the political process, and the
zero tolerance approach to political violence
exhibited by the national police force. The chief
of the defense force, Major General Lere Anan
Timur, gave potential election spoilers three
options: the hospital, the prison, or the grave.
Lere's statement, instances of political
intimidation by uniformed soldiers at polling
stations, and the visual imagery of Taur Matan
Ruak and Gusmao in military uniform on campaign
billboards and ballot papers, signals the
resurgence of the military in national politics
and is expected to play a role at the upcoming
parliamentary elections.
The United
Nations Integrated Mission in Timor Leste has
cited the absence of significant electoral
violence as a precursor to their departure at the
end of 2012. The real stability test, however,
will be at the parliamentary polls where the
political dividends - and pay-offs - will be much
greater.
Anna Powles, formerly
an adviser to the Timorese government, is a
security analyst and author. She is currently in
Timor Leste consulting for several international
agencies and researching a book on the 2006
political crisis. She may be reached at
powlesar@gmail.com.
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