Hardened lines in the South China
Sea By Roberto
Tofani
HANOI - Tit-for-tat moves by China
and Vietnam represent the latest indication that
tensions could break into conflict over contested
and potentially resource rich maritime areas in
the South China Sea.
Hanoi's National
Assembly late last month overwhelmingly passed a
law that effectively declared sovereignty over
areas of the Spratly and Paracel Islands,
including territories claimed by China. The law
will come into force at the beginning of next
year, leaving unclear how Hanoi plans to fortify
its claim in what it refers to as the East Vietnam
Sea.
The decision came in the wake of the
publication of a short essay entitled "Vietnam's
sovereignty over Hoang Sa [Paracel] and Truong Sa
[Spratly] Archipelagos" by the National Political
Publishing House, which
gave historical evidence in support of Vietnam's
claims.
In a prompt reaction, Chinese
authorities established Sansha, a
prefectural-level city that administers the three
disputed island groups of Nansha (Spratly
Islands), Xisha (Paracel Islands), and Zhongsha
(Macclesfield Bank). The new "city" also covers
the three island groups' surrounding waters.
One day after Vietnam's legislature passed
the law, the National People's Congress (NPC),
China's top legislature, urged Hanoi to "correct"
the legislation. Beijing also summoned to
Vietnam's ambassador to China, with whom
authorities lodged a formal protest.
Upping the ante, Beijing's national energy
giant China National Offshore Oil Corp announced
it was offering new oil-exploration blocks to
international companies within Vietnam's 200-mile
exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Vietnamese
officials protested the move as "illegal" and
called on Beijing to cancel the auctions.
According to some independent observers,
the latest dispute was triggered by the presence
in the region of a US Navy research vessel, the
Roger Revelle, which docked at Tien Sa Port
in Vietnam's central Danang city on June 22. The
ship's ostensible mission was a bilateral
cooperative program on oceanic research in the
South China Sea, but Beijing apparently viewed the
vessel's presence as a provocation.
Eight
months since the conclusion of the Bali East Asia
Summit (EAS), where rival claimants to the South
China Sea exchanged conciliatory messages and
hinted at the beginnings of an agreement that
would allow for joint exploitation of resources,
the region is now bracing for potential armed
conflict over the territories. According to the US
Energy Information Administration, the area in
question contains anywhere between 28 billion and
213 billion barrels of oil.
Those concerns
were heightened during the recent two-month
standoff between China and the Philippines over
Scarborough Shoal, another contested territory in
the Spratlys. While the standoff ended without
armed incident, Manila's decision to open a
kindergarten school in another contested area of
the archipelago threatens to reignite tensions.
In light of China's perceived rising
assertiveness, the Philippines and Vietnam have
recently strengthened strategic relations with
Beijing's traditional regional competitors,
including most prominently the US. This approach,
while not excluding commercial and trade dialogue
with Beijing, has not improved the EAS's proposed
constructive dialogue among the claimants, which
also include Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia.
The decision of the two Association of
Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) neighbors - the
Philippines and Vietnam - to strengthen their
bilateral security ties in an apparent bid to
counter China's rising naval power has been
reinforced by US eagerness to secure free
navigation in what it has referred to as the
"maritime crossroads" of the Asia-Pacific region.
Deepening dispute However,
sovereignty disputes over the islands and the
rights to resources in the surrounding waters "do
not appear to pose any credible threat to the
freedoms of navigation and over-flight in the
South China Sea," wrote Robert Beckman, director
of the Center for International Law at the
National University of Singapore, in a recent
paper entitled "Geopolitics, International Law and
the South China Sea".
While freedom of
navigation does not appear to be threatened -
apart from fishing vessels blocked in turns by the
Chinese, Vietnamese or Philippine navies - the
three countries now do not miss an opportunity to
assert their respective rights in the contested
area.
Some now fear all diplomatic efforts
and department-level working groups dealing with
the disputed areas could collapse in the wake of
the recent Scarborough Shoal standoff and the
tit-for-tat legislative exchanges between China
and Vietnam.
On the one hand, China stated
in diplomatic notes to the United Nations in May
2009 that it had "indisputable sovereignty" over
the Spratly Islands and their "adjacent waters"
and that it had "sovereign rights and
jurisdiction" over the "surrounding waters".
On the other hand, as stated by Beckman,
"Vietnam and the Philippines are of the view that
they have the right under international law to
undertake unilateral actions to explore for
hydrocarbons in concession blocks in their
exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in areas which they
believe are not in dispute because they are too
far from any disputed island."
Beckman
also notes that even though a state occupies an
island it "does not necessarily give it a superior
title under international law if other states have
objected to the occupation".
Washington's
recent military overtures towards Hanoi and the
sale of a second warship to the Philippine navy,
albeit without sophisticated weapons and
communication systems, is by some reckoning
raising tensions. Some feel Washington's
rule-by-law stand would be more credible if the US
Senate ratified the United Nations Convention on
the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS); the State Department
and Barack Obama administration support the
convention.
Meanwhile, China's sometimes
erratic position is influenced by internal
conflicts, as outlined in a recent report by the
International Crisis Group "Stirring up the South
China Sea". The report notes that "Any future
solution to the South China Sea disputes will
require a consistent policy from China executed
uniformly throughout the different levels of
government along with the authority to enforce
it."
That could be a long time coming,
according to analysts. Beckman suggests that
China's perceived national interests and maritime
security policy will not change until it becomes a
legitimate naval power and has "the same interests
in freedoms of the seas as other naval powers".
Until then, China's policy will remain
hostage to the likes of Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo,
director of the People's Liberation Army Navy's
(PLAN) Information Expert Committee. He recently
stated his belief that Chinese troops should
engage Philippine ships and fishermen who go near
the disputed Scarborough shoal. Such rhetoric will
push all claimants to reinforce their positions
and raise the potential for armed confrontation.
Roberto Tofani is a freelance
journalist and analyst covering Southeast Asia. He
is also the co-founder of PlanetNext
(www.planetnext.net), an association of
journalists committed to the concept of
"information for change".
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