PENANG - Malaysia's ruling
coalition is having second thoughts about holding
an early snap general election. The problem for
Prime Minister Najib Razak and his United Malays
Nasional Organization (UMNO)-led administration,
however, is that time is running short to win a
pre-emptive electoral advantage before the current
five-year parliamentary term expires in April
2013.
Speculation about snap elections has
intensified as parties led by opposition leader
Anwar Ibrahim's Parti Keadilan Rakyat (People's
Justice Party) begin to fancy their chances of
wresting power from UMNO and the Barisan Nasional
coalition for the first time since independence.
A steady stream of corruption allegations
against Najib's government has dented its public
image and, amid economic
weakness, has raised popular concern that the
country cannot sustain the endemic official
hemorrhage. Earlier vows by Najib to repeal,
reform or replace some of the country's more
anti-democratic laws, meanwhile, have failed to
give UMNO any popular momentum as officials have
maintained heavy-handed tactics against political
dissent.
Anwar and his opposition allies
in the Democratic Action Party and Parti Islam
Se-Malaysia (PAS) have campaigned previously on
issues related to clean and more-democratic
governance. Already at a considerable disadvantage
due to election rules and regulations that favor
the incumbent including an official campaign
period of only 10 days before the polls, they have
vowed not to be caught off guard by snap polls.
The belief is that Najib, like previous
premiers, is waiting for an opportune moment when
public opinion is perceived to be in his favor to
call the polls. But as his UMNO predecessor
Abdullah Badawi discovered at the 2008 general
election, where the opposition scored historic
gains including control over five of 13 federal
states, there may not be a favorable time on the
near-term horizon.
Some analysts believe
he missed an opportunity earlier this year when
his personal approval ratings were high. The
premier had just announced a string of grassroots
handouts, including one-off cash payments of 300
ringgits (US$94.70) to each household with a
monthly income of less than 3,000 ringgits, a
populist program known as One Malaysia People's
Assistance. His Government Transformation Program
(GTP) and Economic Transformation Program (ETP),
meanwhile, had given his administration a
reformist sheen.
Najib had also announced
a 15,000 ringgit windfall for settlers, many of
whom are UMNO supporters, who are part of a
decades-old nationwide rural cash crop
resettlement scheme, the Federal Land Development
Authority (Felda). The announcement came ahead of
the listing of Felda Global Ventures (FGV), an
investment vehicle created to unlock the value of
Felda's commercial assets and holdings.
Prices rose quickly when FGV was first
listed, but analysts have since questioned the
future commercial returns of the listed concern
given that many of the plantations in its fold
consist of palm oil trees that are reaching
maturity. A protest rally by those worried about
how the policy will impact on Felda's future will
be held on July 14.
Controversy also arose
over a proposed new remuneration scheme for civil
servants when it was pointed out that top
officials would receive especially hefty pay
hikes, widening the already yawning income gap
with those at the bureaucracy's lower tiers. Amid
the criticism, the scheme was hastily revised.
Pundits earlier predicted snap polls would
be held in March, coinciding with Najib's
hand-outs, pay raises and privatization policy.
But faced with uncertainties about those policies'
popular appeal, including among UMNO stalwarts,
Najib was forced to recalculate.
Reform
ruse In the interim, the civil society
coalition for clean and fair elections, known
locally as Bersih, stepped up its campaign
demanding wide-ranging reforms to the country's
electoral process, which is widely viewed as
giving the UMNO-led ruling coalition unfair
advantages.
The turning point came during
a huge rally held on April 28 attended by,
according to some estimates, more than 200,000
people demanding electoral reforms. The
government's heavy-handed treatment of peaceful
street demonstrators, including mass arrests and
the use of tear gas and water cannons, dispelled
any notions that Najib's government was serious
about democratic reforms.
Najib's legal
reforms also came under fire in June when
detainees under the Internal Security Act (ISA),
which allows detention without charge, launched a
high profile hunger strike. Najib had announced
last year that the ISA would be repealed and
replaced with a new Security Offenses Act (which
notably still allows for detention without
charge), but 45 ISA detainees remained
incarcerated, some for years without formal
charges being pressed. Najib met the criticism
with silence.
Official transparency also
took a hit when whistle-blowers were investigated,
questioned or visited by authorities in at least
three high profile cases: the inquiry into
official corruption in a submarine deal with
France (the subject of an ongoing judicial inquiry
in Paris) initiated by human-rights group Suaram;
a 250 million ringgit grant for breeding cows to a
feedlot company managed by the husband of a
cabinet minister; and the questionable selection
of a company during a tender process for the
extension of a light rail transit system in the
capital, Kuala Lumpur.
Meanwhile,
prominent Bersih activists, including an analyst
who is due to speak at Bersih events over the next
few days, have faced intimidation and even assault
by unknown individuals or little-known groups. In
the aftermath of the April Bersih rally, Ambiga
Sreenevasan, the Bersih steering committee
co-chair, was harassed outside her private
residence by groups believed to be supportive of
UMNO.
Bersih steering committee member
Wong Chin Huat was assaulted by unknown assailants
while on a recent neighborhood jog. Analyst Ong
Kian Ming, who has regularly highlighted
discrepancies in voters' rolls, including apparent
phantom voters, saw intruders trying to break into
his house this week while he was in his living
room.
The government-controlled Election
Commission has bowed to a couple of protester
demands. For the first time it will allow the use
of indelible ink to prevent multiple voting and
permit the registration of overseas Malaysians as
postal voters provided they have returned to
Malaysia at least once in the previous five years.
Concerns remain, however, over significant
increases in voter registration in peninsular
Malaysia's most developed state, Selangor, one of
the four states currently under opposition rule.
(The opposition lost control of one of the five
states it won at the 2008 polls.) In some seats in
Selangor, the number of registered voters has
inexplicably swelled by more than 20% since 2008.
Najib must now also factor into his
political calculations the extent to which the
economic crisis in Europe and the slowdowns in
China and the United States will affect Malaysia's
export-reliant economy. The potential economic hit
from abroad comes at a time the government's
fiscal management has come into question.
The Edge, a local business weekly,
recently expressed concern about the long-term
sustainability of the government's heavy reliance
on national oil corporation Petronas to finance
its spending programs. Petronas finances an
estimated 45% of the national budget and payments
have doubled over the past five years. A huge
chunk of the budget goes to the heavily
centralized and somewhat opaque prime minister's
department.
"Oil majors plough back close
to 55% of their profits into the business, while
national oil corporations reinvest as much as
65%," The Edge noted in a comment piece. "[But]
Reinvestment at Petronas stands at just over 20%
of profits." The editorial suggested that at
current usage and export rates Malaysia could soon
become a net importer of oil.
The longer
Najib waits to call elections, the more global
uncertainty will cloud the country's economic
prospects and raise new questions about the
government's performance. Although a fiscal boost
when the annual budget is passed later this year
will no doubt aim to dole out more populist
sweeteners to grassroots voters, a longer wait
could also allow more damaging corruption
allegations to rise to the political surface.
Anil Netto is a Penang-based
writer.
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