Page 2 of
2 SPEAKING
FREELY Sinking feeling in the South China
Sea By Nazery
Khalid
Cambodia's perceived kow-towing to
China has to be looked at in the context of China
being a major investor and donor to the country,
which is one of the least developed in the ASEAN
region. China, through its national oil company,
CNOOC, has reportedly invested US$200 million in
an exploratory well off the coast of Cambodia.
Drilling in this area labeled Block F reportedly
started in December 2011.
For a country
like Cambodia, whose economy is often described in
the unflattering term of being "impoverished",
gaining a new source of revenue from offshore
fossil fuels would be most welcome. It is also a
country ravaged by war in the 1970s and memories
of the US bombings that killed numerous people are
not easily erased from
the minds of Cambodians. Hence, their gratitude to
China's economic aid and investment is not to be
taken lightly.
Despite Prime Minister's
Hun Sen insistence that Cambodia was "not being
bought" by anyone in relation to its ties with
China, many are not convinced that Phnom Penh is
completely independent from Beijing's influence.
On account of its handling of the ASEAN meeting,
Cambodia has done little to dispel the perception
that it does the bidding of China at the expense
of the much cherished ASEAN spirit of togetherness
and centrality in regional affairs.
Wither peace and stability in the
sea? Even optimists will not be encouraged
by the recent turn of events in the South China
Sea.
Going into the recent ASEAN
Ministerial Meeting, there was motivation on the
part of ASEAN and China to work towards a binding
code to prevent one another from acting out of
turn and maintain peace and stability in the sea.
Judging from the outcome of the meeting, one fears
that this enthusiasm will be doused and efforts by
ASEAN and China to realize a Code of Conduct could
grind to a halt as a result of the loss of
goodwill between the two.
Adding fuel to
an already tense situation, it was reported around
the time of the ASEAN meeting in Phnom Penh that
three Chinese patrol vessels were spotted near
Senkaku/Diaoyu Island, which China and Japan
claim. This was followed by a statement by US
State Department that the island falls within the
ambit of a treaty - deemed "illegal and invalid"
by Beijing - which requires US to defend Japan
should the island come under attack. Japan upped
the ante by mulling to purchase the island from
its current 'private owner', to the annoyance of
China.
This side development should not be
seen as separate from the situation in the South
China Sea, albeit happening in the East Sea and
not involving ASEAN members. It provides clues to
how China could potentially behave in South China
Sea. It demonstrated that China was in no mood to
show its soft side in safeguarding its maritime
interests, a move probably orchestrated and timed
with the coming change in leadership in Beijing to
send certain cryptic messages to its regional
neighbors and the international community.
On July 14, a Chinese naval frigate vessel
ran aground near Half Moon Shoal, a disputed
feature in the South China Sea and within
Philippines' EEZ, and China dispatched several
vessels to rescue it. It could have turned
differently had the vessel not able to be set
loose and had the rescue party lingered in the
area, with Philippines surveillance aircraft and
ships monitoring the situation. A month earlier, a
tense stand-off occurred between Chinese and
Philippines vessels in Scarborough Shoal, another
disputed feature located about 500 km from Half
Moon Shoal. It could have gotten out of hand if it
wasn't for frenzied diplomatic efforts by both
sides to avert a confrontation.
What
followed was a move by Vietnam to introduce a law
that enshrines its claims on the disputed Paracel
and Spratlys Islands, which China branded a
"serious violation" of its sovereignty. In
retaliation, China upgraded the status of Sansha
county to an administrative level prefecture to
oversee the governance of South China Sea, and
launched "combat-ready" patrols in the sea. All
these developments further stoked the political
temperature in the sea and underscored the need
for a code to govern the conducts of the principal
actors in the sea and avoid confrontation among
them.
Taking all these developments into
account, it would take an optimistic person to bet
that things will cool off in the sea in the near
future. It does not appear that ASEAN will come up
with a consensus on how to address the issue of
disputes in the sea with China anytime soon.
Despite the progress made by ASEAN and China in
developing guidelines on the Declaration of
Conduct, there is little to suggest that China
will want to sign up to a legally binding
agreement in the form of Code of Conduct in the
foreseeable future.
As for the US, it will
continue to issue reminders that it has a
strategic interest in the South China Sea and
reiterate its desire to see freedom of navigation
to be preserved and a peaceful solution to
disputes is reached in the sea. Vietnam and
Philippines are expected to continue on the
tangent of not mincing words in facing China's
conduct in the sea, while other claimant states
are not expected to follow suit.
These,
combined with the prospect of China continuing to
avoid discussing disputes over the sea
multilaterally and vehemently rejecting US
involvement in the matter, do not inspire
confidence that there will be a sharp change of
positions among the key protagonists. In fact, it
is feared that the maintenance of the status quo
will lead to further hardening of positions among
them that would put paid to efforts to seek a
peaceful solution and legal redress to solving
disputes in the area.
Until there emerge
"game changers" that drive the principal actors to
take different approaches, it will be difficult to
imagine the situation to change for the better in
the foreseeable future. One just hopes that all
parties will take serious stock of the situation
and not further aggravate it. Demonizing and
pointing accusatory fingers to one another will
not help in calming things down or help untangle
the complex situation.
Time and again, the
parties involved profess to wanting to settle
disputes peacefully and reiterate their commitment
to maintaining peace and stability. More than
ever, they must show absolute commitment to back
these platitudes with serious, meaningful actions.
Talk is cheap; they must walk the talk and prevent
escalation of tension at all costs and work
towards harmonizing their multiple interests and
finding an enduring solution to their competing
territorial claims in the sea based on the spirit
of neighborliness and friendship and guided by
international principles and law.
As chair
of ASEAN, Cambodia should not forsake the greater
regional interest over its own narrow interest.
China should refrain from taking aggressive,
provocative actions that may create tension and
trigger conflict in the sea. It should live up to
its pronouncements to become a "good friend, good
neighbor, good partner" to its regional neighbors
and seek peaceful resolution to the disputes.
The US should also explore ways to
contribute to the peaceful resolution of disputes
in the sea in a way which would not antagonize
anyone, threaten ASEAN centrality within the
regional security architecture and upset the
strategic balance.
For their part, ASEAN
and China should step up efforts to implement the
guidelines of the Declaration of Conduct and work
towards establishing a Code of Conduct in the sea
between them. The claimant states in the sea
should also engage one another in cooperative and
collaborative initiatives in areas such as fishery
management; environmental protection; navigation
safety; crime at sea prevention; search and
rescue; humanitarian assistance and disaster
relief; and capacity building. Such engagements
help to build trust and confidence among them that
will soothe frayed nerves over the disputes.
Hope springs eternal and one hopes greater
interests will prevail over narrower ones in the
sea. All parties must avoid excarbating the
situation and shun provocative moves that can sink
hopes of finding peaceful resolution to the
disputes in sea. Their collective fate and vast
global trade, economic and strategic interests
intertwine and lie in the sea. The eyes of the
international community will be firmly focused on
the actions and reactions of the key players to
ensure good order, peace, security and stability
reign in this vital waterway.
Nazery
Khalid is a Malaysian-based maritime analyst.
He can be contacted at nazerykhalid@gmail.com
(Copyright 2012 Nazery Khalid)
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