After a drawn-out selection
process, Myanmar's military parliamentarians have
appointed Admiral Nyan Tun as the country's new
vice president, a choice that may help to
consolidate President Thein Sein's position and
signal a shift in the military's position on his
ambitious reform agenda.
The highly
anticipated appointment came after the
disqualification of the previous frontrunner,
Myint Swe, a perceived hardliner aligned with the
previous junta's senior leaders, and amid
widespread speculation about whether the next vice
president would strengthen or weaken the hand of
reformers in government.
Over a month
behind schedule, Nyan Tun's appointment was
announced on Wednesday by the National Assembly.
Following constitutional requirements that the
president and two vice
presidents must be
civilians, Nyan Tun resigned his military
commission before being sworn into office the same
day. He was nominated by military representatives
who represent 25% of parliament and was approved
by Armed Forces Commander Vice Senior General Min
Aung Hlaing.
General consensus on the
nominated candidate must then be given by the
National Defense and Security Council, which is
headed by the president and composed of the
speakers of both houses of parliament, key
ministers and the commanders and deputy commanders
of the armed forces.
Yangon Division Chief
Minister and former Lt General Myint Swe was
initially chosen in July but was dropped from
consideration after it was revealed that his son
had taken citizenship in Australia. Myanmar's 2008
Constitution expressly forbids Myanmar citizens
whose relatives or spouses hold foreign
citizenship from becoming president or vice
president.
Ironically, the rule was
initially viewed by the opposition and independent
Myanmar watchers as a legal ploy to keep
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from ever
holding high office due to her marriage to now
deceased British citizen Michael Aris. Suu Kyi was
elected to parliament earlier this year after
spending nearly 16 of the past 21 years under
house arrest.
The senior post became
vacant after the resignation of Tin Aung Myint Oo
for "health reasons" on July 1. The former general
was reportedly suffering from throat cancer, but
many observers perceived his resignation was
forced due to his opposition to Thein Sein's
reform efforts. Tin Aung Myint Oo was widely
viewed as the leader of a hardline faction of
former and current military officers opposed to
reform and known for corruption.
His
resignation also notably came in the wake of
statements by senior government leaders calling
for top officials to work to promote democratic
reforms and better serve the interests of the
people. Both Thein Sein and the Speaker of the
Lower House, Shwe Mann, had made recent statements
about reining in government corruption.
Tin Aung Myint Oo's resignation and Nyan
Tun's appointment also coincide with an expected
cabinet reshuffle that many observers believe will
aim to strengthen Thein Sein's reformist camp by
expelling ministers and deputy ministers who are
perceived as not adequately supporting reform.
Moderate choice Myanmar's new
first vice president, 58-year-old Nyan Tun, joined
the military as part of the 16th intake at the
Defense Services Academy and graduated in the
1970s. There is little public information on his
subsequent military career besides a brief stint
in the 1980s with the Directorate of Defense
Services Intelligence, the former military
intelligence office, and his attendance at the
elite National Defense College.
In June
2008, he replaced Vice Admiral Soe Thein as navy
chief. At the time, Soe Thein's removal was
believed to be motivated by his mishandling of the
2008 Cyclone Nargis disaster, particularly his
failure to mobilize a naval response to American
and French warships that floated near the
country's coast.
The US and French vessels
had ostensibly come to offer aid but the previous
military regime, fearing the humanitarian offer
could be a pretext for a military invasion,
declined the offer even as millions of its
citizens had been displaced by the killer storm.
Promoted to vice admiral in 2010 and admiral in
2012, Nyan Tun remained commander-in-chief of the
navy until his appointment as vice president.
Some analysts believe the choice of Nyan
Tun may indicate a shift in the military's
political position. While there were other
military candidates to choose from based on
seniority and connections within the armed forces,
especially the army, most of them had public image
problems internationally related to their roles in
the previous ruling junta.
Among the
apparent frontrunners who were ultimately
overlooked was Minister of Home Affairs Gen Ko Ko
and chairman of the Union Election Commission
retired Lt General Tin Aye. Both men have been
implicated for alleged human-rights abuses by
troops under their command while fighting
insurgents in Karen State. In his role as Chief of
Military Ordnance until resigning in April 2010,
Tin Aye was also a key player in securing military
hardware from North Korea, procurements that have
earned the diplomatic ire of the United States.
Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Armed
Forces Vice Senior General Soe Win was also
apparently tipped for the post. Close to former
army commander and the previous junta's
second-ranking official Vice Senior General Maung
Aye, Soe Win's tenure as commander of the Northern
Command in Kachin State was tainted by corruption
allegations. In his current position, he is partly
responsible for the ongoing fight against the
insurgent Kachin Independence Organization, a
counter-insurgency campaign that has been attended
by human rights abuses.
Even Thein Sein's
supposed favorite, Lt General Hla Htay Win, the
current Armed Forces Joint Chief of Staff, is
known for his dubious past. He was a former
commander of the key Yangon-based Light Infantry
Division 11 and later the Yangon Regional Command,
both of which are responsible for security in the
former capital. During the 2007 monk-led "Saffron
Revolution", Hla Htay Win was a key commander in
suppressing the protests - although there were
rumors at the time that he had resisted orders to
open fire on the protestors.
Myint Swe,
the former frontrunner for the post, was
contentious due to his role in the arrests of
former intelligence chief Khin Nyunt and former
dictator General Ne Win. He was also head of
military intelligence for a spell and later
commander of Bureau of Special Operations 5, which
oversaw security for Yangon and the capital at
Naypyidaw. In this role, he also oversaw the
bloody crackdown on the 2007 demonstrations. Myint
Swe's initial selection, later thwarted by his
son's citizenship issues, was motivated in part by
his apparent ability to straddle the line between
hardliner and reformer camps.
Comparative clean hands Nyan
Tun, on the other hand, hails from the navy, a
much smaller and far less controversial segment of
Myanmar's armed forces. The navy has played only a
small part in the various counterinsurgency
operations against ethnic and communist insurgents
since the 1950s, when most of the rebels were
pushed away from coastal regions and major
waterways.
The navy has long been
sidelined by the army and its leaders have often
been mistrusted by the army's top brass. During
the 1988 pro-democracy demonstrations against
military rule, many navy personnel from around
Yangon joined the demonstrations, which were later
bloodily suppressed. The majority of the military
members who defected after the crackdown were from
the navy.
The navy was restructured after
1988 and in recent years has significantly
upgraded its capabilities through increased
budgets, allowing it to expand with newly sourced
vessels, weapons systems and equipment. Still,
like the air force, it remains very much a lesser
service compared with the army. Its officers are
widely seen as less hardline politically and most
have not served on the front lines against
insurgents - both negative points to army officers
who see frontline service as a badge of pride.
The navy also does not carry the same
stigma of human-rights abuses and corruption as
the army. Although there are recent reports
compiled by exile-run human-rights groups of land
confiscation and extortion by naval units,
proportionally they are believed to have impacted
on a far smaller portion of the population,
largely confined to the coastal regions in Rakhine
and Mon States and Tenasserim Division, than
army-backed land grabs.
Nyan Tun's
appointment thus studiously avoids the possible
image problems in the international eye that could
be associated with an army officer. Analysts note
that Nyan Tun does not have a reputation for
corruption, nor does he have a record of
human-rights abuses. As a member of a branch of
the armed forces noted for its past support for
political change, his appointment may signal a
strengthening of the government's reformist camp.
Unlike his predecessor, Nyan Tun also has a
measure of international exposure, mostly to
neighboring countries and on naval business.
His relationship with the military,
however, will be closely watched. Although he is
believed to be loyal to armed forces commander
Vice Senior General Min Aung Hlaing and close to
Senior General Than Shwe, he does not have
personal close ties to the army and significantly
is not a former field commander.
As a navy
serviceman, he does not have direct access to any
particular strong clique within the army, from
where most of the country's political power still
resides. There is already initial speculation
about how willing he will be to safeguard the
military's - and especially the army's -
prerogatives. His handling of these issues will no
doubt impact on the amount of respect and
deference given to him by military leaders and
their appointed representatives in parliament.
Nyan Tun's appointment also raises
speculation about how much residual control Than
Shwe retains over the military and the country's
fast-evolving political process. Although Nyan Tun
is believed to be close to the former junta
strongman, Than Shwe likely could have pushed
Myint Swe through despite the citizenship
controversy of his son or championed the cause of
one of the other more controversial, hardline army
officers.
Instead, Than Shwe and other
military leaders have seemingly opted for a
compromise choice in Nyan Tun. It all points
towards grudging, if not tentative, military
support for Thein Sein's widely lauded reform
efforts.
Brian McCartan is a
freelance journalist. He may be reached at
bpmccartan1@gmail.com.
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