Thein Sein shuffles to restart
reform By Larry Jagan
YANGON and BANGKOK - A cabinet reshuffle
in Myanmar aims to put President Thein Sein's
increasingly stalled reform process back on track.
The highly anticipated shake-up, announced on
Monday, will empower reformers at the expense of
hardliners and could provide new impetus behind
the president's stated policy priorities of
national reconciliation and economic development.
Nine cabinet ministers were replaced and
16 new deputy ministers appointed in the biggest
personnel overhaul of government since Thein Sein
assumed power last year and embarked on his
ambitious and widely lauded political and economic
reform program. Those reforms have included the
release of hundreds of political prisoners, a
loosening of press
censorship and
allowances for pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi
to win a seat in parliament.
The cabinet
reshuffle replaced the ministers responsible for
information, economic planning, development,
finance, industry and railways, all significant
and powerful positions. These ministries'
authority will be transferred directly to the
president's office as part of the reshuffle. Thein
Sein earlier this month appointed Admiral Nyan Tun
as one of two vice presidents, considered a
largely ceremonial post, replacing Tin Aung Myint
Oo, who retired reportedly due to ill health.
Finance Minister Hla Tun, Economic
Planning Minister Tin Naing Thein, Industry
Minister Soe Thein and Railways Minister Aung Min
were all effectively promoted and transferred to
the president's office to oversee broadly the
running of the economy.
For months Thein
Sein and his top advisers had promised a major
shake-up in government involving extensive changes
to his cabinet and the civil service. These
changes have been touted as essential next steps
on the road to political and economic reform and
modernization of the country's antiquated
government machinery. Whether they will be enough
to overcome mounting rearguard resistance and
surging popular demands, however, is still a wild
card.
"The reform process has been stalled
for months by an apparent struggle between
hardliners opposed to reform and liberals who
supported it," said Sean Turnell, an academic at
Macquarie University in Australia. "There seems to
have been a backlash against reform, especially of
the economic variety, and it seemed to be gaining
momentum in recent months."
Thein Sein
suddenly finds himself besieged from all sides,
with parliament, the political opposition and many
ethnic groups snapping at his heels. At the same
time, a loosening of past restrictions is slowly
sinking the country into social chaos, seen in
rising strikes, protests and religious violence in
western Rakhine State. Now only the international
community seems to steadfastly support his
administration and agenda.
"There is a
medley, even melee, of voices, players and
interests raised against the President," said
academic and social commentator Khin Zaw Win. "On
top of that, the government is beset by a slew of
crises, some unfortunate and of long-standing,
while others are of its own making."
To
counter the cacophony against him, Thein Sein
continues to trumpet his mantra of national
reconciliation and economic development. Neither
of those two policy priorities, however, are
steaming ahead due to conflicts in Kachin, Shan
and Rakhine states and resistance to a proposed
foreign investment law designed to lure in outside
capital.
In a bid to build a consensus
around these two crucial points, Thein Sein
recently appointed a group of mostly new advisers
to the newly created National Socio-Economic
Advisory Council. This month, he announced the
government's immediate priority was to boost
economic growth by 8% per year and provide real
income growth for everyone. Many economists
believe those plans are overly ambitious and
unrealistic, especially the proposed increase of
per capita income to US$3,000 by 2015.
Economic emphasis Though he has
said he will not stand for re-election when his
term expires, Thein Sein understands that his
ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party's
(USDP) chances of competing against the popular
Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy
(NLD) party at the 2015 elections depends on his
government's ability to create jobs and raise
grass roots' incomes.
His economic
ministers, on whose shoulders this herculean task
now rests, will with the recent reshuffle oversee
the process from the president's office. This
means they will work directly under and have
privileged access to Thein Sein, a reconfiguration
that will free him up to concentrate on other
matters, including issues of national
reconciliation, according to his political
advisors.
"It's all part of stream-lining
the decision-making process and making the
president and his ministers more effective," said
a government insider.
Foreign experts
believe the cabinet reshuffle underscores Thein
Sein's commitment to liberalizing economic
reforms. "The signs are very good that this new
cabinet will help unblock the recent log-jam to
reform and generally push for greater economic
liberalization," said Turnell, the Myanmar economy
expert. "Many of the new ministers and deputy
ministers are very committed economic reformers."
It's less clear if the reshuffle will
spark change the government's hidebound
bureaucracy. In a bid to inject new blood and
culture into the administration, many of the new
ministers are former academics, businessmen and
technocrats rather than soldiers.
The
appointment of Winston Set Aung - a businessmen
and economic consultant who has served as an
economic adviser to the president in the past 12
months - as the deputy minister for economic
planning has been viewed as a move in a more
technocratic direction. Competence, efficiency and
effectiveness, say diplomats in Yangon, are being
touted as the new watch words for the government
and civil service.
"The battle between
hardliners and reformers has been exaggerated," a
presidential adviser said on condition of
anonymity. "The fault line is between competence
and incompetence, between effectiveness and
ineffectiveness," he said.
Analysts say
one illustration of this new approach was seen in
the demotion of hard-line information minister
Kyaw Hsan, who was shunted to head the
less-powerful cooperatives portfolio. Kyaw Hsan
often contradicted Thein Sein's reform messages on
media management and was widely viewed as a proxy
of former dictator Senior General Than Shwe.
He was replaced by Aung Kyi, formerly
labor and social welfare minister, who is widely
viewed as a dynamic and effective reformer. His
position on media liberalization will be closely
watched. The International Labor Organization, for
one, has praised his approach to forced labor, the
formation of trade unions, and child soldiers. He
has also worked closely with opposition leader Suu
Kyi on the issue of millions of Myanmar migrant
workers in Thailand.
Former railways
minister Aung Min, meanwhile, was tapped to become
a minister in the president's office dedicated to
national reconciliation efforts. While continuing
his ceasefire mediation attempts with ethnic rebel
groups, he will also be responsible for
encouraging Myanmar exiles and expatriates to
return to the country to assist in its
development. Many who were previously blacklisted,
including top exile media editors and former
anti-government activists, have recently returned.
Just as significant, Aung Min will become
a member of the powerful national defense security
council and be given a measure of quasi-civilian
authority over the military. While top military
members are known to support reforms that buoy the
economy and their personal economic interests,
they are more suspect of Thein Sein's political
reform agenda, including engagement with insurgent
and dissident groups.
While all these
moves will consolidate Thein Sein's power, some
analysts believe they are also an effort to
deflect parliamentary criticism and interference.
"The timing of the reshuffle was planned so as to
divert attention from the crises the president is
facing," the commentator Khin Zaw Win said.
A constitutional crisis presently pitting
the president against parliament, and a budding
rivalry between Thein Sein against the parliament
Speaker, Shwe Mann, both threaten to stall the
reform process. And as more political and economic
actors make demands of government, it will become
more difficult to strike compromises on pressing
issues. "The government must deliver on its reform
promises and time is running out," a government
insider said.
Larry Jagan
previously covered Myanmar politics for the
British Broadcasting Corporation. He is currently
a freelance journalist based in Bangkok.
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online
(Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road,
Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
