SPEAKING
FREELY Myanmar reform takes familiar
road By Saw Yan Naing
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please
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contributing.
Looking at Myanmar's
reforms, some cheer, some donate, some invest, and
some remain skeptical.
The cheerleaders,
donors and investors have all optimistically
accepted the government’s line that real
democratic change is taking root in historically
military-run Myanmar. The skeptics, on the other
hand believe that the military-cum-civilian
government is merely implementing its old
"seven-step roadmap" program, which
was drawn and
implemented by the former military regime.
Among Myanmar’s former military, now
civilian, politicians, the roadmap is an open
secret, one that the international community
either missed or has simply ignored. Previously
opposition critics and foreign observers strongly
criticized the "seven-step roadmap", including its
one-sided constitution, forced national
referendum, and rigged general election that gave
the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development
Party (USDP) a dominant democratic mandate.
All of this was forgotten after President
Thein Sein’s government released pro-democracy
leader Aung San Suu Kyi and hundreds of other
political prisoners, suspended the controversial,
China-backed Myintsone Dam project, and eased some
restrictions on media and basic civil liberties.
The “seven-step roadmap” has taken a long,
circuitous route. Its first step, a national
convention that began in 1993, was suspended for
years, restarted in 2003 and finally completed 14
years later in September 2007.
Step two,
the implementation of a process to allow the
emergence of a "genuine and disciplined democratic
system" was completed soon after the first step
and quickly followed by the third, the writing a
draft constitution, which was completed in October
2007. In May 2008, despite the widespread
devastation, displacement and death caused by the
Cyclone Nargis disaster, the military regime
forcibly carried out a controversial national
referendum, the fourth step on the roadmap. At
that time, the military regime initially banned
international aid and relief workers from entering
Myanmar to assist with humanitarian relief
efforts. Nonetheless, the constitution was
overwhelmingly adopted through the referendum.
A general election, conducted on November
7, 2010, represented step five. The USDP, the
military’s former mass organization which was
converted into a political party, won 76.5% of the
new parliaments’ seats and elected Thein Sein, the
junta’s former prime minister, as president.
Independent observers criticized the election as
neither free nor fair due to vote buying, ballot
cheating and voter intimidation, among other
allegations.
The sixth step convened the
new elected bodies and the seventh created
government organs instituted by the legislative
body.
Ex-junta chief Senior General Than
Shwe made sure through the seven step plan that he
and his family would after his retirement be safe
from retribution for his regime’s abuses. Under
the 2008 constitution, no legal action may be
taken against him and his soldiers who served in
the previous ruling junta. Articles 443 and 445 of
the constitution say specifically that the former
regime cannot be held accountable for its past
wrongdoings. Meanwhile, the junta's favored
cronies were through the opaque privatization of
state assets granted control over most of the
state's businesses and other national resources.
Despite all this, some observers and
critics have noted that a positive political
structure has emerged from the implementation of
the "seven step roadmap." They believe the plan
created space for pragmatic political players, as
well as foreign nongovernmental organizations, to
become more involved and assist the move towards a
more democratic direction. Ye there is still a
long way to go before Myanmar should be considered
a functioning democracy.
Myanmar watcher
Ashley South, an author of books who closely
follows Myanmar’s political developments, has said
that the international community should encourage
the reforms initiated by Thein Sein’s government.
He, however, has warned that serious and
widespread human-rights abuses, particularly in
areas affected by on-going armed conflicts, must
not be ignored. Without addressing the aspirations
and grievances of ethnic minorities, social and
political problems cannot be solved, he added.
Kyaw Min Yu, a former political prisoner
and member of the dissident 88 Generation Students
Group, has said he is more interested in reform
efforts underway outside of parliament. As the
parliament is dominated by junta-backed USDP
members and military appointees who legally hold
25% of parliament’s seats, opposition leader Suu
Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD)
party cannot achieve much through the legislative
process, said Kyaw Min Yu, who was released from
prison in January.
Others see reason for
hope in more recent developments. On August 27,
Thein Sein undertook a major reshuffle of his
cabinet, a move several observers felt would boost
Myanmar's reform drive. The move supposedly
elevated reform-minded ministers while those
considered hardliners or conservatives were
removed or sidelined.
Among the most
important changes was the removal of Information
Minister Kyaw Hsan, who was widely seen as an
opponent of reforms. He was symbolically replaced
by the conciliatory Aung Kyi, who previously
served as a liaison between Suu Kyi and the former
ruling junta. The posting of outgoing railways
minister Aung Min and industry minister Soe Thein
directly to the president's office was also seen
as a boost for reform.
Aung Naing Oo
deputy director of the Vahu Development Institute,
a Thailand-based think tank, recently said, "In a
transition in any country, it is a normal practice
that those who oppose the reform are removed from
their post and replaced by those who support the
reform."
In late August, the government
removed more than 2,000 people from its notorious
blacklist, including leading exiled Burmese
dissidents, activists and foreign journalists. Suu
Kyi's sons, Alexander Aris and Kim Aris, were
among those who were removed from blacklist.
Observers noted that this highly lauded move
happened outside of parliament.
Skeptics
of these moves argue the regime has been motivated
more by a desire to win desperately needed
political and economic support from the West after
decades of isolation than a genuine commitment to
democracy. As Western countries move to lift their
sanctions, and Myanmar emerges as a leading
destination for global leaders, diplomats,
businessmen, donors and tourists, the roadmap has
come together in image if not in substance.
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online
feature that allows guest writers to have their
say.Please
click hereif you are interested in
contributing. Articles submitted for this section
allow our readers to express their opinions and do
not necessarily meet the same editorial standards
of Asia Times Online's regular contributors.
Saw Yan Naing is an ethnic
Karen journalist from Myanmar, currently working
as senior reporter at Thailand-based The Irrawaddy
magazine
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