Aung
San Suu Kyi on risky ground in
US By David I Steinberg
Aung San Suu Kyi, the avatar of democracy
in the Western world, is visiting the United
States this week. A distinguished member of
Myanmar's legislature, she is making her third
trip abroad this year after spending 16 out of 21
years under house arrest beginning in 1989.
Her triumphal visit to a number of
countries in Europe, during which she at last
personally received in Oslo the Nobel Peace Prize
she had been awarded in 1991, was preceded by a
short trip to Bangkok to an economic summit, which
attracted so much attention that President Thein
Sein of Myanmar cancelled his trip, apparently
because of fears he would have been overshadowed by
her media limelight.
Thein Sein and Suu Kyi will, however,
overlap in the US: Myanmar's reformist president
is to address the UN General Assembly while she is
to travel extensively for almost two weeks to over
half a dozen cities and receive accolades,
including a Congressional medal, from a number of
institutions across the US.
Both visits
are important at a time the US has moved to engage
the country it had for decades isolated. Thein
Sein has been the architect of widespread reforms
beginning in 2011 that have resulted in the most
progressive changes in Myanmar since a military
coup of 1962.
His administration has been
the most open and tolerant of dissent since that
period. With a refreshing change from past
autocrats, Thein Sein has overseen the release of
hundreds of political prisoners and other moves
that have prompted a partial lifting of some US
sanctions on investment and banking, and the
appointment of a US ambassador to Myanmar for the
first time since 1990.
Suu Kyi has fought
for liberalization and democracy since 1988, and
her views, or what have been purported to be her
views when she was not accessible to the outside
world, have for decades effectively determined US
policies toward Myanmar.
Her congressional
support has been extensive, and it is significant
that US President Barack Obama personally
contacted Suu Kyi to gain her approval to ensure
that Secretary of State Clinton's visit in early
December 2011 created no negative internal
political backlash. US policy toward Myanmar is
remarkably but unobtrusively locked into the
internal US political process.
Thein Sein
has long called for the removal of US economic and
financial sanctions. The implicit opprobrium not
only stopped all new US investment, but also
caused some non-US firms to avoid Myanmar. Suu Kyi
has been, fairly or unfairly, regarded by the
previous military junta and Thein Sein's
administration as largely responsible for the
continuation of sanctions introduced in 1997,
2003, and 2008. For years she indicated her
support for Western sanctions, including those
imposed by the European Union, as well as an
informal ban - now removed - on tourist travel.
In contrast to former presidents Bill
Clinton and George W Bush, who both advocated the
ineffective policy of regime change, Obama's
approaches toward Myanmar have probably been the
most effective foreign policy in East Asia in his
administration, and have been mentioned as such in
his Democrat Party platform. The policy called for
"pragmatic engagement" - dialogue at high levels
and (in deference to congress) continuation of
some sanctions.
In August this year, Obama
signed legislation continuing the sanctions
against all Myanmar imports for another year on
the basis that the country was a specific threat
to US security and national interests - similar to
language used to justify sanctions against North
Korea.
Before such imports were halted,
garment sales to the US totaled some US$356
million from factories that largely employed tens
of thousands of Myanmar women on the edge of
poverty and destitution. As the purpose of US
engagement with Myanmar is to assist both its
democratization and growth, there is a blatant
inconsistency with the ends espoused and means
employed.
For years, the US has hoped Suu
Kyi could pursue an important and productive
liberalizing role in Myanmar society. If she is to
rise beyond her present status as a minority
member of the legislature to an executive position
after the 2015 polls, it would require the support
of the military to amend the constitution, which
now effectively precludes her from holding
presidential or vice presidential positions
because of the foreign allegiance of her two sons.
Now, as a politician and no longer the
almost mythical figure of democracy in her own
country, Suu Kyi needs the support of the
civilianized Myanmar administration, composed
largely of former military officials, as much as
it needs her moral authority. (Twenty five percent
of Myanmar's parliamentary seats are reserved for
still-active military officials)
Mutual
trust, so long lacking, is essential for Myanmar's
reform program. Thus Suu Kyi's international
acclaim should not be allowed to eclipse Thein
Sein's upcoming important US visit, for it could
conceivably endanger future collaborative
reconciliation and progress.
During the
visits of both Thein Sein and Suu Kyi, the US
should even-handedly help the process of
reconciliation among all groups within Myanmar for
the welfare of the people, who have borne so much
suffering for such a long time. Myanmar is Asia's
second-poorest country on a per capita basis,
trailing only Afghanistan.
Suu Kyi may cut
a more attractive media profile, but until the
next general election in 2015, the continuation
and expansion of reforms depend largely on Thein
Sein's will and determination. He should be
received as such during his upcoming trip to the
US.
David I Steinberg is
Distinguished Professor of Asian Studies, School
of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. His
latest volume (with Fan Hongwei) is Modern
China-Myanmar Relations: Dilemmas of Mutual
Dependence (2012).
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