Mindanao gets a chance for
peace By Richard Javad
Heydarian
MANILA - On October 7,
Philippine President Benigno Aquino announced the
successful conclusion of a framework peace
agreement between the government and the country's
main rebel group, the Moro Islamic Liberation
Front (MILF). The deal could potentially end a
four-decade-long conflict that has claimed the
lives of almost 200,000 people and contributed to
general lawlessness and entrenched poverty across
much of the southern island of Mindanao.
Leveraging his reformist government's
rising political capital, Aquino hopes to achieve
what at least five successive Philippine
administrations dating back to the 1970s have
failed to: peace and stability in Mindanao. To
underscore his commitment, Aquino has vowed to
accomplish a final agreement before the end of his
term in 2016. If so, it could pave the way for
reconciliation after
centuries of tensions
between the sprawling island nation's Catholic
majority and Muslim minority.
A
new sub-state unit, a so-called "Bangsamoro
political region", will be created as part of the
deal to supplant the current Autonomous Region in
Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), which was created as part
of a 1996 agreement between then president Fidel
Ramos and the MILF's parent organization, the Moro
National Liberation Front (MNLF). The two rebel
groups later split over differences in perspective
on how to win greater autonomy from Manila.
Although the central government will as
part of the new framework agreement retain control
over administrative areas such as currency,
defense, foreign affairs, and citizenship, the new
political entity will exercise autonomy over
crucial areas such as justice and taxation. The
Bangsamoro political region will also have
qualified powers to implement Sharia law and
solicit grants, donations and contract loans from
sources of its own choosing.
Moreover, the
new entity will function as a ministerial form of
government, whereby it will elect its own council
representatives and leaders - although they will
be under the ultimate authority of the Philippine
president. In exchange, the MILF will gradually
decommission its 11,000-strong militia while the
Philippine army hands over authority for law
enforcement to local police.
As part of
the framework agreement, various working groups
will be obliged in the years ahead to engage in a
complex and difficult process of hammering out a
final agreement. A 15-member committee will draft
a new law to be approved by the legislature and
through a local referendum by voters who fall
within the areas of the proposed new political
entity.
There are, however, still crucial
legal debates. While some legislators such as
Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago have argued there
is a need to amend the constitution in order to
accommodate the new political entity, Senate
President Juan Ponce Enrile has ruled out such a
move, saying instead there is only a need for a
new law which will supplant the ARMM with the
Bangsamoro political region.
In 2008, the
Supreme Court blocked a proposed Memorandum of
Agreement on Ancestral Domain for the region
negotiated between then President Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo and the MILF on the legal grounds
the agreement was unconstitutional. The court
intervention set off new rounds of violence and
human displacement in the region.
Now, the
greater worry lies in the potential reaction of
more extremist splinter groups, namely the
Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) and Abu
Sayyaf, neither of which have acknowledged
Aquino's framework deal. These two groups can
ultimately act as spoilers, sabotaging the
emerging peace process in the absence of any
dialogue with the government.
As a matter
of principle, the Philippine state has refused to
deal with these rebel groups, which it brands as
"criminal" and "terrorist". Negotiations with
powerful communist insurgents represented by the
National People's Army (NPA) are still deadlocked.
To ensure not only the economic viability of the
new Bangsamoro political region, but also its
self-governance capacity given the heavy
entrenchment of a host of criminal gangs, militia
groups, and local warlords in the area, some sort
of accommodation will ultimately need to be made
with these groups.
Landmark
deal The framework deal with the MILF comes
against the backdrop of growing optimism in the
country's economy - currently among the best
performers in the region - and political
direction. Through a wide-reaching anti-corruption
campaign, Aquino's administration has successfully
impeached leading magistrates accused of
corruption and administrative misconduct. It has
also pushed for the passage of crucial bills in
the legislature, especially the Freedom to
Information Act, to enhance transparency and good
governance.
MILF rebels have clearly taken
notice of these positive developments under
Aquino, which some analysts believe created the
overall constructive atmosphere of recent
negotiations. The conflict-weary leaders of the
MILF have not only welcomed the deal but are also
trying to convince other splinter groups such as
the BIFF to respect the creation of the agreed new
political entity. In Manila, Aquino seems
determined to build on the legacy of his mother -
the late president Corazon Aquino - by reaching
out to the rebels and paving the way for a final,
enduring peace in Mindanao. Other Asian countries,
namely Sri Lanka and Indonesia, have recently
resolved their long-standing secessionist
problems, while a liberalizing regime in Myanmar
is believed to be trying to move in a similar
direction.
The administration's early
success lies in its astute diplomacy and political
will. The deal comes after 32 rounds of intense
negotiations with the constructive participation
of an International Contact Group which brought
together key representatives from Europe, Muslim
countries, and the United States, as well as
established conflict resolution institutions such
as the Geneva-based Center for Humanitarian
Dialogue.
As a sign of his personal
determination, the president is known to have
personally involved himself to help bridge
differences with the rebel group. In 2010, upon
assuming the presidency, Aquino - unlike his
predecessor Arroyo - agreed to meet MILF leader Al
Haj Murad. A face-to-face meeting was arranged the
following year in Tokyo, a crucial step that
revived botched efforts by the previous
administration.
After some initial talks
in 1997 between then president Fidel Ramos and the
MILF, the succeeding administration of president
Joseph Estrada declared outright war on the rebel
group, a heavy-handed bid to achieve peace through
force. Sensing the futility of her predecessor's
policy, Arroyo called for a ceasefire and explored
peace talks beginning in 2003. After five years of
intense negotiations, Arroyo announced a
provisional peace agreement with the MILF, one
that the Supreme Court ultimately struck down in
part because of her administration's inability to
provide a transparent and inclusive process of
negotiations.
Drawing lessons from his
presidential predecessors' failures, Aquino has in
contrast bid to make his ongoing negotiations as
transparent and inclusive as possible. After a
series of necessarily closed door talks, the
details of the framework agreement are now open to
the public, while comments and suggestions from
all relevant and concerned stakeholders have been
encouraged.
International
kudos The international response to the
framework deal has been positive at the highest
levels. United Nations secretary general Ban
Ki-moon described the framework deal as a
"landmark achievement" and underscored his
organization's readiness "to provide assistance to
the parties as needed in implementing the
framework peace agreement".
Foreign
investors have long been excited about the peace
prospects for large-scale mining ventures in the
resource-rich island of Mindanao, which by certain
estimates possesses over US$300 billion worth of
unexploited mineral deposits. With its share of
investment-to-GDP increasing in recent years,
Mindanao could benefit from more infrastructure
and development projects to help facilitate such
international investments.
Neighboring
countries such as Malaysia, meanwhile, have also
warmly welcomed the deal. A successfully
implemented agreement could mean a reduction in
maritime criminal activity along
Philippine-Malaysian borders and stem the flow of
illegal immigrants from conflict-ravaged Mindanao
to the Malaysian island of Borneo. Kuala Lumpur
has served as a key broker in the negotiations,
actively mediating between the two sides since
2001.
Malaysian Prime Minster Najib Razak
hailed the agreement as a step towards " ...
ensure[ing] that the Bangsamoro people will enjoy
the dividends of peace, which they rightly
deserve. His defense minister, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi,
said "With peace, there will be a reduction in the
influx of immigrants into Sabah. Not only is it
expensive for us to tackle illegal immigrants into
Sabah, it could create economic and political
problems in the state."
At the height of
the US-led global "war on terror", Mindanao was
identified by some analysts as a second front in
the campaign because it served as a magnet for
leading terrorists who had escaped crackdowns in
other parts of Southeast Asia. The framework peace
agreement could thus also aid on-going
anti-terrorism operations in the region, mostly
targeting Abu Sayaff, and contribute to greater
national and regional security.
Long
strategic view Security experts are
assessing the potential strategic dividends of a
more stable Mindanao. The US, Australia and other
allies are known to be analyzing the prospects for
ending the consistent infiltration of high-profile
terrorist elements, including from al-Qaeda
affiliate groups such as the Indonesia-based
Jemaah-Islamiyah, which have long exploited the
island's porous borders and general state of
lawlessness.
Peaceful relations with the
MILF will allow the Philippines' armed forces to
focus more squarely on mopping up Abu Sayyaf while
re-orienting their defense posture towards more
external threats, especially in light of growing
tensions with China over disputed islands in the
South China Sea.
Some here hope that a
successful peace agreement with the MILF will
provide momentum for renewed peace talks with the
10,000-strong armed communist NPA insurgents. The
NPA conflict dates back to the 1960s and has
claimed an estimated 40,000 casualties.
Earlier peace talks in 2004 and 2011 -
brokered by the Norwegian government - collapsed
after communist leaders demanded the release of
their detained comrades as a precondition for
peace and accused the Philippine government of
contributing to the NPA's inclusion on the US's
list of foreign terrorist organizations. Now, an
inspired Aquino administration is trying to revive
those stalled negotiations.
Despite the
optimism surrounding the announcement of the
framework deal, there are still concerns over the
MILF's ability to hold the tentative peace
agreement together and effectively govern a new
political entity. The 1996 deal with the MNLF felt
apart because leaders of that autonomous region
failed to reverse massive poverty, corruption, and
lawlessness, while splinter groups such as MILF,
Abu Sayyaf and BIFF aimed to sabotage the deal.
The Aquino administration will thus need
to devise a detailed and effective plan to
strengthen the foundation of the nascent
autonomous region in one of the poorest and most
violent regions in Southeast Asia. Otherwise, he
risks repeating a history of well-intended but
ultimately unviable peace efforts in Mindanao.
Richard Javad Heydarian is a
foreign affairs analyst based in Manila. He can be
reached at jrheydarian@gmail.com
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