Militants threaten Manila peace deal By Jacob Zenn
A
framework agreement formally signed on Monday by
the Philippine government and rebel Moro Islamic
Liberation Front (MILF) aims to end a decades-long
conflict through the establishment of a new
autonomous political entity known as Bangsamoro on
the southern island of Mindanao. Despite
widespread optimism both at home and abroad about
the agreement's peace prospects, a number of
outstanding issues still mitigate against the
deal's long-term success.
Those spoilers
include the potential for radical MILF fighters to
defect from the leadership who brokered the deal
and continue their armed struggle; a resurgent
Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), which
believes its own peace agreement has been
undermined by the deal and has threatened to
resume hostilities; the breakaway Bangsamoro
Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), who under their
radical leader Ameril Kato have threatened to
carry out attacks on
civilians if the agreement passes; and Abu Sayyaf,
the country's al-Qaeda-inspired Islamist
insurgency which appears to have launched a new
international recruitment drive.
The
framework agreement is the result of over 15 years
of negotiations and will be implemented by a
15-member Transition Commission. No timetable has
been announced for disarming the MILF's estimated
11,000 foot soldiers. The deal notably falls short
of the MILF's central demand at the time of its
founding, which called for the creation of an
independent Muslim state for Mindanao's ethnic
Moro Muslims. The MILF broke away from the MNLF in
the 1970s when the MNLF dropped the demand for an
independent state and accepted a semi-autonomous
region.
Through a 1989 plebiscite, the
autonomous area became known as the Autonomous
Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), which now
comprises areas of Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur
provinces on mainland Mindanao and Sulu and Tawi
Tawi in the Sulu Archipelago. Bangsamoro, the
political entity that will replace the ARMM under
the framework agreement, will comprise roughly the
same territory as the current ARMM and will have a
population of about four million people in six
municipalities in Lanao del Norte, six
municipalities in North Cotabato, and the cities
of Cotabato and Isabela in Basilan.
This
territorial jurisdiction is much smaller than what
was negotiated in 2008, when the government and
the MILF planned to sign a so-called Memorandum of
Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOAAD). The MOAAD,
which was ruled by the Supreme Court as
unconstitutional and thus never implemented, would
have also included large areas of Palawan and
Christian-majority areas of North Cotabato and
Zamboanga City in Mindanao.
President
Benigno Aquino has promised that the political
interests that torpedoed the MOAAD deal will not
interfere with the implementation of the framework
agreement. For Aquino, the deal promises to
solidify his legacy as not only as a reformer but
also a peacemaker. The deal is intended to be
finalized in 2016, the same year that his six-year
term ends. Aquino highlighted the economic
benefits that the agreement will bring to Mindanao
when he said that "the hands that once held rifles
will be put to use tilling land, selling produce,
manning work stations and opening doorways of
opportunity".
A US intelligence assessment
made public in 2011 estimates that Mindanao has an
estimated US$1 trillion in untapped mineral
deposits but companies have been unable to exploit
the resources due to the numerous insurgencies on
the restive island. Persian Gulf-based companies
from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
have expressed interest in agricultural
investments in Mindanao but have also shied away
due to the political risks.
The framework
agreement is acceptable to Manila in part because
the Bangsamoro area will not be as large as the
one proposed in 2008 and all powers that are
typically the exclusive sovereign powers of the
state, such as foreign policy and defense, will
remain with the government. Bangsamoro will have
powers including taxation and the "right to
strengthen Islamic Courts," which will be
applicable only to Muslims.
The deal has
also been welcomed by the Armed Forces of the
Philippines (AFP). If implemented as planned, it
will allow the military to devote more resources
to territorial defense rather than internal
security. The deal comes at a time of heightened
tensions between the Philippines and China over
territorial rights in the South China Sea, which
the Philippines now officially refers to as the
West Philippine Sea. The day after the agreement
was announced on October 8, American and
Philippine Marines began joint exercises in Subic
Bay, though officially the exercises were
unrelated to the territorial disputes with China.
Sibling rebel rivalry Now that
the MILF has settled for virtually the same terms
that the MNLF agreed to with the initial creation
of the ARMM, MNLF leaders reportedly see its peace
agreement as effectively abrogated. Habib Mujahab
Hashim, chairman of the MNLF's Islamic Command
Council, said if the Aquino administration
proceeds with the signing of the framework
agreement with the MILF, then the MNLF will likely
return to armed struggle.
The MNLF never
disarmed after the 1996 peace agreement it signed
with the government and has now reportedly begun
amassing fighters in Zamboanga del Sur, possibly
in a show of force to begin to win recruits from
among MILF fighters and the local population who
disapprove of the framework agreement deal. With
many of the MILF's fighters expected to join the
Philippines National Police (PNP), the MNLF may
win back MILF fighters who are not satisfied with
a Bangsamoro that is not a fully autonomous state.
It remains unclear, however, whether MNLF
leader Nur Misuari, who also views the framework
agreement as a violation of the MNLF's peace
agreement with the government, will advocate for a
return to armed conflict with the government after
more than a decade of relative peace.
The
two other Muslim armed groups in Mindanao, the
Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) and Abu
Sayyaf, have categorically rejected the framework
agreement and may also seek to lure in disaffected
fighters from the MILF - just as the MILF lured
disaffected fighters from the MNLF after the
MNLF's 1996 peace agreement.
Ameril Umbra
Kato, a former commander of the MILF's 105th Base
Command, was the mastermind behind attacks on
civilians in North Cotabato in 2008 when the MOAAD
was about to be signed. He is now the leader of
the BIFF, which he founded in late 2010 along with
300 MILF fighters who rejected the MILF's then
seemingly futile start-and-stop negotiations with
the government. Kato's forces most recently
attacked the army in August.
BIFF
spokesman Abu Misri Mama, who over the weekend
characterized the framework agreement as a
"surrender" has suggested that Kato will carry out
new attacks in response to the deal. "In time we
will launch our harassment, we are already near to
our enemies," Misri Mama recently said.
"Civilians, whether Muslims, Christians or
indigenous peoples, are residing near military
detachments or headquarters. They can start to
evacuate so they will not be hurt in the
crossfire."
Kato is believed by some
security analysts to have 1,000 fighters under his
command. Photos and reports coming from his camp
in Maguindanao, however, claim that he is so weak
from illness that he can barely walk and talk, let
alone lead a fighting force. In December 2011, it
was rumored that he had died, though he likely had
suffered from a debilitating stroke. There is no
known leader prepared to take over the leadership
of the BIFF in the event of Kato's passing, which
may result in the BIFF either becoming defunct or
its fighters joining with disaffected MILF
fighters in a resurgent MNLF.
Abu Sayyaf
may also receive disaffected MILF or stray BIFF
fighters. Abu Sayyaf was originally comprised of
leading MNLF fighters who felt betrayed by the
MNLF's 1996 peace agreement with the government.
The rebel group renowned for its
kidnapping-for-ransom is situated in remote jungle
areas of Basilan and carries out sporadic attacks
on government forces and corporations. After a
series of strikes against its top leaders, the Al
Qadea-linked group is believed to be in dire need
of new fighters. Some estimates but there numbers
at a record low of around 350.
Unable to
recruit new members locally, Abu Sayyaf has
apparently recently taken in members of Al-Qaeda
in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and possibly even
assumed a new name. On October 2, a militant named
Abu Atikah al-Muhajir posted photographs to a
jihadist website purporting to show two "lions of
the Arabian Peninsula" with a group of other
Islamist militants in the southern Philippines
with the typical black and white al-Qaeda flag in
the background. He claimed that he was a
"mujahideen brother in the Tawhid and Jihad Group
in the Land of the Philippines of Pride" without
referring to Abu Sayyaf by name.
With Abu
Sayyaf, BIFF, MNLF and possibly a number of
disaffected MILF fighters all opposed to the
MILF's framework agreement, and with each group
entering significant transitions, it is not clear
that the widely lauded deal will lead to immediate
or lasting peace. Between now and 2016, when the
agreement is intended to be finalized, a number of
internal and external factors could derail the
agreement. Indeed, various on-the-ground realities
suggest the road to peace is still as complex as
ever.
Jacob Zenn is a Washington
DC-based international affairs analyst and legal
advisor who specializes in the analysis of
insurgent groups. He can be contacted at
zopensource123@gmail.com.
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