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    Southeast Asia
     Nov 9, 2012


Page 2 of 2
Nowhere to go for the Rohingya
By Phil Radford

He went on to state there was a great deal of intermarriage between the races, particularly between Arakanese women and Chittagongian men, up to 20,000 of whom moved south across the border each year to find temporary employment in the rice fields of Akyab. Murray went on to comment - with a hint of self-justification - that the two communities had lived intermingled under British rule for 116 years in Arakan without much incident, "though latent hostility between them flared up in occasional riots and murders".

But what Murray then goes on to describe is an almost exact precursor to what is happening right now. During the Japanese invasion of Burma in 1942, he says, "... the area of mixed

 

population was the scene of repeated large-scale massacres, in which thousands of people perished or died subsequently of starvation and exposure."

He reported that although the populations separated, Arakan became a battleground for the next two years and was "thoroughly devastated", with Muslim fleeing northwards to their relatives or to refugee camps in Chittagong.

... and it does repeat
Flash forward 30 years, and the cycle of violence and migration occurs again. Three years after the Emergency Immigration Act was passed, the Burmese army launched operation "Nagamin" (Dragon King), in what David Smith calls a "census operation". Amidst widespread allegations of brutality, rape and murder, approximately 200,000 Rohingya fled over the border to Bangladesh in late 1977-78, with many finding refuge in camps across the Naf river, in Cox's Bazar, Chittagong Province, Bangladesh.

Bangladesh struggled to cope; but since it wasn't a signatory to the United Nations Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (CRSR), it didn't have to. After signing a government-to-government agreement with Burma, Bangladesh encouraged voluntary repatriation.

According to Alan Lindquist, who was head of the UNHCR sub-office at Cox's Bazar, this involved deliberately reducing the food rations issued in refugee camps. In the following decade, most Rohingya did move back to Myanmar, but without documents, and not before 12,000 of them had starved to death, according to a Human Rights Watch report published in 1996.

Flash forward to 1991-2, and exactly the same cycle starts again. Following a military build up in the two northern towns of Maungdaw and Buthidaung, approximately 270,000 Rohingya crossed the border into Bangladesh, alleging "excessive" forced labor demands from the NaSaKa (the Myanmar border administration force), lack of freedom of travel and land confiscations. Again, the refugees headed across the Naf river to approximately 20 camps around Cox's Bazar. Again, the main influx happened immediately after the monsoon rains stopped in November.

Bangladesh initially refused UNHCR access to new arrivals, and did not allow the majority of Rohingya to apply for asylum. During 1994-5 and under UNHCR sponsorship, approximately 50,000 did return, with an unknown number following later. According to Human Rights Watch, however, this repatriation occurred against a backdrop of serious abuses in the refugee camps, including beatings and the denial of food rations. In its 1996 report, compiled from interviews with refugees, Human Rights Watch claimed the Bangladesh Border Rifles conducted daily searches of camps, beating Rohingya who hid new arrivals.

Don't come back this time
The reception awaiting the 2012 take of Rohingya on the Bangladeshi side is therefore predictable and unpleasant. In any case, the Bangladesh government has little room for maneuver: according to UNHCR statistics, there are still 29,000 officially recognized refugees in camps near Cox's Bazar, remnants of the 1991-2 influx, with 40,000 more unregistered near the camps, and up to 200,000 living in a refugee-like situation in the border area. In June, the Bangladeshi foreign minister told a news conference in Dhaka, "It's not in our interests that new refugees come from Myanmar."

Aid agencies can do little to alleviate the situation. According to Vivian Chan, the UNHCR is trying to get Bangladesh to open its borders, as well as offering to help refugees in the two official camps, "... but we are unable to do more because of a lack of access to the border areas." At the beginning of August, the Bangladeshi government ordered three aid agencies - Medecins Sans Frontieres, Action Contre La Faim, and Muslim Aid UK - to cease operating in the Cox's Bazar area.

The international community can't do much either. Bangladesh remains outside the CRSR, which obliges signatories to protect persons "not having a nationality", who are "outside the country of [his] former habitual residence". So Bangladesh is not obliged to co-operate with UNHCR, nor is the country prevented by international law from engaging in refoulement - the forcible return of refugees to frontiers.

So tragedy and farce now combine on the Naf estuary, with numerous observers witnessing Bangladesh coast guards pushing boats back into Burmese waters. Senior officers in the Bangladesh Border Guards have told Human Rights Watch they have pushed back as many as 1,300 people. The BBC has published video of border guards claiming refugees have pleaded with them to be allowed to land, or just shoot them; but to no avail.

Probably the most rational hope for Rohingya is that Myanmar will relent and grant them citizenship. But this is their least auspicious prospect because politics is stacked against the Rohingya, at every level of government in Myanmar and in the international community.

Uniquely among regional assemblies, the Rakhine State Hluttaw is led not by the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party but by a local ethnic grouping, the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP), which won 18 of the 47 seven seats in the November 2010 elections. To the RNDP, the Rohingya are the enemy within.

Although this author cannot confirm authenticity, the party has apparently released statements saying they refuse to accept the Rohingya as an ethnic people of Myanmar and urging the international community and the UN to "set up a timeframe to resettle those who are not Burmese."

At a national level, the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, is unlikely to be much help either. Hoping for a majority in the national parliament's lower house, the Pyitthu Hluttaw, in the 2015 elections, the last thing the party wants is to espouse a cause that arouses emotional antipathy amongst almost the entire Tibeto-Burman population. Asked what she thought about the Rohingya, Nobel Peace Prize winner Suu Kyi pointedly failed to criticize the stance adopted by President Thein Sein, said she didn't know if the Rohingya can be considered Burman, and cryptically suggested that clarity on citizenship would prevent the problem recurring.

Meanwhile, the moral end of the international community is anxious not disturb Myanmar's glide path towards democracy and official acceptability. Brad Adams, Asia Director, Human Rights Watch, has accused countries of being blind to the violence while lifting sanctions and signing trade deals, although UK Foreign Secretary William Hague, speaking in Vientiane on November 5, promised to raise the issue with Myanmar's leaders when he had the opportunity to do so.

He might want to do that sooner rather than later. November is the month the Rohingya traditionally head for Bangladesh, only this time they will hit something akin to a brick wall. For those without hope, militant options beckon.

Armed Jihadis were well established in northern Arakan after 1948, and during the 1980s two guerrilla groups, the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation and the Arakan Rohingya Islamic Front openly established recruitment offices near refugee camps outside Cox's Bazar.

New jihadists would need cash, but the Rohingya have wealthy friends. News of their plight has reached the ears of the king of the House of Saud. US$50 million has been promised. And there are large, exiled communities of Rohingya in Karachi, Pakistan and Egypt who would be emotionally and financially sympathetic.

For Bangladesh and Myanmar, the situation could quickly take on a less tedious aspect. Because, if nothing changes, a brutal logic will prevail: if the Rohingya cannot be citizens anywhere, then why shouldn't they carve out a homeland for themselves?

Phil Radford is a freelance writer and international security analyst, based in Sydney.

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

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