Last month's Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit held in
Phnom Penh opened with high expectations and
closed with an ambivalence that has cast new
doubts on the 10-member grouping's common destiny.
While the controversy over competing territorial
claims in the South China Sea issue was the most
obvious point of tension, the lack of a common
policy on the implementation of a Human Rights
Declaration (AHRD) and disagreements on the
construction of upstream dams on the Mekong river
underscored the association's rising divisions.
Earlier, many observers expected ASEAN to
produce a binding code of conduct for the South
China Sea during Cambodia's chairmanship of the
grouping, 10 years after the signing by
ASEAN and China's foreign
ministers of the non-binding Declaration on the
Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC).
The consensus broke down during the ASEAN
Ministerial Meeting (AMM) held in Phnom Penh in
July, with the grouping failing to agree on a
joint communique for the first time in 45 years
due to dissension on the South China Sea.
Many analysts suspected China had put
pressure on Cambodia to refrain from mentioning
the issue in the communique, despite strong
lobbying from the Philippines and Vietnam for its
inclusion. The subsequent announcement on July 20
of a six-point principle on the South China Sea
made by Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong,
with consensus on the document promoted by
regional giant Indonesia, was viewed at the time
as a stopgap measure meant to paper over deep
differences on the issue.
At last month's
United Nations General Assembly in New York,
Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario
attempted in a speech to win global support for
his country's rule of law position vis-a-vis China
over the ongoing territorial disputes in the South
China Sea. Manila's wish to internationalize the
issue was clear well before the beginning of last
month's ASEAN summit, which was attended by global
leaders, including US President Barack Obama.
On the eve of the summit, despite China's
warning that the South China Sea issue should not
overshadow the event, ASEAN members said they were
ready for formal talks with their bigger neighbor,
even though they were still debating internally
their own version of a maritime code. Later on the
same day, however, Cambodian foreign ministry
official Kao Kim Hourn said that Southeast Asian
leaders "had decided that they will not
internationalize the South China Sea from now on".
Philippine President Benigno Aquino
strongly rebuked the Cambodian statement, saying
no such agreement had been reached. The competing
statements underscored the rising pressures on
ASEAN unity and the grouping's inability to
mediate members' often conflicting national
interests.
A photo released by Xinhua, the
official Chinese government media, on November 22
showing a smiling Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen
inaugurating a China-funded national road in Prey
Veng province in southeastern Cambodia,
demonstrated to some at the summit Beijing's use
of bilateral aid to push its wider regional
ambitions.
Whether the situation changes
after Cambodia relinquishes the chairmanship at
the end of this year is still a wildcard. In 2013,
Brunei, which also has a contested stake in the
South China Sea, will take up ASEAN's rotational
leadership. Meanwhile, ASEAN Secretary General
Surin Pitsuwan, a Thai national who many believe
has notched several diplomatic successes during
his five-year tenure, will step down at the end of
2012. Thailand does not have a stake in the South
China Sea and has attempted to play a mediating
role in the conflict.
ASEAN's next
Secretary General, Vietnamese diplomat Le Luong
Minh, is an experienced diplomat with
distinguished service at the United Nations. He
will need to contend with not only the territorial
disputes in which his country is directly involved
but challenges as diverse as Myanmar's democratic
transition, the joint promotion of human rights as
established by the AHRD and rising regional
tensions caused by the construction of dams in
Laos that threaten to undermine the environment
and livelihoods of riparian villagers in
downstream countries such as Cambodia and Vietnam.
The latter two issues pose serious threats
to future ASEAN unity. After the grouping's
inauguration of the Intergovernmental Commission
on Human Rights in 2009, ASEAN's 10 members
adopted the AHRD. However, the AHRD was strongly
criticized by regional and international
organizations as a paper tiger for excluding civil
society organizations from the drafting process
and deferring to "regional and national contexts"
in the mechanism's implementation.
"There
is no consensus on what to do after the 10 leaders
adopted the AHRD," said Termsak Chalermpalanupap,
who recently retired from the ASEAN Secretariat.
"Ideally the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on
Human Rights (AICHR) should use the AHRD as the
basis for drafting the ASEAN Convention on Human
Rights."
Some believe the forced
relocation of thousands of Lao villagers to make
way for new hydropower projects should be taken up
by ASEAN's new human-rights body. That seems
unlikely though considering the emphasis
individual countries place on ramping up power
generation and infrastructure development,
particularly with the implementation of a new
ASEAN economic community looming on the horizon in
2015.
"ASEAN is moving at its own pace to
form an ASEAN Community by 2015 but human rights
is an issue that has the potential to be
divisive," said Carlyle Thayer, an emeritus
professor from the University of New South Wales
at the Australian Defense Force Academy in
Canberra. He believes that while Cambodia's
chairmanship has accentuated differences inside
the association, there is little risk that the
grouping dissolves.
Indeed, the Lao
government recently resumed construction of the
controversial, Thailand-backed Xayaburi Dam
project without regional consensus and above
strong complaints from Cambodia and Vietnam. Under
the 1995 Mekong Agreement, Cambodia, Laos,
Thailand and Vietnam agreed to cooperate to
"optimize the multiple-use and mutual benefits" of
water resources and to "minimize the harmful
effects that might result from natural occurrences
and man-made activities".
As the Mekong
River Commission's member countries have not
formally agreed to build the project, Laos has
been accused of violating the non-binding
consensus reached among ASEAN members. Moreover,
the decision to go ahead with the Xayaburi dam
will apparently pave the way for the construction
of a second dam proposed for the Mekong River in
Laos and potentially stoke new ASEAN-China
tensions.
Designed by Chinese developer
Datang Overseas Investment Co Ltd, the Pak Beng
dam was first envisioned in a memorandum of
understanding signed between the Lao and Chinese
governments in August 2007 and civil society
groups say will have adverse downstream impacts on
the environment and livelihoods.
Roberto Tofani is a freelance
journalist and analyst covering Southeast Asia. He
is also the co-founder of PlanetNext
(www.planetnext.net), an association of
journalists committed to the concept of
"information for change".
(Copyright
2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights
reserved. Please contact us about sales,
syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road,
Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
