SPEAKING
FREELY US,
Myanmar face more tests By
Nehginpao Kipgen
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The warming trend in
US-Myanmar relations witnessed in 2012 represents
the culmination of years of diplomatic
maneuvering. The two countries had been at
loggerheads ever since Washington downgraded its
representation in Myanmar from ambassador to
charge d'affaires in the bloody aftermath of 1988
democracy uprising and the then ruling State Law
and Order Restoration Council military
government's refusal to acknowledge the 1990
general election results won by the pro-democracy
opposition.
Last year's rapprochement,
which saw Washington roll back
economic and
financial sanctions, was also a result of the US
government's dual-track policy, which has made
strategic use of carrots and sticks.
As a
condition for normalizing bilateral relations,
Washington made some fundamental demands,
including: the release of all political prisoners
(more than 2,000 held in different prisons across
Myanmar in the beginning of 2012), inclusive
dialogue with opposition parties and ethnic
minorities, adherence to the United Nations'
non-proliferation agreements on nuclear weapons
and an end to any illicit cooperation with North
Korea, greater accountability on human-rights
issues, and a cessation of violence against ethnic
minorities. The US also called for free and fair
by-elections - held last April, polls that allowed
pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi to assume a
seat in parliament.
First, a total of 651
political prisoners were either released or
offered a presidential pardon by the government in
January 2012. Those released included prominent
political prisoners, including leaders of the 1988
democracy uprising, ex-military intelligence chief
and deposed prime minister General Khin Nyunt, and
ethnic Shan leaders Hkun Htun Oo and Sai Nyunt
Lwin, who were sentenced respectively to 93- and
85-year prison sentences.
Second,
President Thein Sein's government signed ceasefire
agreements with several armed ethnic groups,
including the Arakan Liberation Party, Chin
National Front, Karenni National Progressive
Party, Karen National Union, Karen Peace Council,
National Socialist Council of Nagaland- Khaplang,
New Mon State Party, Pa-O National Liberation
Army, and Shan State Army-North.
Third,
the government held internationally lauded
by-elections where the opposition National League
for Democracy (NLD), previously banned for its
boycott of the 2010 general elections, won 43 of
the 45 seats it contested. The participation of
the NLD and other political parties associated
with ethnic minority groups boosted Thein Sein's
quasi-civilian government's claim to legitimacy
and the credibility of its seven-step "roadmap"
toward democracy that initially began in 2003.
In return, Special Representative and
Policy Coordinator for Burma Derek Mitchell was
confirmed as the new US ambassador in late June,
representing a symbolic upgrade of diplomatic
relations. US investment sanctions were suspended
the next month, followed by the removal of a
long-standing import ban on goods produced in
Myanmar in September. The suspension of investment
sanctions enabled US companies and multilateral
financial institutions such as the World Bank and
International Monetary Fund to re-establish links
with the capital-starved country.
The US
made three important achievements through its
engagement initiatives, namely: the triumph of
diplomacy over isolation; official assurances that
Myanmar is not engaged in any illicit engagement
with North Korea on nuclear programs; and a firmer
footing for its presence in Southeast Asia amid
rising competition with China for regional
influence.
Improved relations enabled the
US government to re-establish the US Agency for
International Development mission to Myanmar, lend
support for a normal UN Development Program
country program and facilitate travel to the US
for select Myanmar officials and parliamentarians.
They also paved the way for the US and
Myanmar to cooperate on the recovery of Americans
missing in action or held as prisoners of war
during World War II, a move seen by some as a
first step towards normalized military-to-military
relations.
Through improved bilateral
relations with the US, Thein Sein's government
achieved its long-sought goal of legitimacy in the
international community. Until the April
by-elections, the US and other Western nations
still considered the results of the 2010 general
elections, widely decried as rigged in favor of
pro-military candidates, as unrepresentative of
the Myanmar people. The suspension of sanctions in
both the US and European Union thus represented a
significant diplomatic turn for Myanmar.
The positive diplomacy culminated in US
President Barack Obama's visit to Myanmar in
November, the first by a sitting US president. The
historic visit was however criticized by several
rights groups that argued it was premature to
reward Thein Sein's government with such a
high-profile visit when violence still continued
in Kachin and Rakhine states and hundreds of
political prisoners remained behind bars.
Officials in Washington said Obama's visit was to
acknowledge democratic reforms and to encourage
further reforms.
While both governments
should be commended for taking bold steps to
improve bilateral ties, many important questions
remain. The primary concern now is whether
political gestures from Myanmar's government will
genuinely address lingering ethnic minority
problems, which remain at the core of decades-old
conflicts in the country.
Will Thein
Sein's government be able to broker a ceasefire
agreement with insurgent Kachins and will
ceasefire agreements already signed with various
other armed ethnic groups lead to lasting peace
and genuine autonomy? Will the 2008 constitution,
which currently guarantees 25% of seats in
parliament for military appointees, be amended in
a way that removes the inherent role of the
military in politics? Will all remaining political
prisoners be released unconditionally?
There is still uncertainty about how the
US will respond if these expectations go
unfulfilled in the year ahead. To be sure, 2012
was a significant year in terms of diplomatic
rapprochement between the US and Myanmar. The
longevity and durability of these improved
bilateral relations, however, will be contingent
upon whether Myanmar's democratic transition
progresses and deepens in a meaningful way.
Nehginpao Kipgen is general
secretary of the US-based Kuki International
Forum. His research focuses on the politics of
South and Southeast Asia, with a concentration on
Burma/ Myanmar. He has written numerous academic
(peer-reviewed) and nonacademic analytical
articles on the politics of Burma and Asia that
have been widely published internationally. His
latest article entitled "US-Burma Relations:
Change of Politics under Bush and Obama
Administrations" is scheduled for publication in
Strategic Analysis by Routledge in March 2013.
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online
feature that allows guest writers to have their
say.Please
click hereif you are interested in
contributing. Articles submitted for this section
allow our readers to express their opinions and do
not necessarily meet the same editorial standards
of Asia Times Online's regular contributors.
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