Odd bedfellows in the Philippines
By Fabio Scarpello
MANILA - Presidential hopeful Manuel "Manny" Villar's strategic alliance with
left-wing parties associated with the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP),
the political arm of the rebel New People's Army (NPA), has upset the military
and sown ideological divisions in the country's Maoist rebel movement.
Villar, currently trailing presidential frontrunner Senator Benigno "Noynoy"
Aquino by a narrow margin in opinion polls, has made courting the political
left a key strategy in his campaign to build alliances that can deliver votes.
National elections are
scheduled to take place on May 10.
Villar has built high-profile bridges with well-known leftists, Satur Ocampo
and Liza Maza, who represent respectively the Bayan Muna party and the Gabriela
party, which are both affiliated with the CPP. They are both running as guest
senatorial candidates under Villar's Nationalista Party Coalition.
In exchange, they have given Villar the support of the Makabayan organization,
an umbrella group of eight left-leaning parties whose various chapters are now
actively campaigning for his presidential bid. The CPP and its allied parties
have potential sway over three million votes, a significant bloc considering
the 2004 presidential polls were decided by just over one million votes.
The political alliance marks the first time since the restoration of democracy
in 1986 that the CPP has officially supported presidential and
vice-presidential candidates. Some analysts say that the move fits within a
long-established CPP expedient tendency to build tactical alliances or
short-term coalitions to further its movement.
The CPP has implemented a three-pronged approach to its four-decade long
struggle to change the Philippines into a Maoist state. Apart from the NPA's
armed uprising, the movement has over the years deployed mass movements and
participated in parliamentary elections to further its ideological agenda in
the mainstream political arena.
Party insiders believe that many of the CPP-affiliated parties will sever ties
with Villar, a billionaire property developer, as soon as the election is
finished. They believe that the alliance is a straight exchange: money for
votes, including substantial funds to the CPP treasury and contributions to
Ocampo's and Maza's election campaigns.
Villar has publicly denied making the contributions, but his claims have failed
to convince sections of the politically influential army. The military is
believed to be split concerning its preferred candidates, but outgoing
President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has backed the candidacy of Gilberto "Gibo"
Teodoro, a former defense secretary in her administration.
A source at the Department of National Defense told Asia Times Online that
"senior military officers are furious [about the alleged contributions] and
they will not forgive Villar".
The source added that "a coup cannot be ruled out if Villar is elected". Other
members of the military and intelligence services said similarly that the
Villar-CPP tactical alliance had been coolly received throughout the armed
forces. However, they ruled out any military intervention in politics should
Villar be elected.
One root of the military's frustration is the possibility that some of the
alleged contributions to the CPP may have been channeled to its affiliated NPA
and used to buy weapons and ammunition. "How can a potential president arm
those that shoot soldiers?" said a source within the military.
Under Arroyo, the army undertook a multi-year offensive against the NPA which
it claims to have diminished the NPA's arsenal and numbers. According to the
military, the NPA's strength declined from a peak of 25,200 foot soldiers in
1987 to just 4,702 in 2009.
The armed group, situated nationwide with strongholds in Bicol, Luzon and
non-Muslim Mindanao, is nonetheless still capable of inflicting damage and
stirring instability, say security analysts. Though there are several different
Muslim insurgencies in the southern regions, the government still considers the
NPA to be the single main threat to national security.
Peace overture
Villar has said that if elected he will bid to restart peace negotiations with
the Maoist group that stalled in 2004. He argues that the insurgency is a
result of poverty and that as president he would redouble efforts to address
this issue.
In an e-mail message to ATol, Villar said that "everybody's help is needed, the
House of Representatives, local government and the senate. The last group will
include [candidates] Satur and Liza hopefully."
The left's alliance with Villar, however, has sown divisions within the Maoist
movement - and not just over the ideological issue of joining hands with a
high-rolling capitalist. Villar's coalition currently includes Ariel Querubin,
a former marine colonel detained for his alleged involvement in an attempt to
overthrow the Arroyo administration in 2006, and Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos
Jr, the son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos.
These competing ties are known to be frowned on by some CPP and NPA members,
particularly elder members who were targeted during Marcos' martial law period
and remain committed to the ideological fight against Manila.
Many within the movement would have preferred to join electoral forces with
Aquino, whose mother, the late former president Corazon Aquino, freed several
CPP members, including party founder Jose Maria Sison, in a 1986 amnesty that
coincided with the People's Power-driven ouster of Marcos.
"Ocampo and Maza, like the rest of the left-wing pro-CPP, have in the past also
attracted the votes of non-communists that supported them because of their
people-oriented policies," said a former CPP member who maintains ties to the
movement.
"This alliance is likely to discourage these people from voting for them.
Villar is not exactly seen as a left-wing candidate and the money transaction
that has taken place is off-putting. Aquino would have been better."
There are indications that the CPP had flirted with joining Aquino's Liberal
Party-led coalition, but the unresolved dispute between farmers of his
partially family-owned Hacienda Luisita plantation estate prevented an accord.
Aquino and other Liberal Party leaders also could not guarantee that they would
accommodate the left's nominees into the party's senatorial lineup.
The CPP endorsed Villar on December 24, 2009, two days before its 41st founding
anniversary - when self-exiled leader Sison said in a statement released from
the Netherlands that among the four major presidential candidates in next
year's polls, Villar "seems to be the most patriotic and progressive".
The CPP has since praised Villar for advocating the interests of Filipino
businessmen, expressing sympathy for workers and peasants and condemning
human-rights violations.
Sison reiterated his position recently in an interview with Bulatlat, a
Filipino magazine sympathetic to the CPP, in which he said that "Manny Villar
offers the relatively better program, which unfortunately has been underplayed
during the campaign".
At the same time, he labelled Aquino and his running mate, Mar Roxas, as "rabid
exponents of the US-dictated policy of neo-liberal globalization". Whether such
ideological claims will be enough to win votes and put Villar ahead of Aquino
at the upcoming polls is yet to be seen.
Fabio Scarpello is the Southeast Asia correspondent for Adnkronos
International. He may be contacted at fscarpello@gmail.com
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