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Southeast Asia is experiencing sustained economic growth and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. Two countries are leading the region to further economic expansion - the Philippines registering a growth rate of 7.1% and Indonesia 6.2% in the third quarter of 2012 are the fastest and the second-fastest growing economies in the region.
Although the annual growth rate varies from one country to
another, the Southeast Asian countries are projected to expand over the next five years. A recent forecast by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development shows that the region as a whole is expected to achieve an annual average growth rate of 5.5% from 2013 to 2017. This growth, which characterizes the region today and will continue to do so in coming years, suggests the need to meet growing energy demand.
Energy security is one of the biggest challenges confronting the countries in Southeast Asia as they continue to depend on energy imports to meet most of their energy needs. To address their energy security challenges, they are showing an interest in nuclear development. While renewable energy sources such as solar and wind have the potential to address the challenge of energy security, nuclear energy is the only viable, environmentally clean alternative that can generate power on a large scale. In terms of nuclear plans and nuclear development, Vietnam and Indonesia are at the forefront.
The Vietnamese government announced in February 2006 that a 2,000 MW nuclear power plant will be on line by 2020. It has also proposed to build an additional 14 reactors by 2030. Indonesia is targeting four nuclear power plants by 2025. Other countries such as Malaysia and Thailand are also considering implementation of nuclear energy programs.
Although the governments in these countries delayed their plans after the Fukushima disaster in Japan in March 2011, feasibility studies are continuing, which suggests that they have not completely cancelled their nuclear energy plans. Even the Philippines, the only country in the region with a built but not operational nuclear power plant, the 630-megawatt Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP), is not completely discarding the idea of including nuclear power in the energy mix despite strong opposition from environmental and anti-nuclear groups. In a statement by Philippine Department of Energy Secretary Jose Rene D Almendras last year, nuclear energy remains a viable option for the country's future power generation.
Thus, despite Fukushima, some Southeast Asian states are still really keen on embarking on a nuclear path, mainly due to concerns about climate change and sustainability, security of energy supply and energy mix diversification, and volatile fossil fuel prices. However, a number of issues need to be taken into account before Southeast Asian states can go down the nuclear path. Two of the major issues concerning nuclear energy are public safety and environmental health.
The Southeast Asian region is prone to frequent and large-scale natural calamities. Due to the prevalence of natural disasters in the region, it is the perception of the general public that nuclear development is and should not be an option for securing and diversifying energy supplies, considering the potential risks associated with it.
The Philippines is a case in point. The country's BNPP was not launched because of safety concerns as the plant was built near major earthquake fault lines and close to the then highly active Mount Pinatubo volcano. Meanwhile, for small and densely populated states like Singapore, public safety is of utmost importance and consideration. The size of Singapore makes nuclear development in the city-state impractical and almost infeasible as the risks are greater than the benefits related to the role of nuclear energy in addressing Singapore's energy security challenges.
As a 2010 pre-feasibility study on nuclear energy conducted by Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry concluded, there is currently no available nuclear technology that is suitable for deployment in the city-state. Singapore's decision not to go nuclear is just for the time being, as the government awaits better and safer nuclear energy technologies to be developed.
Related to issues of public safety and environmental health are manpower and emergency preparedness or contingency planning, both of which are important factors that need to be taken into account. Nuclear energy plans beg questions of whether Southeast Asian states have adequate numbers of highly trained and skilled workers and whether they will be able to manage in the event of a nuclear crisis. Keeping in mind what happened at Fukushima two years ago, these concerns are and will remain valid in the foreseeable future.
An eventual nuclear crisis can have transnational implications especially in terms of public safety and environmental damage. As such, there is also a need to look into possible regional cooperation and address related issues such as nuclear safety, non-proliferation, disaster relief, emergency planning and response, and radioactive waste disposal.
On the issue of non-proliferation, member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are signatories to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapons-Free-Zone Treaty, otherwise known as the Treaty of Bangkok.
The Treaty of Bangkok was signed in December 1995 and entered into force in March 1997. The treaty bans signatory countries from developing, manufacturing, acquiring and possessing nuclear weapons. Thus, it only allows for the peaceful and safe uses of nuclear energy. It also obligates signatory states to ensure that radioactive waste is properly disposed.
However, it is noteworthy that there are no mechanisms and/or plans in place for regional cooperation in areas of emergency preparedness and response and disaster relief. Cooperation is crucial particularly in a region where nuclear energy is projected to increase in the coming years.
But whether countries in Southeast Asia can forge cooperation on these key areas remains to be seen. In a region where non-interference in internal affairs has become a norm, issues of liability and national sovereignty will be of paramount concern and will most likely be the ultimate bottlenecks to regional cooperation.
Sahara Piang Brahim is a Research Associate at the Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore.
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say.Please click hereif you are interested in contributing. Articles submitted for this section allow our readers to express their opinions and do not necessarily meet the same editorial standards of Asia Times Online's regular contributors.
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