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By July-August 2001, it was clear that something dramatic was about to happen.
Pepe Escobar, our "Roving Eye", was
traveling in Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan. The rumor was that
US forces were about to use Pakistan to launch a raid into Afghanistan.
Escobar's article, published by Asia Times Online on August 30, 2001, was
headlined Get
Osama! Now! Or else ... Our Karachi correspondent, Syed Saleem Shazad,
was meanwhile filing articles like Osama
bin Laden: The thorn in Pakistan's flesh (August 22, 2001) ...
May 2003
One
fewer reformist voice in Saudi
Arabia
In sacking the editor of
an anti-extremist newspaper, Saudi officials
have plainly shown that when it comes to the
voices of reform, their ears are closed. And
will remain so, no matter how loud the cries
become, if anyone else dares, that is. - Ian
Urbina (Jun 2,
'03)
US
support emboldens
Musharraf
Pakistan, as a key
piece in the South Asia security puzzle, has
been fully welcomed into the United States camp
despite its less than spotless record on the
democracy front. This tolerance could be
significantly tested as President General Pervez
Musharraf moves to avert a domestic crisis. -
Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jun 2,
'03)
Running
circles around Iran
Although the
reports have been officially denied, news that
Azerbaijan and Georgia could be used as launch
pads for a United States military strike against
Iran have not gone down very well in Tehran. Nor
in Moscow, for that matter. - Hooman Peimani
(Jun 2,
'03)
COMMENTARY
A
threadbare emperor tours the
world
Despite the smiles and
sycophancy that will greet President George W
Bush as he swings around the world, all is not
well within the empire, especially in
Afghanistan and Iraq. And there's trouble on the
home front, too. - Jim Lobe (Jun 2,
'03)
Why
Moscow won't back down
Russia
has a perfectly legitimate right to pursue its
nuclear collaboration with Iran, which is why
Moscow is standing firm in the face of US
protestations to the contrary. It is also in the
Kremlin's interests to retain Tehran as a
strategic ally, for should it "fall", who knows
who will be next? - Hooman
Peimani (May
30, '03)
An
Osirak in the offing
Over the
years, the United States has taken issue with
Iran for a number of reasons, but in recent
weeks it has taken specific aim at alleged
al-Qaeda survivors seeking sanctuary in Iranian
territory, and Tehran's non-military nuclear
program. In this regard, it is worth remembering
what happened to Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor
in the 1980s. - B Raman (May 30,
'03)
Shady
business: N Korea and
crime
Pyongyang has predictably
denied any involvement in recent shipments of
heroin to Australia. But the Australians are by
no means the first to link North Korea's
cash-strapped regime with criminal activities
such as trafficking, and of maintaining ties
with crooks all over East Asia. - Phar
Kim Beng (May 30, '03)
COMMENTARY
Double standards in US
nuclear policy
Even as it waves the big
stick at countries such as Iran and North Korea
over their nuclear programs, the Bush
administration is pushing a nuclear doctrine
that represents an abrupt departure from the
policies of prior administrations: witness the
development of mini-nukes. (May 29, '03)
Leading the nuclear
race
Since September 11, 2001,
George W Bush has been painting a picture of
"unprecedented threats" to the United States.
And so it's full steam ahead for the latest
"Star Wars" missile defense plan.
This despite evidence that there are
fewer weapons of mass destruction in the
world and fewer nations pursuing these weapons
than there were 10 or 20 years ago. (May 29,
'03) |
Suspect quiet on the
northern front
Not much has
been heard from North Korea's Dear Leader Kim
Jong-il lately, a welcome silence in which we
may ponder what must be done about his nuclear
weapons, if he has them. The options on the
table are not acceptable, least of all to
Pyongyang itself. Here's a thought: Why not just
let Kim keep his nukes? - Marc Erikson
(May 29,
'03)
Iran
and regime change (May 28, '03)
Leave it to the
Iranians
Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran has a
genuine popular pro-democracy movement whose
roots can be traced to the second half of the
19th century. Consequently, this is not a
process over which American hawks can exercise
control. Nor can they shape it to suit their
interests. - Hooman
Peimani
COMMENTARY
US dusts off nuclear
card
With
Iraq the US played the weapons of mass
destruction card. With Iran it's Tehran's
nuclear and missile development programs, about
which Israel has consistently produced alarming
analyses that Washington's neo-conservatives
have wholeheartedly swallowed. -
Ehsan
Ahrari
The geopolitics of
pipelines
 The increasing
importance of Central Asia as an alternative
source of energy to the Middle East, and United
States opposition to a key Iranian role in new
pipelines, are affecting Tehran's options, write
Paola Ceragioli and
Maurizio Martellini in an Asia
Times Online collaboration with
Heartland. |
WMD:
Will the real culprit stand
up
After seven weeks, the
failure of the US military to find any weapons
of mass destruction in Iraq remains an
embarrassment for the Bush administration,
forcing some people to question whether the
whole issue was a massive disinformation
campaign. On the part of Saddam Hussein, that
is. - Jim Lobe (May 28, '03)
Shifting
sands and the House of
Saud
Faced with external
pressures over its lax attitude toward certain
terrorist groups, and with internal pressures
building from an ever-increasingly informed
society, the House of Saud's rule in Saudi
Arabia is under question: there is an Arabia,
but need it be Saudi? (May 28, '03)
Neo-cons move
quickly on Iran
Iran's backing for Hezbollah in Palestine has never sat well
with the neo-conservatives in Washington. Now, charges by the Pentagon that
al-Qaeda agents based in Iran were involved in the terrorist attacks against US
and foreign targets in Saudi Arabia on May 12 have further strengthened the
neo-con case for a closer look at the regime in Tehran. - Jim Lobe
(May 27, '03)
THE ROVING EYE
The Saddam
intifada
A month ago, Asia Times Online wrote of how Saddam Hussein was betrayed by
senior Republican Guards, leading to the spectacular collapse of all resistance
to US-led forces in Baghdad. Now it emerges that Saddam has regrouped, and is
ready to put into action the plan that he had originally prepared for the
Battle of Baghdad. And he's even set a date. - Pepe Escobar
(May 27, '03)
COMMENTARY
Reassessing the 'war on
terror'
Apologists for terrorists consistently undermine effective
counter-terrorism initiatives with the argument that these will provoke
retaliation of greater virulence against soft targets. But not only do
these views falsify the ground reality of declining trends in terrorism, they
fail to correctly reflect the mood among the vast majority of the people,
especially in South Asia. (May 27, '03)
US looking for intelligent answers
As is customary in intelligence circles after any conflict,
the United States is reviewing its intelligence community to determine whether
it erred in its pre-war assessments of Saddam Hussein's government and weapons
programs. How Washington handles the results could have a long-term effect on
the nation's credibility. - B Raman (May 26,
'03)
 CIA:
Sinned against or sinning?
America: The
obvious emperor
It is fashionable to be opposed to US hegemony, but a multipolar world is a
myth. There is only one pole, and a multitude of historical and cultural
reasons why this is so. - Francesco Sisci (May
26, '03)
COMMENTARY
US: New
master of Iraqi oil ceremonies
Before the Iraq war, the United States was losing in the great Iraqi oil game
as France and Russia pushed to sign lucrative deals outside the United
Nations Oil for Food Program. But now that economic sanctions have been lifted,
the world's lone superpower has a stacked deck - while others are left with the
Joker. - Christopher Fitz and Macabe Keliher (May
23, '03)
Glimmer of hope for Iraq's marsh
Arabs
In what has been described as a genocide and an "ecocide", Iraq's southern
marshes - a vast area of wetland between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers - and
its people have over the years been systematically destroyed by Saddam
Hussein's regime. Now experts are trying to redress the situation.
(May 23, '03)
LEBANON NOTEBOOK
Shadows of the
past
Unless one knows where to look, the mass graves for victims of the Sabra and
Shatila Palestinian refugee camp massacres of September, 1982 are hard to find.
Yet the graves cast shadows much further than the Lebanese capital of Beirut
where they lie. - Paul Belden (May 23, '03)
America and its 'friend' Saudi
Arabia
If ever a country justified a regime change - if one were to apply the criteria
that were used by the United States to topple Saddam Hussein - it is Saudi
Arabia. Yet for years Washington has turned a blind eye because the Saudis have
been useful. And now that usefulness is over ...
(May 22, '03)
Ayman al-Zawahiri and the cryptic
message
Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's right hand man - assuming that they are
both alive - is purported to have made another appeal to Muslims to rise up
against America, England, Australia and Norway and their interests. Norway? One
may well ask. - B Raman (May 22, '03)
THE ROVING EYE
Iraq
showdown: Winners and losers
It's not only the Iraqis whose world has changed
with the US-led ouster of Saddam Hussein. The fallout from the events in the
Middle East has reverberated around the world, from Asia to Latin America, and
to Europe where the most significant realignments could be taking place. -
Pepe Escobar (May 20, '03)
LEBANON NOTEBOOK
A
lesson to be learned
If you want to talk
about democracy in the Middle East, let's talk about Lebanon, a Lebanese
parliamentarian tells Paul Belden. But let's not talk about "Occidental"
democracy. That's a very bad model. (May 20, '03)
Bomb jitters in Pakistan,
too
The multiple suicide attacks in Casablanca in Morocco overshadowed news of a
series of low-intensity bombings of Shell and Caltex gas stations in
Pakistan's port city of Karachi. While there were no casualties in the latter
attacks, their significance has not been lost on Islamabad's leadership. - B
Raman (May 20, '03)
Saudi Arabia: Less
talk, more action
After the suicide attacks in Riyadh that killed 34
people, Saudi officials acknowledged that they need to do more to combat
militants, but the jury is out still out on whether the bombings will really
spur them into action. (May 20, '03)
Al-Qaeda's deadly seeds
bear fruit
Any time that there is a terror attack nowadays, as with the recent ones in
Morocco and Saudi Arabia, fingers are quickly pointed at the al-Qaeda network.
But this is to ignore the radical changes that have take place in the
terrorists' world since the US invasion of Iraq, and the new threat that is
emerging. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (May 19, '03)
A gruesome warning for
Morocco
The facts are stark enough: 41 people killed in the mass suicide attacks in
Casablanca in Morocco. What is not as clear are the identity of the terrorists
and their motives, and it would be premature to automatically assume that
the incident is linked to the goings-on in Iraq. - B Raman
(May 19, '03)
COMMENTARY
Regime
change, al-Qaeda style
Saudi Arabia's most notorious son, Osama bin
Laden, and his al-Qaeda have long made known their contempt for the Saudi
monarchy and its pro-Western bent. The suicide attacks in Riyadh, therefore,
could be the opening shots in another kind of regime change. - Ehsan Ahrari
(May 19, '03)
Vinnell and the House of Saud
US company Vinnell, which trains
the Saudi Arabian National Guard, the country's internal security force, lost
nine of its employees and office buildings in the suicide bombings in Riyadh,
raising awkward questions about its efficacy. - Ian Urbina
(May 16, '03)
Saudi Arabia feels the squeeze
The Riyadh suicide bombings were gruesome evidence of the new
strategy of the International Islamic Front in which local militants around the
world have joined hands with al-Qaeda, and the severe pressure that this can
place on host countries, such as the heat that the monarchy in Saudi Arabia is
now feeling. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (May
16, '03)
India: US daisy-cutters or olive
branch?
New Delhi had been favorably weighing a request by the United
States to send troops to Iraq as part of a "stabilization force". Then came the
Riyadh bombings, and a rethink is under way that could radically alter the
manner in which India conducts its foreign affairs. - Sultan Shahin
(May 16, '03)
COMMENTARY
But we were focused on fighting
terrorism ... The terrorist attacks in Riyadh should serve
as a wakeup call for the United States as it flits from Afghanistan to Iraq
implementing "regime change". It is one thing to knock down a country's
government, it is another to put in place a new one that reflects the
aspirations and cultural and religious values of Islamic societies. - Ehsan
Ahrari (May 16, '03)
America's military
'imperial perimeter'
Since September 11, 2001, the US military has girded
the globe as never before, with one analyst calling the widening military
deployments an "imperial perimeter" that hems in the aspirations of regional
power rivals. - Marco Garrido (May 16,
'03)
|
TERROR IN RIYADH
The new face of terror
unveiled
The suicide bombings in Saudi Arabia mark the deadly debut of the
reorganized International Islamic Front that was founded by Osama bin Laden,
and herald the beginning of a campaign that could have a profound impact on the
whole Middle East peace process. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(May 14, '03)
THE ROVING EYE
Al-Qaeda: Dead
or alive?
Seemingly reinvented with a new leadership, and certainly a new
spokesman, al-Qaeda is back, and with the new phenomenon of "franchising" -
from a cluster of Pakistani-based groups to the Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia -
it is difficult to predict where the next target will be. - Pepe Escobar
(May 14, '03)
Triangle of
terrorism
Afghanistan and Pakistan have long been branded as breeding grounds
for terrorists. Now, with the devastating suicide attacks in Saudi Arabia, that
country confirms its position in a deadly triangle of terror that has for too
long gone unaddressed. - B Raman (May 14,
'03)
COMMENTARY
Shifting sands,
not shifting realignment
The decision of the Bush administration to station US forces
permanently in Qatar, and remove them from Saudi Arabia, is merely an
inconsequential shift, not a realignment of major strategic import, at
least as far as the Americans are concerned. - Ehsan Ahrari
(May 14, '03)
"Asia
Times Online has learned that new cells ... are in place and they will be
responsible for carrying out attacks - including suicide attacks
... sooner rather than later."
Afghanistan: Launchpad for terror (May
3, '03) |
|
Another Shi'ite leader now in the
mix
The leader of Iraq's biggest Shi'ite Muslim political group - the Supreme
Asembly for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq - has returned home after years of
exile in Iran. Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim is bringing out large
crowds of supporters as he tours southern Iraqi cities and demands that Iraq be
governed by Iraqis alone. (May 13, '03)
Politics
deepens Sunni-Shiite divisions
SPEAKING FREELY
War on Iraq: Implications for
sovereignty
Sovereign equality is essentially a fiction maintained by the international
community. Now, with unfettered United States supremacy and unilateralism, it
can be questioned whether the new idea of "sovereignty as responsibility" can
ever be realized. - Adrian Kuah (May 13, '03)
COMMENTARY
The US and
post-war Iraq
Although Washington should not try to impose its form of democracy
on other countries, a natural evolution toward greater political pluralism in
the region will far more likely emerge if the US ends its current support for
autocratic governments and relies less on military conquest and occupation and
the profiteering of US-based corporations. (May 13,
'03)
SPENGLER
The secret that Leo Strauss
never revealed
The notion that a neo-conservative cabal of Leo Strauss
acolytes, led by Defense Undersecretary Paul Wolfowitz, has infiltrated
the Bush administration to practice some sort of political black arts, is plain
silly. Just like Strauss himself. (May
12, '03)
COMMENTARY
From Cold War to Holy War
The new Holy War is based on United States exceptionism,
unilateralism and the spread of American values, and under the
neo-conservatives, it rejects the long tradition of attachment to
multiculturalism and envisages an American missionary empire brought about by
loud shouting and hitting with big sticks. - Henry
C K Liu (May 12, '03)
India's startling change of axis
Delhi's unexpected revival of the idea that an India-US-Israel "civilizational"
axis be formed to pit Hinduism, Judaism and Christianity against Islam and
Confucianism - at the very time that peace overtures are being made to Pakistan
- bears all of the hallmarks of an inspired move. Or perhaps a last desperate
throw of the dice. - Sultan Shahin (May 12, '03)
ANALYSIS
China,
Japan, and General Xiong
 As
threats continue to emanate from North Korea, China is haunted by the specter
of a rearmed Japan bolstered by that country's military alliance with the
United States. So improving relations with Tokyo is high on Beijing's agenda,
and the man emerging as the one to pull this off is an
intelligence-establishment general with some very interesting credentials. -
Marc Erikson (May 9, '03)
IRAQ NOTEBOOK
Soldiers
of the new front
An American soldier's job in Baghdad is no longer about dodging
bombs and bullets, it's about fending off sticks and stones, angry mobs and
verbal assaults, with salvation at times coming from the most unlikely quarter.
- Paul Belden (May 8, '03)
Neocons dance a Strauss
waltz
Leading neoconservatives in the US administration draw inspiration - if that is
the word - from German Jewish political philosopher Leo Strauss, who firmly
believed that some people "are fit to lead, and others to be led". Strauss,
ominously, also believed in perpetual war. - Jim Lobe
(May 8, '03)
America's terror tactics
in Iran
The accord between the US and an Iranian group listed by Washington as a terror
outfit could be used as leverage against Iranian Shi'ite clerics who the US
fears will exert influence over Iraq's Shi'ites. But the pact is more likely to
aggravate the already tense relationship between Iran and the United States. -
Hooman Peimani (May 7, '03)
Iraq's
special envoy, with a special task
 The
ill-kept secret that US diplomat L Paul Bremer III is to become the top
civilian dog in Iraq is now official. Given that Bremer has no particular
Persian Gulf or Iraqi expertise, though, the counterterrorism expert might have
other matters on his mind than democracy in Iraq. - David Isenberg
(May 7, '03)
PYONGYANG WATCH
Stalinism,
revisited
North Korea's baffling actions at the recent three-way talks in Beijing seemed
calculated both to gladden hawks in Washington and alienate the Chinese, their
last remaining ally, rather than advance Pyongyang's interests. How can such
behavior be explained? Aidan Foster-Carter offers a way to understand
(partly) the Hermit Kingdom. (May 6, '03)
The pendulum swings in Saudi Arabia
Over the years Saudi Arabia has managed to walk a fine line between nurturing a
traditional Islamist society, while pursuing a liberal, pro-Western foreign
policy. With the withdrawal of US troops from the kingdom, all this changes. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (May 6, '03)
ANALYSIS
Another
regime change in Iraq
In a possible sign that US Secretary of State Colin Powell is
reasserting his influence, it is now emerging that a career diplomat in the
State Department will be put in charge of administering Iraq, with seniority
over Jay Garner, the retired general who is now in charge and who is the
Pentagon's favorite. - Jim Lobe (May
6, '03)
Shuffling
the cards, once again
The American strategic
revolution
In both Afghanistan and Iraq, the
Marines and the army demonstrated a revolutionary capability for maneuver in
joint operations with navy and air forces, something that will undoubtedly
shape future decisions about weapons acquisitions and force structures. - Stephen
Blank (May 6, '03)
Afghanistan: Launchpad for terror
United States claims to the contrary, the fighting in Afghanistan is not yet
over, and militants from hotspots around the world, including Palestine and
Kashmir, are regrouping in the country for a new wave of terror against US
targets worldwide. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (May 2, '03)
IRAQ NOTEBOOK
Reds under the ruins
They've no need for guns, they want to give democracy a go, and some perceive
them as too pro-United States. Hardly the stuff of good communists, but that
doesn't deter the leader of the Iraqi Communist Party, who reckons he can paint
the new Iraq red. - Paul Belden
(May 1, '03)
COMMENTARY
What if real
democracy rears its head?
If fully fair and free elections are held in Iraq, there is always the
possibility that the results will call for the formation of an Islamist
government strongly critical of the US. The temptation in some Washington
circles might be to prevent this from happening. It would be a mistake. - Ian
Urbina (May 1, '03)
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