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 War
and Terror
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THE ROVING EYE
Arab Pipelineistan's high stakes
Gas supplies from Egypt to Israel and Jordan were shut off this week when an
"unknown armed gang" bombed the Arab Gas Pipeline. This is not the first time
the star of Arab Pipelineistan has been disrupted, causing acute concern in
capitals across the region. The discovery of massive natural gas deposits in
the eastern Mediterranean, however, has the potential to end any energy war. Or
does it?
- Pepe Escobar (Apr 29, '11)
 To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Palestinian move sends shock waves
Fatah-Hamas rapprochement signals that Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas has
chosen a specific path to Palestinian independence, forsaking Washington for
its betrayals on settlement freezes. The risks of the gambit are great, with
isolation threatened as Israel is pushed closer to the US. But Abbas perhaps
has other patrons in mind, and the deal has potentially momentous consequences
for Middle East politics.
- Victor Kotsev (Apr 29, '11)
When Montgomery comes to Nabi Saleh
United States President Barack Obama compares the Arab Spring to the US civil
rights movement, but seems blind to Palestinian resistance in many villages
evolving to use non-violent rather than shock tactics. Villagers are linking
arms and walking bravely into a storm of teargas, rubber bullets and injustice,
and America's lack of support blights the legacy of heroes like Rosa Parks.
- Mark Perry (Apr 29, '11)
US Hueys over Yemen
Washington has been arming and training Yemeni dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh's
security forces in the midst of a democracy struggle - see those new Huey
choppers flying over protesters - as part of an ongoing Pentagon program to
supply and train government forces. Yemenis - more than two-thirds under the
age of 24 - are likely to remember for a very long time which side the United
States took in their freedom struggle.
- Nick Turse (Apr 29, '11)
Summer war in the Middle East?
Military campaigns in the Middle East have historically happened during or
around the summer. This year, the game inventory is extraordinarily rich: a
great Arab revolution and counter-revolution, a growing crisis in the Persian
Gulf within the context of worsening Sunni-Shi'ite relations, a Palestinian
declaration of independence looming, and a speculative "war in or with Israel".
- Victor Kotsev (Apr 27, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
The Syrian chessboard
Syria matters on all fronts - from Iran to Iraq, 
from Turkey to Lebanon, from Palestine to Israel. But what the House of Saud
intervention in Syria is inciting, above all, is tremendously destructive; a
bloodthirsty sectarian epidemic spreading all across the Middle East (it
started in Bahrain).
- Pepe Escobar (Apr 27, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Why US fed detainees to torture
system
When United States and European forces in Afghanistan began handing over
suspects to Afghan security forces in late 2005 - despite their well-known
reputation for torture - it was for very different reasons. While the British
and Dutch were avoiding a US detainee policy tainted by accounts of prisoner
abuse, the Americans saw the Afghans as better at extracting intelligence.
- Gareth Porter (Apr 27, '11)
The great Afghan carve-up
With the United States seeking a negotiated settlement with the Taliban in
Afghanistan, the jockeying for influence by regional players is well underway.
Pakistan, China, Iran and Turkey have considerable interests, dexterity and
much to gain, though pitfalls are clear to anyone not blinded by the glittering
appeal of economic and geopolitical boons.
- Brian M Downing (Apr 26, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
AfPak comes to Africa
Why haven't they thought about this before; an army of drones (only five for
the moment, based in southern Italy) instead of boots on the ground? Pentagon
chief Robert Gates claims the drones will strike Libya for "humanitarian
reasons". The "cubicle warriors" will certainly raise some hell by dragging a
mouse, but there is only one way this is headed - stalemate (and "collateral
damage") as in AfPak. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 26,
'11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Syrian military strikes at rebels'
heartland
Bodies were left lying in the streets of Syria's southern town of Deraa as
troops and tanks pushed in to quell a rebellion against President Bashar
al-Assad's rule, with forces also deployed in Damascus. The sweeping assault
signals a deadly shift in security force tactics that's likely to draw more
international condemnation as the United States mulls sanctions.
(Apr 26, '11)
Assad deceives his people
As the bloodshed mounts, the Syrian street increasingly sees Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad's reforms as an attempt to buy time and avoid international
retribution. While Assad has lifted the outdated "emergency law", he made no
mention of freeing political detainees, dismantling the security apparatus or
revising the constitution - omissions that resonate with people who know the
regime's methods well.
- Walid Phares (Apr 21, '11)
New spy links to Mumbai carnage
Court documents that have surfaced ahead of a trial in Chicago next month
reveal that the two men accused of being the brains behind the Mumbai massacre
in 2008 could admit they were working for Pakistani spies. Indian investigating
agencies were sure Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had a hand in
the carnage and the confession will strain already wobbly ties. - Gautaman
Bhaskaran (Apr 21, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
Fear and loathing in the House of
Saud
That the United States has condoned Saudi Arabia's counter-revolution against
the Great 2011 Arab Revolt and incendiary manipulation of sectarianism shatters
America's "credibility on democracy and reform". For all its bluster, the House
of Saud's actions are essentially moved by fear and may lead to a total
radicalization of the Sunni-Shi'ite divide across the Arab world. - Pepe Escobar
(Apr 20, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
US denies trying to undermine Assad
The United States claims it is not trying to undermine the embattled Syrian
government, despite having supplied millions of dollars to opposition groups
since 2006. As doubts grow that President Bashar al-Assad's decision to lift a
48-year-old emergency law will satisfy protesters, such fence-sitting may
exacerbate civil strife.
- Samer Araabi and Jim Lobe (Apr 20,
'11)
Imran Khan in Taliban peace
spotlight
Imran Khan, the former Pakistan cricket  captain
turned politician, could be in the ascendancy as Pakistan's military looks for
potent and credible leadership for reconciliation with the Taliban. A fervent
critic of his government's alliance with America and US drone attacks, Khan is
leading a sit-in against military convoys that could act as a curtain-raiser to
his involvement in the AfPak arena.
- Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr 19, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
Mission regime
change
By jointly announcing the bombs will fall until Muammar Gaddafi is gone for
good, Washington, London and Paris have torn up the original UN mandate on
Libya. There will be Western boots on the ground - sooner rather than later -
and what comes next is even more messy: the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
as the weaponized arm of the UN, roaming Africa for conquest and plunder.
- Pepe Escobar (Apr 19, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Libya: calculated risk or
recklessness
Rather than humanitarian or strategic goals, Western military intervention in
Libya is likely aimed at avoiding wider inter-state conflict of the kind
historically sparked by revolution. The West must also be wary of Egypt
emulating post-revolutionary Iran's regional emergence, and be conscious it may
have dangerously underestimated Islamic militants in the rebels' ranks. - Mahan
Abedin (Apr 19, '11)
Saudi money wins Obama's mind
 Speeches
from the Barack Obama administration suggest Saudi Arabia's hint it may extend
the largest purchase of American arms in history has worked. In no time at all
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates has twisted from urging reform in Gulf states
to bowing to Riyadh's role in suppressing revolt and sharing its view that Iran
is meddling in the Arab spring. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Apr 18, '11)
Staying human: Vittorio Arrigoni's
legacy
The murder of an Italian activist in Gaza by a Palestinian fundamentalist group
- supposedly in retaliation for a Hamas crackdown on its members - has led some
pro-Israel supporters to cite a pattern of killings of "groupies and
apologists" in Palestine. This ignores international activists who faced
kidnap, harassment and worse at the hands of Israeli troops. - Ramzy Baroud
(Apr 18, '11)
COMMENT
Afghanistan might pull off a
miracle
Negative prognoses in Western media as the poorly equipped Afghan army takes
over from where a decade of international intervention has failed do not mean
it is impossible that Afghans can secure their future. Afghanistan's tumultuous
history over the past couple of centuries offers plenty of evidence that its
people are capable of securing their homeland.
- Mohammad Amin Mudaqiq (Apr 18, '11)
Drones shatter US-Pakistani trust
Pakistani demands for the United States to curb drone strikes and reduce the
number of its spies were a response to programs that have stirred public
outrage and gone well beyond agreements made in past years. The military
leadership no longer trusts American judgment, while the US may have put more
agents in because it was getting little help on Afghanistan. - Gareth Porter
(Apr 14, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
Fatal Tomahawk attraction
Libyan ''rebels'', by allowing Britain and France to hijack their revolt, have
lost their credibility. By imploring the Pentagon to unleash the "ground strike
capability" of its tankbusters and gunships to bomb their country to kingdom
come, they have also lost their moral authority. To top it off, they have
allowed Western and Gulf capitals to pose as carriers of the white man's
burden. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 14, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Doha group agrees to fund rebels
The international contact group on Libya agreed in a one-day summit in Qatar to
set up a "trust fund" for the opposition in Benghazi, with donations possibly
from assets frozen from Muammar Gaddafi. Members of the group called for more
pressure against the Gaddafi regime, but disagreed on whether to arm the rebels
seeking to eject him. (Apr 14, '11)
Libya all about oil, or central
banking?
 Justifications
for the involvement of the United States and its allies in the Libyan rebellion
range from human rights concerns to ensuring oil supplies. One remarkably early
action of the rebels - the establishment of their own central bank - may
indicate a better reason for backing the overthrow of a rich government that
offers its people free education and health services. - Ellen Brown
(Apr 13, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
Ceasefire or bust
London and Paris want a mad bombing spree in Libya. While the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization at least acknowledges it can't shock and awe the enemy
without provoking genocide, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi is not fool enough to
stop fighting while NATO may keep on bombing. It is the African nations that
have come up with a plausible ceasefire plan.
- Pepe Escobar (Apr 13, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
 Presidential
folly persists in Obama
Whatever the motives of United States President Barack Obama, by conforming to
a pre-existing American penchant for using force in the Middle East, he has
chosen the wrong tool. In believing that whatever the problem, military might
holds the key, Obama condemns himself and the US to persisting in the folly of
his predecessors.
- Andrew J Bacevich (Apr 13, '11)
The blame game is on
As the military campaign against Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi rapidly turns
into a dead end, European allies in the coalition have self-interestedly begun
squabbling among themselves, and Germany reportedly has gone it alone to
negotiate a ceasefire. With assassination the only credible threat to Gaddafi's
one-man show, the colonel appears to be anointing a successor.
- Victor Kotsev (Apr 13, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
I want to occupy you forever
The riposte to Pentagon head Robert Gates' entreaties for the Iraqi government
to allow the US to stay on beyond the end of the year came swift and sharp from
nationalist politician Muqtada al-Sadr: Leave as agreed or face Mahdi Army
guerrilla tactics. The bottom line is that most Iraqis share the Shi'ite
cleric's desire to end the Iraq chapter of the US empire of military bases.
- Pepe Escobar (Apr 12, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Al-Qaeda sees opportunity in
peace
Al-Qaeda will be closely watching next month's talks on peace talks with the
Taliban in Turkey. As a high-level al-Qaeda-linked strategist puts it, "Any
breakthrough in Afghanistan will pave the way for al-Qaeda to reorganize its
cadre and march to its ultimate war theater - the Middle East." - Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Apr 12, '11)
 SPENGLER
Israel the winner
in the Arab revolts
While President Bashar al-Assad may cling to power, Syria has disappeared as a
prospective player in peace negotiations and the unrest will undermine its
support of resistance movements in the Arab world, especially in Palestine and
Lebanon. More by accident than design, United States and Israeli dominance of
the region - imperiled by the changes in Egypt - will be restored.
(Apr 11, '11)
Hamas gets truce to lick its wounds
Israel and several Gaza militant factions reached a truce late on Sunday after
a weekend of intense violence. It is doubtful the ceasefire will last long as
new Gaza armed factions challenged it by firing mortars into Israel. Hamas has
been pushed into a corner amid Palestinian rifts and it is likely it sees the
calm only as an opportunity "to rearm and regroup". - Victor Kotsev
(Apr 11, '11)
Taliban try soft power
Afghans living under Taliban control say education is now encouraged, men are
no longer harassed for trimming their beards and extortion is less frequent. As
reconciliation with the Kabul government draws closer, it seems a newly
"flexible" Taliban is presenting itself as a viable political alternative. - Khan
Mohammad Danishju (Apr 11, '11)
China under pressure over Saudi rise
 As
the Arab revolts stagger toward denouement, China is doing its utmost to avoid
the contagion. It cannot however sidestep the fallout from rising tensions
between its biggest energy suppliers, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Since China gets
twice as much crude oil from Saudi Arabia than Iran, Beijing may have to comply
should Riyadh demand it help isolate Tehran. - Peter Lee
(Apr 8, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
Let me bomb you in peace
After learning the lesson of having his tanks bombed at will by the "coalition
of the willing", Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi is fighting light-armor
guerrilla style against the "rebels" and the air war is now useless. If the
"rebels" had their way and their own cities were carpet-bombed, collateral
damage would be horrific. The last hope for sanity in all this mess is Turkey.
- Pepe Escobar (Apr 8, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Israel and Hamas in a dangerous
game
Israel responded to an attack on a school bus with over a dozen air and
artillery strikes in Gaza that killed at least five people. As Israeli analysts
have repeatedly cautioned, it is only a matter of time before a full-scale
military campaign takes place in Gaza, even as the main players don't seem to
want an escalation.
- Victor Kotsev (Apr 8, '11)
AN ATOL EXCLUSIVE
Peace gets a new chance in
Afghanistan
 Major
anti-insurgency operations have been suspended in the Taliban's heartland in
southwestern Afghanistan and several senior Taliban have been released by
Pakistan. The moves are part of a new international reconciliation process that
could begin with talks in Turkey next month. For the first time, all the major
stakeholders, including India, are on board. Al-Qaeda's response will be
crucial. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr 7, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
The sweet smell of
counter-revolution
The House of Saud pulled its partner in the counter-revolution double act over
from the right side to the wrong side of history. As United States Secretary of
Defense Robert Gates meets Saudi King Abdullah to discuss the intricacies of
"US outreach" and "regime alteration", the current juncture spells out that
Washington/House of Saud winning, hands down, against the great 2011 Arab
revolt.
- Pepe Escobar (Apr 7, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Ahmadinejad hits back at Obama
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad predicted Barack Obama's future would be
"more shameful" than his White House predecessor, hitting back at Obama's
recent outreach to disgruntled Iranian youths. But while the rhetoric ups the
ante on strained relations, the surface appearance of a zero-sum, win-lose,
competition hides a deep pool of shared interests in the Middle East. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Apr 7, '11)
Maliki's doubts threaten US troop
plan
Iraqi Premier Nuri al-Maliki is backing away from an official request for
United States combat troops to stay past 2011, a request the Barack Obama
administration was banking on to shore up its legacy in Iraq. As well as facing
pressure from the Iran-backed cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to end the occupation,
Maliki has been forced closer to Iran by Saudi Arabia's aggression in Bahrain.
- Gareth Porter (Apr 7, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
Turkey: The sultan of swing
While Turkey's "strategic depth" envisions an informal empire ranging from the
Eastern Mediterranean to Western China, from the Balkans to the Middle East,
Anatolia is the ultimate Pipelineistan crossroads for the export of Russian,
Caspian-Central Asian, Iraqi and Iranian oil and gas to Europe. Much to
Washington's dismay, the Arab revolt is opening a sublime portal to a new
"global, political, economic and cultural order." - Pepe Escobar
(Apr 6, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Dangerous change rattles Bahrain
Bahrainis may be trickling back into gaudy
malls guarded by Saudi tanks, but they are afraid to carry coins depicting the
Pearl Monument. The coins, bearing the now-demolished landmark that is
synonymous with protesters' demands for political freedom, have been withdrawn
from circulation in one of the kingdom's many poorly calculated moves to erase
the recent uprising from memory. - Derek Henry Flood
(Apr 6, '11)
Islamists prepare for new role
Many Islamists have been set free from jails in Egypt following the fall of the
Hosni Mubarak regime in February. Rather than take up arms as they have done in
the past, there is a groundswell of support for them - and even al-Qaeda - to
join the political process. One key proponent is Yassar al-Sirri, an Egyptian
dissident based in London who himself is preparing to return to his homeland to
help kick-start this nascent process. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Apr 6, '11)
AN ATOL EXCLUSIVE
Thai peace talks come to light
After six years of secret contacts, high-level peace talks aimed at addressing
the roots of Thailand's bitter Malay-Muslim insurgency are moving into a more
open and substantive phase. The challenge now will be to give real
administrative, linguistic and symbolic shape to the conflict-ridden southern
provinces' distinctive identity on the one hand, while on the other allaying
the ingrained skepticism of both sides' hardliners. - Anthony Davis
(Apr 5, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
Billion-dollar Obama rocks Yemen
Protesters are being killed, a dictator refuses to step down, al-Qaeda is
thriving, the CIA is on the ground, and civil war looms. Welcome to the curious
case of Yemen, undeserving of Libyan-style humanitarian imperialism, yet where
President Ali Abdullah Saleh has just been dropped from Washington's roster of
"our bastards" as Barack Obama launches a US$1 billion re-election bid. - Pepe
Escobar (Apr 5, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Libyan waiting game favors Gaddafi
The standoff on the ground in Libya is quickly turning into a game of waiting
for whose camp will fall apart first. In an environment where it is impossible
to tell truth from lies, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, a master of double-talk
and disinformation, may do more than just thrive. In contrast, it seems only a
matter of time before the diverse alliance of rebels splits at the seams. - Victor
Kotsev (Apr 5, '11)
Goldstone now praising Israel
 Jewish
and pro-Palestinian communities around the world trashed the Goldstone report
on the 2008 Gaza war for being too harsh on both. Richard Goldstone, who
chaired the United Nations fact-finding mission on war crimes, now praises
Israel for bringing wrongdoers to justice. His personal reflection adds to the
chorus of opinion that the report was flawed and misleading.
- Sami Moubayed (Apr 5, '11)
Pastor Jones and a dreaded ghost
 Special
United Nations envoy Staffan de Mistura quickly blamed the Taliban for the
killing in Mazar-i-Sharif of five Nepalese guards and three UN employees
following American pastor Terry Jones overseeing the burning of a holy Koran in
the US. De Mistura has missed the plot. The incident is a wake-up call that if
pushed too far, non-Pashtuns will take up arms to counter the return of the
Taliban to Afghan political structures, and especially in the case of the
notorious Mullah Khairullah Khairkhwa, likely to be freed from Guantanamo Bay.
- M K Bhadrakumar (Apr 4, '11)
Arab revolts hand it to Hezbollah
Hezbollah is poised to gain from the groundswell of unrest spreading across the
Middle East. The weakening of the US-led alliance and rise of more
representative governments will continue to play to its advantage as a
transnational Shi'ite Islamist movement, while Hezbollah's penchant for
inspiring opposition to autocracies frightens the ruling regimes that
habitually cite it as a threat.
- Chris Zambelis (Apr 4, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
Exposed: The US-Saudi Libya deal
In the beginning, there was the great 2011 Arab revolt. Then, inexorably, came
the United States-Saudi counter-revolution in a deal where the US gave the
green light to Saudi Arabia's invasion of Bahrain in return for Arab League
support for the Libyan no-fly zone. Revealed is the Barack Obama
administration's hypocrisy, selling a crass geopolitical coup as a humanitarian
operation.
- Pepe Escobar (Apr 1, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Pakistan ready for Middle East
role
Pakistan has placed two army divisions 
on standby to help Saudi Arabia should trouble break out there, and is also
helping with the recruitment of ex-Pakistani military personnel for Bahrain's
National Guard. These are the first steps in Pakistan's decision to play a
proactive role on the side of Saudi Arabia to retain the supremacy of Sunni
Islam in the Arab world.
- Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr 1, '11)
Neo-Ottomans discover new Middle
East
Turkey is convinced it stands as a shining example of democracy for Muslim
nations, but it is far from becoming a shepherd for a new Middle East where
historical divides are being accentuated as America's influence wanes. Sunni
Arab co-religionists resent the Ottoman era, and Tehran is unlikely to welcome
the diplomats from Ankara now wading into Shi'ite Iran's backyard.
- M K Bhadrakumar (Apr 1, '11)
Egypt moved by deep waters
Egypt faces formidable challenges as it moves beyond the Hosni Mubarak era.
With elements of the old regime deeply entrenched in all aspects of life, a
genuine transition to democracy would require transparency and
consensus-building that is not currently happening. It is struggling to find a
place amid a torrid regional sphere, made more so by a looming water war to the
south.
- Victor Kotsev (Apr 1, '11)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
TD width= Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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