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 War
and Terror
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May 2011
Pakistan's military under
al-Qaeda attack
The audacious attack on Sunday by more than 10 heavily armed militants on a
Pakistani naval base has been claimed by the Pakistan Taliban as revenge for
the assassination of Osama bin Laden. Asia Times Online has learned that the
operation - which by Monday was still ongoing - was in fact carried out by 313
Brigade - the operational arm of al-Qaeda that is headed by Ilyas Kashmiri. And
the real motive is to sow discord in the armed forces. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(May 23, '11)
US troop surge ignored
Pakistan-Taliban ties
Ahead of last November's decision on a United States troop surge in
Afghanistan, the Barack Obama administration worked hard for an assurance from
Pakistan that it would limit clandestine support of the Taliban to counter
India - no such assurance was received. Islamabad's stance highlights a
fundamental divergence on Afghan policy that is much more serious than the
fallout from the killing of Osama bin Laden.
- Gareth Porter (May 23, '11)
India left out in Afghan musical
chairs
Now that the al-Qaeda monster has been slain, the United States has an excuse
to pursue reconciliation with the Taliban and crank back its faltering
counter-insurgency operations. With the American orchestra packing up, its
favored South Asian partner, India, is nervously trying to squeeze its way onto
a chair; thanks to signature US diplomatic clumsiness, Pakistan has reserved a
seat for America's main strategic competitor in Asia - China. - Peter Lee
(May 20, '11)
Delhi seeks a hands-on role
After years of opposing any reconciliation process with the Taliban, there are
signs that India is changing its mind. This stems in part from its reading of
the ground situation, where there is a measure of support for the
reconciliation initiative among the Afghan people. It is at this level that
Delhi, whose strength lies in public goodwill, hopes to play an effective role.
- Sudha Ramachandran (May 20, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
What Obama could not possibly say
The true intent of the dodgy "dignity versus dictator" rhetoric of Barack
Obama's Middle East "reset" speech lies in a simple tally: Israel mentioned 28
times and a big zilch for Saudi Arabia. Don't watch this United States
president's lips for the truth that a US-Saudi-Israeli counter-revolution is on
to smash the Arab revolt, or that "It's all about the oil, stupid". - Pepe
Escobar (May 20, '11)
 To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Osama as an Afghan exit strategy
With Osama bin Laden disposed of and pro-surge General David Petraeus headed to
Langley, the Barack Obama administration will meet no resistance in
accelerating the demise of the ill-fated Afghan counter-insurgency program.
It's a "mission accomplished" moment that makes a nonsense of the initiative's
high-mindedness and strategic objectives, but a swift "drawdown" is crucial
ahead of 2012 elections in the United States.
- Shibil Siddiqi (May 19, '11)
Reintegration hinges on turncoat
Taliban
Fifteen suicide bombers are pursuing Mullah Noorul Aziz after he left the
Taliban under a scheme to reintegrate militants into Afghan society. If Aziz
can live in safety, it would serve as a signal that people like him have a
stake in a peaceful future. But if things turn out badly, it could sway the
decisions of many former comrades he says are contemplating desertion. - Abubakar
Siddique and Mohammad Sadiq Rishtinai
(May 19, '11)
Syrian violence continues to spiral
At this point, specifically after the Libyan debacle, a military intervention
in Syria sounds like an empty threat. Regardless, Russia, China and other
countries (notably Iran) have become jittery as military intervention of some
sort may become inevitable. Even a regional war with Israel is not out of the
question.
- Victor Kotsev (May 18, '11)
 Arab
Spring or
same old thing?
Whatever the fresh start for American policy in the Middle East that Barack
Obama proposes this week, a record that shows that the president and the
Pentagon have sought to arm some of the most anti-democratic regimes on the
planet smashes Obama's inspiring words to rhetorical rubble. The Pentagon's
plans mean business as usual - and then some. - Nick Turse
(May 18, '11)
Trouble ahead in new Pakistan-US
phase
 John
Kerry, chairman of the United States Senate foreign relations committee,
appears to have put relations with Pakistan back on track, even while pulling
no punches during a visit to Islamabad. The Afghan war theater is about to
enter a "new phase", with Kerry's hosts once again on board. Those not buying
into any fresh agreement include radical middle-level cadre in Pakistan's armed
forces, and this is where the trouble lies. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(May 17, '11)
US flexes muscle in the Black
Sea
The United States agreement to deploy 
missile interceptors in Romania in return for a military transit base on the
Black Sea has the Russian strategic community up in arms as US anti-missile
defenses would break the regional power balance. In the "chronicles of the new
great game", it's no coincidence Moscow is also reviving the Soviet-style
"mutually beneficial partnership" with Iraq. - M K Bhadrakumar
(May 17, '11)
Prelude to an Intifada
Clashes at Israel's borders on the anniversary of the 1948 war may be part of a
concerted effort to start a Third Intifada (uprising). Flooding Israel with
Palestinian refugees from Syria and Lebanon has enormous potential as a
non-violent tactic, and has  got
Israeli decision-makers worried. More unrest can be expected as the
Palestinians prepare to declare independence.
- Victor Kotsev (May 16, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
Sunday, bloody Sunday
The next United Nations General Assembly could be a game-changer for Israel's
feeling of impunity as the new Egypt steps up to the podium. Yet Israel's
killing of 21 people marching to its borders on Sunday shows that after 63
years of unconditional support from the United States, the "pathological state"
has lost none of its penchant for killing Arabs with "maximum restraint". - Pepe
Escobar (May 16, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
The reasons why India celebrated
India at least for now will not carry out clandestine raids against Pakistan
and can only vicariously celebrate the operation by United States Special
Forces to take out Osama bin Laden, while also basking in the notion that there
is nothing like being proven right in the face of indifference, disbelief and
opposition. - Dinesh Sharma (May 12, '11)
US broke deal with Osama hit
The messy case of a United States spy operating in Pakistan strained relations
to such an extent that the countries sought international mediation to hammer
out a new strategic agreement. A key part of this was that the US would be
allowed to go after high-profile targets, with Pakistani assistance, provided
Islamabad was given all the credit. This never happened with the killing of
Osama bin Laden, leaving the Pakistanis angered and embarrassed. Such
operations will continue, though. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(May 11, '11)
Libya aviation show cannot help
NATO
Air-superiority fighter jets with secondary ground-strike capabilities, for
example the F-16 and the Mirage 2000, have failed miserably to change facts on
the ground in the campaign against Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, while the
French Rafale and the European Typhoon are proving highly effective. All the
same, shiny new air weapons are running low on time to win the war on their
own. - Victor Kotsev (May 11, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
Bin Laden out, Gaddafi next
"Our" bastards are left to do their dirty work in peace, but Gaddafi beware:
international law has taken it in the head from a bullet stamped "R2P" (aka
"Responsibility to Protect"), courtesy of war in Libya, drones and targeted
assassinations, including of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan. Luckily, R2P as a
humanitarian imperialist concept, as the end of sovereignty as we know it,
isn't fooling everyone.
- Pepe Escobar (May 11, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Hezbollah caught in vortex of chaos
Just as Hezbollah was growing confident its hard-fought victories would climax
in victory over Israel, unrest in Syria - its main sponsor with Iran - brought
such optimism to a halt. With supply lines compromised, the one thing that the
Lebanese Shi'ite movement hates perhaps as much as Zionism is the prospect of
chaos bleeding over into Lebanon.
- Nicholas Noe (May 10, '11)
Israel and the Bin Laden
assassination
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gained an argument once United States
President Barack Obama pulled a six-shooter on Osama bin Laden; Israel has
killed hundreds of Palestinian militants that way. But with the terrorist
mastermind dead, Netanyahu has to come up with a peace initiative. For now, he
is keeping his cards close to his chest.
- Victor Kotsev (May 9, '11)
US pushes Osama onto Afghan
chessboard
Osama bin Laden's death boosts the United States' position for talks with the
Taliban, says Washington. While a strike "so deep inside Pakistan" intimidates
Afghan insurgents, Pakistan - embarrassed over the incident - will stop
"interfering". This outlook ignores Islamabad's eagerness to begin the talks
and the Taliban's refusal to ever accept a long-term US military presence. - Gareth
Porter (May 9, '11)
CHAN AKYA
US spins web of self-deceit
TD colSpan= type= maxLength= border=5 size= American disenchantment with the supposed double-game played by Pakistan in
taking money from the US government while housing terrorists can perhaps be
mollified by the realization that much the same game has been played with
taxpayer money in the US banking system. Throwing other people's money at a
problem without full understanding or control is to blame in both cases.
(May 6, '11)
Pakistan seeks solace in the
Kremlin
Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari will make an unexpected three-day trip to
Russia next week. The timing underscores that Moscow recognizes the central
role that Islamabad plays in the Afghan situation - both share the view that
any peace process should be "Afghan-led". While it is too early to say the
"fizz" has gone out of the United States-Russia reset, Zardari will be keen to
see how this affects Pakistan.
- M K Bhadrakumar (May 6, '11)
Osama hit a wake-up call for
India
The boldness with which the United States decapitated al-Qaeda's leadership
inside Pakistan should be a wake-up call for India. New Delhi has been impotent
in solving the security dilemmas it has faced since independence, and cannot
afford to be caught off-guard as terrorist groups, separatist insurgents in
Kashmir and Pakistan's military now revert to old flashpoints.
- Chietigj Bajpaee (May 6, '11)
Osama
bin Laden's American legacy
The point has been repeatedly made about Osama bin Laden that by the time of
his death on Monday he was already a footnote to history in a Middle East
convulsed by the Arab Spring. What's not being said is this: The world Bin
Laden really changed forever wasn't in the Greater Middle East, it was in the
United States. And that change was for the worse in almost every way.
- Tom Engelhardt (May 6, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
Welcome to the post-Osama world
Almost a decade after 9/11 - and with the "dead or alive" promise finally
fulfilled - the answer to the magic bullet question on the timing of the Osama
bin Laden hit is that United States psychoanalyst-in-chief Barack Obama deemed
a symbolic kill of the "war on terror" necessary to purge America's desire for
foreign misadventure. The post-Osama cure faces monstrous contradictions, and
the Pentagon will fight on.
- Pepe Escobar (May 5, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Kicking around in South
Waziristan
In Pakistan's South Waziristan tribal area,  under
the iron hand of commander Nazir Ahmed, the Taliban and the state live in an
atmosphere of peace and normality, from football matches to a blood bank to a
girl's school run by Dr Taj Muhammad Haqqani. The assassination of Haqqani's
father last year by al-Qaeda points to the troubled direction in which South
Waziristan is headed.
- Syed Saleem Shahzad (May 5, '11)
This is the conclusion of a two-part report.
Part 1:
Taliban and al-Qaeda:
Friends in arms
Fatigue shows in Libya
The moral ambiguity of assassination attempts on Muammar Gaddafi is underscored
by the United States having publicly ruled out killing him. The North Atlantic
Treaty Organization's apparent assassination campaign against the Libyan leader
is indicative of its frustration and the start of an uglier stage of the civil
war. More self-declared red lines may yet be crossed. - Victor Kotsev
(May 5, '11)
AN ATOL EXCLUSIVE
Taliban and al-Qaeda: Friends in
arms
Nazir Ahmed, operating from his base in Pakistan, is one of the main thorns in
the side of coalition forces in Afghanistan, yet the United States considers
him one of the "good Taliban" with whom they can do business in reconciliation
talks. In his first-ever interview with independent media, Nazir categorically
rules out any dialogue until all foreign troops leave, and reveals how he - and
the Taliban - have been dramatically influenced as al-Qaeda prepares its next
generation of leaders. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (May
4, '11)
This is the first article in a two-part report.
THE ROVING EYE
Show us the shooter
The biggest manhunt ever ended with two golden bullets administered to Osama
bin Laden by a Navy SEALs shooter after the verdict of guilty as (not) charged.
A body bag consigned the "mastermind" of 9/11 to the sea rather than have the
CIA's dirty laundry aired in the trial of the century. The system that arranged
the hit will be happy; the rest of us will be left in the dark.
- Pepe Escobar (May 4, '11)
To follow Pepe's
articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
How Bush gave Osama a free pass
George W Bush's rejection of a Taliban offer to have Osama bin Laden tried by a
moderate group of Islamic states in mid-October 2001 denied the United States
the only opportunity it would have to end the terrorist career of the al-Qaeda
founder and his lieutenants for the next nine years. The absence of a US
military plan to capture him was in effect a free pass from Tora Bora.
- Gareth Porter (May 4, '11)
Syrian butchery casts dark shadow
As the Assad regime teeters on the brink and butchers its citizens, Syria
stands out as a greater headache for the international community than other hot
spots such as Libya or Yemen. The opposition has rejected the latest offers of
reform, army defections are starting to emerge - and the danger of Syria
collapsing into chaos is serious, if not yet imminent.
- Victor Kotsev (May 4, '11)
THE LIFE AND DEATH OF OSAMA BIN
LADEN
Pakistan has a price to pay
Pakistan's authorities were kept in the loop - and lent active support - as the
final stages of the American raid to get Osama bin Laden played out. What they
did not know was that the high-profile target was the al-Qaeda leader. This is
of no consequence to the previously neutral militant groups that will now
target the Pakistan state. Al-Qaeda will join in, while following its agenda
against the West and India. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(May 3, '11)
Bali bomber may have been vital
link
The capture of Bali bomb mastermind Umar Patek in Abbottabad in January may
have yielded vital information that sealed the fate of the al-Qaeda leader in
the same innocuous Pakistani city. Patek, who trained in Afghanistan when Bin
Laden was a mujahideen commander, may be an explosive expert, but was not
necessarily trained to resist interrogation. - Jacob Zenn
(May 3, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
Obama/Osama rock the casbah
It may have turned the boogie on United States President Barack Obama's
re-election, but the assassination of Osama bin Laden heralds a new breed of
hell. The West's prophecy that al-Qaeda, made irrelevant by the Arab revolt,
will react "with a vengeance" may be self-fulfilling, and the Arab world will
revert to barbarism instead of dreaming of democracy. - Pepe Escobar
(May 3, '11)
To follow Pepe's articles on the Great Arab Revolt, please click
here.
Deathly figures wait in the wings
The world is not a safer place with the death of the al-Qaeda founder. Dormant
cells can spring into action not only in Europe but throughout the Arab world,
and a replacement will emerge from a line-up of notorious figures who are
perhaps more radical and dangerous than Osama bin Laden himself. - Sami Moubayed
(May 3, '11)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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