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 War
and Terror
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October, November 2011
US may abandon Pakistan supply
routes
Even before the weekend NATO air strike led Pakistan to block a key supply
route for international forces fighting Taliban militants in Afghanistan, the
United States was exploring ways to sidestep increasing attacks on convoys on
roads through the Khyber Pass. With diplomatic, political, and military and
intelligence activities under review, diplomats say the Americans are trying to
secure three alternative supply routes. - Amir Mir
(Nov 29, '11)
US and Pakistan enter the danger
zone
Pakistan's relations with the US continue to plunge after foreign forces
breached the ''red line'' with Friday night's fateful air strike that killed 28
Pakistani soldiers. Islamabad's response stops short of declaring an end to
participation in the US-led war in Afghanistan, but the colossal breakdown of
diplomacy at the political, military and intelligence levels is a shocking
state of affairs for a superpower with over 100,000 troops in Pakistan's
vicinity.
- M K Bhadrakumar (Nov 28, '11)
 SPENGLER
Blazing Saddles in Pakistan
Even before America found itself on the defensive after the air-strike deaths,
the Washington consensus was summed up by the need to keep Pakistan on side as
a "friend" because of its nuclear capability. While Pakistan menaces the United
States with the prospect of its own failure, the simplest solution to the
problem of atomic weapons is to frighten the Pakistani army into eliminating
terrorists who might use them. The second-best solution is to take the nuclear
weapons away. (Nov 28, '11)
Egypt as crucible of Middle East
tensions
The timing of this week's Tahrir Square violence, just days before Egypt's
elections and as Syria's uprising nears a climax, suggests internal and
external forces are at play. As a visage of leaderless resistance is stripped
away to reveal the military's and Islamists' role in Hosni Mubarak's overthrow,
suspicions are raised that Iran is using links with the Muslim Brotherhood to
instigate riots that distract from its ally's troubles in Damascus. - Victor
Kotsev (Nov 23, '11)
Pakistan's ambassador takes the
fall
 Hussain
Haqqani, Pakistan's influential ambassador to the United States, has been
forced out of office over an alleged memo delivered to Washington in which he
is purported to have sought the US's help in preventing a possible coup against
the civilian government in Islamabad. The broader lesson to be learned from
"Memogate" is that the civil-military imbalance in Pakistan remains dangerously
tilted. - Amir Mir (Nov 23, '11)
Israel strives to impress
Speculation that Israel was behind an explosion at an Iranian missile base
won't vex Tel Aviv. It ups the ante on recent rhetoric amid war games and media
leaks on enhanced military capabilities, all timed to threaten Tehran's nuclear
program. The Israeli show of force is Tel Aviv's way of telling the world to do
something about Iran - or else. It also serves to warn enemies against
attacking Israel if limited hostilities break out in Syria or elsewhere in the
region. - Victor Kotsev (Nov 17, '11)
US creates an Iranian albatross
Iran has reacted sharply to a joint United States and Saudi Arabia bid for a
United Nations resolution accusing it violating diplomatic treaties and calling
on Tehran to cooperate in ongoing investigations into shaky allegations of a
terror plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington. American attempts to
pursue a pseudo-legal case of terrorism and to use its influence to target a
rival state at the UN could backfire. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Nov 17, '11)
Whose finger's on Pakistan nuke
trigger?
If it ever comes to Pakistan launching an atomic warhead, the final say would
be with the all-powerful army leader, even though in theory the prime
minister's finger should be on the trigger. All indications are that the White
House, despairing at the fragile government in Islamabad and reassured that
security is state-of-the-art enough to prevent jihadi sympathizers from hitting
the button, appears to like it that way. - Amir Mir
(Nov 16, '11)
Iran reels from twin blows
 Explosions
at a military base that killed 17 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards
Corps, including a key figure in Iran's missile program, and the death in
mysterious circumstances of the son of a former leading Guards commander might
simply be coincidence. Nevertheless, the mood among many Iranians is that the
country's enemies are now engaged in full-scale psychological warfare. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Nov 14, '11)
Pakistan Taliban chief snubs
peace bid
Elusive Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan chief Hakeemullah Mehsud has rejected
Islamabad's offer of peace talks by vowing to carry out more terror attacks and
to strengthen bonds with the Afghan Taliban. Amid more United States drone
strikes in the tribal areas, international terror experts say Pakistan's peace
moves are doing little but stir the vast al-Qaeda-linked jihadi infrastructure
along the border to attempt to inflict more carnage on the state. - Amir Mir
(Nov 14, '11)
 THE
ROVING EYE
Do the bomb Iran shuffle
Hardcore neo-con practitioners of the Full Spectrum Dominance doctrine are
hyperventilating at the possibility of a successful attack on Iran reshuffling
all the cards in the "arc of instability" from the Middle East to Central Asia.
As the warmongers leer at the targets in the pack, Iran is too enticing. All
they have to do is convince President Barack Obama he won't be the joker if he
fights another war. - Pepe Escobar (Nov 10,
'11)
US night raids killed 1,500
Afghan civilians
Analysis of coalition data shows night raids by United States Special
Operations Forces killed well over 1,500 Afghan civilians in 2010-2011, making
them the conflict's single-largest cause of civilian casualties. The strategy
has proved so deadly because while the US targets individuals, Pashtun males
are obliged to assist neighbors in repelling intruders under the centuries-old
tradition of "Pashtunwali".
- Gareth Porter (Nov 3, '11)
Iraq pullout threatens US Afghan
presence
The United States' failure to secure a continued troop presence in Iraq may
endanger its plans to keep soldiers in Afghanistan past its 2014 withdrawal
deadline. While Pakistan's safe sanctuaries and Iran's reported support for
militants underline regional support for a complete US pullout, US domestic
support for the war is flagging amid the country's polarized politics. - Barbara
Slavin (Nov 2, '11)
Karzai's Pakistan stand bemuses
Afghans
Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai has backtracked on comments that he would
side with Pakistan if the Afghan neighbor went to war with the United States.
The view surprised Afghans who believe Islamabad covertly sponsors the Taliban
and the Haqqani network as a way of keeping Afghanistan in constant turmoil. - Khan
Mohammad Danishju (Oct 31, '11)
US changes tack towards Taliban
United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, testifying before the House
Foreign Affairs Committee, did not dismiss the prospect that reconciliation
talks with the Taliban and other insurgents could include Mullah Omar. Whether
the Taliban leader is prepared to sit down with the US is another matter, but
Washington - and Pakistan - clearly realize he is pivotal to any Afghan peace
process. - Amir Mir (Oct 28, '11)
THE ROVING EYE
Real wimps go to Tehran via Baghdad
No matter how many "rightsized" United States boots remain on Iraqi ground
after the purported withdrawal at the end of the year, the "how to nail Iran"
gambit looms large. One neo-conservative plan - and is it that unlikely? -
would have Americans used as bait for an Israeli attack.
- Pepe Escobar (Oct 26, '11)
UN tally excluded Afghan
civilian deaths
A United Nations estimate that just 30 civilians were killed by night raids in
Afghanistan during the first half of 2011 glazed over that the raids' focus on
Taliban-run areas made information-gathering dangerous and inaccurate. The
average of five people killed per coalition raid "targeted" on a sole insurgent
suggests the real number of civilian deaths is much higher.
- Gareth Porter and Shah Noori (Oct
26, '11)
America's secret drone empire
Whether desolate airstrips or sophisticated command and control centers,
American drone bases are the backbone of a new robotic way of war and the
latest remote-controlled arm of the United States' power projection. Most of
the 60 or so facilities that increasingly dot the planet according to "evolving
mission needs" have remained uncounted and remarkably anonymous - until now. - Nick
Turse (Oct 25, '11)
Hidden blessings for US in Iraq
pullout
Washington's decision not to keep United States troops in Iraq after Christmas
seems a blow to US prestige in the Middle East, but withdrawal offers America
an opportunity to shake off an "invader" image and burdensome war costs while
still shaping events through diplomacy. Given Iraq's complexities, the
formidable tasks of restoring its independence and countering Iranian influence
are US goals best pursued from afar. - Brian M Downing
(Oct 24, '11)
 CHAN
AKYA
The two sides of
Pax Americana
President Barack Obama's Iraq announcement marks the beginning of the end of
Pax Americana. By retreating from the Middle East in the midst of what could be
politely called a stalemate, the US may be relinquishing its position 0BRas the
only country in the world that actually bothers to hunt down those who hurt or
kill its citizens. (Oct 24, '11)
Pakistani wolf to guard Afghan
henhouse
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit to Islamabad underscored that the
United States now sees the futility of visualizing Pakistan as a hostile power
and of trying to impose an Afghan settlement that is unacceptable to the
Pakistani military. The US has switched to a startlingly innovative strategy -
name=/TDHidden15B1/A to "incentivize" Pakistan by inviting it to play a major role in Afghanistan.
- M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 24, '11)
US puts the squeeze on Pakistan
...
 The
unprecedented visit to Islamabad by United States big hitters led by Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton underscores the brinkmanship underway as the US puts
maximum pressure on strained ties. With talk of a military conflict brewing on
the Afghan-Pakistani border, the unthinkable seems to be happening. Washington
is playing a dangerous game as it seeks a raison d'etre for bases for its armed
forces in Afghanistan.
- M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 21, '11)
... and Islamabad strikes back
 Repeatedly
under American pressure to stem cross-border raids from Pakistan-based Taliban
militants, the Pakistan army has hit back with claims that United States-led
forces in Afghanistan are doing nothing to prevent raids on Pakistan soil.
Islamabad has fiery cleric Maulvi Fazlullah in mind. Beyond the tit-for-tat, it
is undeniable that the mullah's fighters have regrouped after defeat in the
Swat Valley - and are as dangerous as they ever were. - Amir Mir
(Oct 21, '11)
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Obama totes his Iranian smoking
gun
The rhetoric of the Barack Obama administration has grown so loud that the
Iranian thread in the latest terror-plot narrative now stirring Washington
could serve as a casus belli for the United States to hang Tehran. More
immediately, the charges may serve to further isolate the Islamic Republic at a
time that Iran is locked in an intense power struggle with its US-backed
arch-rivals. - Victor Kotsev (Oct 17, '11)
Raging US pulls no punches
The United States has followed up accusations that Iran was involved in a plan
to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington with a call for the United Nations
nuclear watchdog to release evidence of Tehran's alleged proliferation. The
well-orchestrated and powerful jabs seem designed to deflect from American woes
at home, but Tehran will likely refuse to take the blows lying down. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Oct 17, '11)
Haqqani: Military or political
solution?
A divisive policy debate pits top US military leaders, Pentagon officials and
the Central Intelligence Agency, who want to put priority on pressuring
Pakistan to attack Haqqani network forces, against those in the Barack Obama
administration who doubt that a military effort could be decisive and support a
political approach towards the key insurgent force.
- Gareth Porter (Oct 7, '11)
Terror politics in the
Philippines
A spate of unclaimed bombings in Mindanao has raised concerns the Abu Sayyaf
group is being trained by Indonesian terror outfit Jemaah Islamiyah. However,
the attacks could be a political statement ahead of 2013 elections. Unless
Manila can address the poverty and religious issues fueling Mindanao's
conflicts, the island will likely continue to put the country in an unstable
light. - Joel D Adriano (Oct 6, '11)
Blood flows freely in Pakistan
 Thirteen
Shi'ites on Tuesday were forced off a bus in Quetta, Pakistan, made to line up
and then were gunned down. This is the latest outrage by the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi,
an al-Qaeda-linked sectarian-turned-jihadi group. It has significantly stepped
up attacks since Malik Mohammad Ishaq, one of its founding members, was
released from prison in July. The authorities appear incapable, or unwilling,
to stop the group as it goes about its goal of radicalizing Pakistan. - Amir Mir
(Oct 4, '11)
Awlaki's killing sparks
propaganda battle
President Barack Obama has celebrated the killing of United States citizen
Anwar al-Awlaki, calling him the "leader of external operations" of al-Qaeda in
the Arabian Peninsula. This description is at best a stretch, although Awlaki
had earned a fierce reputation as an English-speaking propagandist. - Jim Lobe
(Oct 3, '11)
Assassinations and destruction
of history
Aside from the ethical and legal questions Anwar al-Awlaki's assassination
brings, some of the most perplexing pre-9/11 enigmas will now be impossible to
debunk, chiefly what was Awlaki's real relationship to hijackers Khalid
al-Mihdhar and Nawaf al-Hazmi? Both are believed to have visited a mosque on
their arrival in San Diego while al-Awlaki served as its imam. - Derek
Henry Flood (Oct 3, '11)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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