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  War and Terror
    

December 2011

How Iran outsmarted the US on Iraq
United States Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's suggestion that the withdrawal of troops from Iraq deserves to go down in the annals as a US military success story ignores the fact that a semi-permanent military presence was the preferred outcome. The real story behind the departure is how the US was beaten by deception and diplomacy. - Gareth Porter (Dec 19, '11)

IRAQ MISSION [FINALLY?] ACCOMPLISHED
A dictatorship without a dictator
A democratic Iraq in a neighborhood riddled with dictatorships will not work, because Arab and Iranian regimes will always try to bring it down, as they did with Lebanon for more than 40 years. With Saudi Arabia and Syria, though, distracted by their own internal problems, it will fall on Tehran to continue its meddling ways in Baghdad.
- Sami Moubayed (Dec 16, '11)

Intervention ends with scarcely a whimper
When the US formally ended its eight-and-a-half year military adventure in Iraq on Thursday, hardly anyone in Washington seemed to notice, let alone mark the occasion in a special manner. People, perhaps, simply want to forget "the greatest strategic disaster in United States history". - Jim Lobe (Dec 16, '11)

THE OCCUPIED EYE
The war is pronounced dead
The tenor of the US's moving farewell ceremony, officially called "So long, towelheads", was likely to sound an uncertain trumpet for a war that was invented to get rid of non-existent weapons of mass destruction. And it now ends without the Iraqi chapter of the Empire of Bases the Pentagon badly wanted in the first place - and the oil. - Pepe Escobar (Dec 16, '11)

Soviet-armed Iraq switches to US weapons
As United States troops depart Iraq, high-tech US weaponry is flooding in, with America cornering supply for the army it devastated in 2003. While the Iraqi Air Force has been promised 18 F-16 fighter planes, a proposed $10.9 billion arms package includes Abrams battle tanks and Hellfire missiles. Not only is the deal generating business, Washington also relishes arming a neighbor of Iran. - Thalif Deen (Dec 15, '11)

THE ROVING EYE
NATO dreams of
civil war in Syria

By adopting a pincer movement from bases in Turkey and Jordan, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is actively diversifying into an Iraq-in-the-1990s strategy; to submit Syria to a prolonged state of siege before eventually going for the kill. But NATO's dream is to push Turkey to do the dirty work, even though this country remains the great imponderable on a complex chessboard. - Pepe Escobar (Dec 14, '11)

Did the Pentagon help nip the Arab Spring? As the seeds of rebellion spread throughout the Arab world, the Pentagon acted decisively. Trainers were dispatched across the region to provide security forces with in-depth training in the finer points of defeating uprisings. While the extent of joint military exercises in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Morocco is shrouded in secrecy, the suffering of protesters who have endured their results is clear. - Nick Turse (Dec 14, '11)

Deep chill envelopes US-Pakistan ties
With supply lines to American troops in Afghanistan blocked and relations suspended, cynics argue that Pakistan is taking its freeze with the US to a point of no return. The whole nation is convulsed in rage over the deaths of 24 soldiers in an air strike the West says was accidental and Islamabad concludes was carried out in cold blood, and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani is matching the mood. The American response is hardly helping resolve matters. - Karamatullah K Ghori (Dec 13, '11)

US outed, and far from drawn down
The eviction of the United States from its air base in Pakistan could mean the end of the drone war in Afghanistan, but holds wider strategic implications that reveal the Pentagon's hidden agenda as war clouds gather on another horizon. The US military now has a reason to re-interpret President Barack Obama's "drawdown" from Afghanistan, keeping combat troops there to help "box in" Iran and use its bases as a springboard for invasion. - M K Bhadrakumar (Dec 12, '11)

Pakistan Taliban shift focus to Afghanistan
The Pakistan Taliban and the government can't seem to agree in public on whether or not they are engaged in peace talks, with both sides issuing contradictory statements. What can't be denied, though, is that the number of suicide attacks inside Pakistan has dropped dramatically, while terror incidents across the border in Afghanistan are on the rise.
- Amir Mir (Dec 12, '11)

US moves for new sanctions on Iran
Legislation that would impose drastic measures on any foreign bank involved in transactions with Iran's central bank is making its way through the US House of Representatives, causing Tehran to warn of skyrocketing oil prices; the US's Iran policy has become an issue of political football.
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec 9, '11)

Tehran prods and pokes CIA drone
Iranian television has broadcast footage of military men examining a United States drone that Tehran claims to have brought down. The capture is more than just a huge propaganda windfall for the regime; the downed aircraft could yield a bonanza of secret spy technology so sensitive that US officials reportedly considered going into Iran to retrieve it. - Heather Maher (Dec 9, '11)

War clouds gather in the Middle East
While Israel basks in the American generosity of sanctions that are wearing down Iran's economy, civil unrest rocks its regional allies and sabotage blunts Tehran's nuclear and weapons programs. Tel Aviv is also focused on closing gaps in its high-tech missile shields, which fits with predictions of a strike on Iran by the second half of next year, although a war in Gaza may be needed first. - Victor Kotsev (Dec 8, '11)

THE ROVING EYE
The Dead Drone sketch
The Central Intelligence Agency's drone that went down in Iran is no more. It has ceased to be. It's expired and gone to meet its industrial-military complex maker! It's a stiff! Bereft of life, it rests in peace in a Shi'ite paradise! Its metabolic processes are now history, it's shuffled off its mortal coil ... but don't tell the CIA. - Pepe Escobar (Dec 8, '11)

Terrorists can also bestow favors
On the Afghan chessboard, it is impossible to accept Tuesday's twin terror strikes on Shi'ite worshipers at face value. The ugly specter of sectarian killings is a sudden departure from even the darkest days of the past decade. The party that stands to lose most from escalating tensions is the Taliban, with Iran and Pakistan big losers too. United States interests are, paradoxically, very well served if Western troops become the only credible provider of security in Afghanistan. - M K Bhadrakumar (Dec 7, '11)

Iran prepares to strike back
Increasingly aggressive responses to bombings and assassinations inside Iran that were almost certainly directed by foreign agents suggest the rising ire of the Iranian government, the political ascendancy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and the likelihood of sharper hostilities in the region. These could include encouraging Shi'ite uprisings in the Gulf, attacking United States personnel, and a wave of bombings against Israel and its US and Saudi allies.
- Brian M Downing (Dec 7, '11)

Bonn 0 + Iran
From transition to transfiguration is an apt description of where fragile Afghanistan is heading, with intense regional rivalries, exhausted foreign donors, internal corruption and a sustained insurgency plaguing the country with violence and fear. In this complex situation, the United States and Iran - both in attendance at the Bonn summit on Afghanistan - have every reason to put aside their differences and open a new dialogue on regional security.
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec 6, '11)

Pakistan retort matches Taliban demands
The Pakistan government's sharp retort to the air strike that killed 25 of its soldiers on the troubled border with Afghanistan matches much of the conditions that militant Pakistan Taliban fighters set for taking part in peace talks. Amid political endorsements for a breakthrough in the tribal areas come echoes of past accords that militants have used to strengthen their hand, ultimately leading violence to spiral. - Amir Mir (Dec 2, '11)

Pakistan attack a big loss for US policy
The story of what actually happened last Saturday - how and why a NATO helicopter attacked a Pakistani army post inside that country's borders, killing 24 troops - has been shifting all week, and the Pentagon seem unable to come to grips with it. But one thing is clear: The Pakistani government and people have become more aggressive in their stance against US activity both in their own country and in Afghanistan. - Gareth Porter (Dec 1, '11)

 October, November 2011


ATol Specials



Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)

How Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)

Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)

  The evidence for and against Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program

  Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi resistance

Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd armored cavalry in western Iraq

Islamism, fascism and terrorism

by Marc Erikson


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