By July-August 2001, it was clear that something dramatic was about to happen. Pepe Escobar, our "Roving Eye", was
traveling in Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan. The rumor was that US forces were about to use Pakistan to launch a raid into Afghanistan. Escobar's article, published by Asia Times Online on August 30, 2001, was headlined  Get Osama! Now! Or else ... Our Karachi correspondent, Syed Saleem Shazad, was meanwhile filing articles like Osama bin Laden: The thorn in Pakistan's flesh (August 22, 2001) ...

  

US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's recently leaked memo does more than provide evidence that things are getting worse in Iraq - it also indicates a change of tune for the man who previously sang the praises of a high-tech "Revolution in Military Affairs". David Isenberg

An American meets a mullah
Throughout his first real encounter, in Pakistan, with a fabled radical mullah of Islam, A Lin Neumann finds the going tough as he tries to turn the sermon into an exchange of views.
(Oct 28, '03)

In an effort to stem the growing number of suicide attacks committed by Palestinian females, Israel is dealing with the daunting task of trying to profile these so-called "martyrs". But due to a complex web of factors, attempts to pigeonhole these women have so far been futile. -

The fall and rise of the Taliban
It is two years since the United States launched Operation Enduring Freedom against the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. In that time, al-Qaeda has been dispersed and weakened, but the Taliban has successfully regrouped and grows ever stronger. - B Raman (Oct 22, '03)

TWO CENTS' WORTH
Opinion by Henry C K Liu
The war that could destroy both armies
In April, a letter to the editor of Asia Times Online critical of a Henry C K Liu article predicting that the Iraq war could "end the age of superpower" suggested: "Reread his article six months from now as a test of his ability to prognosticate." Six months have passed, and Liu takes another look at the challenges facing the US military. (Oct 22, '03)

Cheney's grip tight on foreign policy reins
When it comes to foreign policy matters, US Vice President Dick Cheney has the reins so firmly in his hands that many of George W Bush's supporters wish that the president would - or could - buck a bit more. - Jim Lobe (Oct 22, '03)

Surprise way out for Iran
Meetings between Iranian officials and British, French and German foreign ministers are being hailed as a success, with Iran agreeing to sign and ratify an agreement on tougher inspections of its nuclear sites. But what's surprising about this deal is the unlikely carrot thrown into the pot. (Oct 22, '03)

Dawood: 'War on terror' takes a strange turn
The US designation of Indian underworld boss Dawood Ibrahim as a "global terrorist" with links to Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda comes as something of a surprise to those familiar with Dawood's many nefarious activities, and raises doubts over the direction of the "war on terror". - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 21, '03)

Cheney's new adviser has sights on Syria
Never mind the lack of fanfare, the appointment of US Vice President Dick Cheney's new Middle East adviser, David Wurmser, should be viewed as a significant move for the Bush administration, particularly where Syria is concerned. - Jim Lobe (Oct 21, '03)

TARGET IRAN (Oct 20, '03) Nukes, subs, and (not so) black ops Recent Western media reports that Israel is only now taking possible pre-emptive steps against Iran's nuclear programs, while certainly ill-informed, are nevertheless well timed to play right into Tel Aviv's hands. - Marc Erikson  More talk, less action Contrary to what some in the US administration believe, or would wish for, there's not going to be a popular insurrection in Iran any time soon, so the sooner they engage Tehran leaders, rather than rattle sabers, the better. - Jim Lobe  Pre-emptive strikes carry hidden dangers As a tactic in pressuring Iran, talk by the United States and Israel of launching air strikes against its nuclear facilities sounds good. But whether such attacks would actually work is another matter.

Myanmar's Muslim sideshow
As it has done in the past in times of political crisis, the military regime in Myanmar has launched a major campaign against an internal minority, this time Muslims. But unlike in the past, the move has wider ramifications for the region and the "war on terror". - Cem Ozturk (Oct 20, '03)

No end to US troubles
Trouble on the United States home front, trouble on the Iraqi war front, indeed, trouble at every turn. And with Shi'ites showing signs of aggression, there's more trouble on the way. - Jim Lobe (Oct 20, '03)

US and UN: Legitimacy vs sovereignty The current tension between the United States and the United Nations arises from the fact that the UN is organized on a legal principle that is continental European in origin - the principle of the 1648 Peace of Westphalia. It is a principle that the US not only never accepted, but actively opposed throughout its history. - Criton M Zoakos The UN and the Iraqi occupation Well-spun by US and British press handlers, the unanimous passage of UN Security Council Resolution 1511 has been reported as a victory for American diplomacy. And so it was, in the sense that a bald man winning a hair brush in a raffle could claim a victory. (Oct 20, '03)

Whose god is 'real' and 'bigger'?
Recent comments made by William "Jerry" Boykin, a devout Christian leading the United States hunt for Osama bin Laden, make it clear that Boykin has more in common with bin Laden than he'd like to admit. - Ehsan Ahrari (Oct 20, '03) 

Bush, bin Laden and abandoned baby Apec
The spotlight was on George W Bush as he arrived in Thailand for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, which he used to stir up enthusiasm for his "war on terror". But the main antagonist in that war, Osama bin Laden, stole some of the limelight for himself. - Richard S Ehrlich (Oct 20, '03)

Anti-empire forces strike back
A newly-formed coalition of foreign policy experts from across the political spectrum, concerned that the US is moving in a dangerous direction toward empire, has already set its sights on neo-conservative strategists in and around the administration. - Jim Lobe (Oct 17, '03)

Osama's shadow over Israel
Three terrorist incidents, including the latest fatal bombing of a US convoy in Gaza, do not fall into the normal pattern of strikes against Israel and its interests. B Raman detects the influence of Osama bin Laden on the Palestinian jihadists. (Oct 17, '03)

Women of terror add to Palestinian arsenal
From being young, male, unmarried and fanatically religious, the profile of Palestinian suicide bombers has changed markedly to include educated young women, a development that makes countering the attackers all the more difficult. - Sudha Ramachandran (Oct 17, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
It's all about the Iraqi people
All the United Nations resolutions in the world on Iraq (witness the latest one)are meaningless unless they truly pave the way for the Bush administration to give a crucial role to the UN and spell out a timetable for the return of full sovereignty to the people of Iraq. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 17, '03)

When 500-pound gorillas fight
The odds are stacked against United States National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice as she deals with the unwelcome attention of her recent appointment to head stabilization programs in Iraq and Afghanistan, all the while trying to stay out of Donald Rumsfeld and Colin Powell's way. - Ehsan Ahrari (Oct 16, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
Iran and al-Qaeda: Odd bedfellows
Fingers are being pointed at Iran, not over nuclear matters this time, but over the alleged connivance of a section of its hierarchy to allow al-Qaeda members, including Osama bin Laden's son, Saad, to operate from Iranian soil. Somehow, though, the charges just don't add up. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 16, '03)

Muslim nations strike a discordant note
As it meets this week in Malaysia, the Organization of Islamic Conference, the only and the most representative organization for Muslims, will once again attempt to shake off its label as a body that invariably flatters to deceive. To do this, though, its leaders will have to put on an unaccustomed display of unity. - K Gajendra Singh (Oct 15, '03)

Ummah stands divided
Although the Organization of Islamic Conference serves to represent all Muslims, the Islamic world rallies more to causes that resonate with national interest than pan-Islamic ones, wherein lie the roots of its divisions. - Phar Kim Beng (Oct 15, '03)

US explores Afghanistan exit options
Recent US moves in Afghanistan could be seen as attempts to bring stability to the troubled country. They could also, quite conceivably, be viewed as initiatives to pave the way for a US exit. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 14, '03)

Arab regimes reaching 'critical mass'
The confluence of the forces of discontent in the Muslim world, fueled by those who transcend the profile of pigeon-holed extremists and the continued exposure to Western-style government, threatens to extinguish the old rule in much of the Middle East. (Oct 14, '03)

SPEAKING FREELY
Lessons unlearned
For a number of Arabs, the current situation in US-occupied Iraq is reminiscent of the many failed attempts by the West to "liberate" the Middle East, leading them to wonder not whether history will repeat itself, but on what scale. - M Iftikhar Malik (Oct 14, '03)

Muslim Nobel sends a strong message
The awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to Iran's Shirin Ebadi might turn out to provide a strong impulse in the direction of a renaissance, if not a social revolution, that would sweep the autocracies of the Muslim world into the dustbin of history. - Ehsan Ahrari (Oct 14, '03)

Ayatollahs grin and bear Peace award
The award of the Nobel Peace Prize to a Muslim Iranian woman is being celebrated around the world, except among Iran's hardline rulers. But they have little choice at this stage other than to bite their tongues. - Safa Haeri (Oct 14, '03)

THE ROVING EYE - EXCLUSIVE
A Shi'ite warning to America
Iraq's Shi'ites speak with several very influential voices, which Pepe Escobar hears loud and clear, and their message is: Shi'ites are not happy with the situation at present, and unless it changes, so will their passive wait-and-see approach to the US presence in their country. (Oct 10, '03)

The hammer poised to strike in Pakistan
The various organizations seeking to attack US interests in Pakistan have proved difficult to curtail. The unrest stirred by the assassination of a leading anti-Shi'ite politician, then, although touted as a sectarian killing, could provide Pakistani authorities with the opportunity it needs to strike hard. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 10, '03)

No money, no play: US on the brink in Iraq
Three possible candidates could pick up the multi-billion dollar tab for the occupation and reconstruction of Iraq: the Iraqi people (through their oil), US taxpayers, or donor countries. As things stand, not one of the three, nor a combination of them, is likely to deliver. Which would leave the US with only one option: get out. - Herbert Docena (Oct 9, '03)

The transformation of Donald Rumsfeld
Known for his vision of what the US military should look like as a result of transformation, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is undergoing a change of his own, especially with regard to the role of NATO in global security. - Eshan Ahrari (Oct 9, '03)

Neo-con fingerprints on Syria raid
Gushing is perhaps not quite the word, but US President George W Bush was certainly positive in his response to Israel's strike into Syria, indicating not only that the neo-conservatives still hold sway over foreign policy issues, but that they might have found themselves a fresh target. - Jim Lobe (Oct 8, '03)

Syria: Odd one out in tough neighbourhood
Bombed by Israel, flanked by US-occupied Iraq, threatened by Washington and surrounded by pro-West neighbours too cowed to support her, Syria finds itself with its back against the wall. The next casualty in the war on terrorism? Iason Athanasiadis reports from Damascus. (Oct 8, '03)

Turkey marches boldly into Iraq
By succumbing to US pressure and authorizing the dispatch of troops into Iraq, Turkey has once again proven that money talks. But there are other, bigger benefits that Ankara could reap. - K Gajendra Singh (Oct 8, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
Going mobile
Turkish troops will soon be marching around Iraq, although there has been some surprise opposition from within the country to their deployment. Also on the move are a Kurdish, an Egyptian and a Kuwaiti company, awarded brand new mobile phone licenses. Or that is what one is supposed to believe. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 8, '03)

Japan contemplates Iraq conundrum
Tokyo has stepped up its promise to deploy troops to Iraq in hopes of maintaining friendly relations with Washington. Yet the real issue seems to revolve not around rebuilding Iraq, but how Japan can increase its visibility in the Middle East without getting too close to the danger zone - and without being saddled with too much of the bill. - Axel Berkofsky (Oct 8, '03)

House of Saud in a bind
Saudi Arabia, by tightening the leash on militant groups within Saudi society - both physically and financially - makes itself a target for these groups. Yet this is what it has to do if it is to remain onside with the United States. (Oct 8, '03)

COMMENTARY
Time for US to preempt Mideast instability
Israel's air strike inside Syria on Sunday was a message not only to Damascus but to its other Middle Eastern neighbors that it can and will follow the precedent of its US sponsor to violate national sovereignty to wage its own "war on terror". The instability this new policy could cause in the region, however, will be more bad news for the United States. (Oct 7, '03)

TAMING THE TORRID ZONE (Oct 7, '03) "There have been some rather significant activities that the Pakistani forces have taken against the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and I think this is a very good omen." - US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage while in Afghanistan on the weekend. Asia Times Online examines why the omens are not good. A war short on substance, long on form High-profile raids against low-profile targets, while good publicity, will not win the war in Afghanistan for the United States. Nor will deals with the "devil", in this case the Taliban. But maybe the aim is not to win, but to set the stage for a graceful exit. - Syed Saleem Shahzad Twin approach blurs goals The US strategy in Afghanistan has two distinct thrusts: the war against the Taliban, al-Qaeda and the Hizb-e-Islami, and the support of Hamid Karzai's regime. Unfortunately, these two simultaneous endeavors have, at times, worked at cross-purposes.  Warlords stand in the way Any efforts to draft a new constitution, hold elections or bring even a hint of stability to Afghanistan will fail unless the power of the warlords is broken. The only problem is that the US is the chief sponsor of some of the worst warlords.

When all else fails, reorganize
American soldiers in Iraq continue to die and weapons of mass destruction are nowhere to be found. But rather than admitting to failure, and handing the administration of Iraq over to the United Nations, the US continues to plough its own furrow. - Ehsan Ahrari (Oct 7, '03)

Benefits of a miss/atimes//images/condi-small.gifFONT color=#999999 size=1ion to Mosul
Under renewed pressure to dispatch troops to Iraq, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun understands that a commitment to bail out Washington might guarantee a coordinated Washington-Seoul policy toward North Korea. However, it is unclear whether Seoul is really in a strong enough position for this kind of horse-trade with its US ally. - Jamie Miyazaki (Oct 7, '03)

Another bad day at the office
It must seem like a bad dream for America's Republicans, especially those on Capitol Hill who are being asked by the president to defend things they abhor, revile things they cherish, and pretend that the public "outing" of an intelligence officer is just another day at the office. - Jim Lobe (Oct 6, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
Selective reading and choice friends
Elements in the Bush administration refuse to believe that Iraq destroyed its weapons of mass destruction after the Gulf War of 1991, despite the evidence, which Asia Times Online has also seen. It should not be a surprise, then, that these same elements continue to put their trust in Ahmad Chalabi, founder of the Iraqi National Congress. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 6, '03)

ON THE BORDERLINE A 6-part ATol special (Oct '03) 1: Soldiers head for the frontier 2: All quiet on the Dandong front 3: The past returns to Ji'an 4: Historic city tightens up 5: A slice of Korea in China 6: Sorrows of a North Korean girl Editor's note: ATol does China a favor

Pakistan: FBI rules the roost The latest operation in Pakistan in which a number of suspected al-Qaeda fighters were killed is just another example of how the US Federal Bureau of Investigation has consolidated its position in the country, to the extent that is marginalizing local authorities. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 3, '03)

Osama, oracles and opportunities
Personal attacks on Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf in tapes released to al-Jazeera television have been attributed to Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda cohorts. Their timing, though, raises serious doubts over the identity of the real oracle. - B Raman (Oct 3, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
The American Saddam
It was easy enough for the United States to break Iraq, now the problem is to fix it, and fix it in such a way that it does not become just a US version of Saddam Hussein's regime. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 3, '03)

WMD: 'You have got to be kidding'
There is a growing increase in the willingness of US intelligence officials to express their skepticism over their administration's claims on weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Two such people speak to Asia Times Online, and not only are they skeptical, they are unhappy. - Nir Rosen (Oct 3, '03)

We report, you get it wrong
From weapons of mass destruction to al-Qaeda links, a major study released in Washington has found that Americans who watch commercial television news are getting the facts about the Iraq War all wrong. More specifically, Fox News viewers failed miserably when asked some basic questions regarding the situation in Iraq.
- Jim Lobe (Oct 3, '03)

SPENGLER
How 'cherry-picking' militant Islam can win
By "cherry-picking" aspects of Western culture, let's say for instance the concept of tragedy, militant Islam might well have a chance of defeating the West. The West can fight back, though, as long as it remembers that he wins who best can tolerate instability. (Oct 2, '03)

It's the US policy, stupid
In a Muslim world increasingly hostile towards the United States, the Bush administration is wont to question how better to "sell" or "spin" itself, which avoids the real problem - the policy itself. - Jim Lobe (Oct 2, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
The marvels of de-Ba'athification
In much of Iraq, and especially in the Sunni triangle, the heartland from which the former Ba'ath Party drew most of its members, the stark reality is one of unemployment, lack of government and poor security. Ba'athists are not allowed to fill this void. Their alternative hardly bears contemplating. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 2, '03)

NORTH KOREA: ON THE BORDERLINE
Part 4: Historic city tightens up
The residents of Ji'an, one of the three major border points between China and North Korea, say all is peaceful. But recent events, and the dubious official explanations for them, belie the residents' calm, and sources say several thousand of an eventual force of up to 30,000 extra troops are already in the area. - Miao Ye (Oct 2, '03)

IRAQ: THE BLOOD FLOWS (Oct 1, '03) US wounded in the shadows While the numbers of US soldiers killed in Iraq are well disseminated, the numbers of those injured - whether in action or not, physically or mentally - are less transparent. What is clear, though, is that the figures are disturbingly high. - David Isenberg Awkward questions over civilian deaths Civilian casualties in Iraq - which some estimate may be nearing 9,000 - are routinely dismissed by the US military as the unavoidable by-product of war. As the numbers mount, though, the manner in which the war is now being fought comes into question. Sharks are circling in Washington Deceit, venality and corruption, incompetence, betrayal, if not treason. It's not a pretty list, but it includes just some of the recent accusations leveled against the Bush administration, and readily being seized on by those who scent blood. - Jim Lobe