By July-August 2001, it was clear that something dramatic was about to happen. Pepe Escobar, our "Roving Eye", was
traveling in Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan. The rumor was that US forces were about to use Pakistan to launch a raid into Afghanistan. Escobar's article, published by Asia Times Online on August 30, 2001, was headlined  Get Osama! Now! Or else ... Our Karachi correspondent, Syed Saleem Shazad, was meanwhile filing articles like Osama bin Laden: The thorn in Pakistan's flesh (August 22, 2001) ...

Pakistan loses ground in Afghanistan
Pakistan's long history of meddling in Afghanistan is being curtailed with its decision, at the behest of the United States, to stop its covert support of elements of the Afghan resistance. Undeterred, the resistance has a new rallying point, thanks to Osama bin Laden. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 30, '04)

Shh ... Iraq (US) owes $200bn war debt
The United States, as its taxpayers are likely to be the ones to have to pay up, is playing down the matter of the US$200 billion that Iraq owes in war reparations, mostly to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, not to mention Iran, which has yet to even make its claim. - Ian Williams (Jan 29, '04)

THE ROVING EYE
SISTANI'S WAY
Part 2: The marja and the proconsul
Senior American administrator L Paul Bremer has his views on how elections in Iraq should be conducted, as does Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, religious leader of the country's 15 million Shi'ites. For Washington, this means one of two outcomes: jihad or civil war. This is the second part of a two-part report by Pepe Escobar. (Jan 29, '04)

US draws a line on Pakistan's nuclear program
In much of the 30-odd years of its development, Pakistan's nuclear program has been unaccountable to all but a few select people. During that time, the evidence emerges, sale of the technology to at least Iran took place. Some of Pakistan's scientists will now be held accountable. But the United States is determined that not only does proliferation not occur again, but that the country's program be abandoned altogether. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 28, '04)

Sexed up: How London sold its war on Iraq
To a greater degree than US President George W Bush, British Prime Minister Tony Blair sold the Iraq war to the British public by warning of the dangers of Saddam Hussein's alleged pursuit of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. Just how much this information was "sexed up", and by whom, will determine how many heads roll when the Hutton report is released in London on Wednesday. - David Isenberg (Jan 27, '04)

Bush still dodging bullets
To date, President George W Bush has managed to maintain his popularity despite the abundance of criticism of his invasion of Iraq and the fiasco over weapons of mass destruction. The nine months still to go to re-election, though, are time enough for things to go very wrong. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jan 27, '04)

SPENGLER
Red harvest in Iraq
Americans like their tough guys to have hearts of gold, which is why Hollywood has had no time for Dashiell Hammett's Continental Op, an unscrupulous misfit who plays very dirty and by his own warped rules. In essence, just the sort of character the US needs in Iraq right now. (Jan 26, '04)

Japan hopes yen is mightier than the sword
Fearful of casualties in its historic deployment in Iraq, Japan is trying to safeguard and armor its soldiers with yen. At least US$37.6 million worth of yen is intended to repair schools and hospitals, restore electricity and water, provide jobs and buy goodwill. But it could also make targets of those who are aiding the US-led reconstruction. - J Sean Curtin (Jan 26, '04)

Why Saddam's arrest did matter
The capture of Saddam Hussein could very well prove a turning point in Iraq, just as Adolf Hitler's demise spelled the end of Germany's resistance in World War II. The crucial issue is what policy the US adopts toward elements of the Iraqi resistance cast loose by the capture of their nominal leader. - Marc Erikson (Jan 23, '04)

A losing battle in war on terror finances
Since the war on terror financing began, the US Treasury has seized US$138 million - $36.4 million within the US and $101.6 million from financial institutions around the world. But many believe that not enough is being done, and some senators are starting to ask awkward questions. - Mark Berniker (Jan 21, '04)

Terror ties: Turkey and Pakistan join forces
In his first trip abroad since surviving two assassination attempts last month, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf is in Turkey to sign a number of agreements, including one that paves the way for sharing information on fighting terrorism and organized crime. (Jan 21, '04)

US on alert over Middle East shuffles
The past few weeks have seen a flood of diplomatic activity in the Middle East, from Syria and Turkey forging ties to Iran and Egypt coming close to normalizing relations. These developments are changing the diplomatic table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=tdFONT face= landscape in the region, and will require a more flexible foreign policy approach from the United States. (Jan 21, '04)

SPENGLER
The devil and L Paul Bremer
No one in the Bush administration wants to let slip the dogs of civil war in Iraq. Nonetheless, the tragedy will proceed as Washington at each step discovers that its only viable option is the one that pushes Iraq closer to dissolution. (Jan 20, '04)

Japan muzzles the nosy media on Iraq
Japanese journalists ask too many questions on troop deployment in Iraq and - for the good of national morale - the government limits press information to three officials. Some say the muzzle belongs on the gaffe-prone minister of defense, who is known for his loose lips. - Axel Berkofsky (Jan 20, '04)

Back to the United Nations
Forgetting the fact that it has performed a complete about-turn, the United States, by roping in the United Nations to study the feasibility of holding direct elections in Iraq - as sought by powerful cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani - has taken a very positive step. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jan 20, '04)

Scramble to prepare for polls
With the United States wavering over its decision not to hold direct elections in the early stages of the transfer of power to Iraqis, the problem now becomes one of just how to plan for such elections. - David Enders (Jan 20, '04)

   'Liberal sheikh' returns home

When Sistani speaks, Bush listens
After the ouster of Saddam Hussein's regime, Shi'ite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani instructed his followers to abstain from opposing the occupation forces. This was mistakenly interpreted as favoring the US presence. Now the powerful cleric is making clear exactly what he does favor. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jan 16, '04)

Japanese troops finally on the march to Iraq
As residents of the wind-blown Hokkaido city of Asahikawa prepared to send members of the Ground Self-Defense Force on a historic journey into a war zone, they reflected the feelings of many Japanese - and, indeed, those of other countries caught up in the Iraq war and occupation: support for their troops, but deep uncertainty about the cause. - J Sean Curtin (Jan 16, '04)

THE ROVING EYE
Rough justice in Pakistan
With more than a little help from their government, two French journalists have been spared jail terms for violating their visa conditions in Pakistan. Not so fortunate, though, is their Pakistani "fixer", who has simply disappeared, let alone been afforded a trial for his alleged crime. - Pepe Escobar (Jan 16, '04)

SPEAKING FREELY
In which guest correspondents have a say
The semantics of Empire
In what sense was Saddam Hussein an evildoer in ways that our modern emperors are not? He killed and tortured, but so do other leaders. The difference is, Saddam's atrocities, unlike those of civilized modern emperors, were against his own people. And they did not, in the end, further the aspirations of Empire. - M Shahid Alam (Jan 16, '04)

BOOK REVIEW
Pakistan's Beirut
Karachi: A Terror Capital in the Making by Wilson John
The book vividly traces the degeneration of the port city of Karachi from being the bright capital of the newly created Pakistan in 1947 into a potpourri of fanaticism and mayhem and, more sinister, a launch pad for terrorism. - Chanakya Sen (Jan 16, '04)

Chasing shadows in South Waziristan
Yet another military operation in Pakistan's South Waziristan region has ended with no important terror suspects being found. This is a blow in itself, but it is also bad news for the United States-led forces in Afghanistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 16, '04)

The perils of presidency in Afghanistan
Under Afghanistan's new constitution, adopted with little United States pressure, the president will be virtually immune from censure. This suits the interests of the US, but not necessarily those of the diverse peoples of Afghanistan. - Ramtanu Maitra (Jan 14, '04)

   It's not a constitution, it's as an 'aspiration'

US dollars shape Iraq's media
Plans by the United States government for Iraq's media are taking shape, with projects worth about US$250 million already approved to upgrade and expand the country's broadcast and print media. (Jan 14, '04)

Pakistan running out of options
The United States is turning up the pressure on Pakistan to deal with both suspected al-Qaeda elements and Afghan resistance fighters using its remote territories as sanctuary. As a result, a crucial showdown is expected soon, provided that Islamabad plays ball. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 13, '04)

Bin Laden's losing bet
Everywhere, Osama bin Laden's massive wager against the US-led side in the "war on terrorism" is showing signs of losing badly, and nowhere is this more clear than in Pakistan. While new Pakistani-Indian talks are good news in the long term, they are sure to drive bin Laden and his ilk to more desperate acts of violence. - Stephen Blank (Jan 13, '04)

US concocts a recipe for unrest
In moves that can be guaranteed to lay the foundations for unrest, the United States will grant Kurds their demand for an autonomous region in the north of the country, and deny the call by a leading Shi'ite cleric for general elections to be held ahead of a power transfer to Iraqis. - K Gajendra Singh (Jan 13, '04)

Neo-conservatism, hardcore
Their star might be waning, but the neo-conservatives are deeply committed to preventing any softening in the hard lines of the Bush administration. In their new book, stalwart hawks Richard Perle and David Frum take preemptive diplomacy to new levels of aggression. It's "victory or holocaust", they warn. - Jim Lobe (Jan 12, '04)

  How they would handle Asia

Foible or fable? You decide
President George W Bush decided months before September 11. 2001, to invade Iraq, and had comprehensive plans drawn up accordingly. Or so says Bush's former treasury secretary, Paul H O'Neill, in a "kiss and tell" book about his erstwhile boss. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jan 12, '04)

US military begins its 'long march'
More than half of the US Army's approved strength of 481,000 active and reserve forces are being rotated in the country's largest troop rotation since World War II. Not only does this present a logistical nightmare, it creates an unprecedented "target-rich environment" for the US's enemies. - David Isenberg (Jan 12, '04)

Iraqi WMD: Myths and ... more myths
Like a bad rash that won't go away for the Bush administration, a new report by non-proliferation experts has knocked the capture of former dictator Saddam Hussein into the shadows, forcing the media spotlight back onto Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program. Or, as the report (no surprise) finds - lack thereof. - Jim Lobe (Jan 9, '04)

US troops on the march - out of the army
Given the way that events have unfolded in Iraq, new measures to encourage troops to remain in the US military - including financial incentives - are unlikely to succeed in the long run. Yet the alternatives to addressing the Pentagon's problem of its shrinking army are too contentious to contemplate. (Jan 9, '04)

Ansar al-Islam refuses to lie down
The founder of the Kurdish Islamist group Ansar al-Islam is expected to be freed shortly from a Norwegian jail after his detention last week. The court says that there is not enough evidence to link him to terror attacks in Iraq. The United States, which lists Ansar al-Islam as a terrorist organization, is not amused. (Jan 8, '04)

Underlying motives to Iran's U-turns
Despite the fact that no pigs have been spotted flying through the skies of Iran, all signs point to the possible normalization of relations between Tehran and two of its arch-enemies - Egypt and the United States. But the international community shouldn't break out in applause just yet, given Iran's self-serving motives. - Safa Haeri (Jan 7, '04)

Kurds start to rock the boat
Demands by Iraqi Kurds for substantial autonomy within a new federal Iraqi state have set off deadly confrontations in Kirkuk between Kurdish police and Arab and Turkoman demonstrators demanding the city remain under the control of Baghdad. Syria and Turkey are looking on with concern. (Jan 7, '04)

   Saddam Hussein? Saddam Hussein who?

'Peace Constitution' debate heats up
As it prepares for the second dispatch of troops to Iraq next week, Japan's long-simmering debate on changing its postwar "Peace Constitution", written by the US occupation forces in 1947, is gathering new steam. (Jan 7, '04)

COMMENT
Mission N Korea: Good intention, bad idea
This week an unofficial delegation of Americans will be in North Korea for a five-day tour. While their goals are admirable, Ralph A Cossa argues that such delegations do more harm than good, and suggests a candidate who might be able to talk some sense into Pyongyang's leadership: Muammar Gaddafi. (Jan 7, '04)

Occupation case studies: Algeria, Turkey
While Vietnam's example and its people's fight for freedom has been much compared to the situation in Iraq, the ground situation and the evolution of the war for independence in Muslim, Arab, and until now secular Iraq is closer to the wars of independence in Algeria and Turkey. - K Gajendra Singh (Jan 6, '04)

Wave of violence shakes Thailand
Attacks that have killed at least seven soldiers and police officers in the Muslim-majority south of Thailand have some observers worried - not for the first time - that the government is in denial about the scope of the terrorist threat in the area. - Richard S Ehrlich (Jan 6, '04)

SPEAKING FREELY
Hekmatyar: The wild card in Afghanistan
When Iran "released" famed Afghan warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar from exile back into Afghanistan, Tehran had its own strategic interests at heart. But Hekmatyar, in true fashion, is not playing according to the planned script. - Shahin Eghraghi (Jan 6, '04)


SPENGLER
Tolkien's Ring: When immortality is not enough
The prospective death of an entire people along with their culture creates a particularly nasty type of existential angst, the sort that produces a Hitler or a bin Laden. The inevitable demise of races is Tolkien's theme in Lord of the Rings. But America - with no culture to lose - may point to an outcome Tolkien could not have imagined. (Jan 5, '04)

US sticks with Musharraf
Despite grave concerns, the Bush administration appears to have concluded that it will continue to bank on Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf's support in its global "war on terrorism", regardless of the adverse consequences for both sides. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jan 5, '04)