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By July-August 2001, it
was clear that something dramatic was about
to happen. Pepe Escobar, our "Roving
Eye", was
traveling in Afghanistan and the tribal areas
of Pakistan. The rumor was that US forces
were about to use Pakistan to launch a raid
into Afghanistan. Escobar's article, published
by Asia Times Online on August 30, 2001, was
headlined Get
Osama! Now! Or else ... Our Karachi correspondent,
Syed Saleem Shazad, was meanwhile filing articles
like Osama
bin Laden: The thorn in Pakistan's flesh
(August 22) ...
September 9 - July 20,
2002
Why Arabs are forced to back
Saddam
Most
Arab League countries have enough problems
already, from political unrest to economic woes,
and the last thing they need is US aggression in
their region. Trouble is, no one in Washington
is listening. - Hooman
Peimani (Sep 9, '02)
 Reform grinds to a
halt
The
new Afghan jihad is born
 The redoubtable
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, leader of the Hezb-i-Islami
Afghanistan, successfully rallied diverse forces
in the jihad to drive Soviet forces out of
Afghanistan in the 1980s. In his new jihad
against US-led soldiers he is doing the same,
this time with the help of the Taliban and
al-Qaeda. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Sep 6,
'02)
Afghanistan
back to dog Bush
Inside Saddam's security
network
Over
the decades, Saddam Hussein has erected a vast
and complex spider's web of security
organizations, all of which have one aim in
common - keeping the Iraqi dictator in power, at
any cost. - David
Isenberg (Sep 5, '02)
DANCES
WITH BEARS
Russia
rooting for a quick hit on
Saddam
A
former Iraqi leader used to say that it is
possible to rent an Arab, but never to buy him.
The Russians understand this well, which is why
they want a quick US strike against Saddam
Hussein, lest a protracted occupation of Iraq
upset Moscow's oil strategy. - John Helmer (Sep 4,
'02)
COMMENTARY
Washington
betrays China's Uighurs
The
recent US decision to include the East Turkestan
Islamic Movement on its list of Foreign
Terrorist Organizations may win it some
short-term favors from China, but at a heavy
price. The move gives the green light to further
persecution of the Uighurs of western China,
driving peace-loving but desperate people into
the terrorist camp. (Sep 4,
'02)
Hard
rain in the desert
Saudi Arabia is a land caught in a
roil of contradiction that must somehow be
reconciled if the kingdom is to survive. And the
day is fast approaching when the Saudis must
choose. Will they follow Wahhabism? Will they
join the West? Or will the world soon witness
the fall of the House of Saud? (Sep 4, '02)
South Asian
blowback
With Pakistan and Afghanistan both still
fragile, the new great game in South Asia is far
from won. Despite US victories, Islamic
militants have found relatively immune
sanctuaries in both countries, from where they
can be expected to extract a steep price
for the American presence. - Stephen
Blank (Sep 3, '02)
THE ROVING
EYE
Kabul: Rocking, rolling and
'carpet bombing'
Saucy parties, foreign movies, female
emancipation, buzzing bazaars. Kabul is a sea
change removed from the stifling capital it was
under the Taliban. Or is it? Under the surface,
the cracks that have existed in the blighted
country for decades are widening, despite - or
because of - the best intentions of the US and
the West. - Pepe Escobar (Sep 3,
'02)
The 'Ugly American' fights
back
Although some view it
as another brash attempt to impose its views,
the US State Department is pushing ahead with a
meeting of leading academics and government
officials tasked with exploring the roots of
anti-Americanism and finding ways to better
sell America overseas. - James
Borton (Sep 2,
'02)
Extremists
in the ascendancy
Georgia
and Russia square off
Georgia,
emboldened by the presence of US "military
advisers" on its soil, is increasingly
unsettling neighboring Russia, to the extent
that they could soon be exchanging blows, not
just angry words. - Hooman Peimani (Sep 2,
'02)
Al-Qaeda
tales: The North African
connection
With al-Qaeda
still active across the globe, it is the cell in
North Africa - with tentacles in Mauritania,
Somalia, Algeria, Morocco and Egypt - that is
today most dangerous, most energetic and in the
best position to strike at US interests. -
Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Aug 30,
'02)
THE ROVING
EYE
Osama is in Kunar, but the US can't get
him
Afghanistan's claims that Osama bin Laden
is in Pakistan are a smokescreen - he and senior
al-Qaeda (now called Fath-e-Islam) members are
busy plotting in Kunar province in the wilds of
northeast Afghanistan - and the US can't do a
thing about it. - Pepe
Escobar (Aug 28, '02)
Russia flirts with US's
axis of evil ...
When it comes
to looking after its own interests, Russia is
quite prepared to go against the US - as amply
evidenced by Moscow's friendly dealings with
Washington's axis of evil - Iran, Iraq and North
Korea. - Ehsan
Ahrari (Aug 28, '02)
... as buildup ends the
US-Russian honeymoon
The expanding
American military presence in Russia's proximity
will contribute significantly to a strategic
rift between Moscow and Washington, with serious
regional and global implications. - Hooman Peimani (Aug
28,
'02)
Israel ready for war with
Iraq
Israel expects to be targeted by Iraqi
Scud missiles - possibly carrying chemical or
biological warheads - as soon as full-scale war
breaks out. Stopping the Scuds in flight is
difficult, so Israel is ready to strike hard at
launch sites near the Jordan border, with
nuclear weapons if necessary. - Marc
Erikson (Aug 27, '02)
THE ROVING
EYE
Pakistan
in the shadow of terror
The US
is way off the mark when it says that the
hundreds of captives at its prison in Cuba are
the "hardest of the hardcore" al-Qaeda fighters.
The real heavyweights have regrouped in
Pakistan, and they have terror on their minds. -
Pepe Escobar (Aug 27,
'02)
COMMENTARY
Paving the road to hell
By now, Kashmiris of every religious
persuasion have figured out the intelligent
response to news that a well-intentioned Western
diplomat is on his way to "de-escalate tensions"
in the region. Run for cover. - Paul Belden (Aug 27, '02)
THE ROVING
EYE
Tribal
land, Taliban land
From bearded,
gun-toting fighters to clean shaven citizens,
many Taliban have simply melted into the tribal
areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan - but they are
just as deadly, as one of their leading
intelligence planners reveals to Pepe
Escobar (Aug 26,
'02)
COMMENTARY
The Bush family's phony
wars
An
entire region, from Jordan to Iran, is on the
brink of catastrophe as it awaits one man's
decision on how he will pursue his family's
vendetta against Saddam Hussein. K Gajendra
Singh, India's former ambassador to Jordan,
looks inside the Pandora's Box which George W
Bush has in his hands. (Aug 26, '02)
US will delay attack on Iraq at its
peril
As
Iran and Saudi Arabia intensify efforts to draw
together those opposed to a US attack on Iraq,
the Iraqi ambassador to Pakistan offers his
views on the real reasons for Washington's
obsession with ousting Saddam Hussein. -
Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Aug 22, '02)
Unintentional
SAARC-asm
When the subject of
terrorism came up at the meeting of the South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC) in Nepal this week, the organization's
spokesman had an answer ready: "Everyone is
opposed." There was no obvious sarcasm in his
voice. - Paul Belden (Aug 22,
'02)
THE
ROVING EYE
Terror stalks
Musharraf
Terror in Pakistan has demonstrated that
it won't spare churches, consulates or schools.
And it will try its best to strike at Pakistani
President Pervez Musharraf, whom the al-Qaeda
forces gathering in Pakistan have declared their
number one enemy. - Pepe
Escobar (Aug 21, '02)
Pakistan's
heart of
darkness
The situation
in Pakistan's isolated Balawaristan,
where total control is exercised by
Islamabad through the army, makes the region an
ideal and secret place for the relocation of the
dislocated hub of international terrorism -
including al-Qaeda. (Aug 21, '02)
COMMENTARY
Inside
information
Saddam Hussein knows
that his most potent weapon is an information
war which, to be effective, must begin well
before the onslaught of a US military campaign -
and it has. - Ehsan
Ahrari (Aug 21, '02)
Bahrain
turns to Iran
Bahrain is no
heavyweight in the Arab world, but its recent
strengthening of ties with Iran is a discernible
tilt in influence in the energy-rich Persian
Gulf away from Washington and toward Tehran. -
Hooman Peimani (Aug 21,
'02)
Washington goes to war over
war
Washington's Republicans are at war with
themselves, fighting for the heart and mind of
President George W Bush and what he decides to
do about Iraq. The war is being savagely fought
in the press, pitting the likes of former
national security adviser Brent Scowcroft and
Colin Powell against Donald Rumsfeld and Dick
Cheney. (Aug 20, '02)
COMMENTARY
Kashmir: Democracy in the shadow
of terror
Journalists and others
observing next month's state elections in
Indian-administered Kashmir will note the grim
cycle of violence that has led to the deaths of
scores of politicians this year alone. They
should also note where this violence originates
so that the culprits can be brought to book -
Pakistan. (Aug 20, '02)
Seven fallacies of US plans to
invade Iraq
It is widely put about that Iraq is
developing weapons of mass destruction. There is
simply no proof of this, and it's just one of
the fallacies in Washington's
justifications for an attack on Saddam
Hussein. (Aug 19, '02)
Musharraf braces for jihadi
backlash
Under pressure from the United States,
President General Pervez Musharraf had little
choice but to crack down on jihadi groups based
in Pakistan - but he has still to pay the full
price for what the groups view as a betrayal. -
Aijazz
Ahmed (Aug 19, '02)
Iraq:
In all but name, the war's
on
"Wait and see," George W Bush
said when asked how he would oust Saddam
Hussein. Wait no longer: the US in fact has been
waging real war on Iraq for some time.
Marc Erikson details the
action. (Aug 16,
'02)
THE ROVING
EYE
Saudi
Arabia next in line?
Saudi Arabia is well aware that
the "regime change" the US is planning for Iraq
has nothing to do with evil governments - it's
all about oil - and Washington's designs on the
region will therefore not stop with the ouster
of Saddam Hussein. - Pepe Escobar (Aug 16,
'02)
Al-Qaeda
and the skimming scam
Al-Qaeda is far from a spent
force, with reports of a significant regrouping
in Pakistan, and the use of a tried and tested
credit card "skimming" scam to move money around
the world to fund its activities. -
Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Aug 16, '02)
The ties that bind Iran and
Saudi Arabia
From bitter foes to
collaborators on sensitive security issues, Iran
and Saudi Arabia have come a long way in recent
years - a clear indication that they are dancing
to their own tune, not to that of the
United States. - Hooman
Peimani (Aug 15, '02)
Washington
sets sights on Iran, Saudi
Arabia
Iran and Saudi Arabia
have emerged as targets of a US attempt to sow
turmoil in countries that have the
clout to upset Washington's plans for
war with Iraq - but neither Tehran nor
Riyadh is sitting passively by. - Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Aug 14,
'02)
Al Jazeera: Qatar's secret
weapon?
The Qatar-based Al Jazeera
television station rocked the world with
its Osama bin Laden exclusives, but now some
some Arab countries are the focus
of its hard-hitting broadcasts - and
they don't like it. (Aug 14, '02)
Important distinctions - the many faces
of Islam
A growing number of
neo-conservatives in the United States are
calling on Washington to deem Saudi Arabia an
enemy because of the Wahhabite form of Islam it
practices. These Americans have unlikely allies:
Asia's moderate Muslims. (Aug 14, '02)
India ready to sacrifice Iraq for the
US
Even though Delhi has close ties
with Baghdad, the United States can rest assured
that India won't raise too much of a fuss in the
event of an attack on Iraq. - Sudha
Ramachandran
(Aug
13, '02)
ARF breaks new
ground
The ASEAN Regional Forum,
the Asia-Pacific's premier security
organization, has been criticized as little more
than a talking shop, long on rhetoric but short
on concrete action. That changed at the group's
recent meeting, which committed the region to a
specific battle plan in the war on
terrorism. (Aug 13, '02)
THE
ROVING EYE
Lake Arabia
All
the attention on Saudi Arabia's King Fahd and
his vast entourage in Switzerland, where they
are on a spending binge, cannot deflect from the
fact that the monarch and his inner circle might
have more on their minds than shopping. -
Pepe
Escobar (Aug 9, '02)
Terror in the Land of the Thunder
Dragon
Kashmir may get the headlines, but it is
far from India's only source of cross-border
separatist terrorism. From bases high in the
Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, an array of loosely
allied splinter groups has proved quite capable
of causing trouble on both sides of the
mountainous border. (Aug 7,
'02)
The oil factor in an attack on
Iraq
The United States has already taken
measures to protect itself from oil shortages in
the event of an attack on Iraq. Not so well
placed are Japan and Europe, which rely heavily
on supplies from the Persian Gulf. -
Ehsan Ahrari (Aug 6,
'02)
COMMENTARY
Avoiding the
clash of civilizations
There's no
doubt that religion has become a decisive force
in the contemporary world, but the precise
nature of that force remains an open question.
Will it be the wellspring of peace and harmony?
Or the launch pad of endless crusade and jihad?
The world must choose. If religion fails to
become a part of the solution, it will surely
remain a part of the problem. (Aug 6,
'02)
Asian security: China seizes the moment
US foreign policy and its anti-terrorism
campaign as outlined by Colin Powell hardly won
a ringing endorsement during his recent trip to
Asia. And with impeccable timing, China jumped
into the fray as an unlikely power broker
between an increasingly unilateralist United
States and an increasingly jittery Association
of Southeast Asian Nations. - Alan
Boyd (Aug 5, '02)
Instability
- Afghanistan's only
constant
A
renewed US offensive against Taliban guerrillas,
increased Pakistani intelligence activity and
ever-troublesome warlords add up to only one
thing for Afghanistan - another long period of
instability. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Aug 5,
'02)
THE ROVING EYE
Shoot
the dog
Faithful "puppy
dog" British premier Tony Blair will seemingly
do anything that his master George W Bush
commands, even if it means joining in an attack
against Iraq and turning a deaf ear to the
leaders of the many countries who refuse to jump
through the hoops for the US. - Pepe
Escobar (Aug 5, '02)
 A FIVE-PART
SERIES
PART 1: A plan
is hatched
The United States' plan to invade Iraq is
complicated by a lack of accurate intelligence
about Baghdad's weapons programs, including its
chemical, biological and even nuclear
capabilities. (Jul 29,
'02) |
PART 2: Military
preparations
Apart from the United
Kingdom, the US will essentially be on its own
once it decides to attack Iraq. Still, the tacit
support of regional allies will be of crucial
importance. (Jul 30,
'02) |
PART 3:
Iraq prepares
Iraq has
responded to the threat of war by appeasing its
hitherto antagonistic neighbors, and by plotting
a military strategy that will certainly not be
as naive as the one it adopted in the previous
war with the US more than a decade
ago. (Jul
31, '02) |
PART 4: Voices of
opposition
The United States is unlikely to pay much
heed to countries that oppose its plans to
attack Iraq. What is far more worrying to
Washington is that the opposition within Iraq to
Saddam Hussein's regime may be of little use in
any change of regime. (Aug 1,
'02) |
PART 5: The
aftermath
Assuming that a US attack
on Iraq succeeds on removing Saddam Hussein, the
problems involved in ensuring subsequent
stability in the country and in the region will
be far more challenging than the attack
itself. (Aug 2,
'02) |
THE ROVING
EYE
The (Rumsfeld) show must go
on
Although
the US is diplomatically isolated, with its
military far from ready for a strike against
Iraq any time soon and the chance of such a
strike reaping the desired results doubtful,
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld continues
to rattle the sabre. - Pepe
Escobar (Jul 31, '02)
The lonely diplomat
Secretary of State
Colin Powell is the top diplomat in a US
administration that values militancy over
diplomacy. And ironically, during his current
trip to Asia, he has had to concentrate on
strengthening the coalition against terrorism -
the very focus that has undermined his own power
since September 11. (Jul 30,
'02)
The Iraqi street could pay the price for
war
Caught
between George W Bush and Saddam Hussein,
ordinary Iraqis could find themselves in
a desperate position when Operation Desert
Something becomes reality. - Sreeram
Chaulia (Jul 30, '02)
Malaysia and
Iran: Axis of reason?
A recent meeting between Iran's pragmatic
president, Mohammad Khatami, and the champion of
the modernization of Islam, Malaysian Prime
Minister Mahathir Mohamad, could have
far-reaching implications for a war against
terrorism that looks beyond US-style militarism
and goes to its very roots. - Ehsan
Ahrari (Jul 29,
'02)
Japan's ambivalence on war with
Iraq
A
not-so-secret meeting of Japanese Foreign
Ministry and Defense Agency officials has
discussed the option of extending Tokyo's
military backing for the US-led war on terrorism
to include logistical support for a US attack on
Iraq. That it is even being considered has
raised plenty of eyebrows in Japan. - Axel
Berkofsky (Jul 24, '02)
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