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By
July-August 2001, it was clear that something
dramatic was about to happen. Pepe Escobar, our
"Roving Eye", was
traveling in Afghanistan
and the tribal areas of Pakistan. The rumor was
that US forces were about to use Pakistan to
launch a raid into Afghanistan. Escobar's
article, published by Asia Times Online on
August 30, 2001, was headlined Get Osama!
Now! Or else ... Our Karachi correspondent,
Syed Saleem Shazad, was meanwhile filing
articles like Osama
bin Laden: The thorn in Pakistan's flesh
(August 22, 2001) ...
April
2004
COMMENTARY
Tapping the Mr Bigs of
jihadi-style terrorism
Violence in Thailand's south
- led largely by Muslim raiders - have yet to
show the markings of radical jihadi groups
al-Qaeda or Jemaah Islamiya, though allegations
linking the two are rife. But while dirty
politics and corrupt business tactics aggravate
Thailand's troubles, if the violence grows more
extreme, a turning point could well be nigh. -
David Fullbrook
(Apr 30, '04)
The Fallujah factor in N
Korea nuke talks
The North
Korea nuclear talks are probably going nowhere
fast, despite the announcement of six-party
working-level talks in May and despite the
horrific train explosion that flattened a key
economic center and generated massive
international humanitarian and reconstruction
aid. The reasons: Fallujah, US politics and the
Dear Leader. - Kosuke Takahashi
(Apr 30, '04)
Iraq's future: Dreams and
nightmares
 With several
of its transition plans in tatters, the United
States has been forced to salvage its
stage-managed idea for a political transition in
Iraq by launching a pre-emptive offensive
against forces that could pose a threat to the
post-June 30 order, and by embracing the United
Nations in order to legitimize its political
agenda. - Herbert Docena (Apr
29, '04)
'Our' men in
Baghdad
United States
hopes in Iraq lie largely with UN envoy Lakhdar
Brahimi - who has a plan - and US
ambassador-to-be in Baghdad, John Negroponte,
who is still waiting for a plan. (Apr
29, '04)
Thailand makes its
mark with blood
After a bloody day
of fighting in Thailand's south, the country's
Muslim population, which dominates that region,
is in a state of distress. Violence on both
sides is growing more extreme and the death toll
mounting, and though the government claims it is
making progress in dealing with the violence,
the excessive bloodshed could prove disastrous.
(Apr 29, '04)
Thailand: Blood on the
border
 A four-month
spate of violence has climaxed in southern
Thailand with the deaths of at least 90 people,
most of them Muslim "bandits", according to Thai
authorities. But serious questions remain
unanswered about what is really going on in
Thailand's Muslim south - and whether an
Islamist insurgency is being abetted by
neighboring Malaysia's lax border control
policies. - Ioannis
Gatsiounis (Apr 28, '04)
High stakes for UN
troubleshooter
 United Nations
envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, tasked with designing an
interim government acceptable to Iraq's various
factions, who receive "sovereignty" on July 1,
has drawn criticism for his comments on US
military moves and Israeli policy in the Middle
East. But this is not to understand the
complexity of his task. (Apr 28,
'04)
Pakistan buys a little
time
 By apparently
handing over US$1.7 million in "compensation"
and freeing scores of tribal leaders, Islamabad
has brought peace to the South Waziristan tribal
area, scene of a recent bloody operation to
track down foreign and Afghan resistance
fighters. No-one is being fooled though - this
is the calm before a much bigger storm. -
Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Apr 27, '04)
 Karzai
calls on the Taliban
When sovereignty does not
mean security
So bad is the situation
among the US-trained Iraqi security forces -
many of whom refuse to fight - that Secretary of
State Colin Powell warns that when the June 30
handover of sovereignty comes about, the US will
have to retain control of security. Powell hopes
Iraqis will understand. Iraqis hope that Powell
will understand if they don't buy his line.
(Apr 27, '04)
Uzbekistan's femmes
fatales
A month after suicide terror
attacks rocked Uzbekistan, both the government
and its US ally continue to blame al-Qaeda, even
though the nature of the attackers - educated
women - would indicate otherwise, and suggest
that more attacks can be expected. -
Sudha Ramachandran
(Apr 27, '04)
Living with a nuclear North
Korea
If Pyongyang does have
nuclear weapons - and some observers say it has
at least a couple - the chances of scrapping
them up are slim to nonexistent, given that US
President George W Bush advocates unilateral
preemptive force and says rogue states with WMD
won't be tolerated. The fact that
some reports on nukes are suspect doesn't
seem to bother Bush. - Ehsan Ahrari (Apr
27, '04)
SPENGLER
text/css/iframetr/atimes/archive.asp
Horror and humiliation in
Fallujah
 As
the American military weighs the reduction of
Fallujah, there come into focus the grand
vulnerabilities both of the Americans and the
Sunni resistance. For the Islamic world,
humiliation is beyond its capacity to endure.
For the West, horror is lethal. (Jan
26, '04)
Deadline looming, US forces
the issue
The Fallujah troubles and
concurrent attacks by Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi
Army have been widely interpreted as portending
that US plans for Iraq have come to a dead end.
But behind the scenes is the more complex
reality of strategic positioning by the major
players, with Washington well to the fore. - Marc
Erikson (Jan 26,
'04)
Starting from square
one
US policy in Iraq -
including the involvement of the United Nations
and the recruitment of former Ba'athists -
appears driven more by reaction to ad hoc
emergencies than an overall strategy for both
stabilizing the country and implementing a
credible exit strategy. - Jim Lobe (Jan
26, '04)
Another setback for US
Attempted suicide attacks on
Iraqi oil facilities further highlight
Washington's inability to secure access to
steady supplies of inexpensive oil and to
maneuver Iraq into a decision-making role within
the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries: oil prices are expected to rise even
further. (Jan 26, '04)
SOS to 'disgraced'
Ba'athists
Washington's success in
creating a stable Iraq hinges on its ability to
create viable Iraqi security forces, something
that to date it has not been able to do. This
situation has prompted senior US military
officials to utter the unthinkable: bring back
the Ba'athists. (Jan 23,
'04)
Bush's believe it or not
As long as American
voters believe that Iraq had weapons of mass
destruction, and as long as they believe Saddam
Hussein had a hand in September 11, the more
likely they will be to vote for George W Bush,
rather than John Kerry, according to a new poll.
And surprisingly, despite almost irrefutable
evidence to the contrary on these two key issue,
Bush is gaining voters. - Jim Lobe (Apr 23,
'04)
After Madrid,
Manila?
With a presidential election
drawing nearer - as was the case in Spain when
terrorists struck Madrid - anxieties are
heightened in the Philippines. Despite
assurances from the president that the arrest of
six suspected Abu Sayyaf members and the netting
of enough explosives to flatten a two-story
building have averted an attack, Filipinos still
have their doubts. - Marco Garrido (Apr
23, '04)
Tehran's nuclear hide and
seek
The best thing
going for Iran is that the Bush administration
suffers from a lack of credibility regarding any
claims that Tehran intends to become a nuclear
power. Consequently, Washington is relying on
the Europeans to make the case against Iran. The
Europeans, though, have a different agenda. -
Ehsan Ahrari (Apr
22, '04)
Bad cops and soft
cops
With regard to Iran's
nuclear program, the routine is meant to be that
the United States plays the bad cop, and the
Europeans play the good cop - or make that soft
cop. - Ramtanu Maitra
(Apr 22, '04)
SPEAKING FREELY
Bush's 'transfer of power'
gambit
President George W Bush has
been forced to reconfigure or shelve several of
his more grandiose Iraqi goals. But Washington
has no intention to relinquish its hegemony over
a Baghdad government possessing so much in
petroleum reserves and strategically located to
influence the entire Middle East. - Jack A Smith (Apr
22, '04)
Counter-productive
counter-insurgency
Even though the scheduled
transfer of sovereignty to Iraq is just over two
months away, the focus in the country is
squarely on counter-insurgency, rather than
nation-building, an emphasis that places more
bad guys on the street than it takes off. - David Isenberg (Apr
22, '04)
Muqtada
attacks US with democracy
Why terrorism bypasses
China's far west
Suicide
bombings in Muslim Uzbekistan in Central Asia
raise questions about whether similar violence
born of discontent could follow in China's
Muslim Xinjiang region. The short answer is
"possible, but not probable". Colin Mackerras, a
frequent visitor, scholar and writer focusing on
China's ethnic minorities, explains. (Apr 22, '04)
Musharraf whipping Pakistan
into (US) line
 If
Pakistan is to remain an important ally of the
United States on the sub-continent, Washington
needs to be sure that President General Pervez
Musharraf not only has his hand on the tiller,
but also has widespread support among the
grass-root population. In a series of new moves,
Musharraf is doing his best to comply. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr
21, '04)
Save the
president?
The latest in a string of
tell-all books about the run-up to the Iraq war,
Bob Woodward's Plan of
Attack, is predictably causing a stir. But
both because this is the work of a respected
celebrity journalist and not a disgruntled
ex-insider, and because, unlike Richard Nixon,
the current president let Woodward in the front
door of the White House, George W Bush is not
worried. - Piyush
Mathur (Apr 21, '04)
SPEAKING FREELY
The
United Nations strikes back
The geopolitical
forces moving the world toward a United Nations
Security Council-centric world order are like
big waves crashing against the principles of
state sovereignty and unilateralism. The US will
have to decide, very soon, whether it wants to
place itself on the crest of the wave, or remain
in its wake, floundering, as it currently is. -
W Joseph Stroupe
(Apr 21, '04)
More
power to the UN's man
President George W
Bush has publicly put his faith in United
Nations Special Representative Lakhdar Brahimi
to help rescue the US from potential disaster in
Iraq, but without the world body's full
participation in an Iraq mission, there's little
one man can do on his own. (Apr 21, '04)
Iraq's
doomed disarmament deal
In an attempt to
defuse the standoff at the besieged town of
Fallujah, US authorities have asked
anti-coalition fighters in the town west of
Baghdad to surrender their heavy weapons. US
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld does not
believe the initiative will work. Nor do the
resistance. (Apr 21, '04)
Russia revels in US's
discomfort
 A puppet
premier of Iraq in the 1950s famously
commented: "You can always rent an Arab, but you
can never buy him." Russian policy today is
founded on letting the Iraqi battlefield serve
as a reminder to the US of this warning. Moscow,
after all, has time, and oil, on its side. - John Helmer (Apr
20, '04)
Assault on Afghanistan's
political soul
Although military matters
tend to dominate news about Afghanistan, equally
important political battles are being fought at
the very core of the government of Hamid Karzai.
And, surprise, surprise, at the center of the
action are colleagues past and present of
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the country's prime
gun-toting resistance leader. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr
20, '04)
How al-Qaeda keeps its
secrets
 The
very nature of al-Qaeda operations, as
exemplified by the highly secretive and isolated
Hamburg cell which plotted and executed the
September 11 attacks, makes it virtually
impossible for intelligence agencies to
anticipate targets, even with the capture
and interrogation of senior al-Qaeda
members. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (Apr 19,
'04)
SPEAKING
FREELY
9-11: The big question
remains unasked
Omitted from the 9-11 probe
is the question of why the attacks took place in
the first place. US involvement in the Middle
East over the past decades provides some
insight. - Jack A
Smith (Apr 19,
'04)
Exorcising the ghosts of
terrorism past
By deftly handling the Iraq
hostage crisis, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi
boldly laid to rest Japan's reputation for being
weak on terrorism, banishing the ghosts of
capitulation that have haunted Tokyo's diplomacy
for the past quarter century. It was Japan's -
and Koizumi's - darkest hour, and both emerged
on the world stage victorious. - J Sean Curtin
(Apr 19, '04)
Occupation highlights
superpower's
limits
Opinion by Henry C K
Liu
Sunnis in
Iraq and the region are torn between their fear
of a rise of the Shi'ites in Iraq and their
commitment to Arab nationalism stimulated by
foreign occupation. Neither option has any room
for US superpower dominance. (Apr 19,
'04)
Saddam's capture
revisited
Recent reports on the
circumstances surrounding the apprehension of
Saddam Hussein rake up facts reported elsewhere
several months ago - yet conveniently overlook
key elements, such as the Kurds' involvement. -
Ritt Goldstein
(Apr 19, '04)
Iran gets its hands
dirty
Call it conspiracy or
coincidence, the fact is that at the precise
time that an Iranian delegation is "assessing"
the situation regarding defiant cleric Muqtada
al-Sadr in Iraq, an Iranian diplomat is gunned
down in Baghdad. Certainly, both Washington and
Iraq's Sunnis will not be too unhappy to see
Tehran's foray into the country curtailed. -
Safa Haeri
(Apr 16, '04)
Matters of faith
(Apr 15, '04)
SPENGLER
Why Islam baffles
America
 American
government studies on Islam lack even a
sentence on the question: What is the spiritual
experience of believing Muslims? Religion for
them is an existential matter, of one substance
with the smallest details of their daily lives.
And to this Americans can come only as
destroyers, not saviors.
The battle for Sunni hearts
and minds
 Shi'ites
believe in a warped form of Islam, Shi'ite
Iranians are flooding into Iraq to foment
sectarian strife, Shi'ite police are killing
Sunnis ... the charges all follow the same
explosive theme in sermons at mosques, in
newspapers and in magazines across
Iraq. This is not the propaganda of a small
minority, it is the world view of a large, well
armed and powerful Sunni segment that believes
it has been backed into a
corner and has nothing to lose. - Nir Rosen
Sunni clerics seek
moderation
Morocco struggles with
Wahhabi legacy
Morocco, having suffered its
own terror attacks and having its citizens
accused of perpetrating the bombings in Spain
last month, is now fighting to curtail the
spread of the Wahhabi Islamic doctrine preferred
by al-Qaeda that it once actively tolerated in
the country. - Ilhem
Rachidi
Logging on to
jihad
A growing number of
jihad websites popping up on the Internet can
now bring the latest news, slogans and training
techniques of Islamic holy war directly to your
home. Efforts to topple these sites - including
an al-Qaeda-related site promoting "diplomacy
written in blood, decorated with body parts and
perfumed with gunpowder" - are building up to a
new type of holy war: e-jihad.
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 Iraq: The wolf is at the
door
There is
little doubt that American military power
will be able to silence and subjugate the
dissenters and protagonists in Iraq, at least
for now. But the enormous resentment
that the use of force is creating is likely
to be the reason why a Christian superpower will
fail in proselytizing Muslim Iraqis into
believing in the superiority of democracy. -
Ehsan Ahrari (Apr
14, '04)
Tehran pushes its own
agenda
The
biggest worry for Washington in Iraq is the
creation of a coalition between the Sunni and
Shi'ite extremists, exactly the scenario Tehran
is working to bring about. - Safa Haeri (Apr
14, '04)
Japan on the rack in hostage
crisis
The Iraq
hostage crisis - evoking memories of hostages in
Lebanon - is a turning point for Japan,
generating intense public debate about the value
of the US-Japan alliance and the high price to
pay for being a global player. Japan may emerge
from the ordeal more nationalistic and assertive
- or it may revert to its former pacifist, less
nationalist state. - J Sean Curtin (Apr
14, '04)
THE ROVING EYE
Wanted: A new
Saddam
Opinion by Pepe
Escobar
The more
repressively Washington acts in Iraq, the more
unpopular it becomes - and the more the Shi'ite
majority bolsters the ranks of the armed
resistance. And it becomes more unlikely that
even the emergence of a Saddam Hussein-like
dictator would be able to hold things together.
But maybe this is the logic of total war.
(Apr 14,
'04)
War without
casualties?
The advent of Buck Rogers high-tech weapons
has triggered the rise of the machines,
part of a US plan to make one-third of its
military's combat vehicles driverless by 2015.
The lure of being able to fight a war without
getting your own people killed is seductive
indeed. Says one official, "It is possible that
in our lifetime we will be able to run a
conflict without ever leaving the United
States." (Apr 9, '04)
Revolt and Iran: New nukes
and old issues
While some
reports suggest the US "really" invaded Iraq to
protect Israel, analysts view Iran's aid to
regional terror groups, coupled with its nuclear
ambitions and desires for regional hegemony, as
Israel's true Middle East threat. Perhaps no
coincidence, then, that Tehran is now being
blamed for the troubles in Iraq. - Ritt Goldstein (Apr 9,
'04)
Japan's hostage ordeal - and
soul searching
The abduction of three
Japanese civilians in Iraq has presented Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi with his biggest
political crisis since taking office in 2001. At
stake are three lives, the presence of Tokyo's
troops in Iraq, Koizumi's future, and ties with
the US. - Richard
Hanson (Apr 9, '04)
COMMENTARY
The making of hell in
Iraq
US
authorities were successfully riding the Iraqi
tiger with a two-pronged policy: ignoring
Muqtada al-Sadr, while bringing about necessary
policy adjustments to accommodate the demands of
the leading Shi'ite leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani. But after the decision to
take on Muqtada, the tiger has turned. - Ehsan Ahrari (Apr 9,
'04)
From peace to
war
The Mahdi Army was formed
last summer, when Muqtada al-Sadr said it would
be a non-violent force used primarily for
security. That has changed radically, though,
with Muqtada issuing a call for his followers to
"terrorize" the enemy. (Apr 9,
'04)
Afghanistan: Crossing the
Rubicon
With the failure of the
hammer and anvil approach to crushing Afghan
guerrilla fighters, in which Pakistani and US
troops in Afghanistan operated on their separate
sides of the border, a bold new initiative has
begun once and for all to root out the
resistance - and it shows no respect for
international boundaries. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr 9,
'04)
A spy in the eastern
Mediterranean
The divided,
strategically placed island of Cyprus attracts
more than tourists to the eastern Mediterranean.
Spies, too. It's the West's electronic ear for
the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia.
And the US wants to expand its presence with a
big military base when - and if - the island is
reunited. - Iason
Athanasiadis (Apr 9, '04)
When fear turns to
angerThe veneer of
unity between Shi'ites and Sunnis in Iraq is
belied by the battles being fought in the
mosques, in the streets and in the media between
the two sects, all against a backdrop of
grinding occupation that daily raises the level
of fear throughout every stratum of society.
Everywhere people await in dread for the final
showdown - with or without the Americans. - Nir Rosen (Apr 8,
'04)Symbol of
insurgencyAs armed supporters of
Muqtada al-Sadr continue to battle with
coalition forces, the young cleric has almost
overnight become the most visible symbol of
Iraq's growing insurgency, yet not everyone in
the Shi'ite camp is fully behind him (Apr 8,
'04)THE ROVING EYE
One year on: From liberation
to jihadShi'ite leader Muqtada
al-Sadr finds echo in Iraq when he compares US
proconsul L Paul Bremer to Saddam Hussein. He
also finds resonance in the Arab world when he
aligns himself with Hamas - predominantly Sunni
- and Hezbollah - predominantly Shi'ite. And in
the mosques, the calls are for jihad. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 8,
'04)The Shi'ite voices that will
be heard The
uprising in Iraq that began on Sunday came as no
surprise to those listening to Iraq's Shi'ites.
All it needed was a spark to set it off, and the
spark was duly provided by the United States. Nir Rosen has been
reading the Shi'ites' newspapers, viewing their
VCDs, and listening to their sermons. (Apr 7,
'04) Ba'athist bandwagon
Ba'athists are
desperately trying to find a vehicle for their
opposition to US-led forces. The Muqtada al-Sadr
bandwagon might be just such a vehicle. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Apr 7, '04)Iraq revolt: Diversions and
deadlines
Washington's
twin goals of legitimizing a long-term US troop
presence in Iraq and diverting public attention
from the issues of September 11 are well served
by the current escalation of violence involving
Muqtada al-Sadr and his Shi'ite followers. The
June 30 deadline for the handover of sovereignty
to Iraqis, though, could distinctly see other
goals being served. - Ritt Goldstein (Apr 7,
'04)
COMMENTARY
Calm down. It's not Iraq War
II
Doom and
gloom merchants take note: The US can and will
handle the Muqtada al-Sadr rebellion, and
all-out war is not about to break out. This does
not mean, though, that Washington will
necessarily get what it wants when it comes to
Iraqis forming a government. - Marc Erikson (Apr 7,
'04)
9-11 AND THE SMOKING GUN
Part 2: A real smoking
gun Beyond all the side issues,
what people want to know about September 11 is
what really happened
on that fateful day. Yet the 9-11 Commission is
not asking the hard questions. In the second
part of a two-part report, Pepe Escobar raises
the questions that need be asked, and they start
with Pakistan. (Apr 7,
'04)Muqtada pushes Bush to the
brink While
US officials downplay any sense of crisis over
the situation in the Sunni triangle in Iraq or
over the rise in militancy on the part of
Muqtada al-Sadr's Shi'ites, President George W
Bush insists that Washington will "stay the
course", including handing over sovereignty on
June 30. If matters deteriorate, though, the
decision could be taken out of Bush's hands. -
Jim Lobe (Apr 7,
'04)
Test of American
patienceFrom the United States
perspective, developments in Iraq are beginning
to appear like a never-ending ride on a roller
coaster. The only question is: How much of this
stormy ride will the American public tolerate,
and for how long? - Ehsan Ahrari (Apr 7,
'04)Muqtada's Shi'ites raise the
stakes
To date, the US has gambled that as long as
the main Shi'ite leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani, refrained from depicting the US
presence in Iraq as illegitimate and against
Islam, it could withstand the fiery rhetoric of
Muqtada al-Sadr. After the banning of
Muqtada's newspaper, though, as is being
violently demonstrated, the stakes have changed
dramatically. - Ehsan
Ahrari (Apr 5, '04)
Afghanistan: Hekmatyar
changes color again
Ever since being ousted by the Taliban in 1996,
veteran, and wily, mujahideen leader Gulbuddin
Hekmatyar has aspired to a return to the
political arena. Now come indications that he is
prepared to forgo the gun - and leadership of a
significant portion of the Afghan resistance -
to achieve his ambitions. Hekmatyar's problem
is, will Kabul and Washington trust him? So far,
he has bitten all the many hands that have fed
him, including Washington's. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr 2,
'04)
Terror in Thailand: 'Ghosts'
and jihadis
US anti-terrorism ally
Thailand is scrambling to find the culprits
behind a spate of deadly terrorist attacks in
its Muslim south. There have been arrests and
finger-pointing. But while there are suggestions
the terror is home-grown - namely local
separatists fighting for an independent Muslim
state - an international hand in the troubles
cannot be ruled out. - Julian Gearing (Apr 2,
'04)
Xinjiang and China's Central
Asia strategy
The recent violence in
Uzbekistan was promptly denounced as "terrorism"
by Beijing, which fears separatism and violence
in its own predominantly Muslim Xinjiang region.
China bases its strategic and energy objectives
on stability in Xinjiang, and Beijing's Central
Asian policies grow out of its preoccupation
with stability there. - Stephen Blank (Apr 2,
'04)
COMMENT
US thought control of Middle
East studies
A band of neo-conservative
pundits with close ties to Israel is waging a
war against American scholars who study the
Middle East. They are attempting to assert
political control over teaching, research and
public programs of study centers - claiming that
they bear some of the responsibility for
September 11. And now the Senate is
involved.(Apr 2, '04)
Despicable killings 'won't
go unpunished'
The top United
States administrator in Iraq, L Paul Bremer, on
Thursday said that the killing of four civilian
American contractors and the subsequent
mutilation of their bodies "will not go
unpunished". (Apr 1, '04)US puts Yemen in a bind over
'terror' sheikhThe US Department of
Treasury's recent indictment of Yemeni Sheikh
Abdul Majid al-Zindani on charges that include
recruiting for and promoting al-Qaeda highlight
the enormous challenges facing Yemeni President
Ali Abdullah Saleh as he attempts to help the
United States fight Islamic militants. (Apr 1,
'04)Uzbekistan: Sifting for
clues
More
than 40 people have been killed in four days of
violence in Uzbekistan between special forces
and suspected militants. The violence has
included alleged suicide bombings, a car bomb
and a shootout. Authorities are pinning the
blame on Islamic radicals. But with no claim of
responsibility, it's unclear who is behind the
violence - and why. (Apr 1, '04)
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