By July-August 2001, it was clear that something dramatic was about to happen. Pepe Escobar, our "Roving Eye", was
traveling in Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan. The rumor was that US forces were about to use Pakistan to launch a raid into Afghanistan. Escobar's article, published by Asia Times Online on August 30, 2001, was headlined  Get Osama! Now! Or else ... Our Karachi correspondent, Syed Saleem Shazad, was meanwhile filing articles like Osama bin Laden: The thorn in Pakistan's flesh (August 22, 2001) ...

American rebel vs American al-Qaeda
Unleashed only one week before the US presidential election, Eminem's "Mosh" is a stunning piece of political hip-hop. But even as this millionaire white-trash rapper does his bit toward regime change in the White House, another video emerges, this one featuring an alleged al-Qaeda operative vowing, in English, that "the streets of America will run red with blood". - Pepe Escobar (Oct 29, '04)

The eternal circle of the Iraqi insurgency
Another assault on Iraq's troubled city of Fallujah by US troops and Iraqi forces is in the works, a signal Washington has yet to re-evaluate its reliance on military force as a way of conflict resolution. Such bloody incursions only decrease the chances of putting an end to the Iraqi insurgency, instead adding to an already high death toll. - Ashraf Fahim (Oct 29, '04)

US occupation through Iraqi eyes
Rumored to be Iraq's next ambassador to the US, formerly exiled Iraqi author Kanan Makiya has earned his fair share of criticism for close links to Bush administration hawks. But despite strongly supporting the US invasion of Iraq, Makiya is not shy about pointing out Washington's mistakes, including its handling of insurgency-plagued Fallujah. - Pan Hu (Oct 29, '04)

Japan stands firm in hostage crisis
By the time you read this, another hostage may be dead, beheaded, the first Japanese to be murdered in Iraq. Japan is learning that standing firm against terrorism is not a painless option, and playing a larger global role comes at a price. How Tokyo copes with these agonizing pains will help shape its future on the world stage. - J Sean Curtin (Oct 29, '04)

Malaysia rages over Muslim killings
Malaysians are reacting with outrage to the grisly deaths of more than 80 Muslim protesters in neighboring southern Thailand. Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi has asked that Thai troops take "firm action" to curb the violence; others are calling for sanctions against the country for its "excessive" use of force and blatant disregard for human life. - Anil Netto (Oct 29, '04)

Indonesian cleric back in the dock
As feelings among Muslims everywhere ran high this week, militant Muslim cleric Abu Bakar Ba'asyir - charged with a string of offenses that includes heading the al-Qaeda-linked group Jemaah Islamiyah - went before a court in Jakarta. The outcome of the long-awaited trial is certain to be pivotal for Indonesia and its ties to Islam. - Bill Guerin (Oct 29, '04)

THE ROVING EYE
The WMD-lite scandal
That highly anticipated pre-US election "October surprise" has indeed taken place, but it certainly wasn't orchestrated by the Bush administration. The disappearance of 380 tons of explosives in Iraq has hit Washington hard, leaving the neo-conservatives scrambling like mad to defuse yet another spectacular blunder. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 28, '04)

No change in US torture policy
The US has failed to change its policies on the treatment of prisoners of war, opening the door to repeated abuses and making an independent torture probe essential, the latest Amnesty International report has found. The Bush administration's "two-faced" torture strategy is proof, says the human-rights group, that it will continue violating human rights in the name of national security. - Jim Lobe

Osama and his Shi'ite nemesis
The Shi'ites of Pakistan and Afghanistan are on the hunt for their sworn enemies and they are unlikely to rest until they get them. At the top of their list are Osama bin Laden and his cohorts, whom they have mounted their own hunt against. If bin Laden is still alive, the Shi'ites, not the US, may prove to be his greatest nemesis. - B Raman (Oct 27, '04)

THE ROVING EYE
How Bush blew it in Tora Bora
The US presidential election is less than a week away and still no October surprise named Osama. Yet even if bin Laden does surface - exhibited "Saddam in chains" style - the real surprise took place in Tora Bora back in November 2001, when the Bush administration let him slip through its fingers. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 26, '04)

On Kerry, Bush and bin Laden
The still missing Osama bin Laden has become an issue in the battle for the US presidency. But was the Bush administration really at fault, as challenger John Kerry alleges, for losing bin Laden at Tora Bora? Yes and no, notes B Raman, but another question is more important: Where is Osama now, and is he even alive? (Oct 25, '04)

Bush backers steadfast on Saddam, WMD
Seventy-two percent of US President George W Bush's supporters still believe either that Iraq had actual weapons of mass destruction or a major program for making them, despite widespread media coverage of a Central Intelligence Agency indicating the contrary. And only 26% of John Kerry's supporters believe the WMD story. - Jim Lobe (Oct 23, '04)

THE ROVING EYE
Precision-strike democracy
People cannot believe that precision strikes against civilian neighborhoods are a persuasive weapon conducive to winning hearts and minds in Iraq and establishing democracy. The resistance, meanwhile, is succeeding in mobilizing the urban masses, Sunni and Shi'ite, against the occupation. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 21, '04)

PART 2: The US-Israel tag-team act
After President George W Bush's "reinventing the wheel" in the use of preemption against Iraq, Israel is chomping at the bit at the prospects of an encore performance in carrying out preemptive attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities. But it is not as simple as that. This is the concluding article in a report by Ehsan Ahrari. (Oct 21, '04)

SPEAKING FREELY
Suicide bombing, the theology of death
Martyrdom, claimed a 25-year-old failed suicide bomber, is not "real death". Indeed, in the three monotheistic religions, redemption is the ultimate goal, and modern mythology spices it up for (male) Muslims with the promise of 72 virgins in Paradise. That promise is not found in the Koran, which may be why the children of religious leaders never blow themselves up. - Rabbi Moshe Reiss

The dangers of playing hardball with Iran
Iran's adamant rejection of the United Nations'  watchdog's demand that it halt its uranium enrichment program sets the stage for the fulfillment of the US's long-sought drive to bring the matter before the UN Security Council. Yet there are serious pitfalls in this approach - and Iran does have an answer to the crisis. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 20, '04)

TERROR ON THE HIGH SEAS
PART 3: Strategies for maritime security
It would be ideal if the policing of Southeast Asian waters - with its thousands of islands and hidden alcoves - were under the control of a centralized, neutral body. But the onus of maritime security falls on regional players, who must work together now more than ever, writes Eric Koo in the concluding article of this report. (Oct 20, '04)

   Thinking beyond port security

THE ROVING EYE
Zarqawi and al-Qaeda, unlikely bedfellows
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's reported swearing of his jihadi group's allegiance to al-Qaeda is mystifying. The al-Qaeda nucleus is a mix of hardcore Saudi Wahhabis and the Egyptians of Islamic Jihad. Zarqawi's group contains Jordanians, Palestinians and Syrians, and they are Salafis, Islamic purists. True or false, though, the effects will be felt in Fallujah. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 19, '04)

Iraqi forces short on security
A key part of the Bush administration's strategy in Iraq is to hand over security functions to Iraqis. Despite bold claims, though, the nascent military is woefully undermanned and undertrained, while planned civil intervention forces and emergency response units have barely gotten off the ground. - David Isenberg (Oct 19, '04)

More ammunition for Musharraf's foes
By reneging on his pledge to choose between the presidency and his army uniform, President General Pervez Musharraf faces, at best, a constitutional crisis. At worst, pressure groups, including officers in the army, opposition political parties and jihadis, will be spurred into action. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 19, '04)

Nuclear genie let loose
Fears of nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands persist. And it's not just North Korea and Iran - the possibility of nuclear weapons being used by terrorists is frighteningly high. Clearly there exist the technology and know-how to make nukes anywhere in the world - and deliver them - with little chance of detection. - Mark Erickson (Oct 18, '04)

Chinese 'operatives' face Pakistani wrath
The presence of Chinese engineers and other experts in Pakistan's nuclear and missile establishments and in the armed forces is generally welcomed, including by jihadi organizations. Much less welcome are Chinese "workers" active in the hunt for Uighur dissidents. - B Raman (Oct 18, '04)

India softens on Xinjiang
For the first time in several decades, a leader from China's restive Xinjiang region has visited India. This is significant in itself, given Delhi's claim to territory in Xinjiang, while the visit is also evidence of the deepening relationship between India and China. - Sudha Ramachandran (Oct 18, '04)

Hostage death adds to Musharraf's woes
With the death of a Chinese hostage in Pakistan, the government's immediate task is to track down the mastermind of the kidnapping, Abdullah Mehsud, and then prepare for further major plots being hatched in South Waziristan aimed at destabilizing the administration of President General Pervez Musharraf. -Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 15, '04)

COMMENTARY
Retracing the path of infamy
As Ronald Reagan used Pakistan to defeat the Soviet Union in the 1980s, President George W Bush is now using the country to win his "war on terrorism". This leaves President General Pervez Musharraf a free hand to cement his own power - just like former dictator Zia ul-Haq. - Ehsan Ahrari (Oct 15, '04)

Prison abuse back in the dock
Calls by the US Army's criminal division that 28 US soldiers be charged in connection with the deaths of two prisoners in Afghanistan just under two years ago have raised the issue of the establishment of an entirely independent investigation of abuses of detainees by US forces in the "war on terrorism". - Jim Lobe (Oct 15, '04)

America's tortuous road to Abu Ghraib
After September 11, "pro-pain pundits" repudiated Enlightenment ideals and began publicly discussing whether torture might be an appropriate, even necessary, weapon in the "war on terror". Not long after that, the Abu Ghraib scandal arose. Yet such incidents are the product of a deeply contradictory US policy toward torture since the start of the Cold War. - Alfred W McCoy (Oct 15, '04)

THE ROVING EYE
Bush's man for all seasons
From a two-bit thug into an overnight international terrorist with a finger in every pie, Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been thrust into the limelight through the many emails, threats, communiques and grisly videos attributed to him, especially in Iraq. The "Zarqawi" myth is certainly bigger than the man. But this suits the Bush administration just fine. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 14, '04)

Foreign hands fuel Pakistan's strife
As a result of the sectarian violence that has claimed more than 75 lives in the past fortnight, Pakistani security officials have rounded up hundreds of activists across the country. If the violence is to end, though, the net will have to be cast beyond Pakistan's borders, starting with Iran and Afghanistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 14, '04)

Killers turn to suicide
Sectarian violence in Pakistan is not new. What is changing is the way in which rival groups settle their scores. In the past guns and bombs were the weapons of choice: suicide bombers are now more frequently being thrown into the mix. - Sudha Ramachandran (Oct 14, '04)

Korea braces for taste of terror
The government says a heretofore unknown terrorist group vows to launch attacks within South Korea unless Seoul withdraws more than 3,000 troops from Iraq. The group claims that its operatives are stationed within Korea and are "awaiting the zero hour" - very soon. - Bruce Klingner (Oct 15, '04)

Both US parties link Iraq to September 11
Despite mounting evidence, and the conclusions of the 9-11 Commission itself, that Saddam Hussein's secular regime had nothing to do with al-Qaeda, and that other alleged Iraqi connections to terrorism have been negligible if not disproved outright, Republican and Democratic representatives passed a resolution linking Iraq to the events of September 11, 2001. Stephen Zunes explains why. (Oct 15, '04)

SPEAKING FREELY
America's identity crisis
The United States is a young country, lacking much of the history, culture and homogeneity that provide other nations with self-identity. It has coped with this in a variety of ways, one of which is to maintain a perpetual system of conflict against an "enemy" - another nation, an ideology, or even an individual such as Saddam Hussein. - Toni Momiroski (Oct 15, '04)

THE ROVING EYE
Deconstructing the 'war on terror'
Jacques Derrida, the last survivor of the fabulous generation of 1960s French thinkers, was the master of the concept of "deconstruction", which can be defined as a guerrilla attack on a dominant system of thought. Before he died last week, Derrida deconstructed "the war on terror", a concept that obscures current reality and hobbles our ability to fend off the next September 11. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 13, '04)

Weapons missing in action in Iraq
Revelations by the United Nations' nuclear watchdog of the disappearance of specialized equipment and material in Iraq that could be used to build a nuclear or radioactive "dirty" bomb are compounded by charges that the US and the interim Iraqi government have not cooperated in tracking the missing items.(Oct 13, '04)

Bali in the shadow of terror
It's been two years since the Bali bombings killed 202 people and introduced Jemaah Islamiyah, the vanguard of Islamic militants in Southeast Asia, to the world. So what has become of the terrorist group? Aside from a few senior arrests, not much. The JI network remains resilient and appears capable of mounting future Bali-sized attacks. - Yeo Wei Meng (Oct 12, '04)

Revival defies doomsayers
Experts said it would take 10 years for Indonesia's US$5.4 billion tourism industry to recover from the Bali attacks of two years ago. But tourism is booming, thanks to an obvious, if unlikely, source. - Gary LaMoshi (Oct 12, '04)

Violent turn for 'Pakistani al-Qaeda'
In going after foreign militants in Pakistan, the authorities are doing no better than shadow boxing. The opponents - "Pakistani al-Qaeda" - are already a step ahead, and have begun the first part of their master plan: creating maximum anarchy. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 12, '04)

Hand it to the warlords
Hamid Karzai, with his US backing and Pashtun roots, is favored to win Saturday's presidential elections in Afghanistan. Local warlords, though, with the immense power they wield over their fiefdoms and voters, cannot be overlooked. Deals, therefore, are already being made, even though such arrangements tend to backfire, with disastrous results. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 8, '04)

Sidelined neo-cons stoke future fires
The neo-conservative star in the Bush administration might be dimmed, but it is far from fallen: neo-cons are actively calling for covert action, at the very least, to oust what some of them call the "terror masters" in Iran as part of a more general "World War IV" against Arab and Islamic extremism. - Jim Lobe (Oct 8, '04)

PART 4: Ominous signs
What happens after the voting could do more to determine the perceived legitimacy of the elections in the eyes of Afghans than the actual polls themselves. (Oct 7, '04)

'Asia flyover' in US campaign
The US presidential candidates ignore Asia, except for North Korea. There's no big difference between President George W Bush and Senator John Kerry on China. In fact, they are quite mild, no China-bashing. Analysts say China wants stability and may prefer the devil it knows. - Bruce Klingner (Oct 7, '04)

US spy vs Indian spy
The US offering the help of its Federal Bureau of Investigation to the chief minister of Assam in the investigation of the recent bomb blasts in the state is not unusual in itself - intelligence agencies routinely cooperate in such matters. What is odd is the manner in which the offer was made, which has set off alarm bells in Delhi. - B Raman (Oct 7, '04)

Terrorism links in Indonesia point to military
The election of former general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as Indonesia's new president raises hopes that Indonesia will take a tougher line against terrorists. His military know-how may provide the solution to combating terrorism in the world's most populous Muslim nation, but so far the military has been part of the problem. - Gary LaMoshi (Oct 7, '04)

Now for the real battle of Samarrah
US-led forces have regained control of the Sunni city of Samarrah. However, establishing effective civilian control over such areas may prove as difficult as any military victory, and if such control is not established, elections will be cast in doubt. (Oct 6, '04)

OPINION
Kerry dead wrong on North Korea
In the first US presidential debate focused on foreign policy, Senator John Kerry charged that the Bush administration had neglected the North Korean nuclear threat and said he would resume bilateral talks with North Korea if elected. That would be an egregious foreign and security policy blunder. - Marc Erikson (Oct 4, '04)

Bush got it wrong too
Both Republicans and Democrats concerned about the Korean Peninsula should be distressed that neither President George W Bush nor Senator John Kerry got their facts straight. In fact, they managed to make any near-term progress in the stalled six-party talks virtually impossible. - Ralph A Cossa (Oct 4, '04)

Wake-up call from India's northeast
With terror attacks claiming the lives of scores of people over the weekend in India's northeast, it is all the more apparent that Delhi has failed to break the nexus between narcotics smugglers and the various insurgent and terrorist groups in the region, or stop the ongoing illegal migration of Muslims from Bangladesh. - B Raman  (Oct 5, '04)

The costs of the failed Iraqi transition
To date, the US Congress has approved US$151.1 billion for Iraq. An exhaustive new report studies what these costs have meant for the US and Iraq, not just in monetary terms, but also in lives, the environment, as well as the general well-being of the world at large. And it isn't over yet. (Oct 2, '04)

COMMENTARY
The intelligent answer to the Iraqi problem
In Iraq, as was the case in the Vietnam War, the US has a vast superiority in the "technowar" it is waging. But the main weapon of the underdog is in his nature. And when that nature has no single identifiable authority, there is only one key to the unquantifiable: intelligence. - Alexander Casella (Oct 2, '04)

Saudi militants down, but not out
While the shift from large-scale attacks to assassinations of individual Western civilians in Saudi Arabia might signal militant outfits are under pressure, declarations of victory by the kingdom are premature. The expatriate exodus continues, as militants lie low and regroup. - Sudha Ramachandran (Oct 2, '04)

Korea nuke talks likely stalled until 2005
The last round of talks to defuse the North Korean nuclear crisis was supposed to be held in September. Well, that came and went. And with the US presidential election weeks away, it now looks as though the talks will be stalled until 2005 when President George W Bush is likely to be returned to office. - Aidan Foster-Carter (Oct 2, '04)