January 2005 

THE ROVING EYE
Why the US will not leave Iraq
Iraq's elections will see Shi'ites taking power in the Arab world for the first time in 14 centuries. The Shi'ites' premier electoral promise - later reneged on - was to negotiate a total American withdrawal, so the US will be in no hurry for a swift pullout. But as long as the US stays, the resistance will become even bloodier. - Pepe Escobar (Jan 31, '05)

It's not the vote that counts
Iraq's day at the polls has come and gone. For many of those who chose to stay away, though, this is of little importance. Nada al-Rubaiee of the Iraqi Patriotic Alliance, a collection of Iraqi groups opposed to the US occupation of Iraq, tells Syed Saleem Shahzad why the vote didn't matter. (Jan 31, '05)

So, who really did win?
By going out to vote in large numbers on Sunday, a great majority of Iraqis said no to the death cult of the Islamists and proclaimed their right and intention to live a more normal life. They also took a big step away from the Saddam Hussein era and the more recent past of American occupation and insurgent violence. - Marc Erikson (Jan 31, '05)

IRAQ VOTES Why insurgents may be the winners  Iraq's Shi'ites see themselves as winners in Sunday's elections. So do the Kurds, who are getting bold in their political demands. For its part, the US counts on sustained Kurdish-Shi'ite cooperation in the post-election environment. Should this arrangement falter - and there are myriad reasons why it could - there can be only one winner: the insurgents. - Ehsan Ahrari THE ROVING EYE Commentary by Pepe Escobar It's celebration time Shi'ites, the Pentagon, the Sunni Iraqi resistance, the rest of the world, even Henry Kissinger; they all have reason to celebrate Sunday's elections in Iraq, and all of their reasons are different. But there can only be one winner - and it won't be democracy. All power to the Shi'ites There's little doubt that Shi'ite political and religious parties will do well in Sunday's elections for a new Iraqi National Assembly. However, it is not as clear which candidate list will win the most votes and which political groupings will dominate. The Sunnis, meanwhile, look on. (Jan 28, '05)

US teeters on line in the sand
First Afghanistan, now Iraq, which goes to the polls on January 30. The US will once again most likely get a government to its liking. From the Bush administration's viewpoint, a collection of pacific but independent Muslim states in the Middle East will preclude the emergence of a regional hegemon capable of upsetting the existing balance of power. That is precisely what Iran - the next target? - and al-Qaeda want to avoid. (Jan 27, '05)

Iran in US sights
With Iran still a US target, war plans are in the pipeline in northern Iraq on one side of the Iranian border, and in the southwestern parts of Pakistan on another side. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 27, '05)

Another Iraqi cul-de-sac
Ever since the invasion of Iraq nearly two years ago, we have been promised a series of "turning points" in the violent debacle of the US occupation -the capture of Saddam Hussein, the transfer of sovereignty, the recapture of Fallujah. But every "turning point" has proved instead to be a cul-de-sac. True to form, this Sunday's elections will likely be a cure worse than the disease. - Dilip Hiro (Jan 27, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
Vote or no vote, we will kill you
The key issue after the Iraqi elections will be how to kick out the Americans. It's also the only window of opportunity for the future Shi'ite government to woo moderate Sunnis, and the only way to isolate the guerrilla resistance. But the resistance has time. It has loads of weapons, plenty of financing and thousands of members, and any new government will be seen as a mortal enemy. - Pepe Escobar (Jan 26, '05)

Zarqawi vs Sistani
In one corner is Shi'ite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who has proved himself to be a political genius in turning the toppling of Saddam Hussein into a seemingly permanent victory for Shi'ites. In the other corner is Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, whose sole weapon is the use of terror. Iraqis now have to decide between the two. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jan 26, '05)

Rocky road to polls
Iraq's election on January 30 comes almost two years after the US-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. The road to elections has been - and remains - full of uncertainties, from the toppling of Saddam Hussein to rid the country of its presumed weapons of mass destruction to efforts to guide the country to a more democratic future. (Jan 26, '05)

Confusion amid the chaos
The polling process itself for the January 30 Iraqi elections is confusing many people. With 7,785 mostly unnamed candidates on the lists of 83 coalitions of political parties, voters have little idea who they will be voting for. (Jan 26, '05)

SPEAKING FREELY
Iran approaches a flashpoint
As long as America remains militarily engaged in the Middle East, Israel will enjoy an unquestioned level of support on all fronts. This is exactly why striking at Iran's nuclear facilities, although a militarily fruitless act, will be intended to provide added fuel for regional turmoil. - Kam Zarrabi (Jan 26, '05)

The sound of one hand clapping
Asian politicians and pundits are reacting with both applause and alarm to the new US foreign-policy emphasis delineated in President George W Bush's inauguration speech and Condoleezza Rice's confirmation hearings. Their conflicting messages of activism and restraint have led to confusion over the extent to which the US will pursue a unilateralist policy to depose oppressive regimes. - Bruce Klingner (Jan 25, '05)

COMMENT
The negative force of anti-Bushism
The United States is undeniably a great country and, as some have noted, "the indispensable power". Yet its policies are increasingly reviled outside the US, especially in Europe and the Muslim world. This "anti-Americanism" is not a reaction against what the US stands for, but the result of the impulsive behavior of just one man: George W Bush. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jan 25, '05)

The battle of the tyrants
The current struggle under the general rubric of "global war on terrorism" does not enjoy the conceptual or perceptual clarity of the Cold War era: US President George W Bush has wrapped himself in the slogans of liberty and depicts himself as a fighter against tyranny, while Iraq's "terrorist-in-chief", Musab al-Zarqawi, makes a point of describing the US as a tyrant. Both can't be right. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jan 22, '05)

Bush unclouded by doubt
President Bush's inaugural address may have provided his core constituency with the righteous resolve and soaring freedom-loving rhetoric they crave, but to others it was a speech veiled in generalities: his failure even to mention Iraq speaks volumes about his administration's vulnerabilities. - Jim Lobe (Jan 22, '05)

The Kirkuk tinderbox
With Kurdish control of the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk a strong possibility after the January 30 elections, Turkey is becoming increasingly edgy as it fears that its Kurds will be stirred into making similar demands. Ankara's concern is pushing it further away from the US, and closer to Iran and Russia. - K Gajendra Singh (Jan 22, '05)

Iraqi polls and exit strategies
As Iraqi elections draw near, the US faces an increasingly complicated intervention. Although stability is the US's aim, it is unlikely these elections will alter the present dynamic - in fact they may even add fuel to the fire. This makes the need for viable exit strategies all the more pressing. (Jan 21, '05)

The dangers of silencing Saudi dissent
The inclusion of Saudi dissident Saad al-Faqih and his organization on a UN terror list comes after US pressure: Bush administration policy is geared toward the survival of the House of Saud. But the move to silence Faqih, who has lived openly in the United Kingdom since 1994, could ultimately have a counterproductive effect on the fight against terrorism. - Mahan Abedin (Jan 20, '05)

Kidnappings keep Iraq pot boiling
The kidnapping of eight Chinese workers this week in Iraq illustrates just one facet of the Iraqi resistance, which is spread among myriad groups that specialize in their own particular brand of resistance, ranging from suicide attacks to sabotage. - B Raman (Jan 20, '05)

Once more, the heat's on Tehran
Claims that US special forces are operating from bases in Pakistan to conduct reconnaissance missions in Iran would fit the theory that Islamabad wants to appease the US by establishing a clear distance between itself and Tehran, given the previous nuclear cooperation between the two countries. But this still leaves Iran in the firing line. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jan 18, '05)

Karachi opens door to US forces
Pakistan has allowed special forces from the US and Britain to stage exercises in the port city of Karachi to prepare them for possible action in Iran, the first time in the history of Pakistan that armed forces, including the Pakistani army, have been known to stage exercises in urban areas. - Syed Saleem Shahzad and Masood Anwar (Jan 18, '05)

Pakistan weaves an elaborate web
President General Pervez Musharraf's clandestine cooperation with the US against Iran started in February 2002. Prior to this, Pakistan covertly helped Tehran in its efforts to acquire a clandestine military nuclear capability in return for Iranian funding of its own military nuclear program. More about-turns can be expected. - B Raman (Jan 18, '05)

Ansar al-Islam spreads its wings
Best known for its violent attacks inside Iraq, Ansar al-Islam now appears to be stepping up its activities in Europe. Increasingly presenting itself as a pan-Islamic movement, the extremist group has been tied to two foiled attacks on European soil - which also happens to be fertile ground for jihadi recruiters. - Sudha Ramachandran (Jan 14, '05)

The 2020 vision of US intelligence
Despite their numerous failures to see what is happening in the here and now, US intelligence agencies under the umbrella of the National Intelligence Council have confidently presented a report forecasting the shape of the world in the year 2020. Remarkably, that world looks a lot like the one we live in now - a prognosis that can only be described as pessimistic. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jan 14, '05)

Zoellick plies a new trade
By picking former US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick as Condoleezza Rice's deputy, President George W Bush has sought to consolidate his foreign policy team. The vanguard of corporate America, Zoellick's my-way-or-the-highway approach to global economy issues gels well with the administration's unilateralism in foreign and military policy. (Jan 14, '05)

Wrong way: US gets street wise
Perhaps a direct result of the ongoing bloodbath in Iraq, or maybe because the White House has realized its Middle East policies aren't earning any friends in the Arab street, the Bush administration's rhetorical zeal for democracy-making in the Middle East appears to be waning. Refusing to be silenced, however, is the chorus of the neo-conservatives. - Ashraf Fahim (Jan 12, '05)

Golems of violence
A combination of ignorance about the other side and arrogance about their own power and righteousness have led conservative American and Sunni Iraqi leaders alike to create what one could call the twin golems of violence to protect their opposing interests. In Jewish folklore, the golem is either forced to flee or is destroyed by its creator. - Mark LeVine (Jan 12, '05)

Musharraf blusters as Balochistan boils
Reacting to an attack on Tuesday by tribals on a gas field in Balochistan province, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf has warned of a tough military response to any further insurgency. But although the general's words might be strong, putting them into action will come with dangerous consequences. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 13, '05)

The taming of Sadr City
The US effort to destroy the insurgency in Iraq can only succeed if it also destroys the ability of the Iraqis to govern their own communities - hence the attack on the Sunni stronghold of Fallujah. Yet Sadr City, the vast slum in Baghdad at the heart of the Shi'ite rebellion, has evolved into a virtually independent city-state, a "liberated area" in the classic guerrilla warfare model. Something will have to give. - Michael Schwartz (Jan 11, '05) 

Prewar planning failures highlighted
Yet another report, this one by a key Pentagon advisory group, has implicitly taken the Bush administration to task for major failures in prewar planning, particularly with respect to Iraq. Coming under withering fire is the failure to use available resources, including State Department expertise, to stabilize Iraq. - Jim Lobe (Jan 11, '05)

UN comes out off-white
In a rebuff to the ongoing campaign by US neo-conservatives to undermine the United Nations, a series of internal audits of the US$65 billion oil-for-food program in Iraq has revealed overbilling and management lapses by UN supervisors, but no large-scale fraud. The issue is far from settled, though. (Jan 11, '05)

The devastation of Iraq
A decidedly unembedded American journalist, Dahr Jamail has spent seven of the past 12 months in Iraq. Early in 2004, he was alarmed by what the occupation was doing to the Iraqi people, and the abject failure to provide something as basic as drinkable water. Now, in early 2005, there is little or no evidence of progress. (Jan 11, '05)

Musharraf ups the ante on Kashmir
The US needs Pakistan's support in its global adventures, especially in Afghanistan, where Islamabad has the potential to dramatically stoke the resistance fires. Capitalizing on this, and to shore up failing support in the army, President General Pervez Musharraf is now putting a price on his support of the US: Kashmir. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 7, '05)

Commentary                by Ehsan Ahrari Vanished fear of an al-Qaeda attack  Americans are no longer inundated with fear-mongering warnings of imminent al-Qaeda attacks. But to assume that this means the terror network no longer poses a threat to the US homeland would be a foolish mistake; al-Qaeda, like Washington, is merely tied up with business in Iraq. (Jan 7, '05)

Tsunamis won't stop jihadis
It would be delusional to believe that because of the enormous tragedy, jihadi terrorists will refrain from acts of terrorism in tsunami-ravaged countries, lest violence antagonize the local population. They have never cared for public opinion and public revulsion has never stopped them from taking action. - B Raman (Jan 5, '05)

Iraq war bites US business
Multinational brands closely identified with the US, notably Marlboro, American Express and McDonald's, are losing sales, particularly in Europe, as a result of the Bush administration's foreign policy, according to a major new poll. - Jim Lobe (Jan 5, '05)

Al-Qaeda's unfinished work
The al-Qaeda attacks on US embassies in Africa in 1998 forced Washington to the realization that a new terror ring had emerged which was after US interests. September 11 confirmed this in no uncertain manner. Al-Qaeda has much bigger plans, though, hatched many years ago on the battlefields of Afghanistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 4, '05)

US 'spying' raises Indian hackles
Washington's interest in India's insurgency-infested northeast has set off a growing chorus of opposition within New Delhi's defense circles. Sultan Shahin speaks to a number of military experts to find out why, and examines whether such concerns are valid in today's post-September 11 environment. (Jan 4 '05)

What lies ahead for jihadi terrorism
While incidents of terrorism in the name of "jihad" are likely to take place throughout the world in the coming year, the stage is set for further displays of strategic violence in the usual hotspots, including Saudi Arabia, Pakistan/Afghanistan and the United States. And don't forget Iraq, where more trouble is brewing in the runup to elections. - B Raman (Jan 3, '05)

Mosul attack 'an inside job'
The Iraqi military is riddled with members of the resistance, Asia Times Online has been told, and this is what enabled a suicide bomber to penetrate the heart of US security in Mosul. And whether they be Ba'athists, Islamists or jihadis, the insurgents are united behind a common goal: "freedom from foreign occupying forces". - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Dec 24, '04)

Pakistan lays down the agenda for the US
In exchange for continued cooperation in the United States' "war on terror", Pakistan is demanding a few extra carrots, including further economic aid and weapons. Pakistan's ambassador to the US laid out these expectations in a recent speech, meanwhile stressing the need to forget about nuclear kingpin A Q Khan and the "proliferation episode". - Seema Sirohi Dec 24, '04)

THE ROVING EYE
First we vote, then we kick you out
As the January 30 elections near, the majority of Iraqis have one thing on their minds: get the US occupiers out - and get them out fast. At the moment, however, the risk of post-election civil war is stronger than ever, with various factions refusing to sit back and let the Shi'ites take control of the country. - Pepe Escobar (Dec 23, '05)

Where Osama bin Laden went wrong
Just as Washington has lamented its failure to prevent the attacks of September 11, 2001, the attackers, too, likely feel pangs of regret. Had Osama bin Laden been patient and worked to consolidate the Taliban's gains made through the assassination of the Northern Alliance leader two days earlier, his dreams for the Central Asian region might have come closer to fruition. - Vikram Sood (Dec 23, '04)

December 2004