February 2005 

ISLAM ISSUES Crusader plants new seeds He may be down, but he's certainly not out. Daniel Pipes, despite his failure to be renominated to a federally funded peace institute by President George W Bush, has kicked off a few new projects aimed at saving America from the "scourge of radical Islam". - Jim Lobe SPEAKING FREELY Defeating fundamentalism US military force may play a role is containing Islamic fundamentalism, but at the same time it strengthens hardline ideology among adherents and invites fresh sympathizers. Instead, the US should adopt the same tactics it used against Marxism-Leninism. - Mark N Katz (Feb 25, '05)

The remaking of al-Qaeda
A US-sponsored media blitz in Pakistan offering US$25 million for information on Osama bin Laden is just the beginning in a new phase in tackling al-Qaeda. The next targets are a breed of independent, al-Qaeda-inspired cells around the world. Ahmed Abu Ali, on trial in the US for allegedly plotting to kill President George W Bush, could well be an example of what the US is up against. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 24, '05)

Bush's 'priceless' war
A new report on the cost of the Bush administration's foray into Iraq estimates the war and ongoing insurgency could cost the United States between US$461 billion and $646 billion by 2015. And these are only the costs that are disclosed. - David Isenberg (Feb 24, '05)

COMMENT
Open door ushers in political Islam
Tsunami relief operations may have opened Aceh, and even Indonesia, to the West, but the rise of both political Islam and Indonesian nationalism appears to have consolidated in tandem. - Eric Teo Chu Cheow (Feb 24, '05)

Jihad, from Iraq to Kuwait
Calls from Osama bin Laden for the spread of jihad to states in the Middle East cooperating with the US are being answered: just look at Kuwait. - B Raman (Feb 24, '05)

The peace pipe's on the table
Iran, under its accord with the European Union, has agreed to "objective guarantees" that would ensure the peaceful nature of its nuclear activities. The US, in persisting to point accusatory fingers at Tehran, chooses to ignore this. At the peril of peace. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Feb 22, '05)

Lebanon, through the past darkly
With the death of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, the country's volatile ethnic and religious mix is primed to explode once again. For Syria, widely accused, especially in the US, of playing a part in the murder, the vise tightens, especially as Moscow has confirmed that it will sell a new air missile defense system to Damascus. - K Gajendra Singh (Feb 19, '05)

The Negroponte challenge
The nomination of career foreign-service officer John Negroponte as the first US director of national intelligence follows reports that while President George W Bush would have preferred an intelligence professional for the post, none was willing to take it on. The reasons are clear: the job description is formidable, and the likelihood of cooperation by such as Donald Rumsfeld low. - B Raman (Feb 19, '05)

 JIM LOBE: A win for the realists

 TERROR: Al-Qaeda's European grip
- Rachidi Ilhem
 
Thai car bomb puts new spin on violence
Violence escalated in Thailand's Muslim-majority south after a car bomb exploded in a busy nightlife district in a border town on Thursday evening, killing six people and injuring up to 40. The attack marks a worrying new twist in the violence, as it is the first and deadliest of its kind to hit southern Thailand. (Feb 19, '05)

Iraqi withdrawal symptoms
The US continues to attempt to square the circle of Iraqi anti-occupation sentiment with its own economic and military prerogatives, which may or may not coincide with Iraq's. In the meantime, US troops stay put. - Ashraf Fahim (Feb 19, '05)

US security threats, new and old
Some of the testimony by new intelligence czar Porter Goss to the US Congress this week was a bit strange, especially the remarks that seemed aimed at antagonizing China at precisely the wrong moment. In regards to Iran and Syria, though, the Central Intelligence Agency's ominous prognostications are not only well timed, but are likely to increase pressure on both of those countries. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 17, '05)

Kuwait feels militant heat
Gun battles between police and militants in Kuwait. This is not supposed to happen in the relatively liberal and settled Arab country. For al-Qaeda, though, attacking Westerners and US troops in Kuwait and oil facilities there is an effective way of undermining American military operations in the region. - Sudha Ramachandran (Feb 17, '05) 

IRAQ ELECTIONS When losers are winners Despite the United Iraqi Alliance winning 48% of provisional votes in the Iraqi elections, the figure is less than expected, giving the Kurds (26%) a powerful say in the composition of the new government. The results will please the US, with no one group too dominant. But the real winners could still be Sunni Arabs and insurgents. - Ehsan Ahrari THE ROVING EYE Before the breakup, the breakdown The Iraqi election results don't really illustrate who are the real winners and losers: there are currently too many variables and competing interests to give an accurate picture. One thing, though, is crystal-clear - the Sunni Iraqi resistance vs US occupation will continue. - Pepe Escobar US fights back against 'rule by clerics' For the US, calls from the Shi'ite-dominated southern Iraqi provinces for some sort of autonomy are one thing. That these calls could be the precursor to introducing vilayet-e-faqih (rule by the clergy) across the country is entirely another matter. Washington is taking this eventuality seriously, and, with the assistance of Pakistan, is ready to fight back. Literally. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 14, '05)

Commentary                by Ehsan Ahrari Saudis grapple with terrorism Saudi Arabia is taking tentative steps toward countering terrorism. More needs to be done: the authorities need to chip away at Wahhabi puritanism that insists on maintaining a notion of monolithism - a notion that is alien to Islam. (Feb 11, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
The Shi'ites' Faustian pact
Shi'ite leaders don't want the US military to leave, just yet, for fear of a bloodbath. This suits the US, which will consolidate military bases, and do something about Iraq's oil riches, possibly even privatize the industry. Yet the Shi'ite leadership will find it almost impossible to maintain public support without telling the Americans to leave. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 10, '05)

Trouble on India's islands
While the Indian army has become rock-solid in the western front against any Pakistani adventurism, it has become highly vulnerable in its eastern sector, where the enemy is not a national army but a multitude of secessionist, terrorist and drug-running militants, many of whom have set up bases in the Andaman Islands. - Ramtanu Maitra (Feb 10, '05)

Coming to terms with Sistani 
Being always in need of legitimate leaders to work with, the US cannot afford alienating Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, given his overriding influence in the Shi'ite community. But first, Washington has to understand that Sistani sees himself as Iraq's guardian, and not as its political puppet master, as some accuse him of wanting to become. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 9, '05)

Pakistan leaves arms calling card
Pakistani military officials and government-affiliated specialists have recently made a series of public and private presentations and studies in the US highlighting potential nuclear dangers in South Asia. The underlying thread is to support Islamabad's position that Washington should supply it with major weapons as a counter to India. - Kaushik Kapisthalam (Feb 9, '05)

India makes a play for F-16 fighters
India has voiced its intention to buy 125 fighter jets, and has approached US-based Lockheed Martin Corp for its highly coveted F-16s. But given that Pakistan also wants to add to its fleet of F-16s, New Delhi's move is highly contentious, at the least. - Siddharth Srivastava (Feb 9, '05)

Washington takes a new tack
In a series of calibrated statements, senior US officials have toned down their rhetoric against Iran and its perceived nuclear weapons program. This downsizing of calls for regime change is no coincidence: Tehran has given Washington much food for thought. - M K Bhadrakumar (Feb 8, '05)

US digs in deeper in Afghanistan
With the trail of al-Qaeda in Pakistan going cold and President George W Bush secure for another four years, the US has different priorities in the "war on terror": to consolidate its role in Afghanistan and beyond. A new North Atlantic Treaty Organization base in Afghanistan will help the cause. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 8, '05)

Sistani begins on his true agenda 

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani never had any doubts about what he wanted: use the much-cherished democracy of Americans to enable his people - the Shi'ites - to emerge as rulers of Iraq. Now, Sistani has called for Islam to be the sole source of legislation in the new constitution. But theocracy has never been an acceptable proposition in Washington. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 7, '05)

Exit, by the left
For those who support keeping US troops in Iraq, any suggestion that they be withdrawn is usually derided as "cutting and running". But the Pentagon has already drawn up plans for a staged reduction of troops. - David Isenberg (Feb 7, '05)

Commentary             by Kaveh L Afrasiabi Demonizing Iran: Another US salvo President George W Bush has once again hit out at Iran, and Congress is considering even tougher sanctions against the country. This comes precisely at a time when the pool of shared or parallel interests between Iran and the US has expanded considerably. (Feb 4, '05)

Carrot games in Afghanistan
Taking advantage of the Afghan resistance's shattered situation, resulting from a lack of funds, no safe sanctuary and no external help, the US aims to woo as many resistance commanders as it can into the mainstream political fold. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 4, '05)

SPENGLER
The dotage of Iraq's democracy
In the case of Iraq, democracy was born already in its old age, hooked up to intravenous devices and breathing tubes and kept alive on the fiscal equivalent of an iron lung - oil. This can in no way be confused with self-determination. (Feb 1, '05)

Where the missing $9 billion went
Nearly US$9 billion the previous US-run administration in Baghdad transferred to various Iraqi ministries went unaccounted for, according to an official US report, which cited "severe inefficiencies and poor management". (Feb 1, '05)

January 2005