March 2005 

Why World War IV can't sell
To the disappointment of the neo-cons, their warlike mantra has not sold with the American public, whether the jingle of the day is "World War IV", "long war", or "Millennium War". That's why President George W Bush is talking ever less about waging a global war and ever more about democratizing the world. - John Brown (Mar 31, '05)

US scatters bases to control Eurasia
Al-Qaeda is a shadow of the past, Taliban leaders are queuing up to join the Kabul government, and the US military is not interested in tackling the opium explosion in Afghanistan. Yet the US is building nine new bases in the country. Iran should be worried. - Ramtanu Maitra (Mar 29, '05)

Manila's ID plan sure to bomb
Stirred into action by a series of deadly bombings, the Philippine government has resurrected the idea of a national identification system - an idea shot down by the public and the courts seven years ago. Yet the reasons the ID scheme didn't fly in 1998 still exist, and no one has explained how the plan will be implemented - or why terrorists would show ID before setting off a bomb. - Miriam Grace A Go (Mar 28, '05)

AMERICA'S SEARCH FOR A CALIPH
'Model for the Muslim world'
It is difficult to imagine a more unlikely caliph than Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf, but that is precisely what the United States seems determined to anoint him, writes Praveen Swami. Just don't talk about militancy and jihadis, nuclear proliferation, millions of Muslim extremists in the streets protesting, the tinderbox in Balochistan, or democracy, reports Syed Saleem Shahzad.(Mar 23, '05)

The US vision for Musharraf

Opposition at every turn

New jihadis, new threats
Just as the world has seen a revolution in military and intelligence affairs, there has also been a revolution in the unconventional manner in which non-state actors, particularly domestic and international terrorists, operate against the state. Jihadi terrorism is here to stay. - B Raman (Mar 22, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
Shocked and awed into 'freedom'
Two years on, there's no government in Iraq because of the Kirkuk tinderbox, where the Kurds want it all. Sectarianism is on the rise, security is a joke. But from a strategic Washington viewpoint, these issues are all minor. - Commentary by Pepe Escobar (Mar 22, '05)

Syria, US: Honeymoon and heartbreak
Over the past six decades the US-Syria relationship has had more ups and downs than a roller-coaster ride; currently it's in a deep dip. It need not be like this, though, unless that is how the two countries want it. - Sami Moubayed (Mar 19, '05)

The real 'China threat'
It is popular nowadays to refer to the US as the "lone superpower". This is a myth: there is now a new superpower, China - a fact that Washington and Tokyo ignore at their peril. The current US policy of encouraging and even accelerating Japanese rearmament, and both allies' self-delusion over Taiwan, are huge and very dangerous foreign policy errors. - Chalmers Johnson (Mar 19, '05)

Pakistan seeks relief through Israel ties
Islamabad believes that despite support for the US-led "war on terror", Pakistan does not get the status - and inducements - it deserves. By courting Israel, Islamabad hopes to rectify the situation, and blunt India's threat. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 16, '05)

SPENGLER
The beast that slouches toward democracy
No woolier idea ever found its way into foreign policy than the premise that democracy will promote Middle East peace. Hezbollah's Hasan Nasrullah has laid a cuckoo's egg in the nest of US policy, conjuring up the specter of a terrorist democracy. (Mar 14, '05)

Hezbollah power play
Lebanon has undergone a sea-change since the beginning of the civil war in the 1970s, yet muddled and complex politics remain. One thing is clear, though: the power that Hezbollah wields. - Sami Moubayed (Mar 14, '05)

Indonesia's trial by terror
Indonesia's legal system is under fire - notably from the US and Australia - following what is perceived as the light sentence given to Bali bomb conspirator Abu Bakar Ba'asyir. Certainly, the law often winds a tortuous and tainted course, but given the hand prosecutors were forced to play, the result is a victory of sorts. - Bill Guerin (Mar 11, '05)

BOOK REVIEW The Bomb in My Garden: The Secrets of Saddam's Nuclear Mastermind, by Mahdi Obeidi and Kurt Pitzer Mahdi Obeidi, the engineer in charge of Iraq's uranium enrichment program, reveals just how close Saddam Hussein came to acquiring a nuclear bomb. But fascinating as that story is, the book goes further - and offers the world an ominous warning about the specter of nuclear weapons proliferation. Gary LaMoshi reviews the book and interviews Obeidi. (Mar 11, '05)  Hunting deadly treasure in Iraq  Pride, science, fear yield WMD

THE ROVING EYE Commentary by Pepe Escobar Iraq, IRA-style Influential echelons of the resistance in Iraq are actively engaged in the political unification of an array of disparate groups to solidify their support among the Sunni population: this is like an Iraqi version of the Irish Republican Army polishing a Mesopotamian Sinn Fein. Unaddressed, though, is the Kurdish problem.(Mar 11, '05)

Ismailis in deadly education spat
A new dimension has been added to sectarian violence in Pakistan, which has generally run along the Sunni-Shi'ite divide, with Ismailis emerging as the main targets of Sunni hardliners. At the core of the problem lies education reform. - Sudha Ramachandran (Mar 10, '05)

The jihad lives on
Despite enthusiastic applause from the West for the anti-militancy efforts of Pakistan's "visionary" military ruler, President General Pervez Musharraf, much remains to be done on the ground before the jihadi threat is extinguished. (Mar 10, '05)

Hezbollah enters the fray
Apart from being an integral part of the Lebanese political process, Hezbollah is a crucial link in the ongoing confrontation between the US and Syria. The US, thus, is bent on sidelining Hezbollah, but the Washington-designated "terrorist" organization is more than ready for the fight. -Ashraf Fahim (Mar 10, '05)

The failings of 'the army you have'
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's now infamous remark, "You go to war with the army you have," underscores why the US military is blundering so badly in Iraq. It is stuck in a "command and control" mindset that simply does not work when combating a guerrilla insurgency. - Michael Schwartz

 MIDDLE EAST:  A federal Iraq is not the answer. - Tom R Burns and Masoud Kamali (Mar 10, '05)

CHECHEN TURMOIL Looking beyond Maskhadov Observers say the killing of Chechen leader Aslan Maskhadov is a serious blow to hopes for a peaceful settlement, and that the killing will radicalize the Chechen conflict - radical Islam is a more motivating force to the new generation of militants than it was for Maskhadov. The thoughts of a leader In an interview given just days before his death, Maskhadov gives his side of the struggle in Chechnya, and outlines a tomorrow that he will never see. (Mar 10, '05)

Goons or terrorists? Bangladesh decides
Bangladesh's banning of militant outfits is one thing, calling such groups international terrorists is quite another matter. Dhaka prefers the moniker "goons", despite compelling evidence to the contrary. - B Raman (Mar 9, '05)

Ominous call to arms in South Asia
Pakistan detects a distinct shift in Delhi's military purchase strategy, with Indian planners now focused on the specific goal of neutralizing Pakistan's nuclear warhead capability. Rattled leaders in Islamabad are developing their response: all the prerequisites for an arms race are in place. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 9, '05)

Counter-terrorism revisited
Over the past few years there has been little introspection on the United States' counter-terrorism techniques, yet these are the root cause of the lack of success in stemming terrorism. A summit this week in Madrid - a year after the bombings there - offers an opportunity for redress. - B Raman (Mar 8, '05)

 MIDDLE EAST:
The hunt for Osama bin Laden continues. It's been so long, does the US really want him?

It sounds crazy, but ...
Bush administration policy toward the Middle East is run by men routinely referred to in high circles in Washington as "the crazies". After Iraq, their target now is Iran, and they won't be deterred unless the US undergoes a radical, and honest, reassessment of its relationship with Israel. - Ray McGovern (Mar 2, '05)

Bush has clear run at Syria
Despite the highly questionable assertions that form the basis of President George W Bush's antipathy toward Syria, there have been no serious challenges to his views on Capitol Hill: Bush appears to have few obstacles should he once again choose to lead the country to war. (Mar 1, '05)

February 2005