April 2005 

THE ROVING EYE
Iraq's hostage cabinet
The fatal flaw of Iraq's cabinet is that it is hostage to a big picture it can't control - the foundations for a new nation simply don't exist. There's anarchy and little employment, and at least six militias, armed, trained and funded by the Pentagon, are on the rampage. All the elements for civil war are in place. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 29, '05)

THE DESTABILIZATION OF IRAN Stirring the ethnic pot Riots by ethnic Arabs this month have raised fears that Iran's minorities could be used as a tool by Washington and its Arab allies to dismember the Islamic republic: Iran could be vulnerable to covert operations. - Iason Athanasiadis Democratic backlash The mere fact that the US government, via a bill before the House of Representatives, has targeted pro-democracy groups in Iran for assistance is likely to cause a political backlash by the Iranian authorities against these democratic forces. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 28, '05)

Pentagon between Iraq and a hard place
Every effort the US has made to relieve the strain on its military has only made things worse, yet the Iraq misadventure drags on and the post-Vietnam "volunteer army" is in trouble. The Bush administration has several options, none of them palatable - and young Americans wonder when the draft will return. - Michael Schwartz (Apr 28, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
They shoot journalists, don't they?
Italian intelligence agent Nicola Calipari was killed, and journalist Giuliana Sgrena wounded, by US fire in Iraq. US forces were not to blame, according to the leaked findings of Washington's investigation. They seldom are, when independent journalists are the victims. Yet the uncomfortable questions remain unanswered. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 27, '05)

Syria's Ba'athists loosen the reins
The Ba'ath Party in Syria is to relax its decades-long iron grip on political control by allowing other parties to contest elections. The move is a carefully calculated gamble on the part of the government, and will also challenge United States efforts to dictate the pace of democracy in the country. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 25, '05)

Dangerous games the Saudis play
In the overall expression of hoopla and criticism related to the Saudi elections, in which hardliners triumphed, no one should forget that real change in the birthplace of Islam will come only when there is a serious dialogue about the necessity for reforming Wahhabi perspectives. - Ehsan Ahrari (Apr 25, '05)

THE NEW AMERICAN MILITARISM
New boys in town
The baton of the neo-conservative movement passed from the old generation to the new, with the founding of a new flagship mouthpiece, the Weekly Standard, in 1995. The gloves were off, and the pressure to reshape US foreign policy into one unashamedly militaristic and aggressive was on - aimed in part at the neo-cons' longtime nemesis, Saddam Hussein. This is the final of two excerpts from Andrew J Bacevich's new book. (Apr 25, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
It's terror when we say so
Last year in its annual report, the US National Counterterrorism Center listed 175 "significant" terrorist attacks in 2003. This year, the report found a sharp increase to 624 such attacks for 2004. However, this figure will not be included when the report is officially released at the end of the month. Why? Ask Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 22, '05)

A troubled triangle: Iran, India and Pakistan
Washington has identified Iran, India and Pakistan as a "troubled triangle". But energy-rich Iran, in the face of escalating tension with the US, is doing a good job of shoring up alliances and deals well beyond these two South Asian countries, notably with China and Russia. - Iason Athanasiadis (Apr 21, '05)

SPEAKING FREELY
Cooling the rhetoric on Tehran
It's time for US and Israeli officials to try some deep breathing and slow exhaling, drop the rhetoric about Iranian evil intentions, soberly reconsider some policies and presumptions, and try to build some bridges. - John F Robertson (Apr 21, '05)

THE NEW AMERICAN MILITARISM
The normalization of war
In the first of two excerpts from his new book The New American Militarism, Andrew J Bacevich, a Vietnam veteran and self-described conservative, shows how the US view of war has evolved from that of a bloody, horrifying failure of diplomacy to something that is a good, glorious, necessary part of imposing and maintaining a morally superior world order. (Apr 21, '05)

Saddam: To hang or not to hang?
Saddam Hussein may not have been put on trial yet, but new Iraqi President Jalal Talabani - a self-described opponent of the death penalty - is already facing calls from the Shi'ite United Iraqi Alliance to resign if he refuses to sign a death warrant for the former dictator. (Apr 21, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
The shadow Iraqi government
The only way Iraq's transitional government can garner any measure of popular credibility is to demand a firm deadline for total American withdrawal. This is what the Shi'ite masses voted for. Yet this is the last thing on the minds of the White House/Pentagon/Green Zone axis that controls - or will control - the country. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 20, '05)

The waxing of the Shi'ite crescent

The idea of a "fertile crescent" uniting Shi'ites across the Middle East dates back many decades. With the Shi'ites emerging as the power center in Iraq, the notion has gained new impetus, with notable support in Iran, Lebanon and Syria, and of course Iraq. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 19, '05)

Iraq key to US-Iran engagement
With Iraq showing the way, a road is opening toward a New Middle East consisting of nation-states based on national and ethnic identities without the pretentious baggage of Arab nationalism. This is good news for Iran-US dialogue. - M K Bhadrakumar (Apr 18, '05)

PART 7: History lesson for
the 'war on terror'
The Thirty Years' War was one of the most complex and brutal in European history, killing millions in battle or by malnutrition and disease, and putting into motion unpredictable forces whose effects would be felt for centuries. Many parallels can be found between that 17th-century conflict and the 21st-century "war on terror". (Apr 13, '05)

Oil, geopolitics and war with Iran
If the US attacks Iran, weapons of mass destruction - as they were in Iraq - will be cited as the principal justification. But no war is prompted by one factor alone, and the energy equation - as it was in Iraq - must be considered when Iran is sitting on huge oil and gas reserves. - Michael T Klare (Apr 12, '05)

Commentary                    by Ehsan Ahrari For Iraq, old nemeses, deadly demands The new interim government in Iraq inherits old enemies in the form of the insurgency and  demands that the US pull out its troops. Together, these promise to sap the administration's energy, but could also threaten its very existence. If it's to survive at all, the government must swiftly demonstrate its independence from Washington. (Apr 12, '05)

House of Saud re-embraces totalitarianism
Authorities in Saudi Arabia have cracked down hard on recent dissent and unrest. But the hoped-for stability is delusional in a country where underlying social and economic problems are not being addressed, and to which thousands of Saudi jihadis will return from neighboring Iraq. - John R Bradley (Apr 11, '05)

Revival of the Taliban
The Taliban-led resistance in Afghanistan has been quiet of late, leading many to speculate that it is a spent force, especially in light of many defections to join the government in Kabul. It's too early to write any obituaries: an Iraq-style resistance is to be activated very soon. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr 8, '05)

 CENTRAL ASIA: The Bush administration's Afghan spring. - Tom Engelhardt 

US designs on Syria's Kurds
The US has in the past courted the Kurds to further its interests in the Middle East. Wishful hawks in the Bush administration now want a similar scenario, hoping that Syria will persecute its Kurds, as Saddam Hussein did in 1998, to use it against Damascus. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 8, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
What's behind the new Iraq
The balance of power between Iraq's three main sectarian groups - Shi'ites, Kurds and Sunnis - has been the biggest stumbling block in forming a new government. A deal has finally emerged, but this is not the end of the matter, not by a long way: as before, the stark choice remains - politics or civil war. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 8, '05)

The myth of an Israeli strike
The hullabaloo, especially in the US, over Israel taking out Iran's nuclear facilities overlooks the anger that would be generated among the Russians, Arabs and the whole Muslim world, and that Tehran would become even more determined to build a nuclear arsenal. Further, the basic impracticalities of attacking Iran are mostly ignored by those advocating such aggression. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 7, '05)

Thai militants turning tech savvy
The use of cell phones to trigger bombs in southern Thailand indicates that insurgents operating in the region are becoming increasingly technology savvy. But their methods do not yet command the kind of expertise or specialized capabilities found in India and Pakistan. - B Raman (Apr 6, '05)

Guarding Pakistan's nuclear estate
Tell-tale signs indicate that the United States is becoming increasingly concerned about Pakistan's nuclear arsenal falling into the wrong hands, and how to deal with such an eventuality. - Kaushik Kapisthalam (Apr 6, '05)

A gentleman's agreement in Iraq
With the election of a Sunni Speaker of parliament, Iraq has taken a major step toward breaking its political logjam and the implementation of a "gentleman's agreement" between the Shi'ites and the Kurds on sharing power. This is fine for now. But such accords can become outdated, as Lebanon found out to its cost in rivers of blood. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 5, '05)

Compromise or time-bomb?
Some will argue that only through classic compromise can a new Iraqi government be formed. Others will argue that inherent in such compromise lies a time bomb primed to go off in the not too distant future.
- Bashdar Ismaeel (Apr 5, '05)

Thailand softens on the south
Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra announced that he will take a softer, gentler approach to quell an escalating insurgency in the country's troubled southern provinces, just days before a series of bomb blasts raised concerns that militants could be expanding their field of operations. (Apr 5, '05) 

US soldiers told to beat detainees
US Army documents dragged into the public domain appear to show that the mistreatment of detainees in Iraq was much more widespread than the government has admitted - and that authorization of abuses that led to torture and even death came from high in the chain of command. (Apr 2, '05)

March 2005