May 2005

Al-Qaeda poised in Saudi Arabia
King Fahd's health is rapidly deteriorating, and the al-Qaeda iceberg could become an important factor in determining the course of events in the post-Fahd transition in Saudi Arabia. - B Raman (May 31, '05)

US military in a twilight zone
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's notion of military "transformation", in which the speedy deployment of US forces has been given higher priority than mundane and labor-intensive matters such as fighting insurgencies, is leading to a cowed and politicized military establishment. - Jim Lobe (May 31, '05)

Move over, Zarqawi
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is injured. Zarqawi escapes capture. Zarqawi is alive and well. No one really knows what's going on with the US's enemy No 1 in Iraq. This may be part of the problem in beating the resistance. All the focus on Zarqawi overlooks the one man who could still make a difference: Saddam Hussein. - B Raman (May 26, '05)

Something for Pyongyang to chew on
North Korea's leaders are cornered. If their regime collapses, they will lose not only their prosperity, privilege and power, but also their freedom - and in some cases their lives. Justice can be swift for tyrants of failed states. But offer them an amnesty, and the whole picture changes. - Andrei Lankov (May 25, '05)

US fights Iraq fire with street fighters
The US military is having to adapt its tactics to fight a grassroots Iraqi resistance that has organized itself into street-level militias across the country. Instead of giving Baghdad a conventional army, the US is fighting fire with fire by creating its own street-fighting militias. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (May 24, '05)

The metrics of losing
The next time the word "metrics" is publicly kicked about to prove the US's "success" in Iraq, one can safely assume that further problems (and yet more frustration) have arisen. - Tom Engelhardt (May 24, '05)

US marches toward sanctions on Iran
Given the intractable positions on all sides, the next step in the Iranian nuclear saga is likely to be a move for United Nations sanctions against Tehran, even though this gambit is likely to fail. What such dim prospects then lead to is the military option. Maybe this is the US plan. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May 23, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
The US's gift to al-Qaeda
Al-Qaeda has recently managed to capitalize on major blunders in Washington's "war on terror", strengthening the anti-US impulse among global, moderate Muslims and winning legitimacy from leading Islamic scholars. Pepe Escobar explains how it happened. (May 20, '05)

Answering the call to jihad
The eagerness of North Africans to answer the call to jihad is hardly surprising in a region where anti-US sentiment has increased since the invasion of Iraq. European jihadis of North African origin are also joining the fray. - Ilhem Rachidi (May 20, '05)

An Iraq correspondent in two worlds
"Trying to live life here with some of my heart and most of my mind in Iraq, which is endlessly in flames, has felt distinctly schizophrenic," writes reporter Dahr Jamail, who covered the occupation of Iraq before returning to the US - for him, a strange land filled with people who "truly have no idea what's happening". (May 20, '05)

Pyongyang reveals its hand
North Korea will keep the nuclear weapons it already claims to possess, but is prepared to rule out the enlargement of its arsenal by negotiating a freeze - provided that the US gives up any hint of regime change. And this is straight from the horse's mouth. - Selig Harrison (May 20, '05)

Armageddon: Bringing it on
President George W Bush believes Armageddon is at hand. So too does al-Qaeda, whose underlying aim is to stoke the fires of a civilizational battle leading to the final, decisive battle at Har Megiddo in Israel. Reports of US interrogators desecrating the Koran - whether true or false - only add to al-Qaeda's appeal. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (May 19, '05)

Japan bets on Middle East peace
By pledging US$100 million in new aid to Palestine, Japan has upped the ante in its drive to play a key role in the Middle East peace process. But Israeli skepticism of outside assistance is likely to hinder Tokyo's efforts, while some analysts say the Jewish state's commitments to the Palestinian people are a fraud anyway. - J Sean Curtin (May 18, '05)

Blame game continues over Myanmar blasts
With accusations flying over the May 7 bombings in Myanmar, Thailand, which maintains lucrative business relations with the military-ruled state, is eager to prove it does not harbor "CIA-trained" terrorists. - Richard S Ehrlich (May 18, '05)

COMMENTARY
Just who is the 'son of a bitch'?
The Pentagon refers to a "son of a bitch" in connection with the Koran-in-the-toilet story. People died in riots in Afghanistan because of the false information in that report. Just as they are dying in Iraq, because of false information linking the Saddam regime to weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, from a different son of a bitch. - Jim Lobe (May 17, '05)

COMMENTARY
Iran nuclear talks: It's time to shut up
The Paris Agreement between Iran and Europe on Tehran's nuclear program is not quite dead, but it's only a short step from a coffin wrapped in virulent political rhetoric. Europe is doing everything possible to undermine it, and moreover, is trumping it with newer developments sought by the US. The talks are doing more harm than good, and it's time to stop the rot. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May 17, '05)

The secret way to war
The recently published British "smoking gun" memo offers irrefutable proof of the way in which the Bush administration made its decision to invade Iraq - without significant consultation, reasonable intelligence, or any desire to explore ways to avoid it. War had been decided on long before fighting began; the problem for the US was to give it a "political context". - Mark Danner (May 16, '05)

 MIDDLE EAST: A joint Iraqi-United Nations household survey pinpoints problems relating to health, employment, housing, public services, education, income and war-related deaths since the occupation of the country. (May 16, '05)

Back on the trail of Osama bin Laden
Osama bin Laden is back on the radar screens of intelligence agencies, which believe they have fresh information that will lead them to the al-Qaeda head in Pakistan's tribal areas, possibly "soon". While this is excellent news for the US, Pakistan would be in a fix, according to the Pakistani overseer of interrogations of al-Qaeda suspects, who spoke to Syed Saleem Shahzad. (May 13, '05)

Afghan violence linked to Hizbut Tehrir
Country-wide protests in Afghanistan against President Hamid Karzai and the US are spreading, led by students and instigated by the Islamic group Hizbut Tehrir. This will come as a surprise to US intelligence. - B Raman (May 13, '05)

The Bush in the bubble
This figure we think of, and the media insistently reports on, as an individual is a kind of composite being, a recombinant man, who travels the planet and lives "George W Bush's" life not just in a bubble of delusion but as a kind of bubble of delusion. - Tom Engelhardt (May 13, '05)

In Iraq's insurgency, no rules, just death
How do you fight those who follow no rules, except their willingness to die for their cause? No one on the US side seems to have an answer. One tactic the US has come up with is to use Shi'ite forces against Sunni insurgents: an extremely dangerous attempt to gain short-term security at the risk of civil war. The insurgents might be right if they saw this as a desperate move. - Ehsan Ahrari (May 12, '05)

From Fallujah to Qaim
US troops are engaged in their biggest offensive since last year's attack on Fallujah as they take on insurgent strongholds in west-central Iraq. The insurgents are better trained and equipped than in previous engagements, raising questions about progress in the two-year effort to quell the insurgency. (May 12, '05)

The 'Talibanization' of Central Asia
Similar to the mid-1990s, when the Taliban seemed a viable alternative to mujahideen misrule in Afghanistan, it is tempting to view political Islamist group Hizbut Tehrir as a counterpoint to Central Asia's political elites. But we all know how the Taliban experience went horribly wrong. - M K Bhadrakumar (May 11, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
From Baghdad to Brasilia
South America is avidly cultivating much stronger ties with China, Russia and the Arab world, as seen in this week's Arab-South American summit in Brazil. The emerging axis is non-aligned, and it's swimming in oil. Washington is watching closely. - Pepe Escobar (May 11, '05)

Closing in on India's most wanted
The saga of India's most wanted man, Dawood Ibrahim, has taken yet another turn, with the UN naming the gangster on its wanted list of individuals having links to al-Qaeda. Over time, the underworld don has been pitchforked into the political tussle between Pakistan and India, with India questioning Pakistan's efforts to rein him in. - Siddharth Srivastava (May 11, '05)

The US media and Iran's nuclear threat
Iran's alleged nuclear threat is a hot topic in the US, and, echoing the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction debacle, the mainstream media there have thrown balance out of the window, trading objective news for political favor from the Bush administration as it demonizes Iran. - Kaveh Afrasiabi (May 10, '05)

Mr Osama, are you OK?


(May 10, '05)

Taliban radio back on air
Despite being run by a bunch of "ignorant mullahs", Sharia Zhagh - the name used for Radio Afghanistan during the Taliban's rule - reached Kandahar residents last month, and the
administration is at a loss to stop it. It may be, though, that this suits the US just fine. (May 10, '05)

Al-Qaeda gloves are off in Pakistan
A spate of attacks last year in Pakistan against key people and strategic interests forced President General Pevez Musharraf to negotiate a truce with al-Qaeda, which has made deep inroads among the country's jihadis. With the arrest of al-Qaeda operative Abu Faraj al-Libbi, the deal is in tatters. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (May 9, '05)

Musharraf in the firing line
The secretive Hizbut Tehrir has made inroads into Pakistan's military. The organization is unequivocal - President General Pervez Musharraf must go, and a caliphate must come. - B Raman (May 9, '05)

No room for political Islam in Syria
Contrary to Western speculation, should regime change take place in Syria, the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood would not replace the Ba'athists, as the majority of Syrians advocate a secular state. Regardless, Damascus is feeling Washington's heat. - Sami Moubayed (May 9, '05)

Al-Qaeda witch-hunt in Pakistan's army
Following his apprehension in Pakistan, al-Qaeda's Abu Faraj al-Libbi will soon be placed in the hands of US interrogators, who will be particularly keen to grill him on his connections with al-Qaeda's North African and British cells. But it's the Pakistan army that will be shaking in its boots. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (May 6, '05)

PART 9: Sovereignty, democracy and militarism
If the German post-war model is applied to Iraq, there may never be a formal end to the Iraq war. And because there is no formal peace treaty between Germany and the the US-led Allies, German sovereignty is compromised. The legitimacy of the Berlin government is an open question and can be exploited in a future national crisis. - Henry C K Liu (May 6, '05)

Meet Mr al-Qaeda Number 3 (2003) His arrest is being trumpeted by Pakistani and US authorities as a major blow to al-Qaeda. But they are way behind the curve. Abu Faraj al-Libbi may have been important in 2003 when he allegedly tried to assassinate President General Pervez Musharraf. Since then, he has been yesterday's man. Al-Qaeda has moved on, and they aren't playing numbers games - Syed Saleem Shahzad The al-Qaeda striptease continues Abu Faraj al-Libbi is al-Qaeda all right, variously touted as Number 3 in the hierarchy, or Osama bin Laden's personal assistant. The possibility is, though, his arrest could turn out to be yet one more garment shed in a continuing striptease. - B Raman (May 5, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
Pentagon cut and paste
The Pentagon is red in the face after a simple cut and paste job gave the world access to a heavily censored report on the killing of Italian secret agent Nicola Calipari. Meanwhile, despite undergoing sanitation of its own, Italy's report on the incident reveals some damning evidence at odds with much of the Pentagon's spin. - Pepe Escobar (May 4, '05)

Taliban profit from US largesse
The US and Pakistan had been doing a pretty good job of keeping the Taliban quiet. No longer. Resistance activity is rising, and the US wants Islamabad to do something about it, even though the resurgence is the direct result of misguided US policies: bribery does not work. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (May 4, '05)

Commentary                    by Ehsan Ahrari Long shadows of the Shi'ite tragedy If Iraq's new government falters, the big winners will be the insurgents, and the tragedy will be the latest in the region's history of long shadows falling on the Shi'ites. But the power wrestlers don't get it. - Ehsan Ahrari (May 4, '05)

When terrorism numbers don't add up
Despite major changes to the format of US reports regarding the state of international terrorism, repeated mistakes and fudged statistics - attempting to show the US's counterterrorism policy is producing positive results - still fail to read the writing on the wall. - B Raman (May 4, '05)

Commentary                    by Ehsan Ahrari A different type of regime change in Syria  George W Bush will go down in history as the inventor of the regime-change policy option. He's done it twice by force of arms, and now Syria is in his sights. This time he shouldn't need his military, though. (May 2, '05)

April 2005