August 2005 


How the US got its neoliberal way in Iraq
The United States' hands-on and far from impartial involvement in the drafting of Iraq's constitution has ensured that the document is friendly to big, international business. When Iraqis vote on the draft in October, essentially they will be deciding whether to control their oil riches or hand them over to foreign oil companies. - Herbert Docena (Aug 31, '05)

Crisis plays into Muqtada's hands
The future of Iraq will largely be determined by the Sunni Arab reaction to the referendum on October 15. There are several scenarios that could quickly lead to civil war or to the breakup of Iraq along sectarian lines. In all instances, Shi'ite leader Muqtada al-Sadr is a decisive factor. (Aug 31, '05)

COMMENTARY
Democracy without choice
If democracy is the promotion of popular choices, shouldn't the people of each country make a choice about the modalities of what their version of democracy should contain? The American answer to this appears to be a resounding "no", as long as those choices include assigning primacy to Islam in Iraq. - Ehsan Ahrari (Aug 31, '05)

WAITING FOR THE MAHDI, Part 1 sistani.qom: In the wired heart of Shi'ism The issue of supremacy among top Shi'ite religious leaders has profound implications for Iran and Iraq. Is it the reclusive but Internet-savvy Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf in Iraq, who forced the American superpower to bow to his wishes? Or is it the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? The Shi'ite communications center in Iran's holy city, Qom, provides some clues. - Pepe Escobar (Aug 30, '05)  Part 2: A vision or a waking dream?

Kurds first, Iraq second
To visit Kurdish areas in northern Iraq is to leave behind the turmoil and chaos of other parts of the country, almost to enter another nation. Which is exactly how the majority of Kurds want it - the further they can distance themselves from Baghdad, politically and socially, the better. - Bashdar Ismaeel (Aug 30, '05)

SPENGLER
Lessons for Islam from Quebec
Falling fertility rates go hand in hand with rising nationalism, as they did in Quebec in the 60s and 70s. As with Quebecois nationalism, Islamism welled up from a profound and well-placed sense of fragility, and likewise, its days are numbered. (Aug 29, '05)

India reaches out to Afghanistan
It's been almost three decades since an Indian leader visited Afghanistan. Despite concerns for his safety, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made a two-day visit, as much to keep a check on Pakistan's influence in the region as to encourage Afghanistan's reconstruction. - Siddharth Srivastava (Aug 29, '05)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Bush, Sheehan and how words die
A word analysis of a recent speech by President George W Bush set against an analysis of articles by Cindy Sheehan shows how the president's men, wizards of repetition for the past four years, may have repeated themselves once too often, which goes some way to explaining Bush's plunging popularity. - Tom Engelhardt (Aug 29, '05)

Iran thrives on neo-con dream
Iran's geostrategic position could hardly be better. The Taliban are gone, as is Saddam Hussein in Iraq where the emergence of the Shi'ites will see Tehran's influence grow further. And it's all thanks to the neo-conservative masterminds in Washington. - Jim Lobe (Aug 26, '05)

Terror puts Jordan on the map
The three rockets fired at a US Navy ship in the Jordanian port of Aqaba woefully missed their target. But they scored a direct hit in highlighting the growing ties between Jordan and the insurgency in Iraq, and in illustrating that terrorism is gaining ground in traditionally peaceful and secure countries. - Sami Moubayed (Aug 26, '05)

Democrats fumble Iraq policy
While President George W Bush and the Republicans take the heat over Iraq, the Democrats, too, are beginning to squirm. They are deeply divided about their position on a conflict that most of them privately describe as a major foreign policy disaster. - Jim Lobe (Aug 25, '05)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA Iraq through the crazy mirror In the past weeks in the US it's been like watching a nation blinking and slowly emerging from a state of denial: a genuine debate has begun about being in Iraq, about the Bush administration lies that got the country there and about how in the world to get out. - Tom Engelhardt (Aug 24, '05) Why Casey Sheehan was killed Cindy Sheehan wants to know why her son had to die in combat. President George W Bush is not giving her answers. Someone who was in Baghdad's Sadr City the day that Casey Sheehan died can, however, respond. (Aug 24, '05)

The fuel behind Iran's nuclear drive
Arguments over the motives behind Iran's nuclear program suggest the country has no need to use that source for energy due to its huge oil and gas reserves. However, history and the numbers may not support such an argument. - David Isenberg (Aug 23 '05)

Sunnis look beyond the draft
Having failed to meet another deadline to finalize an Iraqi constitution, Shi'ite and Kurd drafters might be forced to railroad a version through parliament against the objections of their Sunni colleagues. This would play right into Sunni hands. (Aug 23 '05)

SPENGLER
The demographics of radical Islam
The Muslim birthrate is the second highest in the world but it's falling faster than that of any other culture. Thus, the Islamists have 30 years to establish a global theocracy before the pool of unemployed Arabs - expected to reach 25 million by 2010 - becomes too small to win a war. (Aug 22, '05)

More power to the Sunnis
The Shi'ites, the Kurds and their interlocutor, the United States, are riding the tiger of democracy in Iraq. But it is the weakest group of post-Saddam Iraq - the Sunnis - who have the wherewithal, and the will, to push their agenda. And it's an agenda that has little to do with democracy. - Ehsan Ahrari (Aug 22, '05)

US: A dose of realism
At the very least there's a new appreciation for diplomacy in the Bush administration, if not an understanding that Washington is, after all, not immune from traditional balance of power politics and must take the interests of other powers into account. But this is not to say that the war drums have been discarded. - Jim Lobe (Aug 22, '05)

Iraq at the gates of hell
The joke in Iraq before the invasion was that Iraqis wanted the gates of hell to be opened so they could get out. Now they are in another kind of hell: every day the violence continues there are countless new scores to be settled, new hatreds born, and a greater likelihood the country will erupt in ferocious civil war. And whether the US stays or goes, it will be blamed. - Ashraf Fahim (Aug 19, '05)

Now it's political
Cindy Sheehan has served to focus antiwar sentiment in the US, so much so that Iraq is becoming a major political problem for the Republicans - and the Democrats too. President Bush, meanwhile, goes on with his life, and his holiday. - Jim Lobe (Aug 19, '05)

Riyadh's new envoy just the US ticket
With intimate knowledge of the intelligence world going back to the Soviet-Afghan war, the CIA and Osama bin Laden, Saudi Arabia's new ambassador to the US, Prince Turki al-Faisal, is eminently qualified to promote policies which can harmonize Saudi and American interests. (Aug 18, '05)

Iraq seeks justice in Sharia
All this, merely to exchange a secular dictatorship for an Islamic one? The major dilemma facing Iraq today is whether it will become the democracy of President George W Bush, or the theocracy of Shi'ite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. - Sami Moubayed (Aug 18, '05)

Meet President George W Ahmadinejad
Though they are poles apart in their views of the world, the American and Iranian presidents hail from the same side of the neo-conservative political spectrum. While there is no love lost between them, these two unlikely peacemakers could bring their nations closer together - something moderates have failed to do. (Aug 16, '05)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Cindy, Don and George
Talk about asymmetric warfare: one woman against the massed and proven might of the George W Bush political machine. But the president, who prides himself on not flinching, giving ground or ever saying he's sorry, has met a match in Cindy Sheehan, a lady who may help turn a set of unhappy public opinion polls into a full-scale antiwar movement. - Tom Engelhardt (Aug 15, '05)

Three-way pull in Iraq
If Iraq is divided into northern and southern autonomous regions, which also contain almost all of its oil reserves, the Sunnis are left with the impoverished central province. That's why they have dragged their feet over the country's draft constitution. Yet they could still be the big losers. - Ehsan Ahrari (Aug 15, '05)

Iran buys some time On the international front, Iran has bought some time in the escalating crisis over its nuclear program, receiving only a mild admonishment from the International Atomic Energy Agency for resuming fuel-processing activities. At home, new President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has also won some time. - Safa Haeri (Aug 12, '05) COMMENTARY Myth of the EU olive branch EU leaders have presented a proposal to Iran that seeks to make permanent a temporary measure on its nuclear program, without one iota of international law behind it. Only a wholesale change of attitude toward Iran will break the stalemate. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Aug 12, '05)

America's new bogeyman
The US cannot leave Iraq without defeating the insurgents, but the more the US military clamps down, the stronger they seem to get. Maybe President George W Bush should simply declare victory and bring the troops home. - Ehsan Ahrari (Aug 11, '05)

Rumsfeld takes a shot at Iran
US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has added his voice to complaints that Iran is taking actions that undermine Iraqi security, saying that Iranian arms are being smuggled to insurgents in Iraq. Tehran has laughed off the accusations. (Aug 11, '05)

The ironies of conquest (Aug 10, '05) The Iraqi resistance, one of the least expected and most powerful social movements of recent times, can lay claim to few positive results, with the country progressively reduced to an ungovernable jungle of violence, disease and hunger. But maybe the insurgents' real achievement lies in what didn't happen: despite the desires of the Bush administration, Iran remains uninvaded. This does not mean that the threat of invasion has passed - the US is back to a face-off with a country that at least has an actual nuclear program, if not (unlike North Korea) a weapon to go with it. The Iranian nightmare - Michael Schwartz Nuclear face-off - Tom Engelhardt

In defense of an Islamic identity
The Islamic organization Hizb ut-Tahrir, which is banned in most of Central Asia, from where it draws its main support, also has a strong presence in Britain. There too, it is facing proscription, even though it advocates non-violence. A Hizb ut-Tahrir spokesman explains the group's position to Mahan Abedin. (Aug 10, '05)

Saudis search for stability
Oil prices reach record highs after an unspecified threat causes the US to shut its embassy in Saudi Arabia. Such is the sensitivity of the markets to the world's biggest exporter of crude. Political uncertainty, too, spooks traders. This is the reality that newly enthroned King Abdullah faces, and why his succession is so important. (Aug 10, '05)

Spreading the Taliban word
The Taliban may have been chased from power in Afghanistan, but, as their insurgency grows, they have become bolder in the use of media, including radio, and even a highly accessible spokesman. Their strategy is to portray themselves as a legitimate opposition, not a terrorist group. (Aug 10, '05)

Assembly faces 18 difficult steps
Representatives of Iraq's Shi'ites, Sunnis and Kurds still have 18 points to resolve before they can agree on a new constitution and set in motion a process that will facilitate a US withdrawal. The way things stand, with the Kurds unbending, departure date is a very long way off. - Sami Moubayed (Aug 9, '05)

Weapons of self-destruction
Iraq is like a nuclear weapon that is already fully armed, and the countdown to detonation begins when parliament receives word on the (failed) state of the draft constitution. Iraq, as a nation, cannot survive the coming detonation. - W Joseph Stroupe (Aug 9, '05)

Wanted: Aspiring martyrs
All that's needed are two photos, an ID and application to become a member of Lovers of Martyrdom Garrison. All training is provided and there's a choice of targets if a candidate is selected as a full-fledged suicide bomber. This unusual recruiting campaign sends a strong message to potential invaders. - Sudha Ramachandran (Aug 8, '05)

COMMENTARY
Chaos under heaven
President George W Bush and his people suddenly, and quite atypically, broke ranks over a new definition for the "war on terror". Other strange things are happening to Bush administration policies, large and small - from "withdrawal" plans for Iraq to tightened security against terrorists masquerading as birdwatchers. - Tom Engelhardt (Aug 8, '05)

Iraq: Basic questions about bases
The Bush administration talks freely of its plans to reduce its military footprint in Iraq next year. But when it comes to the issue of permanent bases in the country, it has turned rhetorical cartwheels to avoid the question of a long-term presence, even though clarity is crucial in determining the longevity of the insurgency. - Ashraf Fahim (Aug 5, '05)

SPEAKING FREELY
It's all about Iraq
In the latest al-Qaeda video, Ayman al-Zawahiri reinforces the link between Iraq and the London bombings. Yet the UK government continues to deny such a link, heightening the threat of large-scale strikes against Britain. - Richard M Bennett (Aug 5, '05)

Islam and the roots of terror: The crucial debate (Aug 4, '05) Some blame the US occupation of Iraq; some point to the double standards of the West in serving its own interests in the Muslim world. On the other side of the fence, some say that terrorism derives from the very fabric of Islamic culture and history. Debate over the roots of Islamist terrorism rages, as does argument about what to do about it. Perhaps the key lies in India where, despite its huge Muslim population, links to international terrorism are conspicuous by their absence. Asia Times Online presents four contrasting points of view, from Muslims and non-Muslims:  Beyond condemnation - Louay Safi  Roots reach into history - Harout H Semerdjian  Blaming mosques and madrassas - Ramzy Baroud  India's Muslims choose politics - Siddharth Srivastava

Blame it on Syria
The US has reached a seven-point plan with Iraqi leaders to address common efforts "toward building a democratic, secure Iraq". In outlining the accord, new US ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad also took a swipe at Syria, blaming it for adding to Iraq's woes. (Aug 3, '05)

Mind games over Iraq
About 30% of US troops returning from Iraq have developed stress-related mental health problems a few months after coming home. But even though those returning are closely monitored, there is not sufficient money - or consensus - to tackle the problems. - David Isenberg (Aug 3, '05)

 A young man's death

Iran's new president handed nuclear crisis
Iran's incoming president, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, will have to hit the ground running when he takes over on Wednesday. Tehran's decision to resume uranium-enrichment activities puts him on a collision course with the European Union, as well as with the hardliners who pull Iran's policy strings and who have ensured that Ahmadinejad's hot seat is very hot indeed. - Safa Haeri (Aug 1, '05)

US strikes out in Uzbekistan
The US has put on a brave face over Uzbekistan's decision to phase out a US military base in the country. But the move, which will be welcomed in Russia and China, will come at a cost. - Ramtanu Maitra (Aug 1, '05)