September 2005 

Britain, Iran playing with Shi'ite fire
Arab Sunni insurgents, al-Qaeda, Arab regimes and the Anglo-American coalition tend to paint Iraqi Shi'ites as a poor and helpless people with an intense historical inferiority complex. This is a gross underestimation: the Shi'ites have the potential to create more havoc than Sunni guerrillas. The British and Iranian spy shenanigans in the south may well provide the spark. - Mahan Abedin (Sep 30, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
Who's in charge, Qom or Najaf?
The renaissance of the holy Iraqi city of Najaf - home of the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani - is problematic. If the center of gravity of Shi'ism goes back from Qom in Iran to where it was before - in Iraq - Iran's influence will be tremendously reduced. - Pepe Escobar (Sep 30, '05)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Cindy, Katrina and Bush's Monica
Cindy Sheehan has a lot to say, about her son, her nascent antiwar movement, withdrawal from Iraq, and of course about President George W Bush, whom she believes is imploding. She opens up to Tom Engelhardt. (Sep 30, '05)

The Syrians who cried wolf
Syria has for so long and so often claimed that it has a problem with Islamic fundamentalists in the country that its cries are now largely ignored, and even interpreted as a smokescreen for a hidden political agenda. With the conviction of Syrian Imad Yarkas in connection with September 11, Damascus now hopes the world will listen. - Sami Moubayed (Sep 29, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
The myth of the Shi'ite crescent
Shi'ites believe that the nation-state is just a stage on the road to the final triumph of Shi'ism. But to go beyond this stage to establish a vast Shi'ite crescent spanning the Middle East, it's necessary to reinforce the nation-state and its Shi'ite sanctuary, which happens to be Iran. Not all Shi'ites are in a position, or are willing, to help realize this goal. - Pepe Escobar (Sep 29, '05)

Stuffing Iraq's ballot boxes
It appears likely that three Sunni-dominated provinces will kill the proposed Iraqi constitution - that's if the October 15 referendum is conducted fairly. One way such a defeat could be averted is by massive vote fraud in the key province of Nineveh. It wouldn't be the first time such funny business has occurred there. (Sep 29, '05)

Fear and loathing in the Thai south
The village of Tanyon Limo in Thailand's far south encapsulates the economic neglect and cultural discrimination the region has endured for decades from policymakers in Bangkok. Life got much worse last week, however, when the Malay- Muslim villagers were caught up in a rising tide of inter-ethnic bloodshed, and the soldiers arrived in force. (Sep 28, '05)

Controlling N Korea and Iran
The United States and European Union-3 would rather subjugate North Korea and Iran than reform the International Atomic Energy Agency to better control nuclearization while allowing countries sovereignty over civilian nuclear programs. That is a recipe for trouble. - Jephraim P Gundzik  (Sep 27 '05)

Trashed: Some myths about Iraq
Foreign fighters dominate the insurgency in Iraq ("It's not the Iraqis themselves who object to the US-led occupation"); more foreign terrorists are flocking to Iraq (making Iraq "a major front in the war on terror"). If this sounds familiar, it's because it is. And it's also nonsense, according to a new study. -Sudha Ramachandran (Sep 26, '05)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
'No Iraqis left me on a roof to die'
In the US's first major anti-war protest over Iraq at the weekend, the most common statement from the participants, from grandfathers and grandmothers to a 12-year-old boy, was: "This is my first demonstration." In a media world where one seldom hears the voices of Americans directly, Tom Engelhardt was all ears. (Sep 26, '05)

Iraq: Why immediate pullout makes sense
The fallacy in all gradual withdrawal or drawdown plans for Iraq is the belief that the US military is part of the solution (a bulwark, say, against civil war), rather than part of the problem. - Michael Schwartz (Sep 26, '05)

The US and that man Muqtada
While many accuse the Kurds of triggering discord by insisting on an autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, the real problem lies with the Iraqi Shi'ites of the south, where one faction demands an autonomous state and the other does not. The latter position is championed by Muqtada al-Sadr, the US's premier bete noire, whom Washington will have to engage if it is to turn the tide of rising civil war. - Sami Moubayed (Sep 23, '05)

Southern discomfort
Britain's heavy-handed response to the arrest of two of its soldiers in Basra in southern Iraq is a warning sign that all is not well in the Shi'ite stronghold where militias call the shots. Britain is, in fact, losing control. (Sep 23, '05)

Karzai grabs a tiger by the tail
President Hamid Karzai's extraordinary outburst over the US military presence in Afghanistan has more to do with ensuring his own political survival than with taking his Washington mentors to task. Yet in this risky power play, Karzai could well have laid the foundation for his own demise. - M K Bhadrakumar (Sep 22, '05)

The failed mission to capture Iraqi oil A striking irony: the American military occupation of Iraq has driven Iraqi oil further out of reach of the market, at a time when it was especially needed. The deepening Iraqi quagmire has demonstrated that the use of military force to secure resources overseas can have the opposite effect. - Michael T Klare (Sep 21, '05) COMMENTARY Blood for no oil It's all very well to occupy a country, set up your "enduring camps", and imagine yourself controlling the key energy spigots of the globe, but doing so is another matter, and the cost can be counted in blood. - Tom Engelhardt (Sep 21, '05)

Coalition down but not out
The "Project for the New American Century" gained notoriety when its and President Bush's views converged on how to conduct his new "war on terror". Then the coalition began to unravel. But don't count the PNAC out; there is still possible regime change ahead for Iran and Syria. - Jim Lobe (Sep 21, '05)

The opposition face of Afghanistan
Yunus Qanooni has been around the political (and military) block as many times as anyone in Afghanistan over the past three decades. In his latest incarnation, the anti-government ethnic Tajik leader is vying for a seat in the new parliament. He tells Syed Saleem Shahzad what to expect. (Sep 21, '05)

Bangladesh: Mixing aid with terror
At least 10 NGOs are funding extremist groups in Bangladesh. The Islamist extremists also are putting down roots in all sorts of other supposedly legitimate enterprises. Still, investigators are only seeing the tip of the jihadi funding iceberg. - Sudha Ramachandran (Sep 21, '05)

US-Pakistan: An elaborate pas de deux Pakistan's primary role in its relationship with the US is to ferret out the Taliban and al-Qaeda. In this complex dance, Islamabad is often allowed to steal the limelight, even if it means Washington turning a blind eye to such weighty matters as nuclear proliferation and radical students. - Ramtanu Maitra (Sep 20, '05) Janus-faced counter-terrorism While Pakistan has arrested and handed over to the US many senior al-Qaeda leaders, not a single senior Taliban commander has been caught. (Sep 20, '05)

North Korea agrees to give up nukes
North Korea, unpredictable at best and known for breaking commitments at worst, has once again sprung a surprise and agreed to give up its nuclear weapons programs and return to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The cat-and-mouse game will resume in November, when the details of the six-party accord will be thrashed out. - Gerard Young (Sep 19, '05)

Iran's case in the balance
Even as the UN's nuclear watchdog ponders whether to send Iran to the Security Council over its nuclear program, Tehran insists that it will not bow to "bullying" and will carry on with its uranium conversion activities come what may. - Safa Haeri (Sep 19, '05)

Kurds dream of real power
Iraqi Kurds are starting to attain the kind of power for which they and their brothers throughout the Middle East have long yearned. It is something for other Kurds to aim at; the problem is that it took an American invasion to make it happen, a stroke of luck that may not be repeated. - Sami Moubayed (Sep 19, '05)

Afghanistan jumps first hurdle
Voters in Afghanistan have had their day at the polls, but they will have to wait several weeks before the official results are known. Many people, though, have already made up their minds over how the new parliament will look. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Sep 19, '05)

Wheeling and dealing over Iran
With matters between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency coming to a head - referral of the issue of Tehran's nuclear program to the UN Security Council is possible - a heavyweight lobby group spanning the Atlantic has stepped in: it's time to make a deal. - Jim Lobe (Sep 16, '05)

Thai refugees embarrass Bangkok
For decades Thailand has opened its doors to refugees from a number of neighboring countries. Now, with the flight to Malaysia of 131 of its citizens of Muslim-Malay ethnic origin, the roles are reversed, and the Thai government is not happy. (Sep 16, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
Civil war: For Iraqis, it's now official
Undeclared civil war in Iraq had been raging for months. Then, while US and Iraqi troops were chasing shadows in the town of Tal Afar, Sunni jihadis mounted deadly revenge attacks in Baghdad to coincide with the declaration by al-Qaeda's Musab al-Zarqawi of all-out war against Shi'ites. - Pepe Escobar (Sep 15, '05)

For Syria, regime change by other means
The US has made it patently clear that it will not tolerate Syria's  tacit support of the Iraqi resistance. Regime change is being actively pursued, and  the lessons learned from Iraq are proving useful. Lesson One: Use, don't abuse, the UN. - Ehsan Ahrari (Sep 15, '05)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The reconstruction of New Oraq
In this small, globalized world, Iraq and New Orleans are morphing into a single entity, New Oraq, to be devoured by the same limited set of corporations, let loose and overseen by the same small set of Bush administration officials. In Iraq, the money has gone and "reconstruction" is petering out. Now it's time to cash in on Katrina. - Tom Engelhardt and Nick Turse (Sep 14, '05)

COMMENTARY
Strategic thinking and sausage-making
The September 11 attacks gave Pentagon promoters of asymmetric warfare a temporary edge. But conventional warfare is now also capturing attention and resources (think "China"). All in all, choosing the right mix is a bit like sausage-making for the Pentagon as it ponders its Quadrennial Defense Review. - Ehsan Ahrari (Sep 14, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
Travels in Ahmadinejadland
He is honest, he is a simple man, he looks after the poor, and he is a regular visitor to the mosque. Without fail, these are the attributes that the mass of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's supporters in the lower-working class areas of Tehran pinpoint. In other, more affluent areas, praise is harder to find. - Pepe Escobar (Sep 14, '05)

Building a case, any case, against Iran
They're at it again. From the British think tank that produced what proved to be a highly influential - and wrong - assessment of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, comes a new report claiming that Iran could build a nuclear bomb within five years. But the International Institute for Strategic Studies' "strategic dossier" is full of "ifs" and "buts", all of which ignore the geopolitical realities facing Tehran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep 13, '05)

ATol COMMENT
Uranium on his cranium
One leading the charge of the neo-con brigade on Iran is Gary Schmitt, of the Project for the New American Century. The International Institute for Strategic Studies' dossier backs up his claims about Iran's nuclear bomb potential, but at the same time nukes his logic. (Sep 13, '05)

The Pentagon's wish: 'Preemptive' nukes
The Bush administration wants the preemptive use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states as an integral part of its global military strategy, even though such a strategy, rather than deter potential adversaries from pursuing nuclear weapons, could have the opposite effect. - Jim Lobe (Sep 13, '05)

SPENGLER
Demographics and Iran's imperial design
Between 2005 and 2050, the shift from workers to pensioners will comprise 21% of Iranians. Tehran's ultra-Islamist government has no hope of ameliorating this impending crisis through productivity growth. Instead, it proposes totalitarian methods at home and imperial expansion as a solution. (Sep 12, '05)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The mosquito and the hammer
"When Bush turned to his tool bag to respond to the mosquito of Osama bin Laden, the only tool he had in it was a hammer, so he brought it down on Afghanistan and destroyed it; then he brought it down on Iraq and destroyed it, missing the mosquito." Ironically, though, author and columnist James Carroll tells Tom Engelhardt, the US military is being destroyed as well. (Sep 12, '05)

The Taliban's battle over the ballot
The Taliban-led resistance is preparing for Afghanistan's ground-breaking national elections this month by increasing the scope and tempo of its attacks. Flush with money from the drug trade, the Taliban are sourcing increasingly sophisticated weapons from the black market in Iraq for attacks on both foreign troops and election candidates. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Sep 9, '05)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The outer limits of empire
"I don't think there's any question that the United States is going to have to get out of Iraq. The only questions are: How long will it take? How many more people will die? And how will it be done?" Howard Zinn, author and long-time antiwar proponent, does not mince his words, as Tom Engelhardt discovers. (Sep 9, '05)

War on Bush's anti-terror tactics
President George W Bush's management of his "war on terror", which he declared in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks four years ago, is under fire from all sides: terrorism is a tactic, not an enemy, and a new approach is called for. - Jim Lobe (Sep 9, '05)

Shadowy Shi'ite supremacist group emerges
Accusations that they belong to a once-banned Shi'ite supremacist group called the Hojjatieh hound several of the conservatives in Iran's new cabinet, and even President Mahmud Ahmadinejad. The Hojjatieh's reappearance coincides with a Shi'ite resurgence across the region and a new era of conservative factional infighting in Tehran, with far-reaching implications for both. (Sep 8, '05)

AL-QAEDA AND THE HOUSE OF SAUD
Eternal enemies or secret bedfellows?
Al-Saud, despite its effort to hunt down those who directly threaten its own rule, is less serious about tackling the deeper issues related to the funding of and ideological legitimization of al-Qaeda in the kingdom. By remaining complicit with the regime, Washington is essentially allowing the kingdom to become a recruiting ground for al-Qaeda. - John R Bradley (Sep 7, '05)

Showdown as Iran refuses to
jump another nuke hoop (Sep 7, '05)
Under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has every right to process uranium into reactor fuel. But what's OK for other countries is forbidden to Iran, according to the US and the EU's negotiating trio. For Iran, the bar keeps being raised, and until the weekend it had jumped every time. Now the stage is set for a showdown following the latest - rejected - demands by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief and the EU. On September 19, the IAEA decides whether to refer Iran to the UN Security Council, where it faces the possibility of sanctions, over what amounts to no more than a failure to continue implementing "legally-non-binding" measures.

 ElBaradei's report deconstructed
Under US pressure, the IAEA chief is making new demands that go far beyond the Non-Proliferation Treaty. An incensed Tehran may now simply abrogate the treaty and go underground, writes Kaveh Afrasiabi.

 Iran knocks Europe out
Tehran has called the EU's bluff, and international opinion faces a split. - Pepe Escobar

Opium gold unites US friends and foes
It's called the "golden route" and it's pure gold to the US's arch-foes, the Taliban, as well as to Washington's Afghan friends. Along this route, aided and abetted by officials in Pakistan, the US's major ally in the region, travels a large proportion of the world's supply of opium, on it's way from Afghanistan to the West, via Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Sep 2, '05)

How Southeast Asia is taming terror
With two secession conflicts close to being resolved in Indonesia and the Philippines, the recruiting capabilities of terrorist organizations are diminished as the "oppression" of regional Muslim populations is perceived as being lifted. By addressing the political aspirations of local groups, the bathwater in which terrorists float is drained. Thailand, take note. - Jonathan Ross Harrington (Sep 1, '05)