October 2005 

Iran, Israel: The good, the bad and the ugly
Calculated or not (to protect Syria?), Iran is undermining itself in the battle for world public opinion with respect to its right to nuclear technology, by making official statements that kindle the images of another Holocaust. But this is only one side of the complex cultural orientation of Iran's foreign policy: there is still room to maneuver. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 28, '05)

COMMENTARY
Rolling back Syria
The bloody hands behind Rafik Hariri's murder are, so it seems, the least relevant detail as far as Israel and the Bush administration are concerned. The death of the "father of Lebanon" is more of an opportunity to further contain and extract concessions from Damascus, especially as far as Israel's interests are concerned. - Ramzy Baroud (Oct 28, '05)

Iran on course for a showdown
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's call for the obliteration of Israel will harden international attitudes against the Islamic republic at a time it is about to be hauled before the UN Security Council over its nuclear program. Ahmadinejad, though, has put himself on another path of confrontation: with the very people who put him in power. - Safa Haeri (Oct 27, '05)

Where chaos is king
Given the chaos and violence currently afflicting much of Iraq, particularly its Sunni regions, it is hard to imagine that the Bush administration intended such an outcome to its invasion and occupation. Yet this very chaos is crucial to the US achieving its primary goals in the country and the region. - Mark LeVine (Oct 27, '05)

COMMENTARY
In Iraq for the long haul
When the Bush administration insists that it cannot spell out an exit strategy for Iraq and that it plans to stay put, it is being realistic. With Iraq continuing to divide US Republicans, the safe position is to refuse to be tied down to specifics. - Ehsan Ahrari (Oct 27, '05)

COMMENTARY
The Sunni option
While the Sunnis in Iraq know they have lost a battle, the war is still there to be fought. They will bide their time and attempt to sabotage the system, unless they are assured that the new Iraq is not just a euphemism for a permanent loss of their power. - Ehsan Ahrari (Oct 26, '05)

Follow the drugs: US shown the way
Tajikistan has become a natural pathway for drug traffickers heading to the West because of the 1,300-kilometer border it shares with Afghanistan, the opium and heroin factory of the world. Pleas for assistance in stemming the flow have largely fallen on deaf ears in the US and Europe, even though funds from the illegal trade help finance terrorist networks. - Ramtanu Maitra (Oct 26, '05)

The ball is in Syria's court
Syrian commentators and officials are crying foul over the UN-sanctioned report that points to a Syrian connection in the assassination in Lebanon of the former premier, Rafik Hariri. It's all political, they claim, and Syria fits perfectly into the culprit's cage because it is no longer an internationally strong country. This is all true. But Syria must do more than merely complain, and its watchwords should be "cooperation" and "wisdom". - Sami Moubayed (Oct 24, '05)

SPENGLER
A Syriajevo in the making?
The Syrian affair and its dabbling in Lebanon is a diversion. The flashpoint in the Middle East is Iran, where Tehran's leaders single-mindedly pursue a strategic objective, namely nuclear power status, while the Bush administration frets about Iraqi exit strategies and opinion polls. (Oct 24, '05)

How Britain botched the Iran stand-off
Accusations and counter-accusations between Britain and Iran over meddling in each other's "regions" remain largely unsubstantiated. But that's not so much the point. The message from Tehran is clear: even if the British believe their own propaganda, there is not much they can do about it. Britain does not call the shots in southern Iraq, and its efforts to become a key player in the stand-off between the US and Iran have exposed it as a mere pawn. - Mahan Abedin (Oct 21, '05)

Stoking Afghanistan's resistance
Authorities in Afghanistan and the US have reacted quickly to defuse the damage done by reports that US soldiers burned the bodies of two Taliban fighters. As the Soviets found out in Afghanistan, messing with traditions - Islam forbids the cremation of corpses - is a very dangerous business. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 21, '05)

US policy and the 'Oval Office cabal'
A close aide of former US secretary of state Colin Powell has launched an extraordinary attack on what he describes as a national-security policy-making apparatus made dysfunctional by secrecy, compartmentalization, distrust, and the machinations of the "Oval Office cabal" of Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney. - Jim Lobe (Oct 20, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
The occupiers' trial
With Saddam Hussein finally due in court, his defense team will argue that the trial has no jurisdiction because it has been created by an occupying power that has no right to change the legal system of an occupied country. In many ways, it's the occupation itself that is in the dock. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 19, '05)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Grenades in the global economic cockpit
In the second part of a two-part interview, Juan Cole focuses on the question of an American military withdrawal from Iraq and some possible resulting scenarios. - Tom Engelhardt (Oct 19, '05)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The treasure, the strongbox and the crowbar
Juan Cole's blog has become one of the most  popular - and influential  - on the Internet, whether it be for discussions on Iran, the low-intensity war in the Sunni areas of Iraq, or President George W Bush's role in Middle Eastern policymaking (greater  than many believe). Cole expands on these themes with Tom Engelhardt in the first part of a two-part interview. (Oct 18, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
How to constitute a civil war
If the Iraqi draft constitution is rejected on Saturday, the different strands of the Sunni resistance will be encouraged, because, for them, this is the occupiers' piece of paper. If it's approved, the upshot will be the same: Sunnis will conclude they have nothing left to lose, and the resistance will intensify. There couldn't have been a more constitutional way to civil war. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 14, '05)

Pay's lousy, but the slop's free
Simple dreams of a better life lure tens of thousands of foreign workers to Iraq, attracted by jobs with firms like Halliburton. The dream quickly becomes a nightmare of low wages, harsh living conditions, ever present danger and death. (Oct 14, '05)

Song and dance on the terror trail
From the outset, the US has failed to come to grips with its adversary in the "war on terror", starting with the first abortive attempts to corner Osama bin Laden more than four years ago. There are many reasons for this, but ultimately the finger of blame has to be pointed at a consistent failure in intelligence, and a lack of reliable partners. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 13, '05)

COMMENTARY
The Islamic agenda
The debate in Indonesia and Central Asia - and the other Muslim countries - is how to regain past glory. Al-Qaeda has one way, but not so easy to pin down are the agendas of other Islamist organizations, such as Hizb ut-Tahrir. - Ehsan Ahrari (Oct 13, '05)

SPEAKING FREELY
The way forward in southern Thailand
Government intervention hasn't worked to stop the bloodshed in Thailand's Muslim-dominated southern provinces. It's time to initiate a public peace process and inoculate society against violence. In other words, bring some new actors to the stage - perhaps even ordinary citizens. - S P Harish (Oct 13, '05)

SPENGLER
The blood is the life, Mr Rumsfeld!
Intra-confessional strife among Shi'ites represents a nastier obstacle to Iraqi constitutional democracy than the Sunni insurgency. That is why Iraq's constitution will be defeated. More than ever, Shi'ites will bathe in their own blood rather than submit to the subjugation of their tribes. (Oct 11, '05)

THE ROVING EYE
Fear and loathing in militia hell
The law of the jungle rules in Baghdad, coupled with the collapse of social life, as rival militias control the city, day and night, often dressed up as police. This is the visible legacy of the occupation on the eve of a popular vote on a constitution. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 11, '05)

SPEAKING FREELY
Basra and the threat of disintegration
After much soul-searching, 1920s Basra separatists might have voted for the new Iraqi constitution. Today's regionalist movements share similar political views to those of their 1920s counterparts, even if the goals are different and threats to Iraq's territorial integrity come from elsewhere. - Reidar Visser (Oct 11, '05)

Regional upheaval to follow earthquake
Even as Pakistan struggles with the devastation caused by the weekend's massive earthquake, tell-tale signs indicate that the government is in for a tough time over its handling of the crisis. And across the border in Afghanistan, the Taliban-led resistance will take some positives from the tragedy. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 11, '05)

Bush raises terror stakes
President George W Bush and Osama bin Laden agree on one thing: Iraq is the central front in the "war on terror". Their reasons for being there and their goals are of course vastly different, but neither is going to readily give ground. This is a fight to the finish, says Bush, whose latest pronouncements appear designed to enforce discipline and quash dissent within his own ranks. - Jim Lobe (Oct 7, '05)

COMMENTARY
It's the radicals, stupid
Every time there is a terror attack, such as the latest one in Indonesia, the debate over engaging moderate Muslims is ratcheted up. This misses the point. Moderate Muslims don't blow up anything or commit suicide bombings. The "war on terror" is about radicals and jihadis, from Indonesia to Afghanistan to Iraq, and dealing with root causes in such countries. - Ehsan Ahrari (Oct 7, '05)

'WAR ON TERROR' REVISITED
The conquest of Southwest Asia
Even before Katrina showed the emperor to have no clothes, there was growing unease that the Bush administration was subsidizing al-Qaeda to the tune of $300 billion and counting, in American taxpayers' money, by transforming Iraq into a preferred training ground for terrorists. So forget about "war on terror"; the war is mutating into what it was always meant to be - the conquest of Southwest Asia first, and Eurasia second. - Pepe Escobar (Oct 6, '05)

COMMENTARY
Where fear can't take us
President George W Bush is a one-issue president, with success hinging on protecting the US from danger. It's easy enough, after the Iraq and Katrina fiascos, simply to point out that he hasn't done so. But his critics, too, are trapped in a "national insecurity" mindset. - Ira Chernus (Oct 6, '05)

Tehran builds bridges with India's left
India's leftist parties, although they effectively keep the government in power, are strident in their criticism of any policies with which they don't agree, be it related to economic reforms or Iran's nuclear program. Sensing an invaluable ally, Tehran is doing some sweet-talking. - Siddharth Srivastava (Oct 6, '05)

Reinventing Iran's foreign policy
Iran's foreign policy is in a state of tumult, caught in the bureaucratic wheel of political transition. Political advisors with little or no foreign experience find themselves in the shark-infested sea of international and regional politics, with danger on every shore, from Iraq to Saudi Arabia to the United Nations. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 6, '05)

Back to the drawing board in Afghanistan
With the Taliban-al-Qaeda nexus consolidating and turning Afghanistan back into a sanctuary from which to direct global operations, and the loyalty of Afghan security forces in question, the US and its ally in the "war on terror", Pakistan, are seriously rethinking their strategy in the country. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 5, '05)

Western-trained, Western-armed, enemies
From Iraq to Afghanistan to the Central Asian republics, Western-trained soldiers are deserting en masse, with their weapons, many to join militant groups such as al-Qaeda. In Afghanistan, more than a quarter of the army is reported to have deserted, and it may not be a coincidence that US helicopters are falling out of the sky. - Ramtanu Maitra (Oct 5, '05)

Ousting Assad without a backup plan
The key players are waiting anxiously to see whether a special UN investigator pins the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, on Syria. The US would love nothing more than such a heaven-sent excuse for regime change in Damascus; it may, however, find that to be more bloody trouble than it's worth. - Ehsan Ahrari (Oct 4, '05)

The indefatigable insurgency
The US wants Iraqi forces to carry the brunt of the fight against the insurgency. That becomes a euphemism for having a higher death toll for Iraqi forces, as opposed to Americans. Anyway, the Iraqi forces are not ready, while the insurgency is increasingly resilient. So the US is stuck in Iraq, which is exactly what the insurgents want. - Ehsan Ahrari (Oct 3, '05)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Please turn on the lights
As the US's top soldier in Iraq says, leaving the country is not going to be like throwing a switch, where overnight the Iraqis are in charge. This is an unfortunate image for a country in which the US has been unable to deliver reasonable supplies of electricity. Withdrawal of American forces, though, is now, in one fashion or another, on just about everybody's agenda. - Tom Engelhardt (Oct 3, '05)

BOOK REVIEW by SPENGLER
Do you call that an empire?
Imperial Grunts by Robert Kaplan
The tattooed, tobacco-chewing, iron-pumping soldiers who make up much of the US Army simply cannot be compared to the soldier-scholars who made the British Empire. Therein lies one great difference between America's global police exercise and a true empire. Another great difference is that, having no colonies, there is no wealth for the US to loot. (Oct 3, '05)

Bali bombs a cure for amnesia
Saturday night's blasts in prime tourist areas may revive the hard times that followed the 2002 Kuta bombings on the popular resort island of Bali. The attacks should also surely remind Indonesia of how little progress it has made against the roots of terrorism. - Gary LaMoshi (Oct 3, '05)

Finally, the Democrats have a plan
Democrats are having trouble getting on the same page over US withdrawal from Iraq at a time when the Bush administration is on the defensive. A new plan, developed by a think tank with strong links to former president Bill Clinton, has a strategy for exit, as well as for unifying fractious Democrats. - Jim Lobe (Oct 3, '05)

September 2005