December 2005 

THE ROVING EYE
The ultimate quagmire
The most probable scenario for Iraq in the next few years is a fragile central government in Baghdad bombarded by an intractable guerrilla movement - a chaotic and sectarian hornets' nest breeding countless al-Qaeda leaders able to convulse the Middle East. - Pepe Escobar (Dec 22, '05)

Armed and dangerous: Taliban gear up
Afghanistan's Taliban-led resistance, flush with the money it is milking from the drug trade and secure in links it has established with the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka to tap the international arms market, is preparing to take its war against US-led forces to a new level. Prominent in its new armory are surface-to-air missiles. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Dec 21, '05)

What to believe in the 'war on terror'?
Opinion polls suggest increasing confusion in the US and a lack of reliable information about the "war on terror". Revelations of secret wiretaps on US citizens and "dark prisons" in Afghanistan further muddy the waters. - William Fisher and Jim Lobe (Dec 20, '05)

A new experience for Afghanistan
Members of Afghanistan's new parliament range from former warlords and Taliban officials to communists, technocrats and, for the first time, a strong representation of women. What they have in common is a lack of experience, which is where the problems could begin. (Dec 20, '05)

Iran wins big in Iraq's elections
With the likely emergence of a solid Shi'ite block in the new Iraqi parliament, and the defeat of the "secular" candidates with links to the US, Iran has every reason to be pleased. Similarly, Tehran will take heart from the gains of Hamas in Palestinian polls. Islamism has clearly placed itself in the vanguard of the Middle East's democratization. - M K Bhadrakumar (Dec 19, '05)

SPENGLER
When self-immolation is a rational choice
Why do political leaders believe that democracy fosters peace, when examples show that a broad electorate can be as bellicose as the most bloodthirsty tyrant? Look at the American civil war; now look at present-day Iran. (Dec 19, '05)

US embraces Iraqi insurgents
In official US-speak, Sunni insurgents have been transformed from "anti-Iraqi forces" to "nationalists". Now that they're respectable, the way is open for direct negotiations  rather than military confrontation. This sea change, which could hasten the withdrawal of US troops, excludes, of course, "al-Qaeda" and "terrorists". (Dec 16, '05)

Sunnis on hit list
The Badr Organization, an Iraqi Shi'ite militant group with ties to a prominent political party, plans to assassinate Sunni leaders and destroy a Sunni party participating in the election process, according to a document obtained by Asia Times Online. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Dec 16, '05)

The deadly skies over Iraq
The US began its war in Iraq with a massive "shock and awe" air attack on Baghdad. Since then, the air war has been kept in the shadows, even though its power has been let loose on heavily populated cities and towns. One airborne gun fires 6,000 rounds per minute over a range of several thousand yards. - Dahr Jamail (Dec 15, '05)

COMMENTARY
That US image problem
The US's image problem in the Arab world has little to do with the media there, despite George W Bush's assertions to the contrary. It has more to do with the dangerous insistence on ignoring the roots of the West's falling out with Muslims in the days of exploitation and colonization. - Ramzy Baroud (Dec 15, '05)

THE ROVING EYE Iraq: We vote, then we kick you out Iraq may well be on its way to extinction after Thursday's elections. Partition is already a fact for the four provinces of Kurdistan, and the nine Shi'ite provinces are heading the same way. The US could be left with little more than the Green Zone - which is not exactly an oil lake - and a lot of empty desert. - Pepe Escobar Love me, love my neighbor Iraqis are voting not only for a new leader, but for the direction of regional politics. Former secularist prime minister Iyad Allawi is championed by Syria, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, while Shi'ite cleric Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim's planned theocracy finds favor in Tehran. - Sami Moubayed (Dec 14, '05)

The Libya option for Syria
The Bush administration favors the "Libya option" for Syria - even though it missed the point in the original case. Engagement works much better than containment: diplomacy has a much better chance of bringing Syria back into the international fold. (Dec 14, '05)

Superpower vulnerability
It is simplistic to blame America's crusade of moral imperialism on the neo-conservative cabal that currently dictates US foreign policy. The scene was set long before their rise to power, and the harsh (and still unlearned) lessons of the futility of forcing a set of mores on others can be seen throughout history. - Henry C K Liu (Dec 13, '05)

Sunnis opt for bullets and ballots
Leading Sunni clerics and insurgent organizations are unofficially encouraging Sunnis to vote in Thursday's Iraqi elections for a slate of candidates who are calling for a timetable for US troop withdrawal. Meanwhile, the armed resistance will continue. (Dec 13, '05)

A dust storm over the Holocaust
Amid all the dust raised by the remarks of Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad on the Jews and the Holocaust, the "international community" is missing the point. Ahmadinejad hardly cares what the West thinks about him. He, and Iran's religious leaders, are focused on restoring the moribund connection between the Iranian revolution of 1979 and the people. - M K Bhadrakumar (Dec 12, '05)

COMMENTARY
Sectarian flaws in Iraq
When the US decided to implant democracy in Iraq, it believed that the natural basis for such a government had to be sectarian. Yet by doing this, the US - wittingly or unwittingly - has institutionalized a process that will only intensify divisiveness, animosity and mutual hatred. - Ehsan Ahrari (Dec 12, '05)

Wolves, scorpions and
police gone bad
The biggest challenge in Iraq is developing security forces, which are in a mess. The new police force is a failure, with heavy penetration by militias and allegations of brutal behavior, write Dahr Jamail and Harb al-Mukhtar. Meanwhile, two separate security/intelligence structures have emerged, one overseen by the Americans, the other led by Shi'ite Islamists with strong ties to Iran, notably the Badr Organization, with its elite "wolves" and "scorpions", reports Mahan Abedin. (Dec 9, '05)

 The government's men in masks

 Badr's spreading web

SPEAKING FREELY
Punishing activists or pursuing terrorists?
Arab-American journalist, ATol correspondent and US citizen Ramzy Baroud found himself on "a list" when he went to a US embassy - one example of how civil liberties have been eroded since September 11, 2001. But finally the courts are standing up to the Bush administration, Congress has its mojo back and Americans are waking up to the dangers of over-zealous and often-discriminatory law enforcement practices. - Maggie Mitchell Salem (Dec 9, '05)

Taken for a ride in the 'war on terror'
Pakistan is under constant pressure to keep up its end of the bargain with the US in the "war on terror". In return for juicy material rewards, Islamabad has to deliver on a plate al-Qaeda-linked suspects. This it has done with zeal, in quantity if not in quality. Now US intelligence has cottoned on, and is turning away Pakistan's "useless" prisoners. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Dec 8, '05)

The daunting logistics of withdrawal
It's one thing to talk about withdrawals and timetables, it's another to physically pull tens of thousands of troops out of a battle zone such as Iraq. From having to wash every vehicle before it can be transported, to finding a replacement force, the US faces a logistical nightmare. - David Isenberg (Dec 8, '05)

Syria owes Hezbollah one
With pressure mounting on Syria over the UN probe into the killing of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri, especially from the US, Lebanon's Hezbollah decided enough was enough. A sharp bout of "military diplomacy" sent a strong message, and the world listened. - Sami Moubayed (Dec 8, '05)

War crimes made easy
How has the Bush administration gotten away with such apparently illegal acts as hiding intelligence reports from Congress, creating secret prisons, establishing death squads, kidnapping people and spiriting them across national borders, and planning unprovoked wars? Jeremy Brecher and Brendan Smith explain. (Dec 7, '05)

Disappearing tricks
German abductions of suspected Resistance members in World War II were a precursor to what the CIA now refers to as "renditions". In between, there have been "disappearances" in Latin America, and other tricks. - Jim Lobe (Dec 7, '05)


The US chooses to manipulate the news in Iraq by planting stories with a positive spin on the occupation of the country. Al-Qaeda, meanwhile, has dispensed with grainy videos in favor of a state-of-the-art CD comprising key speeches of Osama bin Laden in several languages. Whether the propaganda is high-tech, low-tech or no-tech (in America's case, it's simple payola), the goal is the same: to win over the Muslim masses. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Dec 6, '05)

No withdrawal timetable, no Zarqawi
President George W Bush's refusal to discuss a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq slams the door on any chance of the Sunni resistance helping capture al-Qaeda's Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. This does not mean the end of talks with the Sunnis, though. (Dec 6, '05)

Iraqi kidnappers busy again
Hostage-takers are back in business in Iraq after a short break, as elections draw near. Since 2003, more than 20 groups have taken foreign hostages - some for money, others for political gain; six have executed their prey. Hostage-taking, the "smart weapon" in the insurgents' arsenal, costs little but returns are high. - Sudha Ramachandran (Dec 6, '05)

SPENGLER
Iran's strength in weakness
President Mahmud Ahmedinejad is acutely aware of the weakness - indeed hoplessness in the longer term - of Iran's position. Much like Adolf Hitler, who bluffed a weak hand into a nearly winning game, he evinces a superior cunning born of the knowledge that he has nothing to lose. So Iran continues its nuclear program and is close to gaining control of Iraq's oil-rich Shi'ite regions as the US approaches Tehran cap in hand. (Dec 5, '05)

US on the scent of terror money in Pakistan
The rapidity and ease with which relief money flowed to a Pakistani jihadi group in earthquake-hit Kashmir has prompted a US-inspired crackdown in Pakistan to track the movement of such funds. The net is being cast wide, and there have already been casualties. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Dec 5, '05)

It's propaganda (shock, horror)!
Not since Abu Ghraib has anything shocked the American media into such wide-eyed  wonderment over the horrors of war. First, they learned that torture was part of the effort to bring democracy to Iraq; now they discover that the US military has been subverting Iraq's (soon-to-be) free, democratic press by planting stories! (Dec 2, '05)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
How (not) to withdraw from Iraq
Amid the hurricane of "withdrawal" proposals - trial balloons, op-eds, hints, clues and suggestions of every sort - four largely uncovered subjects actually tell us something about what's happening in terms of "withdrawal" from Iraq. These are: permanent bases, air power, oil and Kurdistan. - Tom Engelhardt (Dec 2, '05)

Fighting talk, but who's going to fight?
Troop withdrawal from Iraq is now definitely on the Bush administration's agenda; it's just a question of when and how many. Much depends on training a viable Iraqi alternative, which is where the problems begin. Already, the Iraqi security forces - with their sectarian make-up - are themselves contributing to the country's destabilization. - David Isenberg (Dec 1, '05)

Rallying cry from fading Bush
In pledging "nothing less than complete victory", President George W Bush has gone on the offensive to rally fading support for his unpopular policy in Iraq. At the same time, a major White House policy document suggests preparations to pull US troops out of a war they are not winning. - Jim Lobe (Dec 1, '05)

Iran and the US exit strategy in Iraq
US withdrawal from Iraq will not happen overnight, but through a sequence of phases, making it essential that all of Iraq's neighbors, above all Iran, be incorporated into the exit strategy. Otherwise, the risk of an Iranian spoiler role will grow. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec 1, '05)

US 'security' favors Indonesian thugs
The Bush administration's decision to drop its arms embargo against Indonesia and resume full military ties underscores profound ignorance of the world's largest predominantly Muslim country and of where the US's true interests lie. Or maybe the Bush people are more cunning than we realize. - Gary LaMoshi (Dec 1, '05)

November 2005