January 2006 

Cartoons and the clash of freedoms
If someone yells "fire" in a crowded theater, is he exercising his freedom of speech or is he being recklessly irresponsible? To many Westerners, insulting Muslims by publishing offensive cartoons of their Prophet is seen as their sacred and inflexible right; but the unrestrained exercise of "freedom" without respecting others' sacred tenets is misplaced in today's global village. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 3, '06)

EDITOR'S NOTE
A kick in the eyeballs
Poke each other often enough with a stick - or a cartoon, or a fuel-laden airliner - and you'll both get what you want. (Feb 3, '06)

Plan B and four nightmares in Iraq
The race for Iraq's next prime minister has been whittled down to four candidates. All of them are the product of Islamic parties. All of them are frowned on by Washington. This means a re-evaluation of the United States' plan A - military and financial assistance to Iraq. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 3, '06)

Iran and the jaws of a trap
Russia and China seem to appreciate that Iran is in for a big and probably deadly surprise if their mediation efforts fail. And if the Iranian leaders think they can deter an attack because the US is bogged down in Iraq, they are already between the jaws of a well-set trap. - Paul Levian (Feb 2, '06)

Spying, lying, and saying no
If Americans ever get around to asking themselves how they let their president talk them into invading Iraq, and how they subsequently let him shrug aside a Vietnam-era law limiting his powers to spy on them, the answers will not come easy. Despite its valuable insights, a new book shows that the questions don't come easy, either. - Thomas Powers (Feb 2, '06)

COMMENTARY
Punishing Denmark, the wrong enemy
Publication of a cartoon insulting the Prophet Mohammed was indeed irresponsible and intellectually inept, but it is strange that the Arab/Muslim world can manage to coordinate an attack on a small European country over a drawing in a newspaper while it fails to do so against much more serious acts of Western and Israeli aggression. - Ramzy Baroud (Feb 1, '06)

The noose tightens around Iran
Iran still has some wriggle room to avoid being sent to the UN Security Council over its nuclear program, with Russia and China emerging as critical intermediaries. But the fact that the Big 5 powers were able to come up with a compromise agreement on the issue is a huge setback for Tehran, and the time is very close when it will have to let it be known exactly what its nuclear aspirations are - and be ready for the consequences. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 1, '06)

China's veto power weighs heavy
China considers its energy supplies a matter of national security, and it cherishes its carefully crafted position as a peace broker on the Korean Peninsula. Depending on how Beijing uses its veto at the Security Council over Iran's nuclear dossier, these key policies could be threatened. (Feb 1, '06)

Afghan opium: License to kill
While fighting five "wars on drugs" at a cost of US$150 billion, the US has seen a fivefold increase in the world's illicit opium supply - and by far the biggest producer is US-occupied Afghanistan. The latest plan for solving the Afghan problem is to license poppy growing for medicinal uses, but, writes Pierre-Arnaud Chouvy, this harebrained scheme is as misguided as recent crop eradication efforts. (Jan 31, '06)

US shifts Iraq loyalties The Bush administration has shifted policy toward realignment with Sunni forces to balance the influence of pro-Iranian Shi'ites in Iraq. Although it may be a way out of a war that cannot be won, the shift brings with it a different set of costs and risks, including the release of bottled-up anti-US sentiment among Shi'ites. Biting the hand of friendship A survey indicates that a whopping 88% of Sunni Arabs approve of "attacks on US-led forces" in Iraq. That's not a good sign for current US negotiations with Sunni insurgents. - Jim Lobe (Jan 31, '06)

SPENGLER
No true Scotsman starts a war
Contrary to American dogma, history shows that democracies are more likely to start wars than dictatorships. Now we have begun the third act of George W Bush's tragedy, in which he meets his nemesis, Hamas, the winner of democratic Palestinian elections. Bush's delusion that led him to the brink of disaster - that "the power of democracy" is necessary for peace in the Middle East - is shattered. (Jan 30, '06)

A high-risk game of nuclear chicken
The danger of a strategy of preemptive wars is that when a country such as Iran calls the US bluff and has the potential for a formidable response, the US is left with little option but to launch the unthinkable, a nuclear strike. Saner voices within the US political establishment can still prevail, though. - F William Engdahl (Jan 30, '06)

Iran's challenge to the UN
India and China have overnight slowed the US's drive to take Iran's nuclear dossier to the United Nations. But the issue of possible sanctions or other punitive measures against Tehran has not gone away, something the "paralyzed" UN will have to address. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 27, '06)

Covert ops and disinformation aimed at Iran
Recent news stories that suggested the US was planning an air attack on Iran appear to have been planted by the Bush administration to ratchet up pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program. Anyway it's likely that, for now at least, the US will rely on sabotage, rather than air power, to disrupt the program. - Gareth Porter (Jan 26, '06)

WHAT 'WAR ON TERROR' HAS WROUGHT (Jan 26, '06) Spying and lying in 21st-century America More than buildings were brought down on September 11, 2001. Historical protections of speech, assembly, protest, and privacy enjoyed by US citizens and legal residents also came under attack as a stampeded Congress, goaded by the administration, abdicated its constitutional duty to prevent the undue concentration of power in the chief executive. Taking no legal prisoners Waging the "war on terror”, we are told, requires a new paradigm that supersedes international law. Thus, those caught in the war's dragnet are "illegal combatants" and as such are not protected by the Geneva Conventions. But such verbiage ignores the overall purpose of the conventions as well as specific articles that don't suit the Bush administration. - Sidney Gendin

Taking Osama's name in vain
"Osama is a hero." "Osama is a deviant." Depending on the audience, a leading Pakistan-based jihadi group active in Kashmir will go to any lengths to lure new members and secure funding by playing the Osama bin Laden card. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 26, '06)

US sets sights on asymmetric warfare
The Pentagon's four-year defense review lays the foundations for the US to continue its battle against terrorism and to prevent hostile states from acquiring weapons of mass destruction (Iran?), as well as "influence" such countries as China. To these ends, the armed forces will increasingly embrace asymmetric warfare, but not at the expense of conventional and high-tech might. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jan 25, '06)

Terrorism by numbers
The annual US State Department report to Congress on terrorism used to be heavy on statistics, based on the theory that you cannot manage what you cannot measure. New complexities since September 2001 have obliged the State Department to stop publishing these statistical data. But it was not the theory that was wrong; it was the methodology, and the report is sorely missed. - Bhaskar Dasgupta (Jan 25, '06)

The many faces of political Islam
From the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to the Shi'ites in Iraq, and most recently Hamas in Palestine, political Islam is on the ascendancy. These advances are causing deep concern in Washington. But to deal with them, it has to be recognized that they are not only different in each case, but particular to each country. - Dilip Hiro (Jan 25, '06)

The Iran-Israel misconception
There is an erroneous belief, especially in the US, that Tehran's road to peacefully engaging Washington travels through Jerusalem. Such misperceptions sow the seeds of conflict. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 24, '06)

Pakistan in a spot over Iranian nuke secrets
By attacking a suspected militant hideout in Pakistan, the US has shown it will take matters into its own hands, no matter how much political harm this might do to President General Pervez Musharraf. The general has a bargaining chip, though: nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, to whom the US would dearly like to speak in connection with Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 24, '06)

SPENGLER
Why the West will attack Iran
From Jacques Chirac to Mohamed ElBaradei, the Western establishment has rapidly formed a consensus on the eventual use of force against Iran. This is because Tehran's quest for nuclear weapons is based on its goal of imperial expansion through the oilfields of Southwest Asia, something the West and its allies will do anything to prevent. (Jan 23, '06)

Turkey feels Iran chill
Turkey fears a nuclear-armed Iran, but it is also painfully aware that it would pay dearly for any collusion with the United States in bringing about regime change in Tehran. An independent Kurdistan is one likely result of such a move. Meanwhile, Turkey shivers after Iran cut its gas supply. - Iason Athanasiadis (Jan 23, '06)

After the Shi'ite victory, the work starts
The official results of Iraq's elections confirm a victory for Shi'ite regionalism and religiousness. But since the Shi'ites ended short of a majority, whether or not they like it they will have to talk deals with the Sunnis and the Kurds. - Sami Moubayed (Jan 23, '06)

US promises aid against Tamil Tigers
With a four-year-old ceasefire in Sri Lanka on the verge of crumbling, the US has offered to strengthen its military assistance programs and increase training for government forces should serious hostilities resume with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. The Tigers have been warned that Colombo's patience is limited. (Jan 23,  '06)

THE ROVING EYE
Bin Laden: It's all about the voice
Just a voice, capable of sending the markets into a tailspin, the networks into hysteria, resetting the global agenda and unleashing armies of US intelligence analysts scrambling to confirm if the voice is real or fake. Re-enter Osama bin Laden onto the global stage, this time as politician. - Pepe Escobar (Jan 20, '06)

New al-Qaeda phase begins
Al-Qaeda has undergone major restructuring - and soul-searching - in preparation for its relaunch as an open organization to pitch a worldwide battle against US interests. Osama bin Laden's tape shows that it is now ready. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 20, '06)

SPEAKING FREELY
What the Iran 'nuclear issue' is really about
It suits both the US and Iran for the issue to be seen to be the Iranian nuclear "threat". In fact that "issue" is a proxy for Iraq, where Iran is meddling in what is and has been for many years the US's number-one obsession: energy security. - Chris Cook (Jan 20, '06)

THE AFGHAN EXIT STRATEGY    All the US needs to do is claim "victory" and disengage, even though Afghanistan is a mess, and pass the baton to the "New Europeans". - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 18, '06) THE IRAQ RECONSTRUCTION STRATEGY With most of the $21 billion allocated for the reconstruction of Iraq spent, the US will not provide further funds, even though the effort so far has left Iraqis worse off than before the war. Instead, the State Department, which now controls reconstruction efforts, will tap the US's friends. - David Isenberg and William Fisher (Jan 19, '06)

Terror arrests raise alarm in India
Police across the country have arrested or killed several operatives belonging to terrorist groups. While this is good news, it also portends that the tentacles of terror are spreading fast, and India has ramped up official rhetoric against Pakistan for its alleged support of jihadis. - Siddharth Srivastava (Jan 19, '06)

COMMENTARY
When 'news' is harmful to your health
Apologizing to idiots only encourages their stupidity - or malice - as John Kerry learned during the Swift boat smear campaign. The UN has never learned. Yet in an age when the US Defense Department finds it necessary to hire a French PR firm to insert favorable reports on Iraq into the blogosphere, no one is safe from "citizen journalists" and their willing corporate-media stooges. - Ian Williams (Jan 18, '06)

Kissinger, the inconvenient adviser
It surprised many that Henry Kissinger, one of the most experienced and savvy foreign-policy experts in recent US history, was not invited to President George W Bush's recent high-level consultation party on Iraq. But it was no oversight; Kissinger was never likely to give the advice his "master" wished to hear. - Dmitry Shlapentokh (Jan 18, '06)

Pakistan's misplaced ire over US misfire
Pakistan's vigorous protests over the US air raid that killed 18 civilians rather than al-Qaeda's number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, ring hollow. The Pakistanis knew of the impending attack, and along with the US they got their intelligence wrong. - Syed Saleem Shazad (Jan 17, '06)

North Korea, the 'Sopranos' state
The US seems to be shifting its focus away from North Korea's illegal missile sales and efforts to acquire nuclear weapons and toward the rogue state's Mafia-like activities. The strategy may have more to do with regime change than nuclear disarmament. - Todd Crowell (Jan 17, '06)

Bush seeks his enemies' help in Iraq
To avoid failure of its mission in Iraq, the Bush administration has been driven to seek the help of two major enemies - the Sunni insurgents and the government of Iran - but both initiatives have failed. Further "adjustments" in US strategy must eventually be forthcoming. (Jan 17, '06)

Jihadi threat looms over peace hopes
A Philippine government delegation and a team from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front are soon to meet in Malaysia for exploratory peace talks. But though the MILF may genuinely want an end to violence in the Muslim south, jihadi groups such as Abu Sayyaf remain a dangerous force. - Fabio Scarpello (Jan 17, '06)

Iraq, the mother of all budget busters
Recall the sacking of White House economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey for suggesting in 2002 that the Iraq war could cost $100-200 billion - up to three times the $70 billion the Bush administration estimated. Then wonder at the latest estimate of $1-2 trillion - and why someone has not been sacked for running 2,000% over budget. - David Isenberg (Jan 13, '06)

BOOK REVIEW
The globalization of terror
Shalimar the Clown by Salman Rushdie
Rushdie plunges into the viscera of terrorism's interconnectedness - how dots of violence, justice and revenge link across time and space in blood-soaked lines. And he postulates that the germ of hate is inherent in individuals. - Sreeram Chaulia (Jan 13, '06)

Red lines in the Iranian sand
Ever-sensitive oil markets are already rising over the hardening of positions between Iran and the West: the world is watching a telescoped replay of the drama over Iraq that eventually led to its invasion and occupation. (Jan 12, '06)

Precision killing in Iraq
If the US fulfills its expectation of surpassing 150 air attacks in Iraq per month as part of an intensified air war, and if the average air strike (with precision weapons) produces 10 fatalities, air power alone could kill 20,000 Iraqis in 2006. - Michael Schwartz (Jan 12, '06)

US turns against Musharraf
The US has stood patiently behind Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf and his military dictatorship. But after five years, with Afghanistan nowhere closer to subjugation, let alone al-Qaeda, and militancy in Kashmir unchecked, Washington is having serious second thoughts. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 11, '06)

Terror: What Japan has to fear
Japan fears that the Sipah-e-Sahaba, generally portrayed as a Pakistan-based Sunni extremist outfit, is establishing a presence in the country. The group's violence is not restricted to Shi'ites, nor are its activities confined to the sectarian war in Pakistan: it has a presence in at least 17 nations. - Sudha Ramachandran (Jan 11, '06)

Dismal days ahead in Iraq
Many Iraqis see dismal days ahead in the face of rising violence and the decision by the US administration not to seek further funds for reconstruction. And despite the US$1-2 trillion cost of the war, they say their lives are worse than before the US invaded. (Jan 11, '06)

Israel not to blame for Iraq mess
Israel and its US backers deserve criticism for many tragic policies in the Middle East, but the invasion of Iraq is not one of them. In fact, Israel stands to be the big loser from the Iraq debacle, as it is victimized by the age-old "blame the Jews" syndrome and made a scapegoat by the real culprits in the Bush administration and Congress. (Jan 10, '06)

Shi'ite challenge to US policy
The US is trying to convince the Sunnis in Iraq that a share of political power will protect their interests. But the Shi'ites are having nothing of it: they want the Sunnis politically and economically marginalized. (Jan 10, '06)

SPENGLER
When even the pope has to whisper
Islam was founded as a theocracy, and the values the US hopes to impose in the Middle East are alien to that culture. But can Islam reform and embrace democratic ideals? No less a man than Pope Benedict XVI has said he does not believe so, but even for him the very suggestion is one that must be made quietly. (Jan 9, '06)

The botched 'war on terror'
What approval President George W Bush retains rests largely on the belief in his ability to conduct the "war on terror". But as the practical implications of Bush's failure in this war become ever more apparent - through the continued spread and potency of radical jihadism - this last, crucial prop of the president's support could soon fall away. - Michael T Klare (Jan 9, '06)

The incredible shrinking coalition
The US-led coalition in Iraq has declined from a 2003 high of 38 nations and 50,000 troops to 28 nations and about 20,000 soldiers. Although the reduction is not that militarily significant, the political message to the Bush administration is. - David Isenberg (Jan 9, '06)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The unrestrained president
When critics concentrate on any specific issue involving the Bush administration they invariably miss the point. What's really at stake is the moving of the goalposts of presidential power, of what is permissible, under the premise of the "war on terror". - Tom Engelhardt (Jan 5, '06)

Al-Qaeda's man who knows too much
As head of al-Qaeda's Pakistan operations, Ghulam Mustafa gained deep knowledge of the group's workings, as well as its intimate relationship with elements of the Pakistani establishment. The US would love to get its hands on him, now that he's in a Pakistani cell. But the man with too many tales to tell may just as well have fallen into a black hole. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 4, '06)

SPENGLER
Victor Davis Hanson goes to the seashore
As shown ages ago by Athens' suicidal Peloponnesian War, democracy does not necessarily promote peace and stability. The Greek historian Thucydides understood this tragedy, but Hanson, purveyor of White House bedside reading, strives to exonerate democracy by finding alternative explanations for the Athenians' disaster. George W Bush should be careful what he wishes for in the Middle East. (Jan 3, '06)

COMMENTARY
Democracy, and all that talk
A new year and a new Iraqi government offer the US a fresh opportunity to walk the talk of freedom and democracy. But first it will have to ditch a foreign policy characterized by lofty rhetoric rarely matched by substantive measures. - Mark LeVine (Jan 3, '06)

December 2005