February 2006 

Iraq: The wages of chaos
The Bush administration's Israel-inspired strategy is to generate enough chaos in Iraq so that the US can dig itself in and leave Iraqis in no position to tell it to leave. But the wages of chaos are steep: they could spell the end not just of a united Iraq, but of the Bush administration's imperial ambitions. - Mark LeVine (Feb 28, '06)

Syria in Washington's too-hard basket
Syria has grasped the advantage in its continuing confrontation with the US and in its standoff with the international community over involvement in Lebanese affairs. And the Bush administration just doesn't know what to do about it. - Ashraf Fahim (Feb 28, '06)

Dissing Bush
The US president doesn't get much respect abroad, or at home, Americans say. (Feb 28, '06)

SPENGLER
The case for complacency in Iraq
No country fears civil war in Iraq more than Iran, which has been able to use the threat of a Shi'ite uprising as leverage against the United States. And a stable, constitutional, Shi'ite-dominated government in Baghdad is in the US's worst interest: the Iranization of the country would be inevitable. So what's happening in that hell-hole right now could be seen by Washington as a gift - from the devil. (Feb 27, '06)

Iran's fate still in US hands
With Iran and Russia agreeing in principle to set up a joint uranium enrichment facility on Russian soil, some of the heat has been taken out of the nuclear crisis. But the ball remains in the US court: an inflexible US attitude could torpedo the Russian deal and force the issue at the UN Security Council. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Feb 27, '06)

SPEAKING FREELY
Fighting a media war against al-Qaeda
Will the US be seen by the Arab and Islamic worlds as a nation of opportunity and pluralism, or one of oppression and violence dedicated to the destruction of Islam? The answer will depend on how vigorously the US engages in the media war with al-Qaeda - a war that the US has been losing. - Chris Heffelfinger (Feb 27, '06)

When Uncle Sam comes marching in
US soldiers are deployed in force in the Philippines, supposedly training Filipino soldiers, giving away medicine and building schools. They are legally barred from combat - but don't tell that to the Moro National Liberation Front, which is not a terrorist group but a legitimate liberation movement, and which is getting it in the neck. - Herbert Docena (Feb 24, '06)

Payback time in Iraq
Several parties to the Iraq imbroglio stand to benefit from the bombing of the Shi'ite Golden Mosque, and fingers are being pointed at all the usual suspects. More important than who planted the explosives is the fact that Shi'ites have seized on the attack to justify striking at Sunnis. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 24, '06)

Shrine attack deals a blow to anti-US unity
Al-Qaeda-linked groups, although they are the prime suspects in the attack on the Shi'ite Golden Mosque in Iraq, could be the biggest losers in the fallout. Sunnis, too, revere the shrine, and once the wave of outrage subsides, the Iraqi resistance will be viewed in a new light. And plans for a region-wide anti-US resistance movement centered on Iran will have to be rethought. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 23, '06)

SPEAKING FREELY
Russia and the 'war of civilizations'
Russia has shown renewed activism in the Middle East and larger Muslim world. That doesn't mean Moscow is anti-Western, only that it appreciates that the "war of civilizations" between Western nations and Islam is intensifying and understands that it has no business participating in that war. - Andrei Tsygankov (Feb 23, '06)

Rumsfeld declares war on 'bad' press
Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld plans to intensify a campaign to promote global media coverage that is sympathetic to the Bush administration. The administration has already spent a whopping US$1.6 billion on public relations and media over the past two and a half years to sway public opinion; now, Rumsfeld wants the media to become a major weapon in the "war on terror". (Feb 22, '06)

Iraq's kingmaker is no Bush pawn 
The election of a decidedly Islamist government in Iraq and the growing power of Muqtada al-Sadr are major disappointments to US President George W Bush. But if Kurdish and secular groups coalesce to prevent Islamists from forming government, Iraq is likely to plunge into yet another round of chaos and cataclysm. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 22, '06)

Musharraf losing his grip
Attempts by President General Pervez Musharraf to score political points by fanning protest rallies in Pakistan over cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed have backfired spectacularly. Musharraf is himself now the target of escalating demonstrations across the country that have taken on a will of their own. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 21, '06)

Pakistan's patterns of power
There is a clear, repetitive pattern in Pakistani politics that can be readily applied to Musharraf's seizure of power - and perhaps to his overthrow as well. - Olivier Immig (Feb 21, '06)

SPENGLER
Devil's sourdough and the decline of nations
When life's pains are too much to swallow, even deeply religious people forget how to laugh, and thereby the existence of a whole culture can fall into jeopardy. Even Jews, whose sense of humor is famous, may as well be Catholics if they forget how to joke; what, then, is to become of the Muslims? (Feb 21, '06)

Closing the doors to nuclear diplomacy
Talks between Moscow and Iran over the latter's nuclear program, which promised a compromise solution, are faltering. The only feasible scenario for preventing this crisis from escalating is to keep this golden opportunity alive, yet this is impossible without major rethinking on the part of the US. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Feb 21, '06)

COMMENTARY
The passing of the 'unipolar moment'
The "unipolar moment" in which the US operates as the world's dominant power is passing. The problem of the emerging multipolar system is that it has no equilibrium and the system is still ill-defined and, as such, inherently dangerous, as the Iranian crisis illustrates. - Scott B MacDonald (Feb 21, '06)

Ahmadinejad on the warpath
In consolidating his power around a hard core of "second-generation" revolutionaries, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has placed himself in opposition to both the conservative clerical establishment and the liberal and reformist camp. Neither of these groups wants Iran to be dragged into a war with the US - unlike Ahmadinejad, who sees conflict as an opportunity. - Mahan Abedin (Feb 17, '06)

Funding regime change
With few military options to threaten Iran at hand, Bush administration hawks are turning to the banner of democracy (and $75 million) in a bid to destabilize the administration in Tehran. But the news finds few Iranians concerned and fewer exultant. - Iason Athanasiadis (Feb 17, '06)

US joins the battle of Kabul 
The gloves are off in Kabul, where factions are fighting for political dominance. Although mujahideen dominate the parliament, they are splintered, and the US is backing the spiritual followers of Pir Sayed Ahmed Gailani to bring political stability to Afghanistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 17, '06)

US struggles with a mutating insurgency
"In Iraq, the US fights an enemy it hardly knows." This is the indictment of a major independent report on the Sunni insurgency, which is described as having adapted quickly and effectively to changing US tactics and being more united than ever - and confident of victory. - Jim Lobe (Feb 16, '06)

The Iraq war's defining weapon
The improvised explosive device or roadside bomb is the biggest nightmare for US forces in Iraq - accounting for more than half of all US injuries and deaths in combat since March 2003. Just when the Americans find a way to counter it, the insurgents find a new way to deliver a deadly blast. - Sudha Ramachandran (Feb 16, '06)

Mixed motives stoke Pakistan's flames
Protesters in Pakistan, initially roused by cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed, are becoming increasingly indiscriminate in venting their anger, with targets ranging from Scandinavian and US interests to state buildings and vehicles. The situation is ripe for exploitation, by equally indiscriminate power-players. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 16, '06)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
A permanent basis for staying in Iraq
With hospitals, swimming pools, cinemas, burger and pizza joints, airstrips and bus routes, the four giant US bases in Iraq can hold up to 20,000 personnel each. Nobody in the Bush administration wants to talk about them, but as long as the facilities are made more enduring (which they are), there will be no genuine withdrawal from Iraq. - Tom Engelhardt (Feb 15, '06)

Goodbye Iraq, hello Afghanistan
With Ibrahim Jaafari being given another shot at the premiership, Iraq will have a fractious and weak central government, and go the same way as Afghanistan. Warlords, religious and secular, and tribal sheikhs will defend their mini-states armed to the teeth, and criminal gangs will run parallel to death squads. Which suits Washington fine. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 14 '06)

Jaafari's path strewn with rocks
The Iranians aren't too pleased. Syria is, as are the Americans, given the options for Ibrahim Jaafari as premier of Iraq. For his part, Jaafari is already being slapped with irreconcilable ultimatums over the choice of his cabinet. He can only hope Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani comes to the rescue. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 14 '06)

COMMENTARY
The clash of fundamentalisms
Religious fundamentalists and their secular counterparts are both convinced that they are right. Yet fundamentalists of both sides are equally at fault. The secular fanatics are as much responsible for fanning the current flames of hatred and turbulence in Europe and other Muslim countries as their Muslim counterparts. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 14 '06)

Goodbye Iraq, hello Afghanistan
With Ibrahim Jaafari being given another shot at the premiership, Iraq will have a fractious and weak central government, and go the same way as Afghanistan. Warlords, religious and secular, and tribal sheikhs will defend their mini-states armed to the teeth, and criminal gangs will run parallel to death squads. Which suits Washington fine. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 14 '06)

Jaafari's path strewn with rocks
The Iranians aren't too pleased. Syria is, as are the Americans, given the options for Ibrahim Jaafari as premier of Iraq. For his part, Jaafari is already being slapped with irreconcilable ultimatums over the choice of his cabinet. He can only hope Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani comes to the rescue. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 14 '06)

COMMENTARY
The clash of fundamentalisms
Religious fundamentalists and their secular counterparts are both convinced that they are right. Yet fundamentalists of both sides are equally at fault. The secular fanatics are as much responsible for fanning the current flames of hatred and turbulence in Europe and other Muslim countries as their Muslim counterparts. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 14 '06)

SPENGLER
War with Iran on the worst terms
Iran cannot be persuaded to abandon its nuclear ambitions. The government cannot be overthrown or derailed. But militarily, it can be beaten handily. Washington is unwilling to act now for various compelling reasons, but war is inevitable and the longer it's put off, the worse it will be. (Feb 13, '06)

Iran plays Russian roulette
A Russian proposal that it enrich uranium for Iran is probably Tehran's last chance to defuse the crisis over its nuclear program. Other options could be put on the table though, including Russia enriching uranium on Iran's territory, together with China and others. But time is short, and Iran, intransigent as ever, has postponed the talks. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Feb 13, '06)

Insider reignites Iraqi intelligence war
With the US's top Middle East analyst now adding his voice to the chorus accusing the Bush administration of distorting intelligence leading to the Iraq war, the whole question is once again a hot political potato. - Jim Lobe (Feb 13, '06)

SPEAKING FREELY
Freedom dead, democracy dying
When one lives in such a brutalized global village, when men in suits and ties calmly impose barbarities on others in the name of defending something they call civilization and for passing on the torch of liberty to less fortunate souls in strange lands, the time has come to ask for a clear definition of "civilization". -  Aseem Shrivastava (Feb 13, '06)

Hamas's lesson for Indonesia and the US
The results of the Palestinian election offer the Bush administration an opportunity to get on the right side in the fight for Indonesian hearts and minds. Hint: stop focusing on the radical Islamic bogeyman. - Gary LaMoshi (Feb 10, '06)

Taliban deal lights a slow-burning fuse
On the face of it, Jalalabad and its surrounding provincial areas are a sea of calm in eastern Afghanistan. The bombs and the suicide attacks will come, though, when the Taliban are ready to extend their battlefront, and end their unwritten deal with the provincial government. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 10, '06)

HOW THE WEST WAS ONE
United states - minus United States
For a while it appeared that the idea of the "West" and "Western unity" had been consigned to history. Now it is resurgent in the face of Iranian nuclear defiance, cartoon riots, and bombings in Europe. A great schism seems to be developing between the Islamic and Western worlds. Yet this is not a development the world's lone superpower would welcome; it threatens the US's role in the present unipolar order. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 9, '06)

Iraqi visions on the road to Damascus  
Iraqi Shi'ite leader Muqtada al-Sadr has been knocking on Syria's door, promoting himself as a politician and not just a resistance leader, and trying to bolster his pan-Arab contacts. The Syrians have proffered a friendly hand. But Muqtada does not fit their, nor the US's, designs for Iraq. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 9, '06)

US digs in for its 'Long War'
The "war on terror" and its short-lived replacement, the "war against extremism", have been superseded by the "Long War", which the Pentagon has conceived along the lines of the enduring strategy of the Cold War that ultimately proved successful. Dealing with global jihad, however, is not the same as tackling communism. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 8, '06)

Washington fuels Iran's nuclear policy
The dominant view of the US intelligence community in recent years has been that Iran's fear of a US attack has driven its desire for a nuclear program, which could potentially lead to a nuclear weapons capability. Yet the US has steadfastly refused to stop rattling sabers. - Gareth Porter (Feb 8, '06)

The Taliban's bloody foothold in Pakistan 
Criminals in Pakistan's remote North Waziristan tribal area have traditionally called the shots in the lawless region bordering Afghanistan. Now it's the Taliban, who have seized control at the barrel of a gun, and are using public executions to rally support. From this self-proclaimed "Islamic state", the Taliban will target Afghanistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 7, '06)

Stoking the jihadi fires 
Widespread protests in Afghanistan over blasphemous cartoons have already claimed several lives. With passions running high, al-Qaeda and the Taliban have a fertile field from which to pluck fresh jihadis. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 7, '06)

How Malaysia sees Thailand's southern strife
Malaysia has a natural cultural affinity with the restive ethnic Malays of southern Thailand, but for the most part has stayed out of the conflict for pragmatic reasons. But domestic pressure and Bangkok's hardline response to the insurgency have not made it easy for Malaysia's leaders to cooperate with Thailand to resolve the conflict. - S P Harish (Feb 7, '06)

SPENGLER
Why can't Muslims take a joke?
The Mohammed cartoon affair is even worse than it looks, yet the images are tame compared with other topics that the mainstream media avoid. With freedom of choice and access to information come doubt. Christianity and Judaism are bloodied - indeed, drained almost dry - by nearly two centuries of scriptural criticism; Islam's turn barely has begun. (Feb 6, '06)

SPEAKING FREELY
The misplaced defense of free speech
Free press? Or cowardly media eager to please their wealthy masters? The media do little to ask for the impeachment of the consummate liars and mass-murderers who occupy elected positions in more than one Western democracy today, even as they pretend to teach lessons in political morals to less fortunate countries.  - Aseem Shrivastava (Feb 6, '06)

Sideshows on Iran's frogmarch to the UN
Ahead of it being reported to the UN Security Council, Iran, in a proposal aimed at resolving the crisis over its nuclear program, offered for the first time to extend a freeze on enrichment activities for another two years. The European Union instantly dismissed the offer - and then put a tight media lid on it and lied that it contained nothing new. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Feb 6, '06)

Cartoons and the clash of freedoms
If someone yells "fire" in a crowded theater, is he exercising his freedom of speech or is he being recklessly irresponsible? To many Westerners, insulting Muslims by publishing offensive cartoons of their Prophet is seen as their sacred and inflexible right; but the unrestrained exercise of "freedom" without respecting others' sacred tenets is misplaced in today's global village. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 3, '06)

EDITOR'S NOTE
A kick in the eyeballs
Poke each other often enough with a stick - or a cartoon, or a fuel-laden airliner - and you'll both get what you want. (Feb 3, '06)

Plan B and four nightmares in Iraq
The race for Iraq's next prime minister has been whittled down to four candidates. All of them are the product of Islamic parties. All of them are frowned on by Washington. This means a re-evaluation of the United States' plan A - military and financial assistance to Iraq. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 3, '06)

Iran and the jaws of a trap
Russia and China seem to appreciate that Iran is in for a big and probably deadly surprise if their mediation efforts fail. And if the Iranian leaders think they can deter an attack because the US is bogged down in Iraq, they are already between the jaws of a well-set trap. - Paul Levian (Feb 2, '06)

Spying, lying, and saying no
If Americans ever get around to asking themselves how they let their president talk them into invading Iraq, and how they subsequently let him shrug aside a Vietnam-era law limiting his powers to spy on them, the answers will not come easy. Despite its valuable insights, a new book shows that the questions don't come easy, either. - Thomas Powers (Feb 2, '06)

COMMENTARY
Punishing Denmark, the wrong enemy
Publication of a cartoon insulting the Prophet Mohammed was indeed irresponsible and intellectually inept, but it is strange that the Arab/Muslim world can manage to coordinate an attack on a small European country over a drawing in a newspaper while it fails to do so against much more serious acts of Western and Israeli aggression. - Ramzy Baroud (Feb 1, '06)

The noose tightens around Iran
Iran still has some wriggle room to avoid being sent to the UN Security Council over its nuclear program, with Russia and China emerging as critical intermediaries. But the fact that the Big 5 powers were able to come up with a compromise agreement on the issue is a huge setback for Tehran, and the time is very close when it will have to let it be known exactly what its nuclear aspirations are - and be ready for the consequences. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 1, '06)

China's veto power weighs heavy
China considers its energy supplies a matter of national security, and it cherishes its carefully crafted position as a peace broker on the Korean Peninsula. Depending on how Beijing uses its veto at the Security Council over Iran's nuclear dossier, these key policies could be threatened. (Feb 1, '06)

January 2006