May 2006

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The tangled web of US 'intelligence'
The US "intelligence community" of 16 known civilian and military agencies is a vast, bureaucratic landscape of fierce turf wars, power grabs, mini-empire building, squabbling, coups and purges. Yet the value of this community - which costs untold billions of dollars and continues to grow - and its "intelligence" is simply taken for granted. - Tom Engelhardt (May 31, '06)

Feeling comfortable in Damascus
So far, 2006 has been a pleasant year for Syria. Bogged down in Iraq and obsessed with Iran, the US no longer snipes at Damascus or makes veiled threats about regime change. Syria's influence in Palestine was enhanced by the victory of Hamas, and a new UN prosecutor takes a more balanced look at the Hariri affair. - Sami Moubayed (May 31, '06)

Al-Qaeda's long march to war
Al-Qaeda believes that it and its allies can only defeat the US in a "long war", one that allows the Islamists to capitalize on their extraordinary patience and their enemies' lack thereof. In this war, al-Qaeda envisions a "decisive stage" at which the mujahideen will develop semi-conventional forces. The recent large-unit action by the Taliban in southern Afghanistan may be a foretaste of this. - Michael Scheuer (May 30, '06)

Carrots, sticks and the isolation of Iran
The more that Germany, along with Britain and France a key interlocutor with Iran over its nuclear program, shows its ability to engage in creative diplomacy (the carrot) toward Tehran, the better the chances of a satisfactory resolution of the dragging crisis. At this critical juncture, though, trans-Atlantic considerations and US pressure (the stick) could undermine Berlin's best efforts. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May 26, '06)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Drifting down the path to perdition
Andrew Bacevich, a former military man who now is a vocal critic of US foreign policy, thinks US power is the problem, not the solution, in the post-Cold War order. Tom Engelhardt asks the author of The New American Militarism why Americans can't see that it's not freedom they want in the Middle East, but cheap oil. This is Part 2 of the interview. (May 26, '06)

The battle spreads in Afghanistan
The Taliban-led insurgency in south Afghanistan is the big news, with ongoing encounters claiming more than 300 lives in a week. This, though, is just the tip of the iceberg as influential players and tribal leaders in other parts of the country prepare to join all-out battle. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (May 25, '06)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The delusions of global hegemony, Part I
The conservative allies of Andrew Bacevich, Vietnam veteran and cultural conservative, fell in love with the idea of the American military and its imagined awesome power to change the world. Bacevich changed tack, and explains to Tom Engelhardt how the military has been made a scapegoat over the Iraq War, and tells of a possible campaign against Iran. (May 24, '06)

Iran oils its war machine
Independent provinces operating as self-contained military units, a switch to asymmetrical warfare and stockpiling in expectation of guerrilla warfare: these are just some of the measures being taken by Iran's military in case of a US strike. The US, in the meantime, is marshaling an alliance of Iran's Arab neighbors in the intensifying diplomatic face-off with Tehran. - Iason Athanasiadis (May 23, '06)

 Venezuela's F-16 flight of fancy
 

Yellow journalism and chicken hawks A report by a prominent neo-conservative journalist, Iranian-American Amir Taheri, asserting that Iranian authorities plan to make non-Muslims wear colored insignia marking them as such - with yellow for Jews, just as in Nazi Germany - has been happily picked up by various mainstream publications. The story has been widely rubbished, but it refuses to die. - Jim Lobe  Click here for the original article, "A color code for Iran's 'infidels'" (which has not been withdrawn by Benador Associates, the neo-con PR outfit for which Taheri writes). Amir Taheri addresses 'queries'  "On color schemes, however, there seems to be consensus ... Religious minorities would have their own color schemes. They will also have to wear special insignia ... Jews would be marked out with a yellow strip of cloth ..." This, Amir Taheri says in response to his critics, is just his "opinion", and anyone who thinks otherwise is "jumping the gun". Now he tells us. (May 23, '06)

BOOK REVIEW by SPENGLER
This time the crocodile won't wait
Londonistan by Melanie Phillips
Britain, the author warns, is reaping what it has sown. A large minority of British Muslims are disaffected at best and seditious at worst. The West inevitably faces a religious war with Islam, and this book provides indispensable background to why this is so, and why the warnings are unheeded, as were warnings in the leadup to World War II. (May 22, '06)

The 'Great Game' comes to South Asia
Despite past failures, Washington is recasting its policy by increasingly involving South Asia, especially India, in Central Asian affairs. The US paints a picture of mutual prosperity through an interconnecting web of energy pipelines, as long as these do not advance Russia's or China's interests. This is where the problems begin. - M K Bhadrakumar (May 23, '06)

The Israel lobby: How powerful is it really?
In a controversial essay, John Mearsheimer and Steve Walt assert that US policy in the Middle East is unduly influenced by the Israel lobby. In fact, the proponents of the American Empire and their allies in the US armaments industry don't need a foreign lobby to tell them to do what they are already inclined to do, in Israel's neighborhood or anywhere else in the world. (May 22, '06)

Iran: Don't mention 'talks'
The Bush administration's stated desire to hold direct talks with Iran over Iraq appears, according to recent reports, not to have lasted much longer than the time it takes to fly from Washington to Sydney. This does not bode well for the crisis over Tehran's nuclear program: the administration's refusal to meet with Iran is at the heart of the problem. - Gareth Porter (May 22, '06)

Iraq's cabinet falls short
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has cobbled together a cabinet that is much better than many people expected because it includes everybody: disgruntled Sunnis, ambitious Shi'ites, hardline Kurds, and women. But he has delayed filling the three most important security portfolios. Having promised to use "maximum force" to resolve Iraq's problems, this will be his true test. - Sami Moubayed (May 22, '06)

Taliban's new commander ready for a fight
The Taliban have a new military head, Jalaluddin Haqqani, a part of Afghanistan's folklore for his exploits against the Soviets. Armed with fresh funds, arms and a steady supply of jihadis trained in Iraq, his forces this week launched their biggest attack in the country since the Taliban were ousted. And such is Haqqani's pull, warlords and others previously neutral are flocking to his cause. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (May 19, '06)

Basra: Britain's Mesopotamian mess revisited
Once welcomed as liberators from the hated Saddam Hussein, the British army now faces the real possibility of ignominious defeat in the restive southern Iraqi city of Basra, as the rebel-cleric Muqtada al-Sadr firms up his presence there. The British have been in trouble here before, but this time there are plenty of other players just as unhappy at what is happening in Basra. - Sami Moubayed (May 19, '06)

Iran: Russia, China drift Washington's way
Slowly Russia and China, supposedly hardline opponents of any US-UN sanctions against Iran, seem to be moving part-way toward an accommodation with Washington. Perhaps they realize that an uncompromising stance on Iran will permanently damage relations with the US. But there may be good reasons to stop the drift. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May 18, '06)

Ahmadinejad: A study in obstinacy
As a youngster kicking a soccer ball, as a student at university and as he worked his way up the political ladder before coming Iran's president, Mahmud Ahmadinejad displayed a consistently obstinate and principled streak. "Mahmud has not changed in 30 years," a longtime friend of Ahmadinejad's tells Iason Athanasiadis. And he doesn't back down easily. (May 18, '06)

Taliban steps up spring offensive
Fighting between Taliban insurgents and Afghan government forces has escalated. The latest attack in the south left more than 70 Taliban and police dead. In a desperate move, President Hamid Karzai has renewed an amnesty offer to the Taliban, but it's unlikely to stop the offensive. (May 18, '06)

The Iraqi resistance: 'Why we fight'
The reasons the Iraqi resistance continues to fight are pretty basic. Abu Ayoub watched as his brother was gunned down by a foreign soldier. At that moment he picked up a weapon, and vows not to put it down until the foreign occupiers leave Iraq for good. "They came here by force, and they will never leave except by force." (May 18, '06)

The mother of all US bombs
The already formidable US arsenal is being expanded, again, with such things as compact super-precision bombs that could reduce "collateral damage", of inanimate objects as well as people. But also due for testing is a 600-ton - that's right, ton - pack of conventional explosives. Some say the test will be rigged to fail, justifying "more reliable" nuclear bombs. (May 18, '06)

The new power behind Osama's throne
Osama bin Laden is said to be no longer the driving force behind al-Qaeda's operations. He remains an inspiration, buthas been superseded in the leadership role by the Taliban's Mullah Omar, supporters in the rugged Hindu Kush mountains that span Pakistan and Afghanistan tell Syed Saleem Shahzad. In the face of a funding crunch, Omar is waging open jihad and the underground networks are inactive. (May 17, '06)

INTERVIEW
Dissent and defection: An Iranian confession
A prominent defector from the Iranian opposition group Mujahideen-e-Khalq says the organization turned its back on its original guiding principles - freedom, independence, progress, democracy and Islam - and transformed itself into a cult and a hand-maiden to Iran's enemies in the United States. - Mahan Abedin (May 17, '06)

Osama is back in American crosshairs
The focal point in the "war on terror" has shifted to the maze of mountains and rivers that stretches from remote Chitral in Pakistan to the Kunar Valley across the border in eastern Afghanistan. As always, the prime target is Osama bin Laden. Syed Saleem Shahzad visits the area and learns of US and Pakistani preparations for an offensive that could set the region alight. (May 16, '06)

SPEAKING FREELY
Iraq's oil: A neo-con dream gone bust
The neo-conservatives had great expectations of the bonanza that would come from invading Iraq and overthrowing Saddam Hussein: lower oil prices, undermining Iran and Saudi Arabia, and busting OPEC. Today oil prices are at record highs, OPEC still stands, and Iran and Saudi Arabia have more leverage than ever. - Peter Kiernan (May 16, '06)

CIA abduction? Sorry, that's a secret
The once-rare "state secrets" privilege, a Cold War relic designed to protect US national security in court cases, has been applied frequently since September 2001. And the Bush administration is trying to use it once again to avoid trial in a lawsuit filed by a German citizen apparently kidnapped in Macedonia by the CIA, locked up in Afghanistan, and then dumped on a hill in Albania. (May 16, '06)

From jailbird to jihadi
Where do the killing fields of Iraq and Afghanistan get their jihadi cannon fodder? Maybe from the swollen prisons of Arab governments supposedly friendly to the US. For these cynical governments, releasing prisoners is a double bonus: the former inmates kill a few infidels, and then they are often killed themselves. (May 15, '06)

Iran and Turkey fire salvo over Iran
Turkey and Iran have found a common enemy in the Kurdish Workers' Party, a paramilitary outfit with bases in northern Iraq that preaches Kurdish nationalism. Ankara and Tehran have both taken the fight into Iraqi territory, thereby notifying Washington and Baghdad that an axis is forming against moves toward Kurdish autonomy. The already fractious domestic political scene is further complicated by the new alliance. - Sami Moubayed (May 12, '06)

Iranian nukes not the real issue
If Iran's nuclear program were the core of its problem with the US, why did Washington reject a 2003 proposal by a worried and concession-minded Tehran to negotiate? Iran's advances were spurned because it stood in the way of the neo-conservative vision of a new Middle East. The Bush administration decided to play hardball, and Tehran responded in kind. - Gareth Porter (May 12, '06)

Tehran gets a sanctions reprieve - for now
Hard diplomacy by the US predictably failed to get the united front needed to brand Iran a threat to world peace. It remains to be seen whether a softer line of "carrots" will be more successful. It is even questionable whether such terms as "carrots" and "sticks" belong in the vocabulary of diplomats. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May 12, '06)

COMMENTARY
Indonesia faults on tennis diplomacy
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s attempt to mediate in the Iranian nuclear dispute has vaporized. But he’s got a second serve that could build Indonesia’s credibility as a bridge between the Muslim world and the West. - Gary LaMoshi (May 12, '06)

Iran finds an ally in Indonesia
In a nuanced shift, Iran is steering the debate over its nuclear program away from the issue of proliferation to one about who has the right to control access to advanced technology. President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's visit to Indonesia is all about finding allies to advance this theme, and to do a little business on the side. (May 11, '06)

Kurds finally get unified government
Ten years after signing a peace accord in Washington, the two main Kurdish political parties have formed a government in northern Iraq. Kurds have become increasingly dissatisfied with their government, with poor services and alarming levels of corruption. Now, they want to see how the new parliament can change their lives. (May 11, '06)

The letter: An opening quickly sealed
Officials in the US have been quick to dismiss and deride the letter that Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad sent to US President George W Bush, as mere "philosophical" narrative that does not "engage the issues". Strange, as the letter covers a whole array of international issues, including Iran's right to civilian nuclear technology. Any hope that Bush might connect with the inter-religious subtext of the letter is probably vain as well: there's unlikely to be any White House response to the diplomatic opening the letter provides. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May 10, '06)

To George Bush, President ...
President Ahmadinejad's letter to President Bush may be a lecture in ethics; an indictment of American foreign policy; the musings of one religious politician to another; an olive branch or a ploy to change the subject from the UN debate over Tehran's nuclear program. You decide. Click here for the full text of the letter. (May 10, '06)

Suez ripples 50 years after crisis
The Suez Crisis, approaching its 50th anniversary, is sparking comparisons between Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser and Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad over their defiance of the West. Much as with Britain and France five decades ago, the United States' limits of power are being tested. - Ronan Thomas (May 10, '06)

Portents: The coming end of the CIA
Will the new director of the Central Intelligence Agency stem the seemingly inexorable flow of intelligence gathering and covert operations to the Department of Defense, or will he accelerate the trend? That is the fundamental issue behind the shakeup at the CIA. In the long term it involves the very survival of the agency. - Jim Lobe (May 9, '06)

COMMENTARY
Time to redefine the Middle East
Too often, the people of the Middle East have been defined by their conquerors, first the Europeans and then the Americans. Not surprisingly, they were depicted as violent, fractious, uncivilized. It is time they define themselves according to their own terms and aspirations. - Ramzy Baroud (May 9, '06)

The US's geopolitical nightmare
The Bush administration was given a chance to deliver on the US strategic goal of controlling energy resources globally. It has failed, as it is failing over Iran, with US antagonism driving rival countries into one another's arms. The administration has also lost its way in protecting US hegemony, as espoused by the Bush Doctrine, especially with regard to China and Russia. It's potentially the greatest strategic defeat for US power projection since World War II. - F William Engdahl (May 8, '06)

Cheney puts Moscow to the hardness test
The Russians chose to ignore US Vice President Dick Cheney's diatribe in Vilnius, Lithuania. They can afford to, since increasingly Moscow is holding big cards in the game of geopolitics. Their deals with Europe are weakening the trans-Atlantic alliance, while energy deals are bringing Russia and China closer. - M K Bhadrakumar (May 8, '06)

THE ROVING EYE
Iran impasse: Make gas, not bombs
Iran's national interests are best served by selling portions of its huge natural gas reserves to energy-starved Europe, not in building an atomic bomb. Europe's best interests are served by lessening dependence on Russian gas. The mullahs in Tehran seem to understand this; now it's a matter of pounding some sense into other factions. - Pepe Escobar (May 8, '06)

A daunting task ahead for next CIA chief
Porter Goss's resignation as chief of the US Central Intelligence Agency is rooted in President George W Bush's aim to coordinate and streamline America's numerous intelligence-gathering agencies. But the real winner in this shakeup may be none other than Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. - Ehsan Ahrari (May 8, '06)

Iraq at 'kingmaker' Muqtada's mercy
With the Iraqi parliament deciding to distribute cabinet posts along sectarian lines, the power grab for the 32 portfolios has begun. Muqtada al-Sadr has demanded that his faction receive half of the 14 positions allocated for Shi'ites (no surprises, they're positions that will bolster his popular standing). If Prime Minister-designate Nuri al-Maliki bows to his ally, the government is doomed - as it is if Maliki refuses Muqtada. - Sami Moubayed (May 5, '06)

Party on at Saddam's palace
Saddam Hussein would be surprised to see that his Republican Palace grounds are now home to karaoke, beer parties, volleyball and bikini-clad US Embassy staff. All this takes place in the comfort and safety of the Green Zone, where the largest US embassy is under construction, while outside lies unstable Baghdad. - Iason Athanasiadis (May 5, '06)

Beyond the bluster: Iran at a crossroads
Iran's controversial president may not "give a damn" about the possibility of international sanctions, but there is little doubt that increased pressure - either from the UN or a US-led coalition of the willing - will hurt Iran. What is needed is a return to the more balanced foreign policy of the 1990s, not the isolation of the 1980s. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May 5, '06)

Thai detention camps feed insurgency
The Thai government's policy of detaining Muslim militant suspects without filing formal charges is aimed at "re-educating" them about the insurgency in the country's deep south. Instead, the likelihood of the conflict escalating has been increased. (May 5, '06)

It's showdown time in Pakistan
As the Taliban and al-Qaeda go from strength to strength, using the Pakistani tribal areas as a base, the US wants President General Pervez Musharraf to once and for all bomb them out of existence. The Pakistani army now has a blueprint for such an attack. But the Taliban have their own blueprint: it starts with Afghanistan, and ends with a global call to jihadis to eliminate the "Crusader and Zionist-backed Musharraf". - Syed Saleem Shahzad (May 4, '06)

Under fire: US's misguided missile defense
T he Central Intelligence Agency warns that weapons of mass destruction are mostly likely to enter the US through its ports, yet Washington's $600 billion defense budget spends four times more on a (failed) missile defense system than on port security. This absurdity must stop, says a group of policy analysts. - Jim Lobe (May 4, '06)

A new weapon in the 'war of ideas'
A global war of ideas is set to begin and Anglo-American dominance of international TV news about to end. With Al-Jazeera about to launch English international news coverage, and a global Islamic channel likely to follow, the US and Britain will have to compete hard to promote their version of reality and truth. - Ehsan Ahrari (May 3, '06)

Peddling democracy the US way
Since World War II, the US has been involved in more than 200 military operations to provide others with democracy. Not one democratic government came about as a direct result, and several dictators were born. With such a record, the debacle in Iraq could have been expected: all the US has achieved is to guarantee that Iraqis will hate it for years. - Chalmers Johnson (May 3, '06)

Two can play the realpolitik game
With Iran, the Bush administration is working from the Iraq playbook - demonizing its leader, hyping the "threat" to neighboring countries, flexing its military might. So why is Tehran toying with the lion? It turns out that in the game known as "realpolitik", Iran has some cards of its own to play. - Ramzy Baroud (May 3, '06)

Iran stands in the way of US designs
The crisis over Iran's nuclear program is not so much about Iran itself. What those in the Bush administration, the Israeli government and the bipartisan leadership in the US Congress are really concerned about is protecting the hegemonic interests of the US and its junior partner, Israel, not stopping the proliferation of nuclear weapons. (May 3, '06)

That old-time geopolitics is back
From the energy-rich Gulf of Guinea, across the Islamic Middle East to Central Asia, the Bush administration is dropping its democratic pretences in favor of stability and the ability of strategically placed countries to further the interests of the US, especially those related to oil and gas. - Jim Lobe (May 2, '06)

BOOK REVIEW
The loose supercannon
The Age of War: The United States Confronts the World, by Gabriel Kolko

This is no anti-Bush rant. In fact it goes surprisingly easy on the US president. Military adventurism, foreign policy debacles, even the doctrine of preemption are not Bush inventions, but have been features of 55 years of US bungling around the world. Now Bush is facing the consequences, while demonstrating that he too has learned nothing from history and can bungle with the best of them. - Allen Quicke (May 2, '06)

In Iraq, chaos by another name
Iraqi Prime Minister Jawad al-Maliki has changed his name to Nuri al-Maliki, incidentally taking the first name of strongman Nuri al-Said, who ruled for 28 years. Maliki faces a job today, however, that is more difficult and challenging than anything his namesake ever experienced. And he simply does not have the tools or the authority to stop the chaos. - Sami Moubayed (May 2, '06)

The case against sanctions on Iran
The legal justification for a permanent suspension of Iran's enrichment-related activities under the terms of the non-proliferation regime, as well as the imposition of sanctions by the United Nations, is simply absent. Hence the increasing talk of punishment "outside the UN" by a "coalition of the willing" - a move that would only bring out the worst in Iran. -Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May 1, '06)

SPENGLER
Why war comes when no one wants it
Neither Washington nor Tehran wants military confrontation. Nevertheless it will come, just as many great wars came despite the desire of the belligerents to avoid them. If Washington delays, it will risk a conflagration in the Middle East at least as terrible as the one that hit Europe in 1914. (May 1, '06)

Iranians cry in the wilderness
Last week, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad indicated that he was open to talks with Washington, continuing a trend begun last year by Iranian leaders calling for direct negotiations with the US on Tehran's nuclear program, and other issues. All requests have been met with a deafening silence. - Gareth Porter (May 1, '06)

April 2006