June 2006

BOOK REVIEW
Calling Americans back to greatness

The Good Fight: Why Liberals - and Only Liberals - Can Win the War on Terror and Make America Great Again by Peter Beinart

Overthrow: America's Century of Regime Change From Hawaii to Iraq by Stephen Kinzer

The fundamental divide over US foreign policy is not between left and right, but between those who subscribe to the myth of the "American Century" and those who don't. Author Peter Beinart misinterprets the US's intentions for saving the world. In comparison, Stephen Kinzer's book rightly states that regime change to serve its own self-interests has long been a mainstay of American statecraft. - Andrew J Bacevich (Jun  30, '06)

Fool me once, fool me twice
In October 2002 the US Congress voted to surrender to the president its constitutional duties with regard to declaring war on Iraq. Now, some in the administration assert that the resolution is so worded that the president can launch a war on Iran without getting further congressional assent. And once again, Congress has rolled over. (Jun 29, '06)

The US proxies who haunt Washington
The CIA is under fire for failing to understand the bloody conflict in Somalia as well as backing the losing side. While the US has occasionally enjoyed brief success in such proxy wars, those they have supported often have come back to haunt them. Still, global strategy dictates that the enemy of an enemy is a friend. - Jason Motlagh (Jun 28, '06)

SPENGLER
'Prisoner's dilemma' for Tehran
As US Republicans nervously eye the calendar and congressional elections get nearer, and Tehran nervously watches the situation in Iraq, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has no choice but to play for time, and the White House no choice but to feign impatience. It's an unstable game that cannot last. The result: August will be a very interesting month. (Jun 26, '06)

Fallujah: A city still under siege
Eighteen months after the battle, Fallujah is still a mess. Two thirds of the former population has returned, but nearly two thirds of homes are still destroyed. Security and corruption eat up reconstruction funds, while residents scrounge to buy food. Don't bother complaining to the mayor. He just resigned. (Jun 26, '06)

Hollow US defense for an empty threat
The US is activating its missile defense system in response to North Korea possibly test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile, presuming it even has one to fire. Pyongyang has nothing to fear. The multibillion-dollar US program is years away from readiness to intercept anything but another billion dollars. - David Isenberg (Jun 23, '06)

North Korea means business over missiles
Optimistically, North Korea might be dissuaded from launching its Taepodong 2 missile for fear that failure - or interception - could set back its missile export program, worth in excess of $1.5 billion a year. Whatever happens, missile research and development will remain Pyongyang's top priority. - Donald Kirk (Jun 23, '06)

Iran plays by its own rules
With Iran taking its own time in responding to the "carrots" offered by the US and the European Union over its nuclear program, it has nevertheless signaled its readiness for negotiations with Washington. All the same, Tehran has begun playing its "energy card". - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun 23, '06)

Muslims, Westerners: Same, same
Westerners tend to perceive Muslims as selfish, violent and fanatical. Muslims in the Middle East tend to perceive Westerners as selfish, violent and fanatical, according to a major new survey. European Muslims, who hold the most tolerant views, could be a bridge between the two groups. - Jim Lobe (Jun 23, '06)

The changing face of al-Qaeda resistance
With the resistances in Iraq and Afghanistan both under new command, changes are being rung. In Iraq, al-Qaeda is using the contacts and expertise of Abu Hamza al-Muhajir to draw insurgent groups under one wing. In Afghanistan, Jalaluddin Haqqani has adopted a classic hide-and-seek approach to tackle occupation forces. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jun 22, '06)

US: Danger, danger everywhere
Whenever the US has started to move from a wartime footing to a period of demilitarization or increased isolationist sentiment, foreign-policy hawks in both parties have organized fear-mongering campaigns to stop the slide in support for the military and to expand the global reach of US troops and weapons. Since World War II, two Committees on the Present Danger have proved highly successful. The third committee, capitalizing on the "war on terror", is having a harder time in propagating its alarmist vision. (Jun 22, '06)

Iran: US opts for regime change, not force
The Bush administration rattles sabers and cranks out rhetoric, but it has already decided that it will not use military force to try to prevent Iran from going nuclear. In Washington's eyes, Tehran also sponsors terrorism; threatens Israel; thwarts Middle East peace; disrupts democracy in Iraq; and denies the aspirations of its people. There is only one response to this: regime change. - Gareth Porter (Jun 21, '06)

A third option in the nuclear standoff
Between the opposing options of full suspension of Iran's nuclear cycle and no suspension, there is an alternative based on the US's experiment with one of its enrichment facilities. This would entail placing the Natanz facility "on cold standby" for the duration of proposed multilateral talks. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun 21, '06) 

Facade of Shi'ite unity crumbles
It is often assumed that the Shi'ites of Iraq are united in their loyalty to neighboring Iran. The recent storming of Tehran's consulate in Basra, a Shi'ite stronghold, puts that notion to rest. Further, the incident underscores a potentially fatal rift within the ranks of Iraqi Shi'ites. - Sami Moubayed (Jun 21, '06)

Japan's face-saving exit from Iraq
Tokyo on Tuesday ended one of the worst-kept secrets of international diplomacy by announcing the withdrawal of its 600 non-combat troops from Iraq. The "mission accomplished" exit is of some embarrassment to the US, but Tokyo has pledged to make it up by spending heavily on Iraq's reconstruction. - Hisane Masaki (Jun 20, '06)

Iraq: The beat goes on and on
Many argue that the American project in Iraq is doomed. They have their heads in the clouds. The answer to the crucial question of whether President George W Bush's stay-the-course strategy can succeed is: Yes, it can. There is no reason to doubt his assertions that he will do whatever it takes to achieve victory, however long it takes and whatever the cost. - Robert Dreyfuss (Jun 19, '06)

Once more up the Khyber
As a spearhead of 3,300 British troops begins to make a "footprint" in the troubled Afghan province of Helmand, the choices military commanders face, whether to "butcher and bolt" or adopt a "forward policy", remain as relevant as they were more than 100 years ago. - Ronan Thomas (Jun 19, '06)

Bush hitches political star to Iraq
US presidential adviser Karl Rove follows a well-known political strategy: when on the defensive - attack. It is clear that President George W Bush and Republicans will embrace Iraq rather than run away from it in the looming congressional election. Recent developments in Iraq give Bush some encouragement. - Jim Lobe (Jun 16, '06)

Taliban's jihad call answered in Pakistan
The US-led campaign in Afghanistan muted large swaths of pro-Taliban people across the border in Pakistan. However, since the Taliban's spring offensive, their biggest since losing power in 2001, former supporters in their thousands are once again answering the call for jihad. Previously neutral Pakistani politicians, too, with immeasurable clout in the volatile area, are now raising the Taliban battle cry. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jun 15, '06)

COMMENT
Baghdad's unwelcome visitor
President George W Bush is eagerly looking for a magic potion to cure the Iraqi malady. His flying trip to Baghdad is one such quest. For Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, though, who had just five minutes' notice of the visit, it is not likely to help at all. -Ehsan Ahrari (Jun 14, '06)

Meet the new leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq
Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, named as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's successor to lead al-Qaeda in Iraq, has leaped from deep obscurity to very near the top of America's hit list. Completely  unknown to intelligence agencies, he is described as "a ghost" with "no picture or identity". Nevertheless, Asia Times Online sources confirm he is a real person, and a picture is emerging of a 40-year-old intellectual who hitherto has not been a hands-on killer. - Sami Moubayed (Jun 13, '06)

US opens new war front in North Africa
The US has opened a new front in the "war on terror" with an initiative directed at Saharan North Africa. The main target is the Salafist Group for Call and Combat based in Algeria. This jihadist organization had been hobbled by the region's dictatorships but has now turned its attention to the softer underbelly of Europe. - Jason Motlagh (Jun 13, '06)

Indonesia strikes back at Islamic hardliners
Indonesia's Islamic extremists have been using violence as a first resort against their opponents, often with a wink from authorities. But last month they went too far when they attacked former president Abdurrahman Wahid, provoking the Yudhoyono administration to unleash a counter-offensive. - Gary LaMoshi (Jun 13, '06)

What Egypt could learn from Southeast Asia
Indonesia learned the hard way that stalling political reform for "stability" just postpones the inevitable. Egypt should take a leaf from Indonesia's book, stop making excuses, and move rapidly toward democracy. Southeast Asia's Muslim nations have learned it's a mistake to think that delaying reform holds radical Islamists at bay. - Michael Vatikiotis (Jun 13, '06)

COMMENTARY
A strategic game on Iraq
The Bush administration's summit on revamping its Iraqi strategy smacks of a public relations exercise. The chief problem is the United States' sustained presence in Iraq, and as long as pulling out is not an option, nothing will change. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jun 13, '06)

The New American Century: Rest in peace
All the signs are there: the cabal started nine years ago by 27 proponents of a militant new "pax Americana", and which was a key instigator of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, is winding down, albeit with a "goal accomplished" spin. The neo-conservative Project for a New American Century is being torn apart by internal disagreements over everything from the competence of Donald Rumsfeld to US policy on Iran. - Jim Lobe (Jun 13, '06)

Iraqi instability washes over neighbors
A turbulent Iraq will continue to feed the instability of its immediate neighborhood, despite the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. This instability is holding back efforts by the US-Jordan-Israel nexus to impose its will on regional affairs. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jun 12, '06)

The day the US took a beating over Iran
The Bush administration had to accept a package of incentives offered to Iran over its nuclear program that lacked the threat of UN Security Council action - a threat that Washington had counted on. Russia and China were having none of it. It was a major defeat, but it doesn't rule out military action against Iran - it just makes it that much more difficult. - Gareth Porter (Jun 12, '06)

A leap of faith for Iran and the US
The Bush administration has made a major concession in the package of incentives offered to Iran, and Tehran is beginning to question the wisdom of risking "practically everything" for the sake of nuclear technology. Both sides are entering uncharted waters. How they proceed will shift the tectonic plates of geopolitics in the great landmass of Eurasia. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun 9, '06)

A death, and a flicker of hope in Iraq
There were compelling reasons for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to die, from the viewpoint of some of his al-Qaeda colleagues as well as of Washington and the Iraqi government. With him out of the way, and with the national unity government finally complete after the filling of important security posts, Iraq has a rare opportunity to tackle the insurgency. But with the chief catalyst of sectarian conflict dead, the insurgents may concentrate their efforts against the occupiers, rather than killing themselves. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jun 9, '06)

Bin Laden, football fever and the art of war
Legend has it that football is one of Osama bin Laden's guilty pleasures, so it's a safe bet he'll be watching the World Cup games involving his fancied teams (Saudi Arabia, Tunisia?), along with billions of others gripped by the "beautiful game". The month-long extravaganza offers a snapshot not only of a world in conflict, but also of the possibilities of resolution by means other than war. - Tony Karon (Jun 9, '06)

BOOK REVIEW
Legend of Arabia
The Osama bin Laden I Know: An Oral History of al Qaeda's Leader by Peter Bergen
Peter Bergen, one of the world's leading experts on terrorism, has written a thorough oral history of the most famous Arab since Gamal Abdel Nasser. Bergen sees him as a living legend, but still a man whose aim of setting off a clash of civilizations has not materialized. - Sreeram Chaulia (Jun 9, '06)

Death of Zarqawi: George gets his dragon
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the terrorist mastermind who was everywhere and nowhere, and almost single-handedly responsible for every evil in Iraq since the US invasion, has finally been killed. His death will give a sorely needed tinge of triumph to the American occupation, and it will undoubtedly change Iraq's political landscape. But for how long and how? Many believe that Zarqawi's importance was overblown; others predict his demise will actually unify the insurgency. - Sami Moubayed (Jun 8, '06)

Bin Laden's jihadi spring
Osama bin Laden's relevance as leader of al-Qaeda is under question, at least in the Western media. Yet al-Qaeda is doing exactly what bin Laden has said it should: keep a tight focus on what the US does in the Islamic world to instigate Muslims to join the anti-US jihad. In this it is increasingly successful worldwide. - Michael Scheuer (Jun 8, '06)

The oil weapon and Iran
A lot of loose talk surrounds the use of the "oil weapon" in any confrontation with Iran. But there are risks for both sides should oil be dragged into an imbroglio. If the West boycotts Iran, prices would spike, hurting the global economy. But petroleum reserves would help the West ride out any move by Tehran to take its oil off the market. - Peter Kiernan (Jun 8, '06)

Taliban take the fight to the country
The Taliban-led resistance has intensified, and is expanding from its southern strongholds into a "mass mutiny" across Afghanistan, a Taliban commander active in the insurgency tells Syed Saleem Shahzad. This is not mere bombast. Independent reports support his claims that the battle for the hearts and minds of the country is being won by the Taliban. (Jun 8, '06)

Iran's lurking enemy within
In Iran it is often assumed there is no real ethnic problem. This is a delusion. An upsurge of ethnic unrest highlights serious vulnerabilities in the intelligence system. These deficiencies lay the country open to exploitation by Western powers, weaken Iran's position over its nuclear program, and could even lead to territorial breakup. - Mahan Abedin (Jun 7, '06)

Foreign plots and cartoon cockroaches
Authorities in Tehran were quick to blame unrest in the predominantly Azeri northwestern region on a foreign plot aimed at disrupting Iran's efforts to acquire nuclear technology. This might be stretching the point, but Iran is certainly worried about Azerbaijan, its resurgent oil-rich, US-friendly neighbor, fomenting trouble. - Iason Athanasiadis (Jun 7, '06)

PART 5 The politics of indignation The architects of the West's response to September 11, 2001, are feeling angst because it is slowly dawning on them that they got the "war on terrorism" all wrong, misled, perhaps, by mistaken analogies to the collapse of Soviet communism. So far they have not absorbed what Islamic revivalists are saying. - Mark Perry and Alastair Crooke (Jun 7, '06)

US caught in Iran policy squeeze
The spin that the US is putting on its Iran "initiative" and the growing misconceptions this is causing has been subjected to a detailed clarification by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. In essence, he has exposed the hollowness of the US policy and Washington's lack of options in the face of its increasing isolation. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun 6, '06)

Gulf widens between US and sheikhdoms
The Arab "protectorates" of the Persian Gulf are increasingly leery of their "protector". Many now wish they had taken the opportunity to form a collective security arrangement that included Iran rather than depend solely on the US. (Jun 6, '06)

Marines on the beat in Iraq
US marines based in al-Qaim, a cluster of towns and villages along the Euphrates River on Iraq's border with Syria, are being taught to think more like police officers on the beat in their efforts to control insurgents. They tell Charles Crain the tactic is working. But it might be too little too late. (Jun 6, '06)

My Lai to Haditha, wars' turning points
The killing of 24 Iraqi civilians in Haditha in November by US Marines and the subsequent coverup will prove to be a turning point for the US's war in Iraq, much as the My Lai massacre shaped the Vietnam War. And new Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will exploit Haditha to get back at the Americans for bullying him and for withdrawing support from the Shi'ites. - Sami Moubayed (Jun 5, '06)

SPENGLER
Military destiny and madness in Iran
Both US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki sincerely believe that a compromise is in their mutual interest. Nonetheless, they will fail - for Iran is driven by strategic mysticism, and when there is no retreat, nothing to which to return, the army leaves its trenches and flies forward into the cannons. (Jun 5, '06)

US 'allies' keep Iran options open
Bush administration officials claim that Russia and China have "agreed privately" to turn the screws on Iran over its nuclear program and the US offer for direct talks. But the position of Moscow and Beijing on the legal grounds for sanctions and military enforcement measures against Tehran will continue to frustrate the US. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun 5, '06)

PART 4 Acts of faith The genius of neo-conservatism in the US is that its adherents have an unshakable faith that they are right. Thus opposing views to their vision of a secular Middle East based on Turkey's model are dismissed as "babbling". The voices of Islam, though, while they may be exiled from the halls of government, cannot be banished from the street or the mosque. - Mark Perry and Alastair Crooke (Jun 5, '06)

Rabbit and carrot: US turns tables on Tehran
The United States has pulled a rabbit out of its nearly empty diplomatic hat by offering direct talks with Iran, in a superb maneuver that puts Tehran on the defensive. Tehran, of course, has rejected Washington's precondition for talks, yet if it rejects all the "carrots" currently being thrown at it, it will lose the battle for world public opinion and strengthen the US's hand when the "stick" comes into play again. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun 2, '06)

Tehran wants more than talks
There is little doubt that, despite its vague language, the six-power agreement to engage Iran in an attempt to resolve the nuclear issue peacefully is a major development. Now what is urgently needed is that Washington and Tehran start talking. But first Iran would want some ironclad guarantees of its own from Washington, especially over security. - Ehsan Ahrari (Jun 2, '06)

The day that changed Afghanistan
Afghan President Hamid Karzai is winning all the petty political skirmishes in Kabul. Yet the seminal anti-Karzai, anti-US riots in the capital on Monday clearly illustrate that he is losing the big battle, and confirm that fundamental changes are occurring in Afghan political alignments. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun 2, '06)

Iraq: Alas in wonderland
Seen through the US and British looking glass, Iraq is soon to become a wondrous, happy place, and troop withdrawal is definitely in the cards. Yet the new Iraqi government is no more than a collection of sectarian fiefdoms masquerading as ministries, and the people are racing toward emerging fault lines. To all other tribulations must be added the specter of ethnic cleansing. - Ashraf Fahim (Jun 1, '06)

     Independence still a Kurdish priority

May 2006