September 2006

Afghanistan: Why NATO cannot win
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is scrambling to pull in more troops in the face of stiff Taliban resistance in Afghanistan. But throwing soldiers at the problem won't make it go away - as the Soviets learned. The central issue is that from the outset five years ago, the US has failed to come up with a winning military and political strategy in Afghanistan. NATO is getting a bloody nose as a result. - M K Bhadrakumar (Sep 29, '06)

Afghan military policy 'barking mad'
"A textbook case of how to screw up a counterinsurgency." So says a British captain who resigned in disgust over military tactics in Afghanistan. His is not a lone voice: it is in tune with growing warnings that military operations have to go hand-in-hand with development. (Sep 29, '06)

Iraq: Republic of fear

The much-debated US National Intelligence Estimate, while dealing the Bush administration a telling blow, does not call for a US withdrawal from Iraq. That's the good news for Washington. Improving the lot of Iraqis, who now live under a horror every bit as bad as the Saddam era, is the hard part. - Sami Moubayed (Sep 29, '06)

Dumbed-down intelligence
The significance of the leaked US National Intelligence Estimate is not that it
contains any earth-shattering information, but that it underscores a well-known fact that President George W Bush refuses to acknowledge - that Iraq has become the "cause celebre" of global jihadis. Now the report is submerged in a cacophony of political point-scoring, none of which is going to save Iraq or make the US safer. - Ehsan Ahrari (Sep 28, '06)

An alternative way forward for the US
More than 400 bipartisan members of the US foreign-policy elite have come up with a comprehensive new national security strategy blueprint for the US. The report suggests that the policies pursued by President George W Bush have been simplistic - even counter-productive - and offers an alternative to hard power. - Jim Lobe (Sep 28, '06)

Cashing in on the fear factor
There's a widespread belief that the Bush administration deliberately manipulated oil prices down ahead of mid-term elections, by suddenly softening its line on Tehran, for example. What drove prices up in the first place was fear - fear about a clash with Iran and the spread of war to other oil producers in the Middle East. Expect such fears to be stoked again after the elections. - Michael T Klare (Sep 27, '06)

Mini-gulags, hired guns and lobbyists
After the closure of Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq, many of its prisoners have been moved to the just-completed US$60 million Camp Cropper detention facility. The camp, along with the United States' permanent bases in Iraq and its contractors, hired guns and lobbyists, represents something that has been created without the trappings of debate, democracy, media coverage or checks and balances. - Tom Engelhardt (Sep 27, '06)

The whitewash of Sunni resistance
The US has it that Sunni fighters in restive al-Anbar province in Iraq are now a part of the solution, rather than the problem. This is simply not true. While many Sunni tribal leaders have committed to fight al-Qaeda, they are as fiercely determined as ever to fighting US-led forces as well. - Gareth Porter (Sep 27, '06)

The diminishing Iraq war dividend
Iraq's oil was to pay for the US invasion of the country, and US troops were to have all but left by 2003. Instead, the US Army is demanding billions of dollars more, as well as thousands more troops. And this comes as intelligence reports say that the major result of the war has been to invigorate Islamic radicalism worldwide and make the US less safe. - Jim Lobe (Sep 26, '06)

Caught in the Osama obsession
Reports (unconfirmed) of Osama bin Laden's death have once again surfaced. His demise would certainly give the Bush administration a welcome fillip, but the fate of the "war on terror" lies in Afghanistan and Iraq. - Ehsan Ahrari (Sep 25, '06)

US troops in Iraq are Tehran's 'hostages'
Shi'ite leader Muqtada al-Sadr's militia has grown into a formidable force - far too big for the US to engage directly. Indeed, it's more a question of Muqtada holding back his men. There's likely an Iranian hand in play: the occupation soldiers are virtual hostages against a US attack on Iran. - Gareth Porter (Sep 21, '06)

War drums and peace pipes
One minute the Bush administration is talking of diplomacy as the only way to deal with the crisis over Tehran's nuclear program; the next minute one reads of elaborate plans having already been drawn up by the Pentagon for a war against Iran. Whether this two-pronged approach is by accident or design is not clear, but the chances of a miscalculation by confused leaders in Tehran are all the greater. - Jim Lobe (Sep 21, '06)

America's Africa Corps
The US is considering setting up an Africa Command to secure the rear flank of its "global war on terrorism", adding to the five military commands it maintains. Its purpose would be to watch over vital oil reserves and lawless areas where terrorists have sought safe haven to regroup. - Jason Motlagh (Sep 20, '06)

Iraq: Trying to spin the unspinnable
The Bush administration's stepped-up campaign to put a positive spin on the catalogue of doom in Iraq is making no headway against the increasing skepticism of American voters. The consequences of its invasion are now so transparently catastrophic that Iraq has become the central issue for the mid-term elections and Republican control of Congress is threatened. - Ashraf Fahim (Sep 19, '06)

COMMENT
Et tu, pontiff?
Pope Benedict XVI certainly knows a lot about Catholicism, but despite his reputation as a religious scholar, he evidently knows very little about Islam, and even less about establishing good relations between his Church and the ummah. The pope's recent performance in Regensburg did great damage to the work established by his predecessor, John Paul II. - Ehsan Ahrari (Sep 19, '06)

SPENGLER
Jihad, the Lord's Supper, and eternal life
Pope Benedict XVI's denunciation of jihad on theological grounds is a blow at the foundations of Islam, in effect a papal call for the conversion of Muslims. The Islamic world now views the pontiff as an existential threat, for jihad is the fundamental sacrament of Islam, the Muslim cognate of the Lord's Supper in Christianity, that is, the unique form of sacrifice by which the believer attains eternal life. (Sep 18, '06)

Iran keeps Syria on side - for now
Iran has declared that it will not stand by and watch the US launch any military action against Syria, and Tehran and Damascus have recently increased military and intelligence cooperation. All the same, there is the nagging doubt that Syria could be sacrificed in any possible deal between Iran and the West. -Iason Athanasiadis (Sep 18, '06)

Why sanctions against Iran will fail
US President George W Bush's call for multilateral sanctions against Tehran is misguided at best. Only through constructive engagement can Washington achieve a positive outcome. - Hossein Askari (Sep 18, '06)

In search of the Taliban's missing link
The Taliban-led resistance in Afghanistan is working better than ever before. This is not in dispute. What is a mystery is how the Taliban command not only evades capture, but precisely and accurately conveys orders to the battlefield. Crack this code, and US-led forces won't be chasing so many shadows. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Sep 15, '06)

Coaxing the unwilling
Questionable Pentagon methods of recruitment are resulting in "US ground forces increasingly made up of a motley mix of under-age teens, old-timers, foreign fighters, gang-bangers, neo-Nazis, ex-cons, inferior officers and a host of near-mercenary troops, lured in or kept in uniform through big payouts and promises". - Nick Turse (Sep 15, '06)

Syria, US shrouded in the fog of war
The gun smoke had hardly blown away before accusations flew over the failed attack on the US Embassy in Damascus. It was orchestrated by the Syrians. It was the Americans, or maybe foreign jihadis. Once this fog of misconception and conspiracy theory clears, Washington and Damascus might have a better chance of working as partners, not enemies, in the "war on terror". - Sami Moubayed (Sep 14, '06)

Osama's on the move again
In improved health and mobile again, Osama bin Laden has traveled from Pakistan's tribal areas into eastern Afghanistan. This is a part of al-Qaeda's revitalized focus on spreading the flames lit by the Hezbollah-Israel war across the Middle East. Tuesday's terror attack on the United States Embassy in Damascus could be the first salvo in this renewed battle. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Sep 13, '06)

Taliban romp in the poppy fields
Casualties are mounting among Western troops as Afghanistan's resurgent Taliban step up their attacks, supported and reinforced by widespread popular anger over the country's dismal economic situation and US efforts to eradicate poppy growing. (Sep 13, '06)

Neo-con favorite declares World War III
Newt Gingrich, the outspoken and controversial former Speaker of the US House of Representatives, has spiced up the still-undeclared 2008 presidential race with a "vintage Gingrich" speech that in effect calls George W Bush's foreign policy much too wimpy. All America's "enemies", from the Taliban to Hugo Chavez, are "on notice". - Jim Lobe (Sep 13, '06)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The real link between 9/11 and Iraq
The Bush administration has said it over and over in various ways: there was a connection between the events of September 11, 2001, and Iraq. Actually, there is, such as damage and casualties, and the fact that Iraq has been turned into the global equivalent of Ground Zero. - Tom Engelhardt (Sep 13, '06)

Fallujah again in the line of US fire
After being hammered twice by US forces, residents of Fallujah have been warned to expect another battering. Fallujah is a key Sunni resistance city in the western Iraqi province of al-Anbar, which a new US intelligence report admits has slipped out of US control. Despite all the attention, resistance fighters have continued to launch attacks against US and official Iraqi forces in the town. - Dahr Jamail and Ali al-Fadhily (Sep 12, '06)

Different degrees of terror in India
The latest terror attack in India claimed 37 lives, all of them Muslim. Investigations are centered on banned Muslim terror outfits, although Hindu extremists (not banned) are also under suspicion. More attacks can be expected unless the government acts uniformly against all forms of religious extremism. -Sudha Ramachandran (Sep 12, '06)

COMMENT
Stumbling on the Path to 9/11
The American Broadcasting Company acknowledges that its miniseries The Path to 9/11 includes fictitious scenes for "dramatic purposes". The problem is, the film depicts real people as uttering the fictitious lines. There is likely to be plenty more drama when real-life lawyers take the stage. - Skip Kaltenheuser (Sep 11, '06)

THE ROVING EYE
The other September 11
In 1973, South America had its own September 11 when Salvador Allende was overthrown in a US-inspired coup by Augusto Pinochet. This set the stage for the transcontinental Operation Condor, a Latino war "of" terror that eliminated thousands of people who were or might have become political adversaries. - Pepe Escobar (Sep 11, '06)

Southeast Asia in the shadow of terror
After scores of arrests and an ideological split, the future of Southeast Asia's main alleged al-Qaeda-linked terror group, Jemaah Islamiya, has been called into question. The group might be down, but it is definitely not out, a former insider tells Asia Times Online. And there may be new groups emerging that have never been heard of. - Chris Holm (Sep 11, '06)

How hi-tech Hezbollah called the shots
Making expert use of intelligence techniques learned from allies Iran and Syria, Hezbollah was able to monitor and decode Israeli communications and jam defense systems during the recent war in Lebanon. It listened in on Israeli reservists chatting on their mobile phones, while its own communications remained unscathed. In the process, at least one tenet of First World versus Third World warfare was turned on its head. - Iason Athanasiadis (Sep 8, '06)

FIVE YEARS ON ... The Long War: A self-defeating prophecy "The Long War" is more than just a failed narrative. It is a self-defeating narrative. It has prospered only because it speaks to a highly motivated US audience, the conservative Republican base that remains the passionate heart of the Bush administration's war policy. - Michael Vlahos (Sep 8, '06) Disillusionment builds in US In the run-up to the anniversary of the September 11 attacks, an increasing number of Americans are expressing the belief that their government's militaristic approach may be creating more problems than it solves. - Jim Lobe (Sep 8, '06)

Pakistan: Hello al-Qaeda, goodbye America
The truce announced this week between the Pakistani Taliban and Islamabad is only part of the story. Pakistan has also agreed to release from custody a number of important al-Qaeda-linked suspects, as well as keep its hands off such figures not yet captured. Islamabad, eyeing a return to its playground in a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, is breaking free from Uncle Sam's clutches. -Syed Saleem Shahzad (Sep 7, '06)

'Taliban taking over'
Afghanistan's resurgent Taliban rebels - popular support for whom has blossomed like an opium poppy as a result of a humanitarian crisis aggravated by US counter-narcotics efforts - are sweeping the country, a new report says. (Sep 7, '06)
 

A joker in the Shi'ite pack Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Mahmud al-Hasani is at odds with everybody, including Sunnis, the Americans, Iranians and other Shi'ites, especially Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and Muqtada al-Sadr. All the same, Hasani is making a big power play, and he has to be taken seriously. -Sami Moubayed (Sep 7, '06) SPENGLER Sistani and the end of Islam Warning that he "no longer has power to save Iraq from civil war", Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has withdrawn from politics. But the "moderating influence" Sistani is purported to have had on the chaos in US-occupied Iraq is overblown, and the shift in Shi'ite alliance to the Iranian-controlled warlord Muqtada al-Sadr reflects how desperate Muslims are to save their faith. (Sep 7, '06)

New winning strategy, same old war
America is "safer, but not yet safe", according to George W Bush's latest pronouncements on the "war on terror". In other words, after five long years of winning the war, "be afraid, but be a little less afraid". Be most afraid of a Democrat-controlled Congress after the upcoming elections: they don't have a winning strategy and they will sell America out to the Islamo-fascist terrorists. We, on the other hand, have a brand new winning strategy. And if that's not enough to win your vote, we also have a plan for Islamo-fascist, terrorist, nuclear-armed Iran ... - Ehsan Ahrari (Sep 6, '06)

Shooting the messengers
US intelligence reports indicate that Tehran is years away from developing nuclear weapons, if that was ever the goal. This timetable does not fit with hawkish elements in the Bush administration. If they are to get their wish of an attack on Iran, they need to discredit the intelligence community's conclusions, and they have already begun. - Gareth Porter (Sep 6, '06)

US military 'loses control' of key province
Resistance fighters in al-Anbar province, which covers nearly one-third of Iraq, have put occupying forces on the defensive, killing dozens of US troops and forcing local officials to defer to their authority. - Dahr Jamail and Ali al-Fadhily (Sep 6, '06)

Iraq loses its voice of reason
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, whose "honorable cooperation" with the Americans has arguably been Iraqi's only hope of a peaceful transition, has washed his hands of politics. This leaves the path clear for the belligerent Muqtada al-Sadr to extend his authority. It also leaves Iran out on a limb. - Sami Moubayed (Sep 5, '06)

Bush's Hezbollah hangover
After Hezbollah's efforts in Lebanon, US attempts at public diplomacy across the Arab world have been rendered stillborn. This does not presage an Islamic revolution, the coming of a new caliphate, or a war of civilizations. But it is creating the kind of upheaval that is unlikely to be in America's favor. - Ashraf Fahim (Sep 5, '06)

CHAN AKYA
Garfield with guns
We're hearing a lot about Hitler, fascism and appeasement these days as the Bush administration tries to conflate today's military adventures with America's "good war", World War II. But Americans who like to portray the conflict in the Middle East in civilizational terms need to confront the notion that they are attacking what they call "Islamic fascism" not because it represents anything different from their own values, but because it possibly represents the future of their own culture. Like poles repel, after all. (Sep 1, '06)

Fascists? Look who's talking
Ve haf vays to make you shut up ... by playing the good old Nazi card. The American right-wing and neo-con press has been playing it with enthusiasm, paving the way for the Bush administration to smear its critics. - Jim Lobe (Sep 1, '06)

The knife at Pakistan's throat
Blood and fire are in the air as Pakistan's tribal areas on the Afghan border brace for imminent incursions by US-led military forces in hot pursuit of the Taliban who are bedeviling them in Afghanistan. The Pakistani Taliban, however, have simply melted into the background even as they still call the shots, with the blessing of the Pakistani government and the local political and religious leadership. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Sep 1, '06)

EMERGING FROM THE RUBBLE (Sep 1, '06) 'Greater West Asia' leans heavily on India A new region, not just a new Middle East but a "Greater West Asia", has emerged out of the Lebanese war, with the result that what appeared as individual conflicts - the US invasion of Iraq, the crisis in Afghanistan, the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict - are connected and feed off one another. And this new region is butting up against India's borders. - M K Bhadrakumar Saudi bid for influence shattered The war in Lebanon has imperiled 15 years of Saudi investments and exposed the limitations of the kingdom's foreign policy. More ominously, it has sharply divided opinion in the country. This is bound to undermine the regime's security and create new forms of challenges and dissent. - Mahan Abedin  Critics decry 'destroy and lend' policy

August 2006