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By July-August 2001, it was clear that something dramatic was about to happen.
Pepe Escobar, our "Roving Eye", was
traveling in Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan. The rumor was that
US forces were about to use Pakistan to launch a raid into Afghanistan.
Escobar's article, published by Asia Times Online on August 30, 2001, was
headlined Get
Osama! Now! Or else ... Our Karachi correspondent, Syed Saleem Shazad,
was meanwhile filing articles like Osama
bin Laden: The thorn in Pakistan's flesh
(August 22) ...
December 24-November 11,
2002
Afghanistan goes back to bad
opium habits
With the Taliban gone from the scene, the
warlords of Afghanistan spent the past year
regaining their former power. Concomitant with
their rise is a dramatic resurgence in opium
production, threatening Afghanistan's stability
and negating the aid contributed to rebuild the
country. - Mark Berniker (Dec 24,
'02)
Al Jazeera: Hits, misses and
ricochets
Before September 11, the Arab satellite TV
station Al Jazeera was hailed in the West as an
important force for progress and democracy in
the Arab world. Now it is vilified as a
propagandist for a hated enemy. The truth, as
usual, is neither black nor white, but somewhere
in between. - Ian
Urbina (Dec 24,
'02)
Move over Iraq, Pyongyang wants
spotlight
North Korea won't permit US President
George Bush the luxury of picking off "evil
axis" members one by one. Dear Leader Kim
Jong-il wants the Bush administration's
attention now - and will use any means necessary
to get it. - Bradley K
Martin (Dec
24, '02)
Against all hegemons, save
one
In the
past, US foreign policy was constructed largely
upon a framework of regional hegemons who could
be trusted to look after Western interests. In a
post-September 11 world, Washington has largely
abandoned that framework, and the reason has a
lot do with its fears of nuclear proliferation.
Now the United States trusts itself alone. -
Ehsan Ahrari (Dec
24, '02)
THE ROVING
EYE
Iraq first, then Southwest
Asia
What
the United States is really interested in is
Southwest Asia - Iran and the former Soviet
republics of Central Asia - and for the moment
the logic of war seems to favor Washington's
political, economic and strategic designs. When
the US has imposed its will on Iraq, the
encirclement of nuclear-ambitious Iran will be
complete. - Pepe Escobar (Dec 24, '02)
HEY,
JOE
Reality
television: 'Elevated risk'
It
used to be that everyone in the United States
could always count on the comforting inanity of
American television. And sure enough, as Ted
Lerner found when he went home for the
holidays, these days you can have up to 300
channels of drama, talk, movies, sports, news,
porn, reruns and just plain old trashy
entertainment. But there's something new: the
daily "Terror Alert Level". And where is
Al-Jazeera? (Dec 24,
'02)
Iraqis dream of a return to
'normalcy'
A recent survey of
Iraqi public opinion reveals widespread apathy
coupled with deep unhappiness with the current
abnormal domestic and international situation.
It also reveals a significant desire for change
- even change that would come on the heels of an
American-led attack. - David Isenberg (Dec 23,
'02)
US turns its fire on friendly
Iranians
Iran has by far the
most pro-US population in the Muslim Middle
East, a population that did not (in contrast to
those of US allies Yemen, Pakistan or Saudi
Arabia) contribute significant amounts of money
or membership to either al-Qaeda or the Taliban.
So why is the Bush administration treating
Iranians - not just the government, but the
people themselves - as untrustworthy enemies? -
Vahid Isabeigi (Dec 23,
'02)
Turks threaten: '10,000 fighters
in Kirkuk'
As armed Kurdish
insurgent groups in the north of Iraq prepare
for war and dream of expanding their influence
after the fall of Baghdad, Turkey, their larger,
more powerful and (from the US point of view)
more useful neighbor to the north, may have
something else in mind. - Hooman
Peimani (Dec 20, '02)
Kurds vow:
'10,000 fighters in
Baghdad'
Having
been taught by history to trust nothing and no
one, Kurdish political leaders are vowing
to put at least a division of Kurdish fighters
in the heart of Baghdad well before any Iraqi
government-in-exile is able to even think about
parachuting in and shutting them out. -
Ian Urbina
(Dec 16,
'02)
THE ROVING
EYE
Iraq:
The countdown begins
On
Thursday, December 19, the UN inspections team
will deliver to the Security Council its
preliminary analysis of the Iraqi declaration of
arms development. From now on, no matter what
Iraq does or says, the stage has been set, and
the countdown begun. - Pepe Escobar (Dec 18,
'02)
Pyongyang derails Northeast
Asian progress
After initial signs of reform, North Korea's recent behavior has
needlessly provoked the United States, Japan and South Korea, to the detriment
of its own people. But the negative effects of Pyongyang's belligerence go
further, upsetting the aspirations of China and Russia as well. - Stephen Blank
(Dec 16, '02)
A heavy-handed
hegemon
Last week wasn't a great one for the
world's sole superpower. From UN headquarters in New York to an unflagged
freighter in the Indian Ocean to the halls of the European Union in Brussels,
heavy-handed American tactics provoked only aggravation and defiance. -
Jim Lobe (Dec 16, '02)
OIL: Signal fire in
the desert
Nothing about the Pentagon's latest war game - not its timing
(simultaneous with Iraq's weapons' disclosure), its location (in the Middle
Eastern emirate of Qatar), its name (Operation Internal Look), nor its
visibility (extremely high profile) - is unintentional, or insignificant. -
Ian Urbina (Dec 13, '02)
Iraqi opposition
forges ties in Tehran
A just-ended meeting in Tehran of
leading Iraqi opposition groups signifies both an awareness of the need for
Iranian support in any forthcoming regime change in Baghdad, and a recognition
in Tehran that if Iran sits out this fight, it risks having a pro-US neighbor.
- Hooman Peimani (Dec
12, '02)
AMBASSADOR'S
JOURNAL
Gulf
crisis: Lessons from 1991
K Gajendra Singh, who
was stationed in Amman as India's ambassador to Jordan during the Gulf crisis
of 1990-91, recalls the frantic efforts and bureaucratic bungling in handling
the flood of Indian refugee workers from the troubled region. And he ponders
whether the Indian government is any better prepared this time around.
(Dec 12, '02)
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 THE
ROVING EYE
Internal
look, imminent war
As Operation Internal Look gets under way in the Gulf emirate
of Qatar, another "war game" that might as well bear the same name is
being played out at the United Nations. And the end result of both operations
is already clear. - Pepe Escobar (Dec 11, '02)
Disclosing the
UN spin game
United Nations translators and analysts have barely begun the
job of figuring out what is actually contained within Iraq's 12,000-page
disclosure of weapons of mass destruction. But the job of spinning the
disclosure in every direction imaginable is well under way. - David Isenberg (Dec
11, '02)
US and Indonesia's
military: In bed again?
Ever since the September 11 terror attacks, the Bush administration
has been pushing to reestablish ties with Indonesia's military. It appears that
nothing - including the deaths of two Americans allegedly at the hands of
Indonesian soldiers - will stop Washington and the US business community from
forging closer relations. - Tim Shorrock (Dec 9,
'02)
US and Turkey: Democracy
and double-talk
The rhetoric coming out of Washington in the wake
of last month's victory by an Islamic party in Turkey's
elections has been full of praise for Turkish democracy. The actions that
have accompanied this rhetoric, however, have a different message. - Jim
Lobe (Dec 9, '02)
US,
Russia marching on Central Asia
Moscow's decision
to base a significant military force in Kyrgyzstan, where US troops
are already stationed, is a clear indication that the process of the military
reapportionment of Central Asia is under way, with the United States and Russia
as the main players flexing their muscles, although China is a far from
disinterested observer. - Sergei Blagov (Dec
6, '02)
THE ROVING EYE
From
Kabul to Baghdad
The world waits on tenterhooks for this weekend's "full disclosure"
by Iraq about its weapons of mass destruction, or lack thereof. Any "material
breach" will likely mean war on Iraq by the US and its allies. But if regime
change in Baghdad mirrors the precedent of Kabul, the outcome will be equally
disastrous. - Pepe Escobar (Dec
6, '02)
Islamism, fascism and
terrorism (Part 4)
The key personality behind the global Islamist jihad of the 1990s
was not Osama bin Laden; rather, it was his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the man
whose long experience in the Muslim Brotherhood, whose critical a+cumen and
organizational and operational skills were central to the success of al-Qaeda.
Now his fascist Islamism has seized the ideological initiative in the Muslim
world of today. - Marc Erikson (Dec
4, '02)
THE US AND EURASIA
Part
2: Eurasia strikes back
We are not marching toward an American Empire. The world is evolving toward a
complex system - a balance among clusters of nations, disposed relatively
equally. Russia, Japan, and later China will be the poles. Most of all, argues Pepe
Escobar in the final part of this essay, there will be Europe.
(Dec 4, '02)
Islamism, fascism and
terrorism (Part 3)
The West is waging war not against the religion of Islam, but
against the little-understood political philosophy of Islamism, which,
upon close examination, reveals itself as a distinct - and distinctly noxious -
form of the same kind of fascism that went down in defeat in World War II, but
which never quite died out, especially in the Middle East. - Marc Erikson (Dec
3, '02)
THE US AND EURASIA
Part 1: Theatrical
militarism
The US is not building an empire. Rather, it is witnessing its empire beginning
to decompose. Pepe Escobar argues in the first part of this essay that
the threat of losing its foreign "posessions" is what has driven the US since
September 11, 2001. (Dec 3, '02)
The Quiet American:
Painful lessons
A bold film version of the poignant Graham Greene
classic, The Quiet American, now released after being postponed because
of last year's September 11 attacks, appears not a day too soon. The United
States is once again mobilizing for war, the horror of the Vietnam experience
forgotten by too many Americans. - James Borton
(Dec 3, '02)
Australia's threats
anger Asian allies
Prime Minister John Howard's renewed threats to launch preemptive
strikes against terrorists in Southeast Asia have angered some of Australia's
closest Asian and Pacific allies and put Canberra on a predictable collision
course with neighboring governments. - Alan Boyd (Dec
2, '02)
COMMENT
Saudis
caught between friend and foe
In the aftermath of September 11,
Saudi Arabia's ruling princes had reason to believe the US considered them
frontline allies in the war on terror. Now, with the country facing a barrage
of media assaults - mostly by carefully targeted US government leaks - the true
precariousness of the Saudis' position been driven home.
(Dec 2, '02)
COMMENTARY
Troops occupy Congress ...
Two recent votes by the US Congress
provide strong evidence of the institution's powerlessness to oppose a sitting
president intent upon committing the nation to war - and that the institution's
absent place in the national debate has been filled by a dangerous combination
of military and media. - Stephen Blank
(Nov 26, '02)
Why Orwell matters
A Pentagon program to create a virtual
database including, but not limited to, all purchases, all Internet usages, all
travel records, all email messages sent or received and all medical records
belonging to, basically, everyone in the world, has civil libertarians a tad
concerned. - Jim Lobe (Nov 26, '02)
ENDURING FREEDOM - ONE YEAR ON
Enduring error
Myth
and mystique
By attributing - against the best available evidence - the recent
wave of Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian terror attacks to a resurgent
al-Qaeda and an apparently alive-and-kicking Osama bin Laden, Western
authorities are doing themselves and their cause no favor. Instead, they are
merely helping erect an enduring "Osama" cult while feeding the rage and
resentment of the Muslim street. - B Raman (Nov
25, '02)
Enduring threat
Fear
of a neverending war
After the euphoria of the expulsion of the Taliban from Kabul, the
terrorism threat has returned, prompting renewed fears of an unwinnable and
neverending war. Is this is merely a public relations problem for George W
Bush? Or is it a sign, perhaps, that some of the war's methods and tactics
should be re-thought? - Jim Lobe (Nov 25,
'02)
Enduring Asia
Remaking
policy in Asia?
The internal conflict between the hardliners and the advocates of engagement
in the Bush administration can be seen in its uneven policies toward
Asia, arguably the region that has been most dramatically affected by the shift
in US policy since the September 11 terror attacks. (Nov
25, '02)
Enduring doubt
Central
Asia: The jury is still out
Several Central Asian nations, including
Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, have actively supported US engagement. But the jury
is still out on whether this has helped or hindered the embattled causes of
human rights and democracy-building in the region. (Nov
25, '02)
The hidden costs of war with Iraq
When critics denigrate a possible war in Iraq with the saying, "It's all about
the oil," what they really mean is, "It's all about economics." But that
probably shouldn't apply to the Bush administration, according to a
study that asserts that this is one war that will likely serve not as an
economic engine, but as a brake - and not only for the US. - David Isenberg
(Nov 22, '02)
India not yet prepared to
ditch Iraq
At a time when New Delhi's relations
with Washington are warming after decades of frostiness, it comes as something
of a surprise that India has sent out a clear anti-war signal, distancing
itself from the US position on Iraq. - Sudha
Ramachandran (Nov 22, '02)
'Terror' is a two-edged sword
for Malaysia
The Malaysian government is fuming over a US travel warning, which Prime
Minister Mahathir Mohamad calls "economic sabotage". Mahathir is finding that
playing the "war on terrorism" game can have a downside as well. - Anil Netto
(Nov 22, '02)
Al-Qaeda's quixotic
quest to go nuclear
Re-examination of seized al-Qaeda documents reveals that the
organization badly wanted a nuclear device, but didn't have much luck buying,
stealing or building one. Indeed, the network appears to have been a target for
scam artists - some of them comically inept - as it went about gathering
nuclear know-how and material. This does not mean, though, that there is room
for complacency. (Nov 21, '02)
The
mystery behind the hoax
On November 14, Asia Times Online published an article about al-Qaeda's plans
for a nuclear attack on the United States. The article was based on the
contents of an alleged Al Jazeera interview that turned out to be a hoax
perpetrated by an unknown person. The article, and our subsequent withdrawal of
it, generated intense interest. Pepe Escobar, author of the original
article, now explains what happened. (Nov
21, '02) |
ANALYSIS
Battle
of the old Middle East hands
 The
choice of a post-Saddam Hussein ruler for Iraq is brewing into a major turf
battle in the Bush administration between the old Middle East hands of the
Pentagon against their counterparts in the State Department and the CIA.
Currently, the punters give "silk-suited, Rolex-wearing" Ahmed Chalabi, the
choice of the Pentagon, the edge - but he could blow the game yet. - Jim Lobe
The war to win hearts
and minds begins
UN Resolution 1441 and the Iraqi letter
of response began another kind of war - a war of persuasion in which the
targets of occupation are not the city centers, presidential palaces and oil
fields of Iraq, but the hearts and minds of the entire world - especially the
Arab world. - Ehsan Ahrari
(Nov 20, '02)
Iraqi gambit
worries UN
As the cat-and-mouse game commences with arms inspectors inside
Iraq, there are some in the international community who fear that it is a game
that cannot but end with an American military protectorate wielding absolute
unilateral power, while wearing the fig leaf of multilateral support gained
through the United Nations. - Alexander Casella
(Nov 20, '02)
Iraq's wannabe rulers
unite in disharmony
As the US military trains thousands of
Iraqi exiles to take part in an invasion, the fractious external
opposition groups have patched up their differences in the interests
of taking over from Saddam. But with competing plans for a transition
government already in circulation, the bonhomie is unlikely to last. -
David Isenberg (Nov 18,
'02)
COMMENTARY
The message
behind bin Laden's message
The tape attributed to Osama bin Laden is an attempt by him
(if the recording is authentic), or by someone else to project the recent
terrorist attacks in various countries as part of a masterplan inspired and
orchestrated by him. But this clearly is not the reality, although there
remains scant room for complacency. - B Raman (Nov
18, '02)
Execution threatens new
wave of terror
Intelligence agencies are warning of a new wave of terror across the world,
with al-Qaeda using local militants to do the dirty work. And the trigger could
well be the scheduled execution in the US on Thursday of Pakistani Aimal Kansi
for the murder of two CIA employees. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Nov 13, '02)
Groundpounders to the
war zone
Last summer saw a flurry of leaked reports discussing likely
scenarios for invading Iraq, with most of them contradicting each other and
sometimes even themselves. Now the leaks are beginning to trickle again from
the Pentagon, but this time the stories are (mostly) straight: They're saying
that this will be the war of the groundpounders. - David Isenberg
(Nov 13, '02)
This war brought to
you by Rendon Group
 In
today's media-saturated universe, wars must not only be fought and won, they
must be packaged and presented and sold like soap. And when the Pentagon finds
itself in need of some good publicity, it knows who to call: the Washington
DC-based Rendon Group. - Ian Urbina (Nov
12, '02)
COMMENTARY
On Iraq, Asia
waits, watches and wonders
With an attack in Iraq seemingly inevitable, its neighbors in the
Middle East and South Asia are choosing the pragmatic path of tending immediate
domestic concerns, preparing for the inevitable aftermath, and pondering the
US's long-term intentions. - Mushahid Hussain
(Nov 12, '02)
UN resolution:
Dangerous ambiguity
The UN resolution on Iraq can be viewed
as a victory for both the US and the UN - but that may be its biggest danger -
its studied ambiguity. Some read it as a multilateral decision to provide Iraq
with a final chance to avoid war; others read it as providing the US
the political cover it needs to invade unilaterally. And if war comes, these
questions will arise again, but with the stakes considerably higher. - Ian
Urbina (Nov 11, '02)
Sovereignty takes a
contract hit
Two recent events - the firing of a Hellfire missile over the Yemeni
desert and the temporary recall of the Mauritian ambassador to the United
Nations - are different facets of the same phenomenon: the subordination of
national sovereignty to the interests and wishes of an increasingly imperialist
United States. (Nov 11, '02)
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