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December 2006
A
risky throw of the dice for
Bush
Like a gambler trying to
reverse a disastrous run, President George W Bush
is considering a controversial plan to pour as
many as 50,000 new troops into Iraq in a bid to
claim what he insists on calling "victory".
Skeptics warn that all that will be achieved will
be the creation of a "Stalingrad on the Tigris". -
Jim Lobe (Dec
21, '06)
Syria flirts with the West
A Syrian
realignment away from Iran toward Washington's
vision for the Middle East - as appears to be
happening - would disrupt the land-bridge of
Iranian influence from Tehran across Iraq and
Syria to Lebanon. Damascus, though, might not have
as much to offer as it believes. - Iason Athanasiadis (Dec 21,
'06)
Taliban
line up the heavy artillery
To date, the Taliban have
mostly engaged their pawns against foreign forces,
with key leaders based safely in the tribal belt
between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Come spring,
ahead of a planned mass armed uprising, Mullah
Omar and other Taliban heavyweights will take up
positions in Baghran in Helmand province, already
a Taliban stronghold. Syed
Saleem Shahzad ventures to this remote region,
and gets caught between Taliban ignorance and
tribal wisdom. (Dec 20, '06)
Holy warriors set sights on
Iran
America's right-wing
Christian Zionists, who have emerged as an
influential force in Washington in recent years,
are using "biblical prophecy" in their campaign to
mobilize the forces of Christianity against Iran.
If military action isn't taken now, they say, a
"thermonuclear genie" - and with it Armageddon -
will be unleashed. (Dec 20, '06)
US told to make 'clean break' in
Iraq
The
International Crisis Group has warned that Iraq
faces "complete disintegration into failed-state
chaos" and an expansion of the conflict beyond the
country's borders if Washington does not radically
shift its strategy from stepped-up military
aggression to regional diplomatic engagement in
pursuit of a political solution. - Jim Lobe
(Dec 20,
'06)
How Syria dodged a neo-con
bullet
Under
intense lobbying from neo-conservatives, the Bush
administration allowed Israel the time to extend
its summer war with Hezbollah to Syria, believing
this would end the insurgency in Iraq. Damascus is
making the most of the reprieve. - Jim Lobe (Dec 19,
'06)
COMMENT
Saudi Arabia and Iran in Iraq
fix
Iran is a real power
in Iraq, while Saudi Arabia remains a "wanna-be
power". Instead of conducting a trench war with
Iranian intelligence in Iraq, Riyadh therefore has
to rely on conventional diplomacy - and this is
better done behind closed doors. Even as an
advantaged actor, Tehran would prefer this, and it
might even benefit the US. - Ehsan Ahrari (Dec 19,
'06)
The losing battle against
anti-Americanism
The Iraq was a
huge blow to US prestige, not only among Arabs and
Muslims but among the populations of longtime
European allies and Japan. Despite serious money
and effort poured into public-diplomacy marketing
campaigns, the anti-American trend has not been
reversed. The solution lies not with the State
Department but with the American public itself.
(Dec 19, '06)
The coming Sunni-Shi'ite
showdown
As the US mulls
its options in Iraq, the message from the region,
and particularly from Saudi Arabia, is clear:
Sunni governments are rallying to stymie Tehran's
influence across the Middle East in what is
shaping up to be a showdown against widening
Shi'ite power. The opening salvo may already
be taking place in Palestine. - Jason Motlagh
(Dec 18, '06)
A
bitter struggle for power in
Iran
Local elections are likely to
strengthen the hand of the all-powerful Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Khamenei in his struggle with
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, who has
fallen out with the country's leading cleric by
insisting on charting his own course. For the US,
there's a strong message: change can be effected
in Tehran through political evolution, rather
than war. - Sami
Moubayed (Dec 15, '06)
US roots in Iraq too deep to
pull
From
military to oil policy, the Bush administration
displays an imperial attitude toward the Iraqi
government and shows visible disdain for any
genuine "sovereignty" in the country. And beyond,
the US is not about to abandon its soaring
ambitions of Middle East domination. - Michael Schwartz (Dec 15,
'06)
Looking to Syria for
help
The Iraq
Study Group recommends that the Bush
administration bring neighboring states, including
longtime pariahs Iran and Syria, to the table as
it tries to extricate itself from the Iraq
quagmire. But there is much history behind US
animosity against Syria. - Henry C K Liu (Dec 15,
'06)
Soured
Sunni deal ends one US option
US
talks with Iraq's Sunni resistance organizations
to explore possible American support for a Sunni
military force directed primarily against Shi'ites
broke down over Sunni demands for a US withdrawal
timetable. Now it's back to the battlefield. -
Gareth Porter (Dec
14, '06)
The
search for an Iraqi kingmaker
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's days
appear numbered, especially as the Bush
administration is courting rival Shi'ite leader
Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who is close to Iran. The
signals point to the foundations being laid for
talks between Washington and Tehran on yet another
"solution" for Iraq. - Iason Athanasiadis
(Dec
14, '06)
COMMENT
The elusive winning strategy
for Iraq
President George W Bush is
tapping myriad sources, including no doubt His
Master and his dog Barney, in search of a new
policy for Iraq. Whether he is listening, though,
is another matter. Ehsan Ahrari writes
that Bush has apparently decided once and for
all that Iraq will be his last stand and either he
will be "victorious" or his successors will have
to sort out the mess. Dec 14, '06)
REVAMPING US
FOREIGN POLICY, Part 1
Full speed ahead, with
menace
The
Bush administration's six-year neo-conservative
line is likely to be pursued with even greater
vigor and speed. This will start with Iran, where
the nuclear issue is being cynically used by the
US and Europe to "sex up" the issue of Tehran's
regional ambitions and conveniently to justify
early and collective action - even massive
military action. - W
Joseph Stroupe (Dec 14, '06)
 PART 2: The
misnomer of multipolarity
PART
3: The
rising pole of the East
THE ROVING
EYE
Staying
the course for Big Oil in Iraq
One
solution to the Iraqi tragedy would be for the
Bush administration to give up its quest for the
country's oil, with no preconditions. This is not
going to happen, which is why there can be no firm
timeline for a complete US withdrawal. A new Iraqi
oil law being drafted will open the industry to
foreigners, and US troops will be needed to defend
Big Oil's investment. - Pepe
Escobar (Dec 13, '06)
The cost: An army and a
leg
As long
as the Bush administration refuses to rule out an
attack on Iran, military strategists will have a
field day assessing just how such an offensive
could play out. According to some, it might
backfire spectacularly and cost the United States
an army. - Jason
Motlagh (Dec 13, '06)
The US Democrats'
dilemma
The
Bush administration is mustering arguments and
support for its solution to the Middle East
crisis: an attack on Iran. This gives the
Democrats a choice. They can get sucked into such
a war, or they can put forward a bold alternative
that would not only prepare for US withdrawal from
Iraq but restabilize the Middle East. (Dec 13,
'06)
 The vultures are
circling
At night, NATO forces confined
to a base near Kandahar fire their guns into the
sky, while the Taliban, bunkered in a village just
a few kilometers away,
watch -
and wait. The two
sides no longer engage each other. But as Taliban
commander Qari Hazrat tells Syed Saleem Shahzad, this
is all part of the plan. (Dec 12, '06)
Iraq as a living hell
While
recommendations multiply in Washington on what the
Bush administration should do in and with Iraq,
the people of the country send strong messages of
their chilling sense of life and death, sectarian
strife, hopelessness and despair, and the
pervading belief that "today is better than
tomorrow". - Dahr Jamail
(Dec 12, '06)
Father, son and Holy
Ghost
Anyone
who thought the Iraq Study Group endeavor meant
former president George H W Bush was coming to
rescue his misguided son was mistaken. Bush Jr is
guided by a higher Father to whom only he is
privy. He still wants victory, while the ISG
offers only a useful cover for retreat. - Ehsan Ahrari (Dec 11,
'06)
Kurds reject Iraq
report
Neo-conservatives in the US
aren't the only ones dumping on the Iraq Study
Group report. The Kurds are so upset they say they
will formally secede from Iraq in the (unlikely)
event that the report's recommendations are fully
implemented. The Shi'ites aren't crazy about the
report either. (Dec 11, '06)
Outsourcing the Afghan
problem
Embattled Afghan
President Hamid Karzai is trying to initiate
intra-Afghan dialogue through tribal councils
involving leaders from Afghanistan and Pakistan.
This is a double-edged sword, as Karzai might
find himself elbowed out incrementally should
the Taliban - as they have hinted - embrace the
project. Indeed, Pakistan, clearly with US
backing, is now painting Karzai as the problem.
- M K Bhadrakumar
(Dec 11, '06)
 SPEAKING
FREELY
All along the watch
tower
The
Afghan insurgency bears all the hallmarks of a
transboundary civil war that risks undermining
the stability of the entire length of the
Afghan-Pakistan-Indian border. NATO forces alone
cannot solve the problem, unless the US and
Britain rethink their policy, in particular with
regard to the Taliban and the disputed Durand
Line that - on the map at least - separates
Pakistan and Afghanistan. - Peter J Middlebrook and
Sharon M Miller
(Dec 11,
'06) |
A door opens for US-Iran
cooperation
Opponents of Iran have dubbed
as "surrealism" rather than "realism" the call by
the Iraq Study Group for the US to solicit
Tehran's cooperation over Iraq. Yet Iran is
sending sufficient signals to back this approach,
and there is a window of opportunity as long as
the two sides delink Iran's nuclear program from
the Iraq issue. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Dec 8, '06)
Iraq heading the Lebanon
way
Saudi
Arabia and Iran, Iraq's two most powerful
neighbors with a direct stake in its future, could
become a source of permanent instability for that
country. It all sounds worryingly like a return to
the travails experienced by civil-war-struck
Lebanon. - Iason
Athanasiadis (Dec 8, '06)
 Time out from a
siege
A battle-hardened mujahideen
leader during the anti-Soviet resistance and
now a Taliban field commander in the middle of a
siege of a NATO base, Abdul Khaliq shares a
sparse meal and a blanket with Syed Saleem
Shahzad. He explains how
divisions in Afghan society are being healed in
the face of a common enemy: the occupation forces.
(Dec 8, '06)
 CHAN AKYA
Economics and
Bamiyan
The
destruction of the Bamiyan statues marked the
nadir for secular forces in Afghanistan, but
attempts to reconstruct the site will fail unless
a supporting economic framework can be properly
established. Tourism rather than industrialization
offers the way out for the country, as the success
of secular politics in Egypt and Turkey so clearly
demonstrates. (Dec 8,
'06)
Iraq
Study Group gets one thing right
The Iraq Study Group has performed an invaluable service to the United
States by underscoring the importance of multilateralism and the need for
ISG's recommendations
The Iraq Study Group made 79 recommendations to President Bush.
They are summarized here. |
diplomatic exchanges even with America's adversaries. As such, it might
prove to be the end of neo-conservative efforts to drive US foreign policy
toward unilateralism, jingoism and hubris, the results of which are plain
to see in Iraq, writes Ehsan Ahrari. It
remains to be seen whether President George W Bush will adopt such an approach,
and whether it will come in time to save Iraq. (Dec
7, '06)
The elephant gives birth to a mouse
Everyone knows that the situation in Iraq is
deteriorating and that the current US strategy is wrong - everyone except
President Bush, who had to have an Iraq Study Group to tell him so. Bush's
problem now is that the group's recommendations come with a crucial caveat:
they will only work "... if the Iraqi government moves forward with national
reconciliation". Quite so, writes Anthony Cordesman. Yet the
ISG report, with all its 79 recommendations, fails to suggest workable
incentives for the Iraqis to do that. (Dec
7, '06)
The myth of more in Iraq
A characteristic of the US's approach to Iraq is that, when tactics fail, the
call is simply for more and more of whatever has already been tried. This
relates in particular to training more Iraqi troops to tackle the insurgency
and in stationing more forces in Baghdad to defuse sectarian violence. In both
cases, more means worse. - Michael Schwartz (Dec 7,
'06)
Butcher, Baker:
The neo-cons' new villain
 In
the weeks preceding the release of the Iraq Study Group's report, the
neo-conservative media in the US have been busy vilifying the
group's co-chairman, former US secretary of state James Baker, as a
defeatist and appeaser. The goal has been to discredit the ISG's
conclusions even before they are published. - Jim Lobe
(Dec 6, '06)
Odd bedfellows: Bush woos Shi'ite
leader
It would be hard to find a stranger couple than President George W Bush and
Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. Their meeting comes as Washington seems poised to end its
efforts to appease Sunnis and throw in its lot with Iraqi Shi'ites, of whom
Hakim is the paramount leader. But that may mean dealing with Hakim's backer,
Iran. - Sami Moubayed (Dec 6, '06)
Rough
justice and blooming poppies
After a siege and bitter fighting of several months, the Taliban recently drove
British troops from Musa Qala in Helmand province. Now the Taliban have a new
stronghold from which to strengthen their guerrilla war. The tribespeople are
pleased; criminals swiftly have their heads hacked off, and they can once again
go about their business of cultivating poppies. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Dec 6, '06)
Saudi-Iran tension fuels wider
conflict
Iran and Saudi Arabia continue to squabble over each other's perceived meddling
in Iraq, Lebanon and even Afghanistan. Certainly, Iran and Saudi Arabia - the
largest and the richest Persian Gulf countries - have the capability to dictate
the pace of events. The crucial issue is whether they want to work together -
or risk exacerbating already spiraling conflicts. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec
5, '06)
As Rice's Iran strategy fizzles,
Cheney waits
With US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's months-long diplomatic effort to
get a tough UN Security Council resolution against Iran all but doomed by
Russian and Chinese resistance, the political-diplomatic planning for an attack
on Iran, as championed by Vice President Dick Cheney, can begin. - Gareth Porter
(Dec 5, '06)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Fiddling while Baghdad burns
Despite what people might believe, the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group
- to be turned over to President George W Bush on Wednesday - if accepted,
would leave the US embedded in Iraq for at least another three to five years
and spread the United States' problems "over the horizon". - Tom Engelhardt
(Dec 5, '06)
How the Taliban prepare for battle
Virtually under the eyes of the occupying forces in Kandahar city, Taliban
logistics experts go about their business of replenishing supplies, many of
them from government sources. At the same time, the Taliban are active in
surrounding areas preparing tribespeople to fall in line under the Taliban flag
before next year's spring offensive. Syed Saleem Shahzad shares a taxi -
and some inspirational tapes - with a Taliban coordinator.
(Dec 4, '06)
NATO summit throws up a surprise
Moscow has reason to feel satisfied after the NATO summit as a decision on
enlargement was deferred. China, too, will be pleased as it has been promised
improved contact with the bloc. It's over Afghanistan, though, that the seeds
of a global collective security model could be sown. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Dec 4, '06)
The
anti-Siniora craze in Beirut
Losing control of the street can be fatal, literally, for a Lebanese leader.
Prime Minister Fouad al-Siniora is getting the street treatment now. Powerful
elements from the Christian and Shi'ite sectors would welcome his fall. One
thing he has going for him - support of the West, which does not favor a
"coup", from the street or anywhere else. - Sami Moubayed
(Dec 4, '06)
 SPENGLER
Civil wars or proxy wars?
The emergence of an Iranian threat to Saudi Arabia has dropped the Palestine
problem to the bottom of the Arab priority list, and the Palestinians will
become cannon fodder in a proxy war. As long as Iran does not go
nuclear, the Sunnis and Shi'ites will fight a war of attrition, fueled and
prolonged from outside. (Dec 4, '06)
Deep
inside the 'kingdom of
heaven'
 The
isolated southwest of Afghanistan is, because of its very remoteness, a key
area in any conflict. In the 1990s, the hardy tribespeople there welcomed the
Taliban and their promises of a "kingdom of heaven". Then came the
Americans, flogging a "paradise on Earth". Now the Taliban, in what they
view as a major success, are back in this wasteland, with plans to extend their
conquest. Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on his travels in the region.
(Dec 1, '06)
Time is on the Taliban's side
The US failed to achieve its twin objectives of fewer
restrictions and more troops for Afghanistan at this week's North Atlantic
Treaty Organization summit. This plays into the hands of the estimated 10,000
Taliban fighters preparing to take their fight to "surprising" levels against
international forces for as long as it takes to bleed Western resolve. - Jason
Motlagh (Dec 1, '06)
CHAN
AKYA
Feral
cats, beware
The unraveling of Iraq amid political uncertainty in Washington
heralds the demise of the American century. With financial markets also voting
with their feet on the US dollar, Asia has to confront both the costs and the
opportunity presented. The re-emergence of Russia provides a useful time lag
for China to prepare the ground for taking over from the US as the world's next
superpower. (Dec 1, '06)
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War
and Terror
