January 2007


Israel mixes rhetoric with realism
Alarmist Israeli statements about Iran do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of Israeli national security officials. Jerusalem's veiled threats to attack Iran's nuclear facilities are also at odds with its internal assessment of the feasibility and desirability of such an attack. - Gareth Porter (Jan 31, '07)

AFGHANISTAN'S HIGHWAY TO HELL
The Taliban's flower power
Afghanistan provides the opium that makes 90% of the world's heroin. Nearly half the poppy fields, as well as dozens of processing laboratories, are in Helmand province - Taliban country. Counter-narcotics officials are well aware of the problem, and the depth of the Taliban's involvement, but there is little they can do about it. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 31, '07)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Nemesis is at America's door
Democracy at home and imperial domination abroad: the two are impossible to reconcile and something has to give, as superpower Rome discovered. Now Nemesis is on America's premises, writes Chalmers Johnson. (Jan 31, '07)
 

The writing's on the wall for Iran The Bush administration rejected any reports that it planned to attack Saddam Hussein as "urban legends". The same language is now being used over the possibility of US action against Iran. But when the US is joined by the Saudis and the Israelis and their powerful supporters in Washington, it spells danger - as the Soviets learned in Afghanistan and the Iranians in their war with Iraq. (Jan 30, '07) Down to the nuclear wire Iran will likely push its uranium enrichment plans right down to the wire - February 21, when the UN Security Council takes up a sanctions resolution. After that? Having proved to itself it can enrich uranium, Tehran might back down and allow intrusive inspections. The problem is that Iran may have crossed Israel's red line. (Jan 30, '07)

Bush's three-front blunder
Many military analysts think US President George W Bush has made a blunder of Hitlerian proportions with his apparent decision to attack all three major antagonists in Iraq. But just confronting the Mehdi Army may be a bridge too far given the number of troops the US can deploy. - Gareth Porter (Jan 30, '07)

Another illusion pulled from the Iraqi hat
Muqtada al-Sadr's alliance with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is back on track. This means Muqtada gets to keep his deadly Shi'ite militia, and the premier gets essential backing for his plan to "secure" Baghdad. Keeping the Sunnis happy is another matter. - Sami Moubayed (Jan 29, '07)

The surge: Don't hold your breath
In theory the new US strategy for Baghdad and al-Anbar province sounds smart and workable. But it requires a deep and lengthy commitment, which is probably impossible now, especially in light of the looming presidential election in the United States. The influence of Iran, the new bogeyman, is probably too deep to be challenged short-term. - Mahan Abedin (Jan 29, '07)

US elevates Pakistan to regional kingpin
The US has dropped all criticism of Pakistan over perceived support of the Taliban in Afghanistan. President General Pervez Musharraf is being feted in pro-American Sunni Arab capitals, and Islamabad and NATO have finalized a landmark cooperation agreement. With these rapid developments, Pakistan has been made "part of the solution" and is assured a pivotal role in US regional policy that extends far beyond Afghanistan and includes, crucially, Iran. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 26, '07)

Lebanon: Shadow of civil war looms again
The opposition in Lebanon wants to bring down the government through strikes. So far, situation normal. But the strife is part of the larger Sunni-Shi'ite confrontation in the Middle East and, beyond that, the confrontation between the US and Iran. Many think the Israeli-Hezbollah war this summer fits into the same picture. - Sami Moubayed (Jan 26, '07)

Toward a new UN security role in Iraq
Under its new secretary general, the UN has signaled it is ready to take a more active role in an Iraq plunged into chaos by the invasion - deemed "illegal" by Ban Ki-moon's predecessor - and occupation by the US. To make its new commitment meaningful to the Iraqi people, the world body should channel its peacekeeping expertise toward the security challenges the US has failed to meet. - Kaveh Afrasiabi (Jan 26, '07)

AFGHANISTAN'S HIGHWAY TO HELL
Softly, softly in the Taliban's den
Where the US previously used hard power, British forces are using tribal structures and reconstruction programs to isolate hardline Taliban in the province of Helmand, the heart of Afghanistan's insurgency. The results have been encouraging, but some feel it might be too little too late. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 26, '07)

Middle East's cold war heats up
With Iran empowered by the demise of its enemies in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is orchestrating a Shi'ite crescent that stretches from Kabul to Beirut. In response, a Sunni axis with US backing is being marshaled - with Pakistan the latest recruit. The proxies of Iran and Saudi Arabia are locking horns all over the region, from Baghdad to Beirut and Gaza, while Washington and Tehran step up military preparations. - Iason Athanasiadis (Jan 25, '07)

Surging toward Iran
President George W Bush's plan for Iraq is directed as much toward Iran as it is toward Iraq, says Ali Allawi, formerly Iraq's minister of defense, in an interview with National Interest Online editor Ximena Ortiz. Allawi sharply raps Washington for denying Baghdad sovereignty and an opportunity to craft its own Iran policy, and he calls into question the viability of a centralized Iraq. (Jan 25, '07)

Revolt builds against Bush's Iraq policy
A key US Senate committee's resolution formally dissenting from President George W Bush's plan to send 21,500 more troops to Iraq does not tie the hands of the president. But it is a clear indication of which way the wind is blowing in Congress, and it could even portend a constitutional crisis. - Jim Lobe (Jan 25, '07)

Iraq: State of the (dis)union
While US President George W Bush's State of the Union address was a non-event in terms of a new strategy for the Middle East, what the "enemy" is thinking has been personified by al-Qaeda's No 2, Sunni Arab Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Iraqi Shi'ite nationalist leader Muqtada al-Sadr. It is unclear who in Iraq will be the ultimate winner of the conflict, but it is clear that the US "surge" - probably in tandem with the aerial bombing of Baghdad - will lead to "one, two, a thousand Fallujahs". - Pepe Escobar (Jan 24, '07)

Debunking Iran's nuclear myth makers
Are Iranians marching in lock-step toward developing an atomic bomb? There are plenty of voices within Iran, including at the highest level, advocating caution or even a suspension of uranium enrichment. This idea should be encouraged, as it would comply with UN resolutions and undercut the nuclear myth makers in the US. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 24, '07)

AFGHANISTAN'S HIGHWAY TO HELL
The winter of the Taliban's content
Just before winter set in, the Taliban were tantalizingly close late last year to launching their all-out offensive to gain control of Kandahar, situated along the key artery leading to the capital Kabul. Aware of the threat, NATO-led forces have cleared pockets of resistance key to the Taliban's grand plan. But as surely as the snow will melt, the Taliban will re-emerge, primed once again for the big push to Kabul. - Syed Saleem Shahzad(Jan 24, '07)

COMMENT
The price of hypocrisy
During her recent visit to Egypt, US Secretary of State Rice made no mention of democracy or even a hint of criticism at the growing repression since her previous visit. This blindness toward the Egyptian government's continuing oppression of its citizens will cost the United States dearly across the Muslim world. - Mark LeVine (Jan 24, '07)

Southern tribes add to Iraqi resistance
Shi'ite Arab tribes in the south of Iraq are increasingly engaging occupation forces in armed resistance. Their motivation stems more from growing nationalism than vengeance - and fear of Iran's influence. - Dahr Jamail and Ali al-Fadhily (Jan 22, '07)

China begins to define the rules
Suddenly China is no longer America's "potential enemy" and "a threat to be contained". Now, China is to be embraced. What has changed? Not much, except that the US, enmired as it is in the Middle East, needs help there and is thus forced to make a show of multilateralism. China's brilliant strategists are only too happy to play along - unlike the Russians. Oh, for the simple joys of the Cold War. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 19, '07)

The great games over Iraq
The US has signaled a dramatic shift in its Iraq policy, aimed at deterring Iran's "hegemony" and putting Washington in league with the anti-Iran Sunni alliance. Moscow and Beijing have their own imperatives, and destabilizing Iran is not one of them. Kaveh L Afrasiabi foresees a future in which local and international rivals clash head on in the region. (Jan 19, '07)

Korea: The fog of war - and of talks
Is there a future for US forces on the Korean Peninsula? The question is posed by none other than the commander of those forces, in the face of rising South Korean antagonism to the mechanisms that define the leadership of US-Korean forces in case of war. The proposed solution to the problem is complicated, but no more opaque than this week's US-North Korea talks that produced "a certain agreement", according to Pyongyang. The US negotiator is now wondering what exactly he is supposed to have agreed to. - Donald Kirk (Jan 19, '07)

SPEAKING FREELY
Danger lurks in Turkmenistan
In Turkmenistan a political arrangement that moves the country toward oligarchy and klepto-capitalism must be considered progress. In the wake of the longtime dictator Saparmurat Niyazov's death, the various elites must reach a compromise, or there will be a vacuum to be filled by Islamist extremists. - Andrei Tsygankov (Jan 19, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
Ahmadinejad be damned
While Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has been traipsing around South America hatching energy plots, all is not well on the home front. Ahmadinejad is subject to crossfire from conservatives and reformers alike, with the former particularly upset over his handling of the nuclear dossier and wanting to rein him in. Washington might need to start manufacturing another "new Hitler". - Pepe Escobar (Jan 18, '07)

A blueprint for chaos in Iraq 
The Bush administration's latest policy on Iraq aims to unite the country's fractious sectarian entities. They might well unite, but it will more likely be against the US. In a similar vein, any attack aimed at Iran to "restore regional balance" will probably tilt the balance further towards Tehran. - W Joseph Stroupe (Jan 18, '07)

America's Opium War
Forget Vietnam, forget Korea. The best analogy for America's misadventure in Iraq is the Opium War of the 19th century, when a small British naval force (read Iraqi insurgents) humiliated the Middle Kingdom (read United States). And like China's defeat in the Opium War, the disaster in Iraq could lead the US into decline. - Dmitry Shlapentokh (Jan 18, '07)

SPEAKING FREELY
Tribal tribulations in Afghanistan
Afghanistan and Pakistan hope that by convening a traditional council of leading Pashtun tribespeople they will be able to take the sting out of the Taliban-led insurgency. Exactly the opposite is likely to happen - the whole Pashtun tribal zone could become a base for militant Islam and extremists. - Haroun Mir (Jan 18, '07)

US lacks 'explosive' evidence against Iran
The US has consistently accused Iran of supplying Iraqi insurgents with improvised explosive devices that can penetrate US armored vehicles. The purpose is to justify aggressive rhetoric against Tehran and also suggest that Iran bears much of the blame for sectarian violence in Baghdad. But not one shred of evidence has ever been produced. - Gareth Porter (Jan 17, '07)

COMMENT
A whiff of desperation in the air
A severely weakened US administration has turned its attention to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process after years of neglect. But solving that conundrum is tough enough without a feeling that it is a desperate last bid to stave off total defeat in the Middle East. (Jan 17, '07)

The Pentagon's energy-protection racket
While the Bush administration and its neo-con supporters offer a vision of a vast imperial enemy-in-the-making that they call "Islamo-fascism", a more chilling possibility exists: "energo-fascism", or the militarization of the global struggle over ever-diminishing supplies of energy. US armed forces are being turned into a multibillion-dollar "global oil protection service" in this ruthless scramble. - Michael T Klare (Jan 16, '07)

Fishing in troubled waters
Is George W Bush planning to attack Iran? Depends on whom you listen to. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's remarks are calibrated to suggest the possibility, but other officials have been quick to assure everyone that there are no plans to attack Iranian interests outside of Iraq. This double-talk is aimed at reassuring the Republican base without upsetting Congress - Gareth Porter (Jan 16, '07)