February 2007

Pakistan makes a deal with the Taliban
Pakistan has made a deal to give logistical support to the Taliban in southwestern Afghanistan. Islamabad desperately wants a foothold in the country and the Taliban need more muscle for their resistance. Veteran Taliban commander and diplomatic facilitator Mullah Dadullah is making it all happen, even as US Vice President Dick Cheney urges Islamabad to "get tough on the Taliban". - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 28, '07)

Cheney meets a general in his labyrinth
The congruence of interests between the Bush administration and the regime of President General Pervez Musharraf has no parallel in previous US-Pakistan relations. To belittle the general, to chastise him like an errant schoolboy over the Taliban and al-Qaeda - this was the last thing US Vice President Dick Cheney had in mind. In the big picture, which includes Iran, the US has a vital role for Islamabad. - M K Bhadrakumar (Feb 28, '07)

Big Oil in, stability out under new Iraqi law Iraq's parliament now has to vote on a controversial draft oil law approved by cabinet on Monday, even though key aspects of the law are unclear. As it stands, foreign oil companies will be the big winners in the proposed system that could lead to the break-up of Iraq, and forcing the law's passage is certain to bring about an increase in violence and instability. (Feb 27, '07) THE ROVING EYE US's Iraq oil grab is a done deal Iraq's oil wealth will, in theory, be distributed directly to Kurds in the north, Shi'ites in the south and Sunnis in the center. In effect, the massive reserves will be under the iron rule of a fuzzy council boasting "a panel of oil experts from inside and outside Iraq". That is, nothing less than predominantly US Big Oil executives. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 27, '07)

Three US reasons to attack Iran
The world will still sit through several months of soap opera at the United Nations and world capitals over Iran's nuclear program, but the Bush administration has in essence drawn up a list of charges against Iran. The proof lies in recent public statements of President George W Bush, which, when pieced together, provide a three-point casus belli, or formal list of justifications, for going to war. - Michael T Klare (Feb 26, '07)

The British story in Iraq is written
Britain may be leaving several thousand troops behind in Iraq after the latest drawdown, but the story of Britain in Iraq is now largely over. While the British can point to some genuine successes, overall it is not a very happy story. The only thing left is to write the final chapter, and the outcome depends on what the Americans do. - Ronan Thomas (Feb 26, '07)

Defiance as sanctions begin to bite
Discussions within Iran of its nuclear policies by political parties, individuals and the press has long been banned by the body responsible for all nuclear policymaking and negotiations. But voices are beginning to be heard, and they are not all happy. (Feb 26, '07)

Al-Qaeda's China problem
After an initial period of repression, China has used political means to keep Islamic terrorism in Xinjiang autonomous region at a remarkably low level. This success has been due in part to China's ability to provide an alternative to violence for Muslim Uighurs. The US could learn from China's "war on terror". (Feb 26, '07)

Foreign devils in the Iranian mountains
Tehran accuses the US of staging covert operations from Pakistan to provoke ethnic and religious violence, and even the breakup of Iran. Tehran is also angered by what it sees as a US-Pakistan nexus manipulating the Afghan situation. Iran could retaliate against NATO in Afghanistan, or try to make Pakistan accountable. Both are bad options. - M K Bhadrakumar (Feb 23, '07)

COMMENT
British leave Basra to its own devices
British Prime Minister Tony Blair admits that the southern Iraqi city of Basra, from where British troops will withdraw, "is not how we want it to be". It's also likely not what many Iraqis would like it to be. Sunnis have been forced out in fear of their lives and the city is in the grip of Shi'ite militias and ultra-conservative moral police. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 23, '07)

Tehran falling into a US psy-ops trap
The US is increasingly waging psychological warfare to influence Iranian behavior in Iraq and to force the Islamic Republic to climb down in negotiations over its nuclear program. Iran dismisses US ally Saudi Arabia's new pro-active foreign policy as a part of this psy-op war. This could be a bad miscalculation and in fact bolster the position of Iran's only serious regional rival. - Mahan Abedin (Feb 22, '07)

Iran goes down to the wire
Although the UN's deadline for Iran to stop its uranium-enrichment activities has passed with no sign of Tehran complying, there is still time for negotiations. The EU's foreign-policy chief has placed a proposal on the table, as have the Swiss. It all depends on whether the US wants dialogue, or confrontation that could lead to war. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Feb 22, '07)

Fighting the wrong war in Afghanistan
Each of the 34,000 NATO soldiers in Afghanistan costs an average of US$5,000 a month to maintain, while the average Afghan soldier takes home $60 a month, despite the billions of dollars being thrown at the country. And after five years, the Taliban are as strong as ever. Clearly, something does not add up. (Feb 22, '07)

Rice faces formidable White House foe
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice seems determined to make concrete progress toward achieving a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine problem. That may seem good news. But her efforts are being fought at every turn by Elliott Abrams, a powerfully well-connected neo-conservative who has been battling against peace deals for decades. - Jim Lobe (Feb 22, '07)

US gets new eyes and ears in the sky
After years of negotiations, Australia has agreed to host a new US military communications base. The facility will relay data, including instant intelligence, graphics and maps, from a new generation of satellites to ground forces in Asia and the Middle East. The base will also link with a mysterious giant global signals eavesdropping web that the US operates - and which has been exploited for commercial espionage. - Alan Boyd (Feb 21, '07)

Iraq's contracts to die for
Even though nearly 1,000 have been killed or wounded in Iraq, the role played by private security contractors is largely underplayed. Now that the Democrats are in the majority in the US Congress, some light is being shed on this netherworld, and it is not a pretty picture. - David Isenberg (Feb 21, '07)

It all comes down to control
Noam Chomsky, noted linguist, author and foreign-policy expert, discusses wide-ranging issues from Iran, Iraq and North Korea to Latin America, Palestine-Israel and global warming with Michael Shank. A common thread in all of these issues is how the rest of the world must obey the dictates of Washington. (Feb 21, '07)

India grapples with terrorist bulls
India's admission that terror groups are investing in and even manipulating its stock markets has resulted in renewed scrutiny of such instruments as participatory notes. These allow investors to remain anonymous and account for half the foreign money flowing into the markets, but previous attempts to ban or restrict them have failed. - Indrajit Basu (Feb 20, '07)

The smugglers of Iran's Kordestan
They are Sunnis in a land of Shi'ites, Kurds in a land of Persians. Tehran would rather they remained out of sight and out of mind in their remote northwestern homeland. But with the Kurds active in smuggling into neighboring Iraq and harboring separatist ideas, they can't be ignored. (Feb 20, '07)

Russia straddles the Sunni-Shi'ite divide
Russia is succeeding in the Middle East where the US has failed, winning friends and influencing governments through open, measured diplomacy that exposes Washington double-speak and seeks to unite rather than divide. This is the region where tensions in Russia-US relations are sharpest, and Moscow, without having to confront Washington directly, has ample scope to operate in the power vacuum left by the loss of US influence. - M K Bhadrakumar (Feb 16, '07)

Neo-cons pull their punches on Iran
Considering the many signs pointing to a US attack on Iran, the cheering section that called for war on Iraq is strangely muted, in contrast with the public relations buildup in neo-conservative media that preceded the Iraq invasion in 2003. - Jim Lobe (Feb 16, '07)

THE UNDERTAKER'S TALLY, Part 2
The power and the glory
"The absence of evidence is not necessarily the evidence of absence," Donald Rumsfeld once said. Historian and author Roger Morris considers the evidence of how the former defense secretary changed the world for the worse.
This is the conclusion of a two-part article. (Feb 16, '07)

Muqtada: Here, there and everywhere 
The US says Iraqi "kingmaker" Muqtada al-Sadr has fled to Iran, an unlikely destination for someone who has consistently distanced himself from Tehran. Muqtada's supporters say he is still in Iraq. It could all be a plot hatched by Muqtada and embattled Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, or even by the US. Either way, Muqtada will be back. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 15, '07)

An accident waiting to happen in Iran
As the US continues to point accusing fingers at Iran over its suspected meddling in Iraq, Tehran believes that Washington is trying to needle it into a rash response. The killing of 11 elite Iranian officers in one of Iran's restive provinces is exactly the type of provocation Iran has to guard against lest an uneasy calm turn into an "accidental" storm. - Iason Athanasiadis (Feb 15, '07)

ASIA HAND
Dimming peace prospects for Thai south
The hope that the military rulers of Thailand, headed by a Muslim, would bring a fresh and successful approach to the insurgency in the south is rapidly waning. Since prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted, the conflict has intensified, not subsided. - Shawn W Crispin (Feb 15, '07)

THE UNDERTAKER'S TALLY, Part 1
Donald Rumsfeld's sharp elbows
Former US secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld's career catches much of the political history that has led the US into its present difficulties. Roger Morris, former member of the US National Security Council turned historian and author, explores both the "known unknowns" and the "unknown unknowns" of Rumsfeld's emblematic history and legacy.
This is the first part of a two-part article. (Feb 15, '07)

US's smoking gun on Iran misfires
The Bush administration's latest attempt to show that the Iranian government is providing weapons to Iraqi Shi'ites undermines its political line by in fact revealing that it has been unable to find any real evidence. This is a serious setback to the administration's campaign to convince Congress to support its increased aggressiveness toward Tehran. - Gareth Porter (Feb 14, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
Iran, the EU and the Swiss way out 
The Swiss propose that Iran stops feeding its centrifuges with processed uranium hexafluoride gas so that negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program can resume. Iran has indicated a willingness to talk, yet all the heavily disunited European Union appears capable of doing is shooting itself in the foot. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 14, '07)

SPEAKING FREELY
The mother of all genocides
There are too many similarities between Iraq today and Yugoslavia before and during its breakup or, worse, Rwanda before the massacres took place there. If Iraq descends further into chaos, it could spark a regional war that may prove to be one of the largest conflicts the world has ever seen. - Murtaza Mohsin (Feb 13, '07)

Death Street: A prelude to madness
The first battle in George W Bush's new Iraq strategy began even before the US president made his televised address announcing it. US troops attacked Haifa - "Death" - Street just outside the Green Zone, leaving a trail of destruction. The battle shows that Bush's new strategy will measurably increase the violence in Baghdad above already intolerable levels. - Michael Schwartz (Feb 13, '07)

How the US is doing Iran's killing in Iraq
Washington is making much fuss about Iran allegedly arming militants in Iraq. Yet it seems the US military itself is being duped into doing Tehran's dirty work. In the recent massacre at Najaf, US forces were deployed at the pro-Iranian Baghdad government's bidding to attack anti-government and anti-Iran tribespeople. Over 260 pilgrims were killed in the attack, many by US and British gunships. - Dahr Jamail and Ali al-Fadhily (Feb 12, '07)

Black Hawks down in Iraq quagmire
US helicopters in Iraq are being shot out of the sky with unusual regularity recently as Iraqi insurgents take their fight against the US occupation to a new level of lethality. The US military has been forced to revise its tactics and techniques, reminiscent of the Soviets' losing battle against Stinger missiles in Afghanistan. - Iason Athanasiadis (Feb 12, '07)

US shrugs off Iran's revolutionary spirit
The famous utterance "America can't do a damn thing" still reverberates throughout Iran on the 28th anniversary of its revolution that overthrew a US client state, delivering yet another blow to today's advocates of regime change in Tehran. Despite dire warnings of "catastrophic consequences", the US march toward confrontation continues. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Feb 12, '07)

SPEAKING FREELY
US force-marches Israel over Syria
Israel is no more likely than the US to defeat its enemies on the battlefield. Its arms have been neutralized, as seen in the war with Hezbollah. Sections within Israel see peace accords as the way forward, starting with Syria. The US, which has war, not peace, at the top of its agenda, has scuttled the initiative. - Gabriel Kolko (Feb 12, '07)

How the 'security' charade plays in Baghdad
Everybody involved in Iraq's bloody sectarian warfare - from the Americans to the Sunni insurgents - knows that the Shi'ite Mehdi Army will not be seriously targeted in Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's supposed "security" operation to tame Baghdad. While the charade continues, the Sunni-Shi'ite divide widens, helped along by the latest gruesome beheading video. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 9, '07)

The US's pricey fighting flops
The apparent inability of the US Air Force's new F-22, the most expensive fighter aircraft ever built, to play an effective role in Iraq counterinsurgency operations highlights how technological innovation in the military increasingly fails to produce more efficient weapons. Paradoxically, however, this may be a good thing in the long run. (Feb 9, '07)

Islam as a political issue in China
US President George W Bush got some criticism for characterizations he made of Muslims from an unusual source recently: the director of China's religious-affairs bureau, Ye Xiaowen. Was it a bid by China to win favor among Muslims in the "clash of civilizations" or just a case of the pot calling the kettle black? (Feb 9, '07)

An uphill battle on Baghdad's mean streets
Successful counterinsurgency involves separating guerrillas, physically and politically, from the local populace. The latest US-inspired battle of Baghdad, aimed primarily at clearing the streets of Sunni insurgents, will not easily be able to achieve this, in part because of the sophistication of Ba'athist organizations. - Brian M Downing (Feb 8, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
Slouching toward D-day
The battle for Baghdad has officially begun. It's a double bill involving suppression of Sunni militants and defanging Sadr City, the vast Shi'ite enclave that staunchly backs cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mehdi Army. This counterinsurgency against classic guerrilla tactics with popular support is doomed. Inevitably, Iran will be blamed. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 8, '07)

Shi'ite power a law unto itself
It seems ironic now, but the neo-conservatives who pushed for the invasion of Iraq counted on the Shi'ite majority actually becoming the allies of the US - and Israel! - in containing Iran. By the time they realized their error, it was too late to put the genie of sectarian civil war back in the bottle. - Gareth Porter (Feb 7, '07)

A US sea-change over Iran
Despite the Bush administration's public disavowals that it plans to attack Iran directly, the disposition of US forces in the Persian Gulf puts these in serious doubt. Iran will have noted that Admiral William Fallon, the new commander in the region, has no experience fighting insurgents but is an expert in carrier-borne air strikes. - Jason Motlagh (Feb 7, '07)

More bang for the buck
President George W Bush's proposed 2008 Pentagon budget of US$623 billion is well above that of all of the rest of the world's defense budgets combined and means that the Pentagon expects to spend nearly $12 billion a month on Iraq and Afghanistan next year. And these are likely "low-ball" estimates. - Jim Lobe (Feb 7, '07)

Bombs away over Baghdad
By withholding figures on the expenditure of various kinds of munitions in air strikes, the Pentagon conceals information on the size, scope and damage involved in its air operations in Iraq. In the coming months, however, as the US "surge" in Baghdad bites, the true nature of the air war - and the devastation it causes - will emerge. - Nick Turse (Feb 7, '07)

SPENGLER
Hopeless, but not serious
If individuals or indeed entire peoples are determined to destroy themselves, as they clearly are in Iraq and Palestine, it is extremely difficult to prevent them from doing so. And while such self-destruction is tragic on a human level, it makes little real difference to anyone outside the conflict, and certainly not to Western markets.  (Feb 5, '07)

Now it's official: Iraq's a mess
Just in case they needed reminding ahead of passing a non-binding resolution on President George W Bush's plans to send more troops to Iraq, US senators have it officially: a civil war is raging in Iraq and the country's troubles won't end any time soon. The US intelligence community's report also debunks a frequent Bush claim that Iran plays a major role in support of Shi'ite militias. - Jim Lobe (Feb 5, '07)

Taliban too quick off the mark
The Taliban, by taking over the city of Musa Qala in Helmand province, have scored a short-term victory in their battle against NATO-led troops. But the move ends a landmark ceasefire accord that was crucial to the Taliban's preparations for a massive spring offensive, and could force them into a premature confrontation for which they are not yet prepared. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 5, '07)

Lawmakers move to restrain Bush on Iran
Members of the US Congress are lining up to introduce resolutions that would limit President George W Bush's ability to attack Iran. Most of them are non-binding or could be circumvented by an administration bent on war. Can the "resoliferation" of unenforceable resolutions really accomplish anything? - Jim Lobe (Feb 2, '07)

Political curtain-raiser for the Taliban
The Afghan Parliament has granted immunity to all Afghans involved in the country's 25 years of conflict. This sends a strong message that politicians in Kabul are acutely aware of the gathering momentum of the Taliban's spring offensive, and are doing some political groundwork for them. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 2, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
A massacre and a new civil war
The massacre at Najaf points to a Baghdad-concocted operation designed to torpedo an increasingly popular, non-sectarian Sunni and Shi'ite Iraqi nationalist alliance that is anti-US and anti-Iran. In the process, yet another civil war could emerge - "Arab" Shi'ites against "Persian" Shi'ites. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 2, '07)

Pilgrims massacred in the 'battle' of Najaf
The Iraqi government has variously claimed that the more than 200 people killed by security forces near Najaf last Sunday were foreign Arab fighters, Sunni militants, al-Qaeda, and a Shi'ite splinter extremist group. Most of the dead were in fact local Shi'ite Iraqis. The finger of blame points directly at the central government in Baghdad. - Dahr Jamail and Ali al-Fadhily (Feb 1, '07)

Iraq's money for nothing
Millions of dollars earmarked for the reconstruction and security of Iraq have been squandered on such luxury items as an Olympic-sized swimming pool and buildings that were never used, a US government watchdog says. Lawmakers are now asking questions about fraud and corruption. (Feb 1, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
The 'axis of fear' is born
Amid the ruins of occupied Iraq, the Bush administration has found a new scapegoat: exit al-Qaeda, enter Iran. The Sunni Arab "axis of fear" is merrily playing along, stoking the sectarianism that underlies Washington's plans for a "new Middle East". - Pepe Escobar (Feb 1, '07)

January 2007