April 2007

How Pakistan settled an al-Qaeda score
The US has only now confirmed that it captured senior al-Qaeda operative Abdul Hadi al-Iraqi late last year, and that he has been sent to Guantanamo Bay. Credit for Hadi's downfall, though, goes to Pakistan, which had a score to settle with the man involved in several attempts on the life of President General Pervez Musharraf and who refused to cooperate with the Taliban. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr 30, '07)

Iran's long road to Sharm al-Sheikh
Although Iran will send its foreign minister to this week's security conference on Iraq, Tehran is going out of its way to preempt any backlashes at or after the conference. First, it has to break major ice with Washington without at the same time appearing to be appeasing US hegemony. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 30, '07)

All power to US's shadow army in Iraq
The Democratic "withdrawal" proposal, embedded in the bill passed by the US House and Senate, not only wouldn't withdraw all US forces from Iraq, it does not touch the United States' "shadow army" in that country. These are the tens of thousands of armed private security contractors who fight and work alongside US forces, with some of them earning more than the defense secretary. - Jeremy Scahill (Apr 30, '07)

The Turkish military weighs in
The nomination of Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul for president has hit a raw nerve in Turkey over concerns of growing Islamist influence within the government. Not only have hundreds of thousands taken to the streets, the military, which has staged four coups since 1950, has taken up the issue. (Apr 30, '07)

SPEAKING FREELY
Little to cheer on Afghan anniversary
Exactly 29 years since a Moscow-inspired coup set Afghanistan on a spiral of uninterrupted chaos, the situation remains bleak and bloody. If the United States wants to save Afghanistan, the Taliban must be decisively defeated this year so that massive reconstruction programs can begin. Failure will have profound, long-term consequences on the "war on terror". - James Emery (Apr 27, '07)

BOOK REVIEW
Compromising ideologies
Inside Hamas by Zaki Chehab
The election of Hamas last year was a turning point in Palestinian history with ramifications that will be felt for years. London-based Arab journalist Zaki Chehab provides a colorful first-hand account of the movement, both loved and hated, that must play a central role in any resolution of the Israeli-Arab conflict. - Simon Martelli (Apr 27, '07)

A US recipe for endless war in Iraq
The notion of a two-sided war in the Sunni heartland of Iraq between al-Qaeda and US forces bolsters the Bush administration's position that any talk of a timetable for withdrawal is defeatist. To avoid such accusations, the Democrat legislation setting a timetable for withdrawal contains large loopholes that would allow US troops to carry out operations in the Sunni area indefinitely. This political gamesmanship ignores the anti-al-Qaeda Sunni resistance organizations, which represent a clear alternative to an endless US occupation. - Gareth Porter (Apr 26, '07)

The Middle East road to impeachment
The White House-Congress tug-of-war over the Iraq war budget, combined with growing voices in Congress in support of a timetable for troop withdrawal, reflect a new congressional assertiveness in the area of foreign policy. Democrat Dennis Kucinich's impeachment bill against Vice President Dick Cheney gives new depth to this momentum. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 26, '07)

The temperature rises in Kirkuk
The Kurds have to date been the United States' most reliable partner in Iraq's fractious political landscape. But as tensions rise in oil-rich Kirkuk over it possibly becoming "Kurdish", and Washington remains in the background, the risks of violence spreading from the south to the relatively peaceful area increase dramatically. - Jason Motlagh (Apr 26, '07)

Shi'ite power struggle escalates
Clashes between Shi'ite groups in the predominately Shi'ite city of Diwaniya illustrate an increase in the level of rivalry between Shi'ite militias in the main urban centers in southern Iraq. Primarily, Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army is fighting for the hearts and minds of the country's Shi'ites. Diwaniya is the powder keg. (Apr 25, '07)

Basra splits between warring Shi'ites
The Shi'ite group led by Muqtada al-Sadr, who recently ordered his supporters to quit their posts in the cabinet, has lately turned against the governor of Basra because he belongs to a rival faction. But other Shi'ites have misgivings about Muqtada and his followers who are perceived as being too close to Iran. (Apr 24, '07)

More muscle to Pakistan's madrassas
The heart of Islamabad's strategy to isolate Muslim extremism is reforming the seminaries, but five years after its inception, the program is a failure. The rapid escalation of violence orchestrated by extremists has led President General Pervez Musharraf's military regime to revisit the idea of madrassa reforms. (Apr 24, '07)

The revenge of the Ba'athists
The latest US-inspired initiative in Iraq to reach out to Sunnis is in full throttle. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is playing along as much as he can, and the recent withdrawal from Maliki's cabinet of Shi'ite ministers belonging to Muqtada al-Sadr's faction was engineered to appease the Sunnis. But the real test for Maliki - and the country - comes in the form of a bill before Parliament that aims to significantly rehabilitate the previously "disgraced" Ba'athists. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 23, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
We build walls, not nations
The 5-kilometer-long, 3.7-meter-high concrete wall being built to contain the Sunni neighborhood of Adhamiyah in Baghdad will fail, even if Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki doesn't manage to get it stopped. The US cannot cut off the head of the resistance in Iraq - simply because there is no head. Talking to the nine recently united leading Sunni Arab resistance groups would be a better idea. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 23, '07)

Iran, US take their fight to Afghanistan
In the Bush administration's latest offensive against Iran, Tehran is implied to be arming the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. Washington could not be further off the mark, as Tehran has a fundamental problem with the Taliban's virulent anti-Shi'ite ideology. Certainly, though, the Iranians are not above meddling in Afghanistan's affairs, if only to make the US realize that its support of anti-Iranian terrorism from Afghan soil comes at a heavy price. - M K Bhadrakumar (Apr 20, '07)

Waiting for Godot - but only Gates arrives
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates says that diplomacy with Iran is working. It's not. The prospects for normalization are as bleak as ever and the rhetoric relentless: Iran is accused of aiding Shi'ite groups as well as "extreme Sunni" groups in Iraq, and said to be adding to the turmoil in Afghanistan. Iranians are wondering why they should bother to participate in next month's Iraq security summit. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 20, '07)

Iran all bluff and bluster, but no bomb - yet
Despite the effectiveness of modern electronic intelligence gathering, the lack of enough human resources on the ground within Iran has severely hampered an accurate analysis of the country's nuclear weapons intent or capability. What Iran does have, though, is sophisticated long-range ballistic missile systems and the capacity for chemical and biological warfare. - Richard M Bennett (Apr 20, '07)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The revenge of the political man
Oh, for those heady days before September 11, 2001, when globalism was cool and the future belonged to Asia, not the Middle East. Then everything changed and the "Economic Man" went into eclipse; "Political Man" stood tall. With the waning of the neo-cons, however, there are signs that the pendulum may be swinging back. - Leon Hadar (Apr 20, '07)

Iraq violence resurges amid 'surge'
Although there are some signs of success in Baghdad, namely fewer civilians killed by death squads, it is hard to find much evidence that President George W Bush's "surge" strategy is turning the tide in Iraq. Much of the violence has simply migrated to other parts of the country. - Jim Lobe (Apr 20, '07)

North Korea's burden of crime and terror
While there have been no signs in recent years of North Korean support for international terrorism, the country remains on the US list of terrorism-supporting countries. Allegations against Pyongyang of involvement in criminal activities, from drugs to counterfeiting, are more persuasive. The two issues of terrorism and criminality stand firmly in the way of normalization of relations between North Korea and the US, despite "progress" at the six-party talks on Pyongyang's nuclear program. - Bertil Lintner (Apr 19, '07)

SPEAKING FREELY
Iraq war: A nice little earner
Taking control of Iraq's oil is not the primary motivation behind the invasion of Iraq. The real aim is war-profiteering by Pentagon contractors, which - like tax cuts for the affluent - is a regulatory mechanism for shifting America's wealth from the lower and middle economic stratas to the top. - Ismael Hossein-zadeh (Apr 19, '07)

What Turkey teaches about democracy
Angry nationalists, ignoring the inner contradictions of their stance, have taken to the streets in Turkey over the possibility of Islamist Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan running for president, even though the country has flourished under his five-year premiership. More than any US-inspired democratization program for the Middle East, Turkey has shown that Islamic democracy can be a better alternative than Arab secular autocracy. And that is causing sleepless nights for the region's regimes. - M K Bhadrakumar (Apr 18, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
Hezbollah's big challenge
In Iraq, the US pits its Shi'ite collaborators against "other" Shi'ites and assorted Sunnis. In Lebanon, the US places its Sunni clients in opposition to Shi'ites, with help from jihadis linked to al-Qaeda. Hezbollah's challenge is to prevent this from developing into a regional Sunni-Shi'ite war. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 18, '07)

Two wars, one approach
From Afghanistan, the Iraqi insurgency has skillfully adopted the media as a propaganda tool and is learning to counter helicopters. Afghans, meanwhile, are increasingly using improvised explosive devices and suicide bombers, Iraq-style. Clearly, the insurgencies are shaping a common approach to war against Western conventional military forces. - Michael Scheuer (Apr 18, '07)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA The devil's dictionary of war in Iraq The Bush administration's war vocabulary and imagery of the past four years is missing in action. The "turned corners", "tipping points" and "milestones" on the way to "victory" have disappeared. A new set of words and images is being implanted, which mine a deep vein in the US national psyche: the belief in an all-American right to a second chance. - Tom Engelhardt (Apr 18, '07)

Muqtada and Maliki as united as ever
Although Shi'ite leader Muqtada al-Sadr has withdrawn his six ministers from Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's cabinet, he has not gone as far as pulling his deputies out of Parliament. That would surely have scuttled the Iraqi government. Despite what they want the world to believe, Muqtada and Maliki need each other, if only to keep their nemesis - former premier Iyad Allawi - out of power. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 17, '07)

The city where al-Qaeda reigns
Baquba has become the city of the living dead, where a shrinking population huddles inside their homes for fear of being shot by insurgents or al-Qaeda. The latter controls increasing chunks of the ancient city, situated just 50 kilometers from Baghdad. - Dahr Jamail (Apr 17, '07)

A dose of democracy for Pakistan
With Pakistan facing a renewed al-Qaeda threat, the US is increasing pressure on President General Pervez Musharraf to embrace democratic forces. It is hoped that these forces, represented by people like former premier Benazir Bhutto, will address the grassroots unrest from which al-Qaeda and militant organizations draw their support. Embattled Musharraf has few other options. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr 17, '07)

SPEAKING FREELY
Afghanistan in a downward spiral
The situation in Afghanistan continues to deteriorate. In retrospect, the 2004 presidential election was the high point. In addition to the Taliban resurgence in the south, President Harmid Karzai faces other intractable problems such as lack of jobs. Some might say that the real problem is a lack of natural leaders. - Haroun Mir (Apr 17, '07)

The nightmare Bush dreads most
The 73-year-old Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and young cleric Muqtada al-Sadr make for a formidable partnership, which has never bent to Washington's will. Anyone who can put a million demonstrators on the street is a power to be reckoned with. Add to that a seasoning of Sunni cooperation and you have President George W Bush's worst nightmare. - Dilip Hiro (Apr 16, '07)

An army popping at the seams
The "surge" in Iraq and other commitments continue to play havoc with the combat readiness of the US Army. Some units are being rotated back to Iraq after spending less than one year refitting at home. Many soldiers are seeing the longest combat tours experienced by the US since World War II. - David Isenberg (Apr 16, '07)

Wolfowitz postings went to war backers
Of the top five outside international appointments made by embattled World Bank president Paul Wolfowitz, three were senior political appointees of right-wing governments that provided strong backing for US policy in Iraq. Meanwhile, Wolfowitz is receiving support from politicians and publications that backed his role as an architect of the war in Iraq. - Emad Mekay and Jim Lobe (Apr 16, '07)

Iraqi Kurds play with Turkish fire
Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani has angered Ankara by threatening to stoke the fires of Kurdish sub-nationalism within Turkey. At the same time, Turkey has gone against the US and asked Iraqi leaders directly if Turkish troops can cross the border to strike Kurdish rebel groups. Armed confrontation is becoming a distinct possibility. And Turkey holds a telling bargaining card: the longed-for establishment of an Iraqi Kurdish political entity can only happen with Turkish cooperation. - M K Bhadrakumar (Apr 13, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
The Baghdad gulag
The million-man Shi'ite march in Najaf coupled with the spectacular bombing of the Iraqi Parliament in the Green Zone truly spells the end of the US in Iraq. The only thing left is to turn Baghdad into a cluster of self-contained gated communities - a gulag - where a few can feel safe from the chaos around them. But isn't the Green Zone a gated community? - Pepe Escobar (Apr 13, '07)

Generals don't want war czar job, no sir
Help wanted: Overseer of the Bush administration's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. So far, three retired generals who have been offered the position of "war czar" have turned it down. At least one of them objects to the underlying assumption that the job would entail prolonging, not ending, the conflicts. - Ehsan Ahrari (Apr 12, '07)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The theater of the imperially absurd
The Bush administration saw it as its destiny as "the last superpower" to deal with rogue states in an "arc of instability" that was said to extend from North Africa through the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan up to the Chinese border. The arc actually wasn't all that unstable. It is now. - Tom Engelhardt (Apr 12, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
Night bus from Baghdad
In the mythology of US neo-cons, Syria is a sanctuary where jihadis rest and regroup before heading into Iraq on another bombing run. The reality is quite the opposite, as one can see at the Syria-Iraq border. The traffic is all one-way - in the direction of Syria, where tens of thousands of ordinary Iraqis now live a precarious, but safe, life far from the hell of Baghdad. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 12, '07)

The al-Qaeda 'caravan' visits Algiers
The decision by Algeria's Salafist Group for Call and Combat to pledge allegiance to Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda fits well into the primary mission bin Laden has defined for his organization: instigating and inspiring Muslims to move their focus toward Islam's far enemy, the US and its allies. Nevertheless, as Wednesday's bomb attacks in the Algerian capital Algiers illustrate, this does not mean Islamists will stop attacking targets in their own country. - Michael Scheuer (Apr 12, '07)

Pakistan: Trouble in the mosque
Squads of "vice and virtue" students are patrolling the heart of Islamabad Taliban-style to seek the closure of music and video shops and other "immoral" establishments. The mosque with which they are affiliated - a potent symbol of the power of the radical Islamists - has challenged the government by calling for the declaration of Islamic law in Pakistan. Waiting in the wings are broader forces such as al-Qaeda, which see the beginning of a Pakistani caliphate. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr 11, '07)

Hot air over Taliban talks
Afghan President Hamid Karzai's announcement that he is in closed-door discussions with the Taliban has angered his political rivals. Their ire stems not so much from the fact that he is "talking with the terrorists" as from their fear that the move will strengthen the president's base in the Pashtun heartland. And then there is the multibillion-dollar narcotics business to consider. - Philip Smucker (Apr 11, '07)

Icing on the capitulation cake
The release of 15 British sailors and marines from Iranian captivity was another occasion for neo-conservatives and other right-wing pundits to fulminate against a decadent, spineless West. Interestingly, few of these critics were British. But the last word, and potential payback, may come from the tabloid press as it publishes some of the stories of the captives. (Apr 11, '07)

Rulers and the ruled: Dangerous disconnect
Americans and others are rightly nervous about much Iranian policy, but Iranians - and a growing number of Americans - are also nervous about US policy. In fact, much of Iran's behavior is understandable (how would Americans react if Iran had invaded neighboring Mexico?), but in Tehran, as in Washington, policy - foreign and domestic - is not driven by the people. - Noam Chomsky (Apr 11, '07)

Abe trumpets Iraq support ahead of US visit
When Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe meets with US President George W Bush in Washington this month, he will come bearing gifts. The most important is his government's support for a two-year extension of its air force mission in Kuwait and Iraq. Though its involvement is unpopular at home, Japan has been a steadfast partner of the US missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. - Hisane Masaki (Apr 11, '07)

Muqtada raises the stakes in Iraq
Muqtada al-Sadr's call for Iraqi soldiers to break with the Americans and his organization of a massive protest rally against the occupation mark an escalation in the powerful Shi'ite cleric's anti-US activities. The political woes of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki could push Muqtada further down this path of confrontation. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 10, '07)

The chimera of Arab solidarity
The results of the recent Arab summit in Riyadh only underscore the fact that the idea of "Arab solidarity" under Saudi Arabia's leadership is a chimera. The US looks to Saudi Arabia and the other allies in the "Arab Quartet" as a bulwark against Iran's expanding influence, but these countries do not necessarily want to toe America's line. - M K Bhadrakumar (Apr 10, '07)

A win, win, win ending for Tehran
Iran is basking in international praise for its deft handling of the crisis caused by its seizure of 15 British servicemen. The episode has also strengthened Tehran's hand in the "other" crisis, its uranium enrichment program which, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad now boasts, has attained "industrial scale". The US is likely to be further sidelined as the EU takes the lead in nuclear negotiations. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 10, '07)

Iran takes the wind out of US sails 
Iran's unconditional release of the 15 British sailors and marines it had been holding for two weeks has shown the West that engaging Tehran with respect and as an equal is more likely to pay off than threats and confrontation. At the same time the episode has demonstrated Iran's ability to play a dangerous tit-for-tat game with its enemies. It just got a lot harder for the US to justify a military attack on the country. - Jim Lobe (Apr 5, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
In the heart of Little Fallujah
The hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees in Syria have created their own enclaves, from Little Fallujah to Little Mosul, where many have set up businesses. They pay in US dollars, dance to the tune of their own music and share one desire: to return to an Iraq free of occupying forces. Madam Speaker Nancy Pelosi would have learned a lot if she had taken a stroll in Little Fallujah. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 5, '07)

Was it really Pelosi in Damascus?
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Syria has seemingly raised the ire of President George W Bush. Yet Bush needs a back channel to Damascus to help stabilize Lebanon and Palestine - and, more important, Iraq. Who better to do it than Pelosi, while saving Bush some face? That Damascus has to be engaged is evident by the role it played in securing the release of British sailors and marines from Iran. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 5, '07)

A Turkish puzzle over Iraq
As Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan ponders whether or not to run for president next month, the political fallout intensifies. Erdogan's decision, though, has equally important ramifications in northern Iraq, where the Kurds are moving closer to virtual independence. Erdogan, as premier, is the man most capable of preventing the situation in Iraq from escalating into military intervention on Ankara's part. - M K Bhadrakumar (Apr 5, '07)

Rights, wrongs of Asia's 'war on terror'
Recent killings of Abu Sayyaf leaders has put the counter-terrorism spotlight on the Philippines. The real success story, however, is in Indonesia, where good intelligence gathering and effective police work rather than brute military force have shown the world that the forces of law and order can be effective weapons against terrorists. - Michael Vatikiotis (Apr 5, '07)

US dangles tempting bait for Iran
The British indicate a willingness to talk directly to Iran over its seizure of their sailors, while the US releases an Iranian envoy it had captured in Baghdad. London's willingness for dialogue can only be viewed as positive. Washington's move could yet turn out as "bait" for Iran's hardliners. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 4, '07)

SPEAKING FREELY
A steady squeeze on Tehran
US economic pressure is mounting against Iran. While efforts to stop oil companies investing in Iran have produced mixed results, pressure via the financial sector has been more effective. At the same time, efforts to strengthen domestic opposition forces in Iran continue, as does the propaganda war. - Amandeep Sandhu  (Apr 4, '07)

Condi's free ride in the Middle East
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has taken up "shuttle diplomacy'' in the Middle East with a new-found vigor, but unlike Henry Kissinger's efforts 30 years ago, Condi's is an empty pose while Saudi Arabia does the hard work. And Rice gets a free ride from the press to boot. - Tony Karon (Apr 4, '07)

Not for your average jihadi Presumably, it doesn't take much knowledge for a suicide bomber to wrap a belt of explosives around his waist, but to put in practice the advice contained in "Technical Mujahid" requires some sophistication. The online publication covers advanced encryption and anti-aircraft weapons. It is an example of how the Internet is used to train mujahideen in subjects ranging from weapons to secure communications. (Apr 4, '07)

When a readiness 'crisis' is a real crisis
Politicians in the US often raise the false specter of a readiness "crisis" in the armed forces to win votes. Now there is evidence of a real crisis. The Defense Department is arbitrarily raising the readiness ratings of army units to keep troops flowing to Iraq. Says one officer: "We're at an all-time low." - David Isenberg (Apr 3, '07)

Shi'ite power bloc in Iraq takes shape
After some stormy times, young cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and the highest-ranking Shi'ite ayatollah, Ali Sistani, have connected. The swing of alliances highlights the unpredictable politics of the Shi'ite community and the ascendency of Sistani and his clerical elite in Iraq. Both Tehran and Muqtada know that Sistani should not be ignored. The US should know it too. (Apr 3, '07)

Under the gun in Afghanistan
In what is already one of the most hostile working environments in the world for journalists, there are troubling signs amid deteriorating security that the Afghan government and some of its Western allies are attempting to restrict the press. The Taliban, meanwhile, remain prepared simply to execute dissenting voices. - Philip Smucker (Apr 3, '07)

A Falklands War in the Gulf
Many in Britain today pine for the glory days of the Falklands War, when the indomitable Margaret Thatcher would tolerate no nonsense from the Argentines. Prime Minister Tony Blair is too compromised by his support for the illegal war on Iraq to strike such a pose. A fair adjudication on the British sailors would clear up a lot of uncertainties in the Persian Gulf. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 2, '07)

Iran, US: Fighting fire with fire
Whether or not the British sailors and marines were in Iranian or Iraqi waters is hardly relevant. Tehran is using the incident to regain some of the leverage it lost recently in its duel with the US, in which Britain is very much a small player and thus safer to attack. Over to you, Mr Bush. - Trita Parsi (Apr 2, '07)

Pakistan's man in the middle
Pakistan's political parties are due to take to the streets on Tuesday as they step up their campaign against the government of President General Pervez Musharraf. Militants, expanding from their traditional bases in the tribal areas, are ready to exploit the situation. Both sides view Qazi Hussain Ahmed, the head of an Islamist political party, as playing a crucial role in the crisis. Syed Saleem Shahzad talks to Qazi. (Apr 2, '07)