June 2007


US, Iran: Taking talks to the next level
Pressure is mounting to move the nascent US-Iran talks from a strict focus on Iraq to the next level. Supporters speak of sustained, strategic dialogue. At the same time, momentum for stricter sanctions against Tehran is receding among key European countries. Thus the stage is set for a real breakthrough. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun 29, '07)

What Tenet knew
Author Thomas Powers, expert on the Central Intelligence Agency, considers the "great open question of the decade" - how the US got into Iraq - in the context of CIA director George Tenet's new memoir. He presents a devastating, slam-dunk account of what Tenet must have known about President George W Bush's intentions on Iraq. In the process, he explores just why the CIA seemed incapable of producing actual, serviceable, accurate "intelligence". (Jun 29, '07)

Pakistan to help as US's jailer
With the Bush administration under pressure to close the US detention facility at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, plans have been made to relocate some of its "war on terror" captives to the countries of their origin. In Pakistan, construction has already begun on new special jails in three cities, paid for by the US. Inmates can expect a long wait for their day in court. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jun 28, '07)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Surging past the gates of hell
Since January, while 28,500 new US troops have "surged" into Iraq, there has been a hidden surge of private armed contractors as well. Other telltale numbers in Iraq have also surged - from the number of Iraqi refugees to the percentage of American soldiers killed by roadside bombs. - Tom Engelhardt (Jun 28, '07)

A deadly blow for Iraqi reconciliation
The killing of prominent Sunni tribal leaders in Baghdad appears an obvious response to attempts by these influential players to work with Shi'ites to isolate al-Qaeda in Iraq. At the same time, it's also in the interests of embattled Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to speak reconciliation with the Sunnis, yet do his best to scare them out of the political process altogether. - Sami Moubayed (Jun 27, '07)

A Republican 'surge' against Bush
In a move that is "sending shock waves" through Capitol Hill, three key Republican senators are backing a call for the White House to revise US strategy in Iraq before September, when a report on the "surge" is due. Democrats see it as a turning point in the standoff between the administration and their party. - Jim Lobe (Jun 27, '07)

Chitral now on the jihadi radar screen
Mountainous Chitral is supposed to be a quiet zone, indeed a tourist destination (Osama bin Laden is rumored to be a guest), compared with other troubled tribal regions of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province. Philip Smucker finds that the region is emerging as key staging ground for jihadis fighting in Afghanistan. The lure of the madrassas is proving irresistible to impressionable minds. (Jun 27, '07)

Soviet-era weapons arming the Taliban
Those weapons that the Taliban are using in Afghanistan are mostly "made in Russia" rather than "made in Iran". True, the arms caches are in the north, near the Russian border, while the Taliban are in the south. No problem. At US$200 profit per AK47, there are plenty of smugglers to get the arms into the hands of the insurgents. (Jun 27, '07)

THE GATES INHERITANCE, Part 3
The world that Bob made
The new US secretary of defense travels the American world, to Kabul and Baghdad in particular, where he frets about Tehran - only to find himself confronting the consequences of the misdeeds of his younger self. In the first two parts of this three-part series, Roger Morris covered the world and spy agency that "made Bob". Now, he turns to the world that Bob made. It's a tale of terror bombs and secret plots, of internecine warfare within the CIA and in the Hindu Kush. (Jun 26, '07)

    Part 1: The tortured world of US intelligence

    Part 2: Great games and famous victories

Fast and furious with the Taliban
British patrols in Helmand province have developed "get in, get out" tactics that rely on speed and mobility to tackle the Taliban. In turn, the insurgents have changed their approach to reduce the number of head-on contacts. Caught in the middle, a worrying number of civilians are being killed. -Jason Motlagh (Jun 26, '07)

COMMENT
Finding lessons in Gaza's bloodshed
The Fatah-Hamas strife is a decades-old tragedy. But it need not be endlessly replayed if ordinary Palestinians are given a free voice - not one dictated by the US and Israel. -Ramzy Baroud (Jun 26, '07)

The strange story of MiG-31s for Syria
A Moscow business daily claims that Russia wants to sell top-of-the-line MiG-31 jet fighters to Syria. Previous reports of arms sales from this publication have to be taken with some skepticism, but the MiG-31 story has a ring of truth. The aircraft has special capabilities that make it ideal for countries worried about a US air assault - countries like Syria and Iran. (Jun 25, '07)

Russia's tango with Tehran
Russia realizes it may have overreached in its recent balancing act in the Middle East. It has treated Iran shabbily, to Washington's delight. Now, with Tehran beginning to "engage" Washington, Moscow realizes that it must get its act together with Iran, the regional power of growing consequence, or deal with the US from a position of weakness. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun 25, '07)

Iran-UK relations benighted, again
The decision this month to bestow a knighthood on author Salman Rushdie, who had earlier been forced into hiding by a fatwa issued by the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, has raised tensions between London and Tehran - and for numerous reasons, relations between the two were already at a low ebb. (Jun 25, '07)

Neo-cons put their spin on US-funded media
With neo-conservative dogma on the wane in the Pentagon and US State Department, its proponents have gained control of the weapons in the "war of ideas" - US government-funded and supported media outlets. (Jun 25, '07)

All roads leading to Pakistan
Pakistan is uniquely placed - geographically and politically - to affect the outcome of Anglo-American strategy for Iran and Central Asia. A flurry of visits by high-ranking US officials to Islamabad is thus no coincidence, nor is the fact that influential figures in the US and Britain are arguing that Pakistan's legitimate interests in Afghanistan must be accommodated. On the ground, this means that maverick Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's phone could be ringing off the hook. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun 22, '07)

COMMENT
Putting all the eggs in Fatah's basket
Israel's and the United States' new strategy of putting all their support behind Fatah and letting Hamas stew in Gaza is a mistake. The best choice would be to let Hamas try ruling Gaza while rebuilding bridges to the two Palestinian camps. But the Hamas rebels must also demonstrate they are adept at more than just making war and martyrs. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun 22, '07)

Iran: Conflicting claims reveal US rift
The evidence that Iran is arming the Taliban isn't as "irrefutable" as some US officials are claiming, says the US NATO commander in Afghanistan. He points to more likely sources for the arms, such as drugs and weapons smugglers. The anti-Iran language used by the accusers points to Vice President Dick Cheney, who would like nothing more than an invasion of Iran before his boss leaves office. - Gareth Porter (Jun 21, '07)

Taliban losing the will to talk
A British-led initiative to engage the Taliban in Helmand province in peace talks proved successful. Unfortunately, NATO forces took advantage of the lull to launch a major offensive. Fighting is now as heavy as ever, and has spread. The Taliban are fast losing any desire for further dialogue. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jun 21, '07)

Tony Blair as Middle East czar
Britain's soon-to-be ex-prime minister Tony Blair could have a leading role as a "special envoy" backed by the White House to try to make peace among Palestinians and Israel. The main strategy would be to build up Fatah in the West Bank and let Hamas stew in its own juices in Gaza. But will any effort that ignores Hamas have a chance of succeeding? - Jim Lobe (Jun 21, '07)

Taliban put up a new fight
Since the death of a key commander last month, the Taliban have become more elusive adversaries as military control has devolved to numerous semi-independent field commanders spread across large areas. At the same time, the "peace route" with Pakistan has become a non-starter. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jun 20, '07)

Turkey flirts with the Iraq quagmire
Turkey's saber-rattling against Kurds in its southeast and against rebels in frontier areas within Iraq is popular with the public, but could have dire, long-term consequences for Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq if fully realized. Instead of quashing calls for an independent Kurdish state, it could ignite a movement of pan-Kurdish solidarity. (Jun 20, '07)

Appeal for a 'Just Security' US policy
With a clear eye on the 2008 presidential contest, a liberal think-tank in Washington has proposed a new "just security" policy for the US that, among other things, calls for substantial cuts in defense expenditures. But is there a popular groundswell for sharply lower defense spending, and would any of the Democratic Party candidates heed it if there were? - Jim Lobe (Jun 20, '07)

GATES' WAY FORWARD, Part 2
A clean sweep
The retirement of the chairman of the US military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter Pace, completes the "clean sweep" of the senior leadership that marked the tenure of former secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld. Since the swearing in of Rumsfeld's successor - Secretary of Defense Robert Gates - nearly every major senior military officer responsible for the war in Iraq has been replaced. - Mark Perry (Jun 19, '07)
This is the conclusion of a two-part article.

 Part 1: After Rumsfeld, a new dawn?

Iran: Blowback, detainee-style
The Bush administration adopted the word "detainee" to deal with suspected terrorist captives who, it argued, should be subject to extra-legal treatment as part of the "war on terror". Now this is being turned against American citizens, in this case four Iranian-Americans jailed in Iran. Tom Engelhardt, in his introduction to this article by Karen J Greenberg, places the "detainee" issue in the broader context of Iran-US relations. (Jun 19, '07)

US losing ground through tribal allies
The US military's attempts to win hearts and minds of tribal leaders in Iraq's bloody al-Anbar province with armor, arms, vehicles and cash have taken a deadly toll. Instead of reducing violence, the divide-and-conquer strategy has increased resistance to the US occupation and increased tensions within the local community. - Ali al-Fadhily (Jun 19, '07)

A political revival in Afghanistan
Veteran Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan is opening offices across the country as a part of its political revival - a move that is believed to have led to the assassination of a leading HIA official. The group is unfazed: "The government cannot gag us," its president, Abdul Hadi Argundwal, tells Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jun 19, '07)

The perils of 'one size fits all'
To the uninformed, Hamas and al-Qaeda are, for all practical purposes, one and the same. Not so, writes Sami Moubayed. Some stalwarts of Hamas might be influenced by al-Qaeda, but this does not mean the movement as a whole is allied to, or influenced by, the doctrine of Osama bin Laden. Hamas has its own agenda aimed at Israel. (Jun 18, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
Levitate the Pentagon
The year was 1967, and Americans were advised to turn on, tune in and drop out. Forty years later, the slogan might as well be turn off, tune out and drop dead. The flower children missed an opportunity to levitate the Pentagon, and now the only way to stop the insanity of Iraq, and probably soon Iran, is a thorough mobilization of public opinion. - Pepe Escobar (Jun 18, '07)

Muqtada: The born-again mullah
The comparative restraint that followed the latest bombings of the symbolic Golden Dome in Samarra may reflect the growing stature of Muqtada al-Sadr. He blamed the bombings on the all-purpose villains, the Americans, but methodically continued his drive to become the inevitable pan-Iraqi leader. - Sami Moubayed (Jun 15, '07)

To die under the wings of B-52s
Philip Smucker returns to Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province, where, in 2001, he found many young Pashtuns ready to die under the wings of American B-52s. Four years later he is back, and finds that there are still many ready for jihad in Afghanistan. (Jun 15, '07)

The wars that oil the Pentagon's engine
The Pentagon is guzzling gasoline like there is no tomorrow. According to one report, 53 million liters daily, more than Switzerland's consumption, is needed to keep America's war machine humming. But with global oil supplies likely to peak soon, the US military needs to make some critical decisions. - Michael T Klare (Jun 15, '07)

COMMENT
A little bending can greatly benefit Iran
Despite threats of tougher sanctions, Iran can use good faith diplomacy and a little flexibility to avoid paying a terrible price for its refusal to halt its nuclear enrichment program. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun 15, '07)

Another success for Detachment 88
Dollar for dollar, the few million spent on the training and advice that the US gives to Indonesia to support that government's anti-terror group, Detachment 88, give better value in the "war on terror" than any other program. Detachment 88 proved its worth again recently by arresting the alleged leader of Jemaah Islamiyah. Yet Congress is debating cutting off funding. - Bill Guerin (Jun 15, '07)

A voice for the Afghan insurgency
Al-Haaj Farooq Hussaini does not pull his punches. The fiery right-hand man of the ousted governor of Herat province admits to stirring up support for Afghanistan's insurgency, and to rallying people to rise up against foreign forces. The Sunni religious leader is also deep into local issues, including what he calls taking retribution against minority Shi'ites. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jun 14, '07)

A general in God's patriotic army
It's not just secular neo-cons pushing for more war in the Middle East. They are cheered on by a set of religious fundamentalists eager for Armageddon. One of the generals in God's patriotic army is Mike Evans, whose newest book appears at the top of the New York Times best-seller list thanks to tireless efforts of the right-wing propaganda machine. (Jun 14, '07)

A grand bargain Russia might just refuse
The idea has been floated: Washington offers Moscow a grand bargain under which the US delays deploying its missile defense system in Europe, and the Russians agree to back stronger sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program. The view from Iran and Russia, both concerned over possible Turkish adventurism in Iraq, is very different. A security accord among Iran, Russia and Turkey appears a better option. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun 13, '07)

Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran
The recent calls by prominent American neo-conservatives - and even former vice-presidential candidate Joseph Lieberman - for a military attack on Iran have a whiff of desperation to them. Is it a deliberate attempt to undermine the diplomatic process that has been set in motion? - Trita Parsi (Jun 13, '07)

The struggle for Kirkuk turns ugly
Iraq's embattled prime minister Nuri al-Maliki has formed an alliance with the Kurds, including giving them a free hand in Kirkuk. This seems to have stilled talk of a coup in Baghdad. But it poses dangers, as a referendum ceding Kirkuk to Iraqi Kurdistan would make Turkish intervention even more likely, and further inflame Iraq. - Sami Moubayed (Jun 13, '07)

SPEAKING FREELY
Spinning the Korean model
The fact that US President George W Bush is considering adopting the "Korean model" in Iraq is highly disturbing. As any student of modern history knows, for four decades South Korea was characterized by an entrenched US military providing support for a succession of brutal totalitarian regimes. - Beverly Darling (Jun 13, '07)

NATO fights on all fronts in Afghanistan
It's official: the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan is worse than it was a year ago. But it did not need the International Committee of the Red Cross to state the obvious. The NATO alliance is well aware of the problems. Finding solutions is another matter. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jun 13, '07)

Aussie posse gunning for Gloria's foes
Every sheriff needs a posse, and riding shotgun for the US in East Asia is its best mate, Australia. A new military agreement with the Philippines indicates Australia's eagerness to play a more assertive role in the region, while for the Philippine government it's an opportunity to have others help with the dirty work of wiping out local dissent (also known as waging "war on terror"). - Herbert Docena (Jun 12, '07)

Gambit to link Iran to the Taliban backfires
Even the US defense secretary has rejected media reports that Iran has been "caught red-handed" supplying arms to the Taliban. The orchestrators of the campaign, who are close to US Vice President Dick Cheney, also overlook the unlikely possibility that Tehran would reverse its anti-Taliban stance. A new plan will be needed to conjure up the specter of a regionwide Iranian offensive against US forces. - Gareth Porter (Jun 12, '07)

Gates overhauls Rumsfeld's Pentagon
US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates took a big step toward completing the overhaul of the post-Donald Rumsfeld military by denying General Peter Pace the customary second term as chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Some neo-conservatives are wondering whether the new defense chief is a Democrat in disguise. - Jim Lobe (Jun 12, '07)

INTERVIEW
The Father of the Taliban
Maulana Sami ul-Haq
Many students from Haq's famous madrassa in Pakistan played a significant role in the establishment of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, but "they only went to the rescue of the war-torn country", Haq explains. And the veteran politician tells Imtiaz Ali that the only hope for Pakistan is a bloodless revolution that will turn the country into a real sharia state. (Jun 12, '07)

Turkey not done with the Kurds
Despite the Turkish military becoming more aggressive in its push to be allowed to pursue Kurdish insurgents operating in Iraq, both the military and the government know that consolidating political power in Ankara is the overriding priority. There is always the  danger, though, that the momentum of events on the ground will overtake the politicians. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun 11, '07)

Selling Kirkuk for a mess of potage
It seems like a pact between devils, but Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki reportedly returned from the Kurdish north with a deal - a Kurdish Kirkuk in exchange for a free hand for Shi'ites in the south. It is a further reflection of the crisis that the US faces in Iraq and shows there is no single group capable of achieving control of the ever-worsening situation. - Ali al-Fadhily (Jun 11, '07)

Iraq: The mess that was to be
Everyone has heard of the intelligence assessments of weapons of mass destruction that underlay the US invasion of Iraq. Only recently have two other reports, addressing the consequences of invasion, been declassified. The assessments support the proposition that the expedition in Iraq always was a fool's errand. - Paul R Pillar (Jun 11, '07)

The Iranian bomb in a MAD world
Tehran's response to US pressure, despite public denials, has been to play the single card that history has stamped "effective" since 1949 - raising the specter of nuclear arms. It is a classic act of self-defense guaranteed to spread nuclear arms to other countries in a MAD - mutually assured destruction - world where Catch-22 is the nuclear rule of the day. - Dilip Hiro (Jun 11, '07)

A Taliban surrender and a mass attack
The face of the insurgency in northwestern Afghanistan is constantly changing. Just on Saturday, as 40 Taliban surrendered with their arms, mass attacks took place on police outposts. And with Iran reported to be backing independent Shi'ite groups, the situation can only become more complex - and chaotic. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jun 11, '07)

Everlasting US pyramids in Iraqi sands
President George W Bush's touting of a "South Korea model" for Iraq has been dismissed as an historical grotesquerie. But the model - up to 40,000 troops on a few mega-bases for decades to come in a calming Iraq - shouldn't be laughed off, and it is not something stumbled on in post-"surge" desperation. It's the imperial fantasy, America's pyramids, that has been on top of the Bush administration's agenda from the first shock-and-awe moment. - Tom Engelhardt (Jun 8, '07)

An insurgency beyond the Taliban
People in the Shindand district of Herat province in Afghanistan are getting angry. One of their villages was recently heavily bombed by NATO; scores of civilians were killed. "There are no Taliban or al-Qaeda in Shindand," local strongman Haji Nasru tells Syed Saleem Shahzad. But if this NATO aggression continues, he warns, men will join the insurgency. (Jun 8, '07)

BOOK REVIEW
More pro-Bush than Bush
In Defense of the Bush Doctrine by Robert G Kaufman
Not many people defend the Bush Doctrine these days. This new book gives Bushism a spirited, if not very convincing, defense. Considering that many neo-conservatives have abandoned any attempt to argue that the Iraq war was well managed, it is surprising to come across a reasonably thoughtful author still willing to defend US President George W Bush to the hilt. - Colin Dueck (Jun 8, '07)

Iran forces the issue in Afghanistan
Iran's deportation of more than 100,000 Afghan refugees in the past six weeks - more than 1,000 a day are still streaming across the border - is a carefully calculated move. On the one hand it relieves pressure in Iran's restive Sunni province, while on the other it helps the Taliban reopen a front in northwestern Afghanistan. The US has another pressing reason to speak to Tehran. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jun 7, '07)

Al-Qaeda spark for an Iran-US fire
The Bush administration is apparently prepared to use an al-Qaeda attack on the United States as a reason to attack Iran. This plays directly into al-Qaeda's hands. - Gareth Porter (Jun 6, '07)

Al-Qaeda's American-style message
Speaking bare-knuckled English, US-born Adam Gadahn is al-Qaeda's sledgehammer to drive home the spike of Osama bin Laden's messages for Americans. Shorn of bin Laden's Koranic references and rhetoric, the warning Gadahn delivers is unequivocal: surrender or you will be attacked again domestically. - Michael Scheuer (Jun 6, '07)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Financing the imperial armed forces
Add it all up, and the US will spend nearly $1 trillion on defense, intelligence gathering and homeland security this year, even though it faces no credible state enemy. The amazing thing is that nobody dares question this extravagance, not even the leading Democratic presidential candidates. - Robert Dreyfuss (Jun 6, '07)

COMMENTARY
Yes, Rambo, you get to win this time
The truth about the Vietnam War has been flushed down an Orwellian "memory hole", and now it's time to win a war. Hey, everybody, let's get Iraq! - Julian Delasantellis (Jun 5, '07)

Anger builds in besieged Fallujah 
A recent spike in attacks against Iraqi and US forces in and around the city of Fallujah has prompted harsh measures by the US military, including a curfew. And as has become the norm in Fallujah, civilians continue to pay a high price despite the security measures that are supposed to protect them. - Ali al-Fadhily (Jun 5, '07)

Turkish threat echoes across Iraq
In a bid to shore up failing support, embattled Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has given his full backing to the country's Kurds in a potentially disastrous confrontation with Turkey, whose troops are massed on the border. On the regional front, the move could be political suicide, as Iran and Syria, key players in resolving Iraq's problems, also have Kurdish concerns. - Sami Moubayed (Jun 4, '07)

Needed in Kurdistan: Charm offensive
Kurdistan, the one success in the Iraq debacle, is precariously balanced, but the Kurds seem oblivious to this. One small provocation could send Turkish troops into northern Iraq. The Iraqi Kurds should not arrogantly assume that their current privileged position protects them from the vagaries of both US and Turkish policies. (Jun 4, '07)

Bush's Korea specter in Iraq
For more than 50 years, the US has deployed troops to Korea, and now the White House - in its latest rejection of the Baker-Hamilton commission's call to drop the idea of permanent US bases in Iraq - is touting a "Korean model" for the country. "I think it's a great idea," says the field commander of US forces in Iraq. Many observers in the US, as well as in Iraq itself (not to mention South Korea), disagree. - Jim Lobe (Jun 4, '07)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Words in a time of war
More than any other, the Bush administration has reached for its dictionaries to redefine reality to its own benefit. Yet, almost six years after the September 11, 2001, attacks, the US is in a world in which reality, sometimes absurdly, sometimes grimly beyond comprehension, outraces any words the Bush administration may propose for it. - Mark Danner (Jun 1, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
Welcome to the summer of hate
Forty years ago, when The Beatles released their Sgt Pepper's album, the world seemed to be singing in tune. It marked the beginning of the Summer of Love, even if it included Vietnam War escalation. Today, we have Patti Smith singing covers of The Beatles, Iraq instead of Vietnam, and a possible attack on Iran. Call it the summer of hate. - Pepe Escobar (Jun 1, '07)

A dirge for the 'surge'
Initial gains made by the "surge" in Iraq - improved security and a reduction in the death toll in Baghdad - are eroding at an accelerating rate, while the strategy's aggressive deployment of troops to vulnerable neighborhood outposts has resulted in significantly higher US casualties. Now the talk is of reducing troop levels. - Jim Lobe (Jun 1, '07)

May 2007