By July-August 2001, it was clear that something dramatic was about to happen. Pepe Escobar, our "Roving Eye", was
traveling in Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan. The rumor was that US forces were about to use Pakistan to launch a raid into Afghanistan. Escobar's article, published by Asia Times Online on August 30, 2001, was headlined  Get Osama! Now! Or else ... Our Karachi correspondent, Syed Saleem Shazad, was meanwhile filing articles like Osama bin Laden: The thorn in Pakistan's flesh (August 22, 2001) ...

The US says that time is running out for Baghdad to cooperate with UN arms inspectors. But many other countries disagree, saying the inspectors should have more time and that there is no need to disarm Iraq by force. The dispute  arises from different perceptions of the immediacy and size of the threat of Iraq's suspected weapons programs. In this series, experts assess the danger of Baghdad's nuclear weapons and missiles, as well as its biological and chemical weapons. (Jan 31, '03)

  

  

The power and the price War and the military-industrial complex After World War II, the role of defense spending in the US shifted from domestic economic stimulant to global geopolitical weapon. But while Ronald Reagan successfully used Star Wars to bankrupt the USSR, the nature of armaments has fundamentally changed with the arrival of biological and chemical weapons. Terrorism can only be fought with the removal of injustice, not by developing anti-missile defense shields and smart bombs. - Henry C K Liu (Jan 30, '03) The law of the jungle Blanket denunciations of US preemptive strategy fail to realize that the strategy is not the cause of international chaos, but rather the logical outcome of the failure of international multilateralism that for too long invoked peace but invited war. - Stephen Blank (Jan 30, '03)

OPINION
Why the US doesn't need the UN
As President George W Bush made quite clear in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, the US considers the regime of Saddam Hussein in clear breach of  United Nations resolutions and reserves the right to act on its own in defense of its national security and interests. And the UN certainly won't be needed in any post-war developments; how about letting the Iraqis govern themselves for a change? - Marc Erikson (Jan 29, '03)

THE ROVING EYE

In an effort to persuade a skeptical world, the Bush administration has released a report titled "Apparatus of Lies: Saddam's Disinformation and Propaganda, 1990-2003". But propaganda remains a matter of the beholder's eye, as David Isenberg argues in examining the document's factual allegations and logical foundations. Meanwhile Ehsan Ahrari finds the document's most important argument in the chapter "Exploiting Islam", and its most important readership in the global Muslim ummah. (Jan 28, '03)

   

   

Gadding with Gaddafi
In today's world, it's no longer enough to say that you're against terrorism or the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. What Western intelligence agencies want to know is what you have, what you want, what you buy and what you can sell. It's called capability-based threat assessment, and it's putting Muammar Gaddafi and his 15-year-old Libyan weapons program on the regime change radar screen.- Ehsan Ahrari (Jan 23, '03)

Who will cry for Saddam this time?
The last time that the US fought a war with Iraq, several Arab nations, including Jordan, openly sided with Saddam Hussein. So did their people, many of whom bought Saddam paraphernalia in honor of "the liberator". How things change: This time around, says one Amman shopkeeper, "Even the few Iraqis who still come here are fed up with Saddam." (Jan 23, '03)

ANALYSIS
The net closes on Pakistan
The unexpected outburst by Pakistan's President General Pervez Musharraf that his country could be next on the hit list after Iraq has raised many eyebrows - as well as fears in Pakistan that the US is trying to curb the country's nuclear program. Which would make India very happy indeed. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 22, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
Arab impotence in the face of war
As the US moves inexorably toward war in Iraq, the 21 members of the Arab League haven't even been able to convene a meeting among themselves to rally against a war that they all view as an exercise in blatant Middle Eastern colonialism. - Pepe Escobar (Jan 22, '03)

Iraqi oil: One big sticky mess
With 112 billion barrels of proven (and perhaps another 100 billion in unproven) oil reserves, Iraq sits on a staggering amount of potential revenue. But for those sitting in Washington thinking through postwar scenarios for the country, Iraqi oil is not so much a solution as the source of all kinds of problems. - David Isenberg (Jan 21, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
Pharaohs and liberators
Forget about Saddam Hussein going into exile - it just isn't going to happen, according to the word in Cairo. So what is going to happen is that when the US-led war on Iraq takes place, the myriad militant jihadi organizations around the world will focus all of their attention on attacking US interests. - Pepe Escobar (Jan 20, '03)

Iraq: Thinking through the aftermath
As the world obsesses over whether the United States will invade Iraq, the US military is already thinking through the aftermath and, in the process, coming up with some surprising conclusions and strategies - including a possible postwar role for some units of Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard. - David Isenberg (Jan 20, '03)

ANALYSIS
The ghost of Lebanon past
In June 1982, the Israeli army invaded Lebanon and found itself greeted with flowers and celebrations by the persecuted Shi'ite minority in the south. The party, as events proved, was premature. And now, some in the region with long memories are wondering whether history is repeating itself in Iraq. - Jim Lobe (Jan 17, '03)

The odds of Iraq-inspired terror reprisal
In the event of war in Iraq, world leaders are assessing the possibility of terrorist reprisals in the region and elsewhere. Fortunately, given Saddam Hussein's historical estrangement from militant Islam and the stepped-up security measures in the US, Canada and Europe, the odds of a terror strike in those areas seem low. A weak link, however, might be found in Asia. - B Raman (Jan 17, '03)

Iraqi opposition: From conflict to unity?
The relationship between the Iraqi opposition and the regime of Saddam Hussein has gone through various phases, from cooperation to conflict to repression. A key question now is whether the opposition has achieved the unity, determination and ability to develop, with US help, a new democratic regime in the country. (Jan 17, '03)

Saddam Hussein and the highway blues
Ever wonder what happened to Ugandan dictator Idi Amin? Today he lives - quite comfortably, say most reports - in a Jeddah hotel, a permanent guest of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Will such be Saddam's fate as well? The odds are against 1) a country agreeing to take him; 2) him agreeing to go; and 3) the US letting it happen, all at the same time. But as the pressure in the Middle East builds, that endless highway may start looking better and better. - Ian Urbina (Jan 16, '03)

Afghanistan: The war gathers momentum
As guerrilla activities against foreign military forces in Afghanistan increase, a concerted pamphlet and radio campaign is also under way to win over the hearts and minds of ordinary Afghans to rise up against the "invaders". - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 16, '03)

Reluctant Turkey edges toward US camp
In a direct reversal of the situation in the 1991 Gulf War, Turkey's generals are champing at the bit to join in the action with the United States against Saddam Hussein, while it is the government that is dragging its feet on opening up its country to thousands of US troops. But as is the case so often in Turkey, the military will likely have its way. - K Gajendra Singh (Jan 15, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
Smoking guns and the dogs of war
UN weapons inspectors have visited more than 200 sites in Iraq without producing evidence of an Iraqi weapon of mass destruction. Which means absolutely nothing; with 250,000 American troops in place around Iraq and patience running thin in Washington, expect a gun, smoking or not, to come to light. But what happens after that is not so clear-cut.  - Pepe Escobar (Jan 15, '03)

Pakistani backlash to FBI raids
As the Federal Bureau of Investigation, in collaboration with Pakistani security officials, continues its wave of arrests of suspected al-Qaeda fighters in Pakistan, opposition is mounting to what many see as an intrusion by the US into their country, and they are not planning to take it lying down. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 14, '03)

Intelligent reform of US intelligence
As the US undertakes reform of its intelligence establishment, it is clear that what worked (or didn't) in the past will no longer be sufficient, and that for a time-tested model of a workable division of law enforcement, internal intelligence, foreign intelligence, military intelligence and analysis, US lawmakers might usefully look to Europe. - Alexander Casella (Jan 14, '03)

US-Indonesia military ties closer
As early as this week, the US Congress may decide to restore a military training program for Indonesia's military despite uncertainties about its human-rights record or evidence that suggests its involvement in the killing of two US citizens. - Tim Shorrock (Jan 14, '03)

Madrassas: A make-believe world
For many, the word madrassa has become synonymous with Islamic fanaticism, rather than religious school. Which is to misunderstand the essence of the seminaries, although they certainly have an influence on many young and impressionable minds. - Aijazz Ahmed (Jan 13, '03)

History awaits China's Korea move
Half a century ago, the future of Sino-US relations was cast in Korea. Now, once again, Sino-US relations are at a crossroads - in Korea. The decisions Beijing makes today about what to do about North Korea could well set the scene for another half-century. - Francesco Sisci (Jan 13, '03)

The unreality of imminent war
Even as US media are filled with images of troops embracing their families before embarking for the Gulf, the sense of inevitable war is mixed with a strange air of unreality, as the crisis in Pyongyang pushes Iraq to the sideline of the foreign policy debate in the US. - Jim Lobe (Jan 13, '03)

Japan could 'go nuclear' in months
As if the specter of a nuclear North Korea weren't enough, the Japanese are talking openly about mounting their own nuclear defenses against their belligerent neighbor. They have the missiles; they have the fissile materials and the technical sophistication. All they need is the will, and Pyongyang may just provide the incentive. - Marc Erikson (Jan 13, '03)

Libya tries to come in from the cold
Trivia question: Which national leader was first in the world to issue an Interpol arrest warrant for Osama bin Laden - way back in 1998? Answer: Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, one of the world's longest-serving pariah leaders, who in recent years has been telegraphing his desire to be re-accepted into polite Western society. What he offers in return is truly valuable intelligence - but he has yet to win over a skeptical West. - Ian Urbina (Jan 10, '03)

SPENGLER
The 'Ring' and the remnants of the West
No better guide exists to the mood and morals of the United States than the ongoing release of the film version of J R R Tolkien's The Lord of the Rings. Boorish as the new American Empire might seem, it is an anti-empire populated by reluctant heroes, much like Tolkien's Hobbits. Under pressure, though, it will respond with a fierceness and cohesion that will surprise its adversaries. (Jan 10, '03)

North Korea: Beijing won't play peacemaker
In a rare display of its feelings on the North Korea nuclear crisis, Beijing has dispelled hopes that it can play a major peacemaking role in the standoff between Washington and Pyongyang. (Jan 10, '03)

Pakistan: Fissures in an unnatural alliance
The fundamental conflict of interests and underlying ideologies between the United States and Pakistan is manifested in the recent skirmishes between forces of the two countries on the Afghanistan border, and an escalation of tensions is inevitable. (Jan 10, '03)

A bloody destiny for Pakistan's border
Given the historically warlike nature of the Waziri clans living on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan; given that west Pakistan is the power base of a strengthening anti-US political coalition; and given the passions unleashed by a New Year's Day gun battle involving US troops that left several dead, and a madrassa bombed - given all this, residents of the region believe the prospect of further bloodshed is practically assured. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 9, '03)

COMMENTARY
US ties weigh heavily in Pakistan
While constantly being urged by the United States to do more in the war on terror, Pakistan, in the wake of the recent clash with US troops on the border with Afghanistan, is beginning to wonder just what it stands to gain by sticking with Washington. And the feeling in Washington seems to be mutual. (Jan 9, '03)

Militants join forces for global struggle
As the US expands its military presence in Afghanistan and Central Asia, militant opposition grows and becomes more organized. Now it is reported that leaders of Islamic groups from across Asia may be planning a meeting soon in Khartoum, Sudan, to coordinate anti-Western campaigns throughout the world. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 8, '03)

Through the valley of the shadow of death
When you bandy a phrase like "war on terror" about, it tends to lose its meaning. Not, however, in the tiny Kashmiri village of Darhal, where townsfolk live in continual fear and where the grief has yet to diminish after the brutal recent killings of three teenage girls, innocent victims of a meaningless phrase. - Praveen Swami (Jan 8, '03)

Pennywise commitment to Arab democracy
The US State Department's new US-Middle East Partnership Initiative is chock full of laudable goals for the support of Arab democracy, but with a total allocation of just US$29 million, the program seems unlikely to amount to more than a public relations exercise. - David Isenberg (Jan 8, '03)

Pyongyang vs the world Who is the more foolhardy in the standoff between Pyongyang and Washington? The answer is not as obvious as some have suggested. Phar Kim Beng argues that in its own belligerent way born of half a century of isolation, North Korea has used the current nuclear crisis to shore up its own legitimacy at home and abroad.     The genius of North Korean strategy  Gary LaMoshi examines the chronic US failure to understand the importance of face when dealing with Asians.    The straight shooter and loss of face  (Jan 7, '03)  The test for Chinese diplomacy China's emerging status as a great power is at a crossroads. China is positioned to play a critical role in defusing the Korea crisis, but to do so, Beijing may need to abandon its traditional passive posture in favor of a more active diplomatic role. - Phillip C Saunders and Jing-dong Yuan (Jan 7, '03) Kim Jong-il out-Saddams Saddam Saddam Hussein must be green with envy at the way Kim Jong-il is holding up his end of the axis of evil. But the Bush administration will be seeing red as Kim mocks US military might. - Jim Lobe (Jan 6, '03)

DynCorp: Afghan Security 'R' Us
During the 1991 Persian Gulf war, one in every 50 persons on the battlefield worked for a private contractor; by the time of Bosnia, that ratio had climbed to one in 10. And now, US-based private  contractor DynCorp has received its highest-visibility task yet: ensuring the security of Afghan President Hamid Karzai. But not everyone believes it wise, or right, to allow a private firm to do the work of government. - David Isenberg (Jan 3, '03)

Baghdad: Linchpin of a new economic order
Multiple choice: The economic effects of regime change in Iraq might include (a) The neutering of OPEC, (b) The destruction of the Russian oil producing sector, (c) The implosion of the Russian budget, (d) A bonanza of de-nationalized Iraqi oil concessions for US-based multinationals, (e) A cascade of de-nationalized oil concessions around the globe or (f) A fundamental re-ordering of the global economy, including all of the above. (Jan 3, '03)

Riyadh: Linchpin of a new religious order
The US troops now pouring into the Persian Gulf region are not there solely to achieve Iraqi regime change. Arguably their more important task is to serve as the visible muscle in the long-term battle between the West and a more elusive foe than even Saddam: the Wahhabi branch of Islam, enemy of modernism and natural rival to Western democracy. And Wahhabism is based not in Iraq, but Saudi Arabia. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 3, '03)

CHECHEN CONFLICT
No end to the bleeding
In failing to distinguish between those genuinely seeking independence for Chechnya and those with pan-Islamic objectives for the territory, Russia is making the problem intractable, B Raman writes. Hooman Peimani argues that Moscow's resort to the extensive use of force will only leave its objectives unachievable, all of which is taking an horrific toll on Chechnya's economy and environment, reports Sergei Blagov. (Jan 3, '03)

   Moscow's muddled objectives
   Iron fist leaves no room to move
   Environmental disaster in the making


ANALYSIS
Why Iraq matters more than North Korea
Iraq likely doesn't have nukes, and the United States wants to make war on Iraq. North Korea probably does have them, and the United States wants to resolve that row with diplomacy. It's odd, isn't it? But there is more to Washington's strategy than meets the eye. - Marc Erikson (Jan 2, '03)

North Korea: Such a nuisance
It has no oil, or strategic resources of any kind. It has no economic clout. It has no global or even regional influence, and no friends. All it has is an obsolete Cold War-era nuclear saber to rattle, and a pitiful population of 20 million to hide behind. Yet Pyongyang's leadership, for all its threats and posturing, is only showing its weakness to the world. - Francesco Sisci (Jan 2, '03)

COMMENTARY
Pakistan bent on proliferation path
The nuclear nexus between Pakistan and North Korea is well documented, and now Islamabad has agreed to bury the hatchet with Iran and exchange military delegations, with the obvious implications of deeper and more serious ties. Which raises the question ... just what exactly does Pakistan think it is doing? - Stephen Blank (Jan 2, '03)

   South Asia's escalating nuclear rivalry

Dark omens in south Waziristan
The recent skirmishes involving US and Pakistani security forces on the Afghan border with Pakistan serve as a reminder that the volatile region, far from becoming more settled with the American presence, remains a haven and a launching pad for al-Qaeda and Taliban remnants. - B Raman (Jan 2, '03)

US on Hong Kong: Calling the kettle black
A leading US newspaper has deplored "Hong Kong's current drive to enact insidious security legislation that threatens its people's freedoms", and George W Bush has reportedly phoned Jiang Zemin to express concern over Hong Kong's proposed national security law. That would be the same George Bush who signed into law the draconian USA Patriot Act. - Henry C K Liu (Jan 2, '03)

Dec 24-Nov 11, '02